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Nomura analysts were equally downbeat on China's economic outlook. Most economists see downside risk to Chinese growth but they don't expect a recession. It was the slowest growth since December 2022, and shows just how much of a challenge authorities face as they try to make consumption the key driver of future economic growth. MORE STIMULUSAsian stocks stalled at one-month lows, the yuan hit a 9-month nadir while the dollar held broadly firm after the weak Chinese data and latest policy easing measures. But we do need to lower our expectations for China's growth."
Persons: Julian Evans, Pritchard, Nomura, Nie Wen, Robert Carnell, Liangping Gao, Albee Zhang, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Capital Economics, Retail, Hwabao Trust, Investment, Reuters, ING, NBS, Nomura, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, Beijing, China, Asia, Pacific
Asian stocks were down and the dollar held firm after the weak Chinese data and latest policy easing measures. Investment in the property sector tumbled 8.5% year-on-year in January-July, after shrinking 7.9% in January-June, extending its fall for the 17th consecutive month. Demand for the property sector, once a pillar of economic growth, has remained weak in recent weeks. The nationwide survey-based jobless rate climbed slightly to 5.3% from 5.2% in June. After the youth jobless rate rose to record high of 21.3% in June, NBS spokesperson Fu Linghui said at Tuesday's press conference the bureau will suspend publishing the survey-based jobless rate for the 16-24 years old from August, adding China will further improve its employment statistics.
Persons: Julian Evans, Pritchard, Bruce Pang, Jones Lang Lasalle, Fu Linghui, Albee Zhang, Liangping Gao, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Retail, Capital Economics, Jones, Investment, Communist Party, NBS, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China
On a quarterly basis, GDP stalled, coming in at 0.0% in the fourth quarter, compared with growth of 3.9% in July-September. For 2022, GDP expanded 3.0%, badly missing the official target of "around 5.5%" and braking sharply from 8.4% growth in 2021. Other indicators for December such as retail sales and factory output, also released along with GDP data, beat expectations but were still weak. At an agenda-setting meeting in December, top leaders pledged to focus on stabilising the economy in 2023 and step up policy support to ensure key targets are hit. China is likely to aim for economic growth of at least 5% in 2023 to keep a lid on unemployment, policy sources said.
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