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Over the two trading days since, the market has tried to second-guess the pace at which the BOJ wants yields to move, while the BOJ has run special bond-buying operations to cap yields. "There is only a very, very small possibility of a sudden or very steep rise in JGB yields, because too many people want to buy the bonds. The maximum yield investors demanded was 0.6%, just 10 basis points (bps) above the previous policy cap. The promise of an extra 10-20 bps of JGB yield means 10-year JGBs hedged from dollars into yen can yield upwards of 6%. As per BOJ data, lifers and pension funds held roughly 26% of a 1,132 trillion yen ($7.93 trillion) JGB market at the end of 2019.

Persons: It's, we've, Ales Koutny, Rong Ren Goh, BOJ, Tomoya Masanao, Masanao, Rae Wee, Tom Westbrook, Harry Robertson, Alun John, Vidya Ranganathan, Himani Sarkar Organizations: Bank of Japan, JGBs, Vanguard Asset Management, Eastspring Investments, Foreigners, U.S, Nippon Life, Asia Pacific, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, TOKYO, United States, Europe, Singapore, JGBs, Belgian, Japan, PIMCO, Sydney, London

The research arm of BlackRock, the world's biggest asset manager, shifted its view on Japanese equities to neutral from underweight. "We are looking for more evidence of corporate reform to support the enthusiasm for its equity markets that has gripped foreign investors so far this year," wrote analysts at BlackRock Investment Institute, in its mid-year outlook report last week. "It's not the case that we've already seen the completion of offshore investors' quite aggressive investment in Japan equity markets," said Nomura's chief equity strategist for Japan, Yunosuke Ikeda. "Now, a lot of asset owners have decided just not to invest in China any more, and that's made Japan the top dog in Asia." Many analysts and investors, though, consider the declines a healthy and necessary retracement before the next leg higher, with 35,000 often touted as a target for this year as slower-moving foreign investors start to buy in size.

Persons: Nomura, It's, Yunosuke Ikeda, Archie Ciganer, Rowe Price, Ciganer, that's, Warren Buffett, Vikas Pershad, Kevin Buckland, Ankur Banerjee, Junko Fujita, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: Nikkei, BlackRock Investment Institute, Nomura Securities, Graphics, G Investments, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Japan, BlackRock, China, Asia, Tokyo, Singapore

That yen hoard has mostly been held as cash with the aim of ploughing into Japanese bonds when yields eventually turn higher. "We're all waiting for the end of YCC so we can buy JGBs," said a Japanese pension fund manager who requested anonymity as he is not authorized to speak to media. Japanese banks have ploughed money into overseas bonds, but insurance firms and pension funds have kept their powder dry. MARKETS WONT BLINKSuch is the positioning and inertia among long term Japanese investors that analysts expect markets to barely blink even if the BOJ plays for time this week. Lifers and pension funds say they have very little exposure to Japanese government bonds, so a surprise policy change won't hurt them either.

Persons: Androniki, Haruhiko Kuroda, Kazuo Ueda, Bart Wakabayashi, Hirofumi Suzuki, Suzuki, Kevin Buckland, Ankur Banerjee, Vidya Ranganathan Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of, Japan, Nippon Life Insurance, Sumitomo Life Insurance, Insurance, State, Thomson Locations: Japan, Tokyo, TOKYO, SINGAPORE, YCC, Singapore

However, Biden said the weapon was probably not fired by Russia, although the investigation was ongoing. According to U.S. officials, initial findings suggested that the missile that hit Poland had been fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian missile, the Associated Press said. "Right now, it's a bit of a tussle in the market as to how to price this risk," he added. Risk-sensitive Antipodean currencies recovered from earlier declines with Australian dollar last up 0.19% at $0.67685, while the kiwi was flat at $0.6158. "The currency market is stabilising, toying with the notion that this ... doesn't necessarily imply an escalation in the war, with NATO needing to get involved," said Rodrigo Catril, a senior currency strategist at National Australia Bank.

TOKYO, Nov 16 (Reuters) - The safe-haven U.S. dollar firmed in volatile trading on Wednesday as markets took stock of geopolitical risks following news of a Russian-made rocket striking NATO-member Poland. Russia denied it was responsible for the explosion but the report sparked turbulent trading overnight as fears of the war in Ukraine spilling over to its neighbors rattled investors. "The market is trying to size up the risk and what that really means," said Moh Siong Sim, currency strategist at Bank of Singapore. "Right now, it's a bit of a tussle in the market as to how to price this risk," he added. Risk-sensitive Antipodean currencies slipped, with Australian dollar down 0.09% versus the greenback at $0.675, while the kiwi fell 0.23% to $0.614.

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