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Growing hope for an economic soft landing is misplaced, economist Ken Rogoff wrote this week. The Harvard economist sees the runway for the economy in an "earthquake zone" in 2024. AdvertisementThere's little reason to be optimistic about a soft-landing, as the economy is set to land in an "earthquake zone" in 2024, according to top economist Ken Rogoff. Advertisement"Despite the widespread belief that the global economy is headed for a soft landing, recent trends offer little cause for optimism. The US also faces trouble as the national debt continues to surge and interest rates look poised to stay higher-for-longer.
Persons: Ken Rogoff, , Doom, Rogoff Organizations: Harvard, Service, Syndicate, International Monetary Fund, Fed, Federal Reserve, New York Fed, Cleveland Fed Locations: China, Europe, Ukraine, Russia
China's property troubles may slow the economy down, Nicholas Lardy, a China economy expert, told CNN. However, the issues will not create a financial crisis, he added. Even so, one Chinese economy expert thinks the crisis is unlikely to spill over into the broader economy. Advertisement Advertisement Watch: Ken Rogoff on the next financial crisis and the future of bitcoinChina's property sector has been gripped in a crisis since 2021 when property giant Evergrande ran into a liquidity crisis. The market was so hot that Chinese developers were taking on massive borrowings to build apartments ahead of demand.
Persons: Nicholas Lardy, it's, Ken Rogoff, Evergrande, Lardy, Lina Batarags Organizations: CNN, Service, Peterson Institute for International Economics Locations: China, Wall, Silicon
Opinion | How Do We Manage China’s Decline?
  + stars: | 2023-08-29 | by ( Bret Stephens | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +3 min
Optimists think the crisis won’t affect Western countries too badly because their exports to China account for a small share of their output. Real estate and its related sectors account for nearly 30 percent of China’s gross domestic product, according to a 2020 paper by the economists Ken Rogoff and Yuanchen Yang. Last month Donald Trump described the rule of China’s president, Xi Jinping, as “smart, brilliant, everything perfect.” The truth is closer to the opposite. China’s richest people have also left the country in increasing numbers during Xi’s tenure — a good indication of where they think their opportunities do and do not lie. President Biden was off the cuff but on the mark this month when he said of China’s leaders that “when bad folks have problems, they do bad things.” In other words, as China’s economic fortunes sink, the risks to Taiwan grow.
Persons: don’t, Optimists, Ken Rogoff, Yuanchen Yang, Donald Trump, Xi Jinping, Xi, , , Xi’s, Biden Locations: China, Taiwan, South China, United States, Ukraine, Russia, Beijing, Taiwan Strait
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Harvard economics professor Ken RogoffKen Rogoff, Harvard economics professor and former IMF chief economist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss China's economic crisis, why the 'debt supercycle' that came for the U.S. and Europe after the 2008 financial crisis could be knocking on China's door as it grapples with a brewing property crisis and growth slowdown, and more.
Persons: Ken Rogoff Ken Rogoff Organizations: Harvard, U.S Locations: Harvard, Europe
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina's growth model is no longer going to deliver high growth, says Harvard's Ken RogoffKen Rogoff, Harvard economics professor and former IMF chief economist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss China's economic crisis, why the 'debt supercycle' that came for the U.S. and Europe after the 2008 financial crisis could be knocking on China's door as it grapples with a brewing property crisis and growth slowdown, and more.
Persons: Ken Rogoff Ken Rogoff Organizations: U.S Locations: Harvard, Europe
Szilagyi has the record for the fastest-ever Harvard Economics Ph.D. (2.5 years), studying under Ken Rogoff. In addition to his economics Ph.D., Szilagyi holds BA and MA degrees in mathematics and economics from Yale. Szilagyi: Toggle is a generative AI startup that sits squarely at the intersection of finance and artificial intelligence. Toggle AI was really born from observing the ever-mounting flow of financial data that we needed to track. Thanks to his support, Toggle AI took off with a mission to provide every investor and advisor with powerful AI tools in an easy-to-navigate, chat interface.
Persons: Jan Szilagyi, Szilagyi, Stanley Druckenmiller, Lombard Odier, Ken Rogoff, Giuseppe Sette, Druckenmiller Organizations: Duquesne Capital, Lombard, Harvard, Yale, CNBC, Summit, Microsoft, Duquesne Locations: Szilagyi, Lombard
Watch CNBC's full interview with Harvard professor Ken Rogoff
  + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Harvard professor Ken RogoffHarvard professor and former IMF chief economist Ken Rogoff joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest in debt ceiling negotiations, why a last minute deal does not solve the underlying political problem, the Fed's rate hike campaign, and more.
Persons: Ken Rogoff
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHarvard professor Ken Rogoff: I think real interest rates are going to stay highHarvard professor and former IMF chief economist Ken Rogoff joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest in debt ceiling negotiations, why a last minute deal does not solve the underlying political problem, the Fed's rate hike campaign, and more.
Persons: Ken Rogoff Organizations: Harvard
New York CNN —Inside the Beltway, jockeying over raising the debt ceiling has become a partisan ritual to gain political points. But marching toward a debt ceiling default puts American living standards on the line. For most of that time, the debt ceiling was raised with little fuss, until 2011 brought the debt ceiling into a new dangerous realm of political brinksmanship. Deciding later not to pay the bills by not raising the debt ceiling is not sound fiscal policy. Roger Ferguson, economist and former vice chair of the Fed, said the debt ceiling is out of date.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailContagion and fallout risk 'not at all' finished from SVB collapse: Former IMF economist Ken RogoffJulia Coronado, MacroPolicy Perspectives founder and former Fed economist, and Ken Rogoff, former chief IMF economist and Harvard economics professor, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss what the Federal Reserve should do at its next meeting, if there's further contagion risk from the SVB collapse and more.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMan Group CEO: We have a big leg down coming when we have to deal with wage inflationMan Group CEO Luke Ellis, and Ken Rogoff, Harvard University professor of economics, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss their takeaways from Wednesday's rate hike announcement, the global central bank picture, and more.
This obsession with controlling inflation — and potentially causing serious pain for average Americans — is driven by one major factor: legacy. High inflation eats away at consumers' purchasing power, and persistent inflation seeps into expectations for price and wage adjustments, which further fuel inflation. What's more, the full impact of the Fed's rate hikes have yet to hit. Legacy actsThere are signs that certain Fed officials are ready to dial back on the inflation fight. And navigating such a tricky economy — without throwing hundreds of thousands of Americans out of work — could cement Powell's legacy.
Jon Wolfenbarger thinks the US economy is already in recession. With growth slowing and the Fed still tightening, Wolfenbarger thinks stocks are due for big losses. The S&P 500 is already down around 20% year-to-date. All of that spells further trouble ahead for stocks, Wolfenbarger said, despite the fact that the S&P 500 has already fallen about 20% in 2022. In a recessionary scenario, Goldman Sachs' David Kostin said the S&P 500 could fall to 3,150, though that is not his base case.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInterest rates aren't going to come down much, even after inflation falls, says Harvard's Ken RogoffKen Rogoff, Harvard professor of economics, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the global economy, interest rates and inflation.
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