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☆ Rate cuts won't prevent a recession and the economy is deteriorating 'quite rapidly,' investment strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewMarkets are confident that rate cuts will benefit stocks and the economy, but one strategist says lower borrowing costs won't stave off a recession. Yet, BCA Research chief asset allocation strategist Garry Evans said this week that lower rates can't avert a looming downturn. "There's things that are breaking down quite rapidly now," Evans said, including recent manufacturing data. Related storiesEvans said labor and manufacturing data, plus a range of global data like weak Japanese exports, are showing signs of a tough economic outlook worldwide. AdvertisementEvans said the Fed will likely cut rates in September, but that it won't prevent a pending recession.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell, Jackson, Stocks, Garry Evans, Evans Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, Research, CNBC, Labor Department, Wednesday, Institute for Supply Management

☆ Trump Media tumbles for a 2nd day after the former president returns to X and interviews with Elon Musk
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Shares of Trump Media dropped almost 4% Tuesday following the former president's interview with Elon Musk. Truth Social's latest earnings show the social media company is still struggling to turn a profit. AdvertisementShares of Donald Trump's media company tumbled for a second day on Tuesday after the former president returned to his firm's top rival after a three-year hiatus. In earnings released last week, Trump Media posted a $16 million loss and a decline in revenue in the most recent quarter. Trump's interview with Musk, streamed on X, lasted over two hours and attracted as many as 1.3 million listeners.

Persons: Elon Musk, —, Donald Trump's, Trump, Twitter —, Musk, Kamala Harris Organizations: Trump Media, Elon, Trump, Service, Truth, Capitol, Twitter, Republican, National Association of Black Journalists Conference Locations: Georgia, Chicago, Palm Beach , Florida

☆ Don't rush back into the stock market as more pain is coming if the economy keeps slowing, Stifel chief strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks are up since last week's sell-off but there's still reason to be cautious, Stifel's Barry Bannister said. He reiterated his expectation for a 10% market correction to push the S&P 500 to 5,000 by October. If the economy keeps slowing and eventually enters a recession, a bear market is imminent as inflation remains sticky, Stifel's chief strategist Barry Bannister said in a Tuesday interview on CNBC. While the Federal Reserve targets a PCE of 2.8%, Bannister expects the central bank to target closer to 3% by the fourth quarter due to persistent housing inflation. Weak GDP, consumption, fixed asset investment and net export data expected in the second half of the year also don't bode well for the economy, Bannister added.

Persons: Stocks, Stifel's Barry Bannister, Bannister, —, Barry Bannister, " Bannister, bode Organizations: Service, CNBC, Federal Reserve

☆ Oil prices surge as US rushes forces to the Middle East ahead of a possible attack by Iran
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-12 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Oil prices spiked on Monday as tensions flared in the Middle East. WTI crude oil and Brent crude were up over 3.6% and 2.86%, respectively. AdvertisementUS and international oil prices are surging as tensions in the Middle East simmer ahead of a potential attack by Iran against Israel. The rise in oil prices comes as Israel prepares for potential attacks from Iran, sources told the Wall Street Journal. Even before the latest production record, the Energy Information Administration announced in March that the US produces more crude oil than any other country.

Persons: Brent, —, Israel, Ismail Haniyeh Organizations: Service, Israel . West Texas, Wall Street Journal, Pentagon, Energy Information Administration Locations: East, Israel, Tehran, Iran, Beirut, OPEC

☆ There's a 40% chance the US economy is already in a recession, according to a new indicator
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-12 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

A new indicator says there's a 40% chance the US is in a recession that started as early as March. The measure builds on the Sahm rule, using job vacancy data in addition to unemployment data. The closely watched Sahm rule was triggered earlier this month after a weak July jobs report. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! AdvertisementThere's a new recession indicator that's making waves, and it says there's a 40% probability the US is already in a recession.

Persons: —, there's, Pascal Michaillat, Emmanuel Saez, Claudia Sahm — Organizations: Service, Business

☆ Kamala Harris counters Trump's message that the president should have a say in Fed decisions
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-12 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris said she "would never interfere" in Fed decisions. Last week, Republican nominee Donald Trump told reporters he wants a say in setting interest rates. The CEO of Bank of America is among those who have stated the importance of Fed independence after Trump's comments. AdvertisementUS Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris reacted to Donald Trump's recent statements that the president should have a hand in setting monetary policy. "The Fed is an independent entity and as president I would never interfere in the decisions that the Fed makes," she told reporters at a campaign event in Phoenix on Saturday.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, —, Donald Trump's, Harris Organizations: Democratic, Republican, Bank of America, Service, Fed, Business Locations: Phoenix

☆ Donald Trump says he should have a hand in setting interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-09 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump told reporters he wants a say in setting interest rates. Trump said he "made a lot of money" and would have better instincts than the Fed. Trump has been critical of the performance of the Fed and Jerome Powell, whom he appointed. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! AdvertisementFormer president Donald Trump says the president should have a say when it comes to setting interest rates.

Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Jerome Powell, — Organizations: Fed, Service, Federal Reserve, Business Locations: Florida

☆ China's surprise import surge last month points to stockpiling of key tech ahead of trade restrictions, BofA says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-08 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

China's imports last month surged 7.2% year-over-year, more than doubling analysts' expectations. The country is growing its tech inventory to prepare for potential trade restrictions, analysts say. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! China's ramp up in tech imports is likely in preparation for possible trade regulations, analysts from Bank of America said on Thursday.

Persons: — Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Business

☆ What the Fed must do to soothe markets after a historic global sell-off, according to JPMorgan strategy chief David Kelly
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Kelly says the Fed needs to broadcast its confidence in the economy to soothe jittery markets. JPMorgan's David Kelly told Business Insider he sees a possibility for even deeper losses following the big rout. We do stand ready to cut rates as appropriate but we don't think there's a very urgent situation here," Kelly said. More importantly, cutting rates abruptly would potentially instill more fear about the economy among investors, Kelly said. And I don't think the Federal Reserve tells people that, or maybe they don't appreciate it themselves," Kelly said, adding, "It's a drag before it's a stimulus."

Persons: Kelly, JPMorgan's David Kelly, —, David Kelly, Monday's, we've, Dow Jones Organizations: Fed, Service, JPMorgan Asset Management, Nasdaq, Nikkei, Reserve Locations: Japan

☆ Bitcoin tumbles as risk assets plunge in global market rout
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Bitcoin dropped on Monday amid the global market meltdown. Crypto has not been spared the carnage as traders eye a growing risk of a US recession. The sell-off in crypto comes as risk assets plunge in a global market rout caused by worries over the state of the US economy. Some market observers have said that the historic market rout could prompt an emergency rate cut from the central bank in the next week. Japan's Nikkei 225 index dropped 12% early Monday in its worst single-day decline since 1987, and markets in South Korea and Europe also plunged.

Persons: Bitcoin, Crypto, —, Gracy Chen Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Fed, Japan's Nikkei, Bank of America Locations: South Korea, Europe

☆ Fewer people are moving as 'hidden' homeownership costs spike, BofA says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Those who are moving are typically younger, lower-income families looking for cheaper housing. Hidden costs of moving are piling on top of higher overt costs like mortgages, the analysts note. With fewer people moving, furniture retail and other moving-related sectors are taking a hit, with spending on home furnishings down 10% year-over-year. Those who are moving have "relatively lower spending power due to being younger and/or on lower incomes," the analysts said. AdvertisementThe analysts said, though, that if would-be movers see any easing of "hidden costs," furniture and appliance spending could bounce back.

Persons: —, Gen Z Organizations: Service, Bank of America

☆ Intel plunges 30%, most since 1982, after announcing layoffs and weak guidance
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-02 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Intel's stock plunged as much as 30% on Friday, its biggest daily decline since at least 1982. The dip comes after the company announced plans to lay off 15,000 workers. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementIntel's stock took a big hit after the company issued disappointing guidance and announced sweeping layoffs in its most recent earnings report. Shares plunged as much as 30% on Friday, its biggest single-day drop since at least 1982, according to Bloomberg data.

Persons: —, Pat Gelsinger, ASML, Gelsinger Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Intel, Nikkei, Nvidia Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Netherlands

☆ Why Japanese stocks just had their worst day in 4 years
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-02 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Japanese government raised rates on Wednesday, breaking from its historically dovish stance. The drop comes just two days after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates in an effort to boost the yen's value amidst higher inflation. The BoJ raised rates from a range of 0% to 0.1% to a benchmark 0.25%. The bank raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years back in March, ending its negative interest-rate policy. Others add that, as the market prices in the rate hikes, it will adjust accordingly.

Persons: —, Kazuo Ueda Organizations: Nikkei, Service, Bank of, Bank of Japan, Intel, Bank of America, JPMorgan Locations: Tokyo

☆ Stock market today: Indexes dip after Meta earnings and new labor-market data
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-01 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Indexes slid on Thursday despite a strong earnings report from Meta that sent the stock soaring. New jobless-claims data beat expectations and approached a one-year high, stoking economic concern. Investors are pricing in a 100% chance of Fed rate cuts in September. Shares of Meta soared as much as 11% after the company beat earnings estimates in the most recent quarter and raised its full-year revenue guidance. Qualcomm also beat earnings expectations but saw its stock down 3% Thursday.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, Meta, Wednesday's, Qualcomm, Here's Locations: Meta

☆ Stock market today: Indexes tank as data paints a negative picture for the economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-01 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks nosedived on Thursday after several discouraging economic data points. The ISM manufacturing index dropped from 48.5% in June to 46.8% in July, marking an eight-month low. Investors are pricing in a 100% chance of Fed rate cuts in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Meanwhile, new data shows ISM manufacturing slid further into contraction territory in July. Jensen Huang just got $12 billion richer in a single day as Nvidia's stock soared on Wednesday.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell, Jensen Huang Organizations: Service, Reuters

☆ Moderna stock tumbles 21% as earnings show people aren't getting as many COVID shots
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-01 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Moderna lowered its annual sales forecast as sales of its COVID-19 vaccine dropped by 37%. The company's vaccine sales struggled especially in Europe, where Pfizer has a deal until 2026. AdvertisementPeople are getting fewer COVID-19 shots, and it's hitting former vaccine heavyweight Moderna, new earnings show. The company's second quarter revenue dropped to $241 million, compared to $344 million a year ago, as sales of its COVID-19 vaccine dropped 37% year-over-year. Moderna also lowered its sales forecast for the year to between $3 billion and $3.5 billion, down from its previous forecast of around $4 billion.

Persons: —, it's, Stephane Bancel Organizations: Moderna, Pfizer, Service Locations: Europe, Moderna, Covid

☆ We just got another sign inflation is cooling
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-31 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The data is a welcome sign that inflation is easing, and could add to the Fed's confidence that inflation has slowed enough to allow for rate cuts. AdvertisementIn the past few weeks, Fed officials have consistently said they need more data on cooling inflation and a soft labor market before deciding when (and if) to cut interest rates. In a Wednesday press release ahead of the FOMC meeting, the Fed said inflation is "somewhat elevated," showing inflation has eased closer toward the Fed's 2% target. Related stories"The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals continue to move into better balance," the statement said. That language marks a shift in the Fed's focus away from focusing wholly on inflation and toward ensuring both inflation and the labor market continue to cool before cutting rates.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell Organizations: Service, New Labor Department, Bloomberg, Business, Fed, Bank of America Locations: Bank

☆ Why chip stocks are on an absolute tear today
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-31 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Nvidia is getting a boost from that and surging after being renamed Morgan Stanley's top semi pick. AdvertisementChip stocks were rallying across the board on Wednesday, driven by a big earnings beat from AMD and Morgan Stanley naming Nvidia a top stock pick. Other stocks getting a lift included ASML (up 11%), Qualcomm (up 6%), and Samsung (up 4%). In addition to riding AMD's wave higher, Nvidia was renamed Morgan Stanley's top semiconductor stock pick. "Through those concerns, the earnings environment is likely to remain strong, for NVIDIA and for the whole AI complex," the analysts said.

Persons: Morgan Stanley's, —, Morgan Stanley, Morgan Organizations: Nvidia, AMD, Service, Morgan, Qualcomm, Samsung, NVIDIA Locations: China, Netherlands, Japan, South Korea

☆ CrowdStrike extends post-outage losses to 34% on report Delta has hired a lawyer to seek compensation
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-30 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The stock fell as much as 13% on Tuesday alone after heavily-hit Delta reportedly hired a lawyer. No suit has been filed, but Delta plans to seek compensation from CrowdStrike, CNBC said. The continued fallout comes after CNBC reported that Delta hired attorney David Boies — chairman of Boies Schiller Flexner — to seek compensation for outage-related damages, according to CNBC. AdvertisementDelta's earnings will drop an estimated $350 million to $500 million this quarter as a result of the outage, according to Bloomberg. Following the Friday outage, Delta still canceled hundreds of flights on Tuesday, by when most other airlines had resumed normal operations.

Persons: —, David Boies —, Boies Schiller, Boies, Elizabeth Holmes, Al Gore, Harvey Weinstein Organizations: Delta, CNBC, Service, Hollywood, Microsoft, Bloomberg, United Locations: CrowdStrike, Delta, FlightAware

☆ Goldman's CEO reverses course, now expects up to 2 rate cuts in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-30 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The Fed will likely cut rates once or twice this year, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon says. Solomon previously predicted no rate cuts for this year, but says he now sees more promising data. AdvertisementTwo months ago, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said the Federal Reserve was unlikely to cut rates at all in 2024. Now he's predicting one or two cuts this fall as economic data becomes more promising. "I've been more cautious about interest rate cuts all year than the general consensus," he told CNBC in a Tuesday interview.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, Solomon, —, I've Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Business

☆ Why investors should buy industrial stocks now as a valuable market driver deteriorates, Morgan Stanley says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-30 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Earnings-revision breadth, cited as a bullish market driver, has deteriorated, Morgan Stanley says. But industrial stocks are still uniquely positioned to outperform, the firm says. AdvertisementA key driver of stock-market bullishness is deteriorating, although there are still opportunities available, Morgan Stanley wrote in new research. The firm is referring to earnings-revision breadth, which enjoyed an increase that coincided with a rally in small-cap stocks in recent weeks. The chart below shows a deceleration in earnings-revision breadth for S&P 500 companies in recent months:Morgan Stanley"This does not offer support for a broad cyclical rotation," Morgan Stanley analysts wrote.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, —, Mike Wilson, Industrials Organizations: Companies, Service, CIO

☆ The reason why McDonald's stock is soaring despite a big earnings miss: Value meals
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-29 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

McDonald's global comparable sales fell 1% year-over-year last quarter, missing analyst estimates. The company plans to focus on value going forward as low income customers grow weary from inflation. McDonald's same-store sales fell 1% in the most recent quarter, marking the first decrease in same-store sales since 2020. Its net income for the quarter fell to $2.02 billion, down from $2.31 billion the year before. Low income customers, in particular, are shying away from fast food as inflation soas.

Persons: —, McDonald's, Chris Kempczinski, Joe Erlinger, Kempczinski Organizations: Service, Consumers Locations: New York, McDonald's, U.S

☆ Bitcoin tests $70k after Trump says US will be 'crypto capital of the planet'
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-29 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

During remarks over the weekend, Donald Trump said he wants to make the US a "bitcoin superpower." Trump said he has raised $25 million in crypto donations over the last two months. AdvertisementDuring remarks a weekend bitcoin conference, presidential hopeful Donald Trump pledged to make the US the "crypto capital of the planet, and the bitcoin superpower of the world" if elected in November. Kennedy, a staunch crypto supporter, said Trump's policies while in office capped the currency's growth and reminded the audience that Trump once called Bitcoin "a scam against the dollar." AdvertisementTrump's comments follow his party's recent growing support for crypto.

Persons: Donald Trump, Bitcoin, Trump, —, Gary Gensler, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Kennedy, Ross Ulbricht, he's, He's, Cameron, Tyler Winklevoss Organizations: Service, SEC, Twitter, Gemini, Trump, Assets, Government Surveillance Locations: Nashville

☆ Bristol Myers surges 10%, its biggest increase since 2008, after boosting profit forecast
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-26 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Bristol Myers boosted its adjusted earnings for the year to between 60 and 90 cents a share, up 20 cents from its last forecast. AdvertisementOf Bristol Myers' existing drugs, Eliquis saw a 7% increase in sales year-over-year. Cancer drug Opdivo and blood cancer treatment Revlimid also saw promising results and beat quarterly sales estimates. The company reiterated its plan to cut $1.5 billion in costs by 2025, which was announced at its last quarterly earnings call. Bristol Myers is only the latest of a host of other drugmakers to raise their earnings guidance this week.

Persons: Myers, —, Bristol Myers, Christopher Boerner, Eliquis, Revlimid, David Elkins, Boerner, AbbVie Organizations: Bristol, Myers Squibb, Service, Cancer, FDA, AstraZeneca, Roche, Sanofi Locations: Bristol

☆ Why the Fed won't cut rates until December, according to Bank of America
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-26 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The Federal Reserve will wait until December to cut interest rates, Bank of America economists say. The forecast runs counter to consensus, with 90% of investors expecting a first cut in September. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementIn a Thursday research note, Bank of America reiterated its prediction for rate cuts to begin in December, even with a majority of investors expecting one in September. Meanwhile, 90% of investors expect a cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Persons: BofA, — Organizations: Federal, Bank of America, Service, Business

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