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☆ Markets think the odds of a Fed pause in December are rising
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-20 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

AdvertisementTraders see a 45% chance the Fed pauses rate cuts in December, up from 17% last week. The rising odds come as markets digest a win for Trump, whose policies could complicate the Fed's plans. After two consecutive interest rate cuts, markets think the Federal Reserve might be ready to hit pause. AdvertisementThe rising odds come as markets continue to digest a win for Donald Trump, and as Fed officials have sounded cautious on the path of future policy easing in recent remarks. AdvertisementThe rising odds of a pause also come as Fed speakers this week have struck a cautious tone.

Persons: Donald Trump, Joseph Stiglitz, David Kelly, Jerome Powell, he'd, Trump, JPMorgan's Kelly, They're, Kelly, Michelle Bowman, Lisa Cook, Cook, Powell Organizations: Trump, Reserve, JPMorgan, Fed, Federal, University of Virginia Locations: West Palm Beach , Florida, Charlottesville, Dallas

☆ How Europe can avoid a trade war in a 2nd Trump term
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-17 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

They say the EU will need to employ some retaliatory measures but has to be careful not to escalate. AdvertisementEconomists and analysts said that in order to avoid a trade war, policymakers in Europe need to employ a specific playbook to mitigate the economic drag while keeping trade tensions in check. Kenningham says the EU will likely hit the US with targeted tariffs on certain industries, rather than an across-the-board action. Related storiesTrade deals to avoid tariffsKenningham said EU policymakers could also negotiate a deal to avoid US tariffs. Advertisement"There is a possibility that if the strategy toward Europe is very aggressive, Europeans may change attitudes toward the Transatlantic Alliance.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Donald Trump, Trump, Joachim Nagel, Emmanuel Macron, Mario Draghi, Andrew Kenningham, Kenningham, Harley, Carlo Bastasin, Bastasin Organizations: Biden, Italian, Capital Economics, European Union, EU, Trade, European, Brookings, Trump, Transatlantic Alliance Locations: Europe, China, European, EU, Trump's, Ukraine, Germany

☆ Trump's plan to build more homes on federal land could push prices higher, UBS says
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-15 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Trump's plan to transform federal land into housing will be costly, given minimal existing infrastructure, UBS says. Those policies, plus a set of potentially inflationary proposals, could drive up both home prices and mortgage rates, they say. Trump's plan to transform federal land into more housing seems particularly challenged, the analysts say. The higher rates will likely continue the housing lock-in effect, where existing homeowners prefer to remain locked in at their current lower rates. In prepared remarks on Thursday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the US is in no hurry to cut rates, signaling that mortgage rates could stay higher for longer.

Persons: —, Donald Trump's, homeownership, Trump, JD Vance, Vance, homebuyers, Jerome Powell Organizations: UBS, Service, Builders

☆ Betting markets nailed Trump's decisive win — and it's a good reminder they can be more accurate than polls
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-09 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Prediction markets swung in favor of Trump in the weeks before his victory, as polls showed a virtual tie. Proponents point to a number of factors that make betting markets more accurate. That was still hours before major news outlets called the electionPrediction site founders and researchers have long argued that betting markets are more accurate than traditional polling. I think this is the dawn of a new era for prediction markets, and prediction markets are here to stay," Mansour said. If they don't improve, the betting markets could replace them entirely, he predicted.

Persons: —, Donald Trump's, Kamala Harris, Trump, They've, Tarek Mansour, Mansour, Harry Crane, Northwestern University's Thomas Miller, Miller, Biden, Harris, Crane, Davide Accomazzo Organizations: Trump, Service, Rutgers University, BI, Northwestern, Pepperdine Graziadio Business

☆ French regulators are looking into Polymarket after a massive surge in US election betting
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

France's gambling regulator said it's looking into Polymarket to determine compliance with domestic laws. That comes after one "whale" who bet $30 million on a Trump win was revealed to be a French national. "We are aware of this site and are currently examining its operation and compliance with French gambling legislation," a spokesperson for the regulator told Bloomberg. A report from the crypto news site The Big Whale said the ANJ is preparing to ban the site for French users. AdvertisementPolymarket garnered nearly $3.7 billion in wagers on the election before the result was called, Polymarket data shows.

Persons: —, Donald Trump, it's, Polymarket, Whale, Kamala Harris Organizations: Trump, Service, des Jeux, Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal Locations: French, France, New York

☆ Trump's presidency will hurt Europe's economic growth amid renewed trade tensions, Goldman Sachs says
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-06 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Europe could take a hit to GDP in a second Trump presidency, Goldman Sachs analysts say. Europe could face a big hit to economic growth as trade tensions increase, Goldman Sachs analysts said. The analysts downgraded their growth forecasts across the region, down to 0.8% from their previous forecast of 1.1% for 2025. AdvertisementThe analysts point to renewed trade tensions fueled by Trump's proposal for sweeping tariffs on all US imports. More significant than the actual tariff increases, though, will be the trade policy uncertainty that comes with them, the analysts say.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, —, Trump, Joachim Nagel, Christine Lagarde Organizations: Trump, Service, EU, NATO Locations: Europe, TPU, Germany, Sweden, Switzerland, China, Ukraine

☆ Ballooning US debt could cause the next financial crisis and neither candidate has a plan to address it, former FDIC Chair says
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

US debt is surging and Trump and Harris's plans will only add to the pile, the former FDIC chair says. Sheila Bair warns that high debt cause the next financial crisis. She says neither candidate has focused on the crisis because higher taxes and lower benefits would drive away voters. Surging debt levels could cause the next financial crisis if left unchecked, Bair warned. "Now, the resulting overhang of federal debt could itself be the cause of a future crisis," Bair wrote in an op-ed last week.

Persons: Sheila Bair, —, Bair, Trump's, Harris's, don't, it's Organizations: Trump, Service, Treasury, Investors, CNBC

☆ A Trump win could prompt the Fed to hit pause on its rate-cutting cycle, JPMorgan strategy chief says
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-03 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

If Trump wins the election, the Fed could pause rate cuts in December, JPMorgan's David Kelly says. Kelly points to Trump's plans for expansionary fiscal policy that would fuel inflation. Kelly pointed to Trump's plans for an expansionary fiscal policy that would fuel inflation higher and keep rates from coming down. AdvertisementIn that case, the Fed would likely stick to its projected path of policy easing, Kelly said. Advertisement"Once they got some sense of what fiscal policy is going to do, I think that will have some impact on their decision-making.

Persons: JPMorgan's David Kelly, Kelly, Harris, —, Donald Trump, David Kelly, Trump, Kamala Harris, They're Organizations: Trump, Service, Federal, JPMorgan, Business, Fed

☆ Wealthy sports fans can now put money into investments tied to their favorite leagues
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-31 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

High-net-worth sports fans can now invest in an index of companies tied to their favorite league. AdvertisementSports fans with money to spare can now reap returns from their favorite leagues thanks to a new investment offering from Morgan Stanley. The Parametric Custom Core Sports League strategy is a portfolio that allows high-net-worth fans to invest a minimum of $250,000 in an index of companies tied to major sports leagues. The offering involves 13 of the biggest sports leagues, from the NFL and NBA to the US Open and Formula 1. Last year, Goldman Sachs unveiled a new unit of dealmakers to pitch investments in teams and stadiums to wealthy clients.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, —, Sandra Richards, Morgan Stanley's, Richards, Marc Lasry, Steve Cohen, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Wall, Service, League, NFL, NBA, US, Women's, Morgan Stanley's Global Sports, Entertainment Division, CNBC, Nielsen Sports, Sports, PGA, Yankees, Citi, JPMorgan

☆ Big Tech earnings drop this week. Here's what Wall Street is watching.
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-29 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Big Tech earnings start today, with roughly $12 trillion in market cap reporting over three days. Mark Zuckerberg hasn't shied away from saying his company will keep spending big on AI, and the market hasn't minded. Judging by Meta Connect 2024 and its CTO's comments , the tech giant wants to own the market for AI-powered wearables.

Persons: —, We'll, Insider's Kelly Cloonan, We're, Mark Zuckerberg hasn't, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Milan Sehmbi, Amanda Yen Organizations: Business, Service, Traders, Big Tech, Google, Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, AWS, Apple, Apple Intelligence Locations: China, New York, London

☆ The Fed is likely to disappoint markets with just one more rate cut this year amid global inflation, BlackRock CEO says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-29 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says the Fed will cut rates just once more this year. The market sees two more 25 basis point cuts before the end of the year. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve will disappoint markets by cutting interest rates just one more time in 2024, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said. Fink said the Fed will likely cut interest rates by 25 basis points before the end of the year amid a rise in global inflation. The central bank kicked off its easing cycle with a jumbo 50 basis point cut last month.

Persons: Larry Fink, —, Fink, " Fink, we're, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley Organizations: BlackRock, Fed, Service, Reserve, Infrastructure Investment, Jobs Act, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, CNBC Locations: Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

☆ Mortgage rates will be high throughout 2025 even as the Fed lowers borrowing costs, Goldman Sachs says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-29 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Mortgage rates will remain above 6% throughout 2025, Goldman Sachs said. In the bank's 2025 Housing Outlook, the analysts forecast mortgage rates will remain elevated, even as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. They expect mortgage rates to stay above 6% next year and end 2025 at 6.1%. "Our strategists expect mortgage rates to remain elevated for the foreseeable future," the analysts, led by Jan Hatzius, said in a Monday note. AdvertisementThey pointed to a variety of technical factors, including lower rates volatility and a rebound in demand for mortgage-backed securities that will help close the gap between risk-free rates and mortgage rates.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, —, Freddie Mac, Jan Hatzius Organizations: Analysts, Service, Federal Reserve, Treasury

☆ China is eyeing $1.4 trillion in fiscal stimulus and even more if Trump is elected, report says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-29 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China is considering a fresh $1.4 trillion stimulus, Reuters reported. The package could be approved next week and would increase in size if Trump wins the election. The large fiscal stimulus would be increased if Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump wins the US election, the report says. The remaining 4 trillion yuan would be raised by local government bonds and put toward idle land and property purchases, the sources told Reuters. AdvertisementIf Trump is elected, the stimulus package could be higher due to the economic challenges Trump's policies would pose for China, the sources told Reuters.

Persons: Trump's, —, Donald Trump, Trump, he's, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Reuters, Trump, Service, Republican, National People's Congress, China, Wall Locations: China, Beijing

☆ Stock market today: S&P 500 snaps 3-day losing streak as Tesla surges 22%
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-24 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The S&P 500 closed higher on Thursday to end a three-day losing streak. The index was fueled by a surge in Tesla's stock, which closed 22% higher after a strong earnings beat. AdvertisementUS stocks closed mixed Thursday, though the S&P 500 was able to push higher after three days of losses. Its operating profit also exceeded expectations, up 54% from a year ago to $2.7 billion, while analysts expected $2.0 billion. Some analysts, though, remain cautious that the strong earnings will be sustainable in future quarters.

Persons: —, Tesla Organizations: Service, Dow Jones, IBM, UBS, JPMorgan

☆ Prospects of a Trump win and huge tariffs spark worst sell-off for emerging market stocks in 10 months
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-24 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The slump comes as investors price in higher odds of a Trump win in the upcoming US election. Emerging market stocks are headed for their worst monthly decline since January, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index falling for a fourth day on Thursday for a 3.1% decline this month. A select few EM stocks have taken the biggest hits, with Samsung, Alibaba, Tencent, and Meituan accounting for more than half of the index's fall. "There has been a significant change in investor sentiment, and investors' risk budgets have likely been changing as a function of that." Investors are also expressing disappointment in China's stimulus measures, which initially fueled a rally in EM stocks last month.

Persons: Trump, —, It's, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Harris Organizations: Trump, Service, Samsung, Citi Locations: China

☆ Stock market today: Indexes trade mixed as traders look to break out of 3-day slump
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-24 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

A rise in tech stocks fueled the indexes higher after Tesla reported strong earnings. Jobless claims from last week fell unexpectedly to 227,000, a drop of 15,000 from the week before. AdvertisementUS stocks were mixed Thursday morning, as the market tried to break out of a three-day slump following this week's bond sell-off. Investors' exposure to the S&P 500 is the highest since mid-2023 in a signal that's previously preceded a 10% slump, Citi says. Apple stock tumbles after analyst says iPhone 16 orders cut by 10 million units, sees "no evidence" of AI boosting demand.

Persons: Tesla, — Organizations: Dow, Service, Dow Jones Industrial, Treasury, Nasdaq, Investors, Citi, Apple

☆ 'Flexible co-living' could help bring down office-conversion costs and add housing supply, new study says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-22 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

A study finds that dorm-style housing could be an efficient path to convert vacant office space. The study comes as office vacancies rise and housing supply remains constrained. The report comes as companies reevaluate their need for office space in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. The national office vacancy rate is set to rise to around 20% by the end of this year, according to commercial real estate firm CBRE. The report comes as the number of office spaces set for residential conversions is on the rise, up to 55,000 this year.

Persons: —, Wes LeBlanc, Alex Horowitz Organizations: Service, Pew Locations: Denver, Minneapolis, Seattle

☆ China is set to be Russia's biggest pipeline gas customer this year as flows to Europe dwindle
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-21 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Russian gas giant Gazprom sent more natural gas to China than Europe in the first nine months of the year. Europe had previously been Russia's biggest energy customer, but flows have cratered since the war in Ukraine began. AdvertisementRussian gas flows to Europe are dwindling, but China is stepping in and is set to become Russia's biggest customer of pipeline gas this year. Those flows surpass the 22.5 billion cubic meters of pipeline gas exported to Europe in the same period, putting China on track to overtake Europe as Russia's biggest natural gas customer in 2024. Another link, Power of Siberia 2, is under discussion and would increase the country's gas flows to China to almost 100 billion cubic meters a year.

Persons: — Organizations: Gazprom, Service, Bloomberg Locations: China, Europe, Ukraine, Russia's, Moscow, Hungary, Slovakia, Austria, Russia, Siberia

☆ China's attempts to save its flailing housing market haven't boosted confidence among top Wall Street analysts
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-20 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

On Thursday, China unveiled new measures to prop up its struggling property market. AdvertisementChina officials have directed a wave of stimulus measures at the country's beleaguered property market, but the effort hasn't done much to impress Wall Street experts. On Thursday, China unveiled new measures to prop up its flailing housing market, including quicker access to credit for developers and renovations in run-down urban areas. "While a step in the right direction, these stimulus measures are so far falling short of the scope and scale needed to reflate the Chinese economy. But Yingrui Wang, China economist at AXA Investment Managers, says that optimism could be short-lived as the housing stimulus lacks detail.

Persons: —, Wall, Goldman Sachs, haven't, Yingrui Wang, Wang Organizations: Service, Ministry of Housing, Ministry, BCA Research, AXA Investment, CSI Locations: China, Beijing, China's

☆ Netflix closes at all-time highs after reporting solid earnings beat and strong guidance
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The surge comes after the streaming giant reported another strong quarter and issued positive guidance. Quarterly revenue was slightly above estimates while its ad-supported tier saw strong subscriber growth. AdvertisementInvestors poured into Netflix shares on Friday, sending the stock to record highs after the streaming giant's solid third-quarter earnings report. The surge came after Netflix reported a strong earnings beat and gave positive forward guidance that gave investors confidence about its position in the streaming wars. He said Netflix's latest earnings and free cash flow set it apart from the competition in the increasingly fierce streaming wars.

Persons: —, Morgan Stanley, Benjamin Swinburne, Swinburne Organizations: Service, Netflix, Bloomberg, UBS, Bank of America, CNBC Locations: signups

☆ Nvidia stock has another 38% upside amid a 'generational opportunity' in AI, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Bank of America analysts raised their price target for Nvidia stock to $190 a share this week. They see the AI market growing to $400 billion, giving Nvidia a "generational opportunity." AdvertisementNvidia stock has been on a tear all year, but investors can brace for even more gains ahead, Bank of America analysts say. The analysts point to exponential growth in the AI market in the coming years, which they say will give Nvidia a "generational opportunity" as the chip titan continues to strengthen its lead in the market. Nvidia's stock has skyrocketed this year, up 187% as AI continues to boom after a brief sell-off over the summer.

Persons: —, Nvidia's Organizations: of America, Nvidia, Service, Bank of America, Google, Meta, Accenture, ServiceNow, Oracle, Microsoft, Foundry

☆ Gold is the 'last safe haven' as Treasurys face risks from soaring US debt, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-17 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Traders and central banks should increase exposure to gold, Bank of America says. The analysts see gold hitting $3,000 an ounce by the end of next year, implying 11% upside. AdvertisementGold is increasingly attractive as other traditional "safe haven" assets face mounting risks, Bank of America strategists said. "Gold looks to be the last 'safe haven' asset standing, incentivising traders including central banks to increase exposure," the strategists said in a Wednesday note. The Bank of America analysts note that gold now makes up 10% of central bank reserves, up from 3% a decade ago.

Persons: — Organizations: Bank of America, Service, International Monetary Fund, US Treasury, Investors, Federal Reserve

☆ A strong dollar is a key risk to the stock market's big rally, Morgan Stanley CIO says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-17 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson says the stock market's bull run could slow if the dollar strengthens again. AdvertisementMorgan Stanley's top stock strategist is eyeing one risk in particular that could threaten the stock market's big rally: a stronger US dollar. According to the firm's chief US equity strategist, Mike Wilson, a dollar re-strengthening could hinder stock gains. The greenback weakened as markets prepared for steep rate cuts, but that move has reversed in recent weeks as strong economic data makes more aggressive policy easing less likely. Wilson's call comes two years into the market's bull rally, with major indexes continuing to hit fresh all-time highs.

Persons: Morgan, Mike Wilson, —, that's, Wilson Organizations: Service, Bloomberg Radio, Federal Locations: China, Japan

☆ Stock market today: Indexes gain after strong retail sales data
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-17 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks rose Thursday as investors digested strong retail sales data and more earnings. Retail sales data showed US consumer spending remains robust, with monthly spending up 0.4%. AdvertisementUS stocks climbed on Thursday as traders saw better-than-expected retail sales data and continued to digest strong corporate earnings reports. September's retail sales report showed consumer spending remains strong, with monthly spending up 0.4% from August, just above a Dow Jones consensus estimate of 0.3%. And almost every AI innovator is working with TSMC," TSMC chairman and CEO C.C.

Persons: Stocks, ASML, —, C.C, Wei, TSMC, Morgan Stanley, JB Hunt Organizations: Service, Dow Jones, Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Nvidia, AMD, chipmakers, United Airlines, Netflix, Caixin Global, JB Locations: Wednesday's, Here's, China

☆ Luxury stocks slide as LVMH disappoints and Wall Street eyes few signs of stronger China demand despite stimulus
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-16 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Dior and Louis Vuitton parent pointed to weak consumer demand in China. Wall Street analysts say recent stimulus measures likely won't be enough for spending in China to rebound. The company pointed to overwhelmingly weak demand in China, with organic sales in Asia (excluding Japan) falling 16%. The company gave vague forward guidance, and analysts on Wall Street say the country's recent stimulus won't be enough to reverse the weak demand. China's latest stimulus package, unveiled late last month, has aimed to prop up the country's weak consumer demand and struggling property sector.

Persons: LVMH, Hermes, Dior, Louis Vuitton, —, Christian Dior, Jean, Jacques Guiony, Guiony, We've Organizations: L'Oreal, Wall Street, Service, Wall, Citigroup Inc Locations: China, Asia, Japan

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