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Dollar pulls ahead as markets focus on Trump policies, Fed outlook
  + stars: | 2024-11-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
After stalling for three sessions, the greenback was back on the march higher, with investors lifting the dollar index measure against its key rivals closer to a one-year high of 107.07 hit last week. The dollar has rallied more than 2% since the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election on bets Trump's policies could reignite inflation and temper the Fed's future rate cuts. The dollar index held steady at 106.56, up from a one-week nadir hit in the previous session. "The Russia-Ukraine conflict is heating up, which is further denting sentiment towards the euro alongside the prospects of trade tariffs," another "bullish cue" for the dollar index given the euro's heavy weighting, City Index's Simpson said. The dollar gave up some gains against the yen, down 0.33% at 154.91 yen , although the Japanese currency remained under pressure.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Matt Simpson, CME's, Michelle Bowman, Lisa Cook, Index's Simpson, Kazuo Ueda, Sterling, bitcoin, Bitcoin Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, Wednesday, Storm, ATACMS, Bank of Japan, Bank of England's Locations: Europe, China, Russia, Ukraine, Paris
Dollar sitting pretty, yen bears wary of Bank of Japan hawks
  + stars: | 2024-11-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Yen bears were tense in case Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda used a speech later Monday to flag a possible rate hike in December, in part due to the weakness of the currency. Markets imply around a 55% chance of a quarter-point rate hike to 0.5% when the BOJ meets on Dec. 19. Against a basket of currencies the dollar held at 106.730, having touched a one-year top of 107.07 on Friday. The rally has coincided with a savage swing in 10-year Treasury yields, which have climbed 70 basis points since the start of October, fuelling a 5.4% rise in the U.S. dollar index . Analysts generally assume Trump's touted policies of tariffs, reduced immigration and debt-funded tax cuts will be inflationary, so limiting the scope for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Ueda, Donald Trump's, Katsunobu Kato, Jonas Goltermann, Trump, Howard Lutnick, Cantor Fitzgerald, Scott Bessent Organizations: Bank of Japan, U.S, Japanese Finance, Capital Economics, Trump, Federal Reserve, Central Bankers Locations: U.S, Japan, Canada
After a messy election, the Bank of Japan decided to hold its benchmark policy rate at 0.25%, as expected. These outlook risks highlight that the timing of the next BOJ rate hike could depend heavily on developments overseas, as well as the exchange rate and its impact on the Japanese economy, Otani added. He added that it would surpass the 13 trillion yen ($84.6 billion) allocated in last year's supplementary budget. When Ishiba returns, he is expected to hold an extraordinary Diet session, during which he hopes to pass the supplementary budget plan, according to local news. Then I would probably rule out a rate hike in December, because that would create a lot of uncertainty about the fiscal situation."
Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Stefan Angrick, Angrick, Akira Otani, Goldman Sachs, Otani, Marcel Thieliant, Shigeru Ishiba, Ishibia, Ishiba, Thieliant Organizations: Japan, Bank of Japan, Moody's, Liberal Democratic Party, Asia Pacific, Capital Economics, CNBC, Democratic Party Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Brazil
Kazuo Ueda, governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), speaks during a news conference at the central bank's headquarters in Tokyo, JapanAsia-Pacific markets are set for a mixed open on Thursday as investors look to the Bank of Japan's rate decision, as well as key business activity figures from China. Economists polled by Reuters expect the BOJ will hold rates at 0.25%, although the statement will be parsed for any clues on the timing of its next rate hike. In China, the National Bureau of Statistics is set to release the country's official purchasing managers index numbers for September, with the manufacturing PMI forecast to come in at 49.9, a softer contraction than the 49.8 the month before. Still, that would be the sixth straight month of contraction for the country's manufacturing sector.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda Organizations: Bank of Japan, Bank of, Reuters, National Bureau, Statistics Locations: Tokyo, Japan Asia, Pacific, China
Yen under pressure as BOJ keeps rates steady
  + stars: | 2024-10-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. The yen remained under pressure on Thursday as the Bank of Japan kept ultra-low interest rates steady, while the U.S. dollar consolidated ahead of jobs data later this week and the U.S. presidential election next week. The BOJ kept interest rates steady on Thursday and roughly maintained its forecast that inflation will hover near its 2% inflation target in coming years, signaling its readiness to continue rolling back its massive monetary stimulus. Analysts are divided over the prospect of additional interest rate hikes by year-end, putting the focus on BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's post-meeting briefing for clues on the pace and timing of further increases. "Any strengthening of the yen at present would likely result from a general weakening of the U.S. dollar if interest rates begin to align," said Sean Teo, a sales trader at Saxo.
Persons: Yen, Kazuo Ueda's, Sean Teo, payrolls, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Sterling Organizations: Bank of Japan, U.S ., U.S, Treasury, Saxo, National Statistics, PMI, Westpac, European Central Bank, Australian, Analysts, New Zealand Locations: China, U.S
Japan's longtime ruling Liberal Democratic Party may have suffered an election shock, but analysts said that's unlikely to deter the Bank of Japan from its interest rate hike cycle. In Sunday's elections, the LDP lost its majority in Japan's lower house for the first time since 2009. Besides its junior coalition partner Komeito, the LDP will need to work with other parties to form a government. The political turmoil comes ahead of a Bank of Japan meeting this week. Roughly 86% of economists polled by Reuters expect the central bank to leave its rates unchanged when it announces its decision Thursday.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Japan's, Komeito, David Boling, CNBC's, they're, Izumi Devalier, Devalier, you've Organizations: Japan, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Liberal Democratic Party, Bank of Japan, LDP, Eurasia Group, Reuters, Bank of America Locations: Washington , U.S, Japan
Dollar at over two-month high, yen near 150 per dollar
  + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The U.S. dollar was perched at an over two-month high against major currencies on Tuesday, spurred by wagers the Federal Reserve will proceed with modest rate cuts in the near term, while the yen inched closer to the key 150 per dollar level. The U.S. dollar was perched at an over two-month high against major currencies on Tuesday, spurred by wagers the Federal Reserve will proceed with modest rate cuts in the near term, while the yen inched closer to the key 150 per dollar level. The U.S. central bank kicked off its easing cycle with an aggressive 50 basis points at its last policy meeting in September. The dollar got a lift after Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Monday called for "more caution" on interest rate cuts ahead, citing recent economic data. That has cast doubts over when Japan's central bank will next tighten policy.
Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, Chris Weston, Kazuo Ueda, Shigeru Ishiba, Tony Sycamore Organizations: U.S, Reserve, European Central Bank, Fed, Traders, Boeing, Bank of Japan, New Zealand, Caixin Global, Treasury, IG, China National, Congress Locations: U.S, Japan, China
Japan's Nikkei 225 jumps 2.5% as yen weakens
  + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Anniek Bao | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Pedestrians cross a road in front of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE), operated by Japan Exchange Group Inc. (JPX), in Tokyo, Japan, on Thursday, Oct. 29, 2020. Japan stocks led Asian markets higher Thursday, after Wall Street inched higher amid rising tensions in the Middle East. Japan's Nikkei 225 opened 2.57% higher while the broad-based Topix added 2%. Australia's seasonally adjusted Judo Bank Composite PMI data came in at 49.6 in September, lower from the 51.7 in August, falling past the 50 neutral mark. Other data on tap include Japan's PMI data for September and August retail sales from Hong Kong.
Persons: Shigeru Ishiba, Ishiba, Kazuo Ueda Organizations: Tokyo Stock Exchange, Japan Exchange Group Inc, Nikkei, U.S, Bank of Japan, PMI, Australian Bureau, Statistics, Economists Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, Hong Kong
Despite dovish comments from Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba leading to a sharp plunge in the yen , market analysts aren't budging from their Bank of Japan policy expectations for the longer term. The yen slid to as weak as 147.15 against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, after Ishiba told reporters that the current economic climate does not require an additional rate increase. The prime minister's comments marked a drastic change in tone compared with the messaging on his recent campaign trail. On Thursday morning, BOJ board member Asahi Noguchi said that the central bank should continue its accommodative monetary policy for the time being. He noted that it will take a while to change the public's perception that prices will not increase significantly in the future.
Persons: Shigeru Ishiba, aren't budging, Ishiba, Kazuo Ueda —, Abe Shinzo's, Stefan Angrick, Angrick, Asahi Noguchi Organizations: Bank of, U.S, Bank of Japan, Liberal Democratic Party, Moody's, CNBC Locations: Bank of Japan
The Australian dollar hovered close to its highest level of the year on Tuesday, with the central bank set to hold policy steady later and traders focused on any hints of potential near-term easing. The Australian dollar hovered close to its highest level of the year on Tuesday, with the central bank set to hold policy steady later and traders focused on any hints of potential near-term easing. The yen edged up to 143.45 per dollar, but remained close to the center of its September range of 147.20 to 139.58, a more than one-year peak reached on Sept. 16. The yen has retreated amid waning bets for aggressive tightening by the BOJ, particularly after governor Ueda struck a cautious tone of Friday, saying the central bank would spend some time monitoring global growth risks. The BoE kept rates unchanged last Thursday, with its governor saying the central bank had to be "careful not to cut too fast or by too much".
Persons: Kazuo Ueda, , Pan Gongsheng, Ueda, Sterling, BoE Organizations: U.S, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Reuters, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, People's Bank of China, P Global Locations: China
Yen nurses losses as BOJ meets, dollar dogged by rate outlook
  + stars: | 2024-09-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Japanese 10,000 yen, left, and US 100 dollar banknotes arranged for a photograph in Tokyo, Japan, on Friday, May 10, 2024. It has been a tough week for the yen, with the euro gaining 2.2% to 159.46 as speculators booked profit on recent long yen positions. The dollar was up 1.4% for the week at 142.84 yen , though off an overnight high of 143.95. "As such, there is scope to further raise the policy rate while keeping financial conditions accommodative," she said. "The recent financial market ructions and the upcoming Liberal Democratic Party election may make the BOJ more cautious about raising."
Persons: Samara Hammoud, Kazuo Ueda, Sterling Organizations: Bank of, U.S ., CBA, 25bp, Liberal Democratic Party, U.S Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Bank of Japan, Samara, China, U.S . Federal, Bank of England
The Japanese flag flutters over the Bank of Japan (BoJ) head office building (bottom) in Tokyo on April 27, 2022. The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark interest rate steady at "around 0.25%" — the highest rate since 2008 — at the conclusion of a two-day meeting Friday. Japan's economy has recovered moderately, the central bank said in its official statement, while acknowledging "some weakness has been seen in part." BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said last month that the central bank would continue to raise interest rates if the economy and inflation stayed in line with the central bank's projection. On Thursday, The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5.0%.
Persons: BOJ, Kazuo Ueda Organizations: Bank of Japan, The Bank of Japan, Nikkei, U.S . Federal Reserve Locations: Tokyo
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda attends a session in the financial affairs committee at the lower house of parliament on Aug. 23, 2024 in Tokyo. Economists, FX strategists and Japan-focused fund managers are split over the timing of the Bank of Japan's next interest rate hike, according to a new CNBC International survey. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said last month that the central bank would continue to raise interest rates if inflation stayed on course, while also closely monitoring financial market conditions. "We think the central bank will be keen to move gradually and allow the impact of the July rate hike to be fully felt," said Jessica Hinds, director in Fitch Ratings' economics team. CNBC's survey found 18.75% of respondents expect a hike for the October meeting, while another 25% said a hike was possible.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Jessica Hinds Organizations: Japan, FX, Bank of Japan's, CNBC International, CNBC, Fitch Locations: Tokyo, Japan
Japanese former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba speaks during a press conference at the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan on Sept. 6, 2024 in Tokyo, Japan. Tomohiro Ohsumi | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesFormer defense minister Shigeru Ishiba is corporate Japan's top choice to replace Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, edging out Sanae Takaichi, who strives to become the nation's first female premier, a Reuters survey showed on Thursday. About 24% of respondents named Ishiba as the most desirable candidate, compared with 22% for Economic Security Minister Takaichi and 16% for Shinjiro Koizumi, the 43-year-old son of former premier Junichiro Koizumi. watch nowIshiba generally fares better than Koizumi in public opinion polls, but Koizumi has often come out on top among LDP supporters. Ishiba has held cabinet portfolios for agriculture and reviving local economies besides serving as defense minister and LDP policy chief.
Persons: Shigeru Ishiba, Tomohiro Ohsumi, Fumio Kishida, Sanae Takaichi, Kishida, Takaichi, Shinjiro Koizumi, Junichiro Koizumi, Koizumi, Ishiba, Kazuo Ueda Organizations: Defense, Foreign, Club of Japan, Getty, Former, Liberal Democratic Party, LDP, Economic Security, Bank of Japan Locations: Tokyo, Japan, United States
Yen dives as BOJ plays down chance of hikes, soothing markets
  + stars: | 2024-08-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
A Japanese 10,000 yen and a U.S. 100 dollar banknote juxtaposed against each other in Tokyo, Japan, on Monday, June 20, 2016. The yen dropped on Wednesday after an influential Bank of Japan official played down the chances of a near-term rate hike, soothing investors' concerns that a further jump in the Japanese currency could again rock global markets. The yen fell around 2.5% to a session low of 147.94 per dollar following the comments from BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida. "I think it's become increasingly clear that the BOJ hawkish turn last week could be a policy error," said Alvin Tan, head of Asia FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets. The yen's decline was broad based, with the Mexican peso, New Zealand dollar and Australian dollar - all carry trade candidates - surging against the currency.
Persons: Shinichi Uchida, Uchida, Kazuo Ueda's hawkish, it's, Alvin Tan, inching, Rong Ren Goh Organizations: Bank of Japan, Asia FX, RBC Capital Markets, U.S, Eastspring Investments, New Zealand Locations: U.S, Tokyo, Japan, Asia
watch nowGoing into the Japanese market at this moment is akin to catching "a falling knife," Kelvin Tay, regional chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia." Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon"The only reason why the Japanese market is up so strongly in the last two years is because the Japanese yen has been very, very weak. It strengthened sharply after the BOJ raised its benchmark interest rate last week to around 0.25% and decided to trim its purchases of Japanese government bonds. A stronger yen pressurizes Japanese stock markets, which are heavily dominated by trading houses and export-oriented firms by eroding their competitiveness. Ueda also said the 0.5% interest rate level — Japan has not seen that since 2008 — was not a barrier, and rates could go even higher.
Persons: Kelvin Tay, CNBC's, Tay, Kazuo Ueda, Ueda, Organizations: UBS Global Wealth Management, Nikkei, U.S, Bank of, Reuters Locations: Japan
The Japanese government raised rates on Wednesday, breaking from its historically dovish stance. The drop comes just two days after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates in an effort to boost the yen's value amidst higher inflation. The BoJ raised rates from a range of 0% to 0.1% to a benchmark 0.25%. The bank raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years back in March, ending its negative interest-rate policy. Others add that, as the market prices in the rate hikes, it will adjust accordingly.
Persons: , Kazuo Ueda Organizations: Nikkei, Service, Bank of, Bank of Japan, Intel, Bank of America, JPMorgan Locations: Tokyo
Markets have been fully pricing in a 25 basis points of rate cut in September for some time and added to wagers of the Fed going big even after Powell said policymakers are not thinking about a 50-basis-point interest rate cut "right now." Goldman Sachs strategists said Powell comments suggest the bar is not very high for a rate cut in September. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six peers, was little changed at 104.02, having dropped 0.38% on Wednesday. But the BOJ seem keen to get interest rates up and normalize policy. It probably leads to more yen strength, but it could weigh on the local economy and equity markets."
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Goldman Sachs, Kazuo Ueda, Ben Bennett Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, The U.S, Fed, Traders, Reuters, Bank of England, Legal, General Investment Management Locations: The, Japan, Asia, Pacific
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda delivers a speech at the start of issuance of new yen banknotes at the Bank of Japan headquarters in Tokyo on July 3, 2024. Asia-Pacific markets were mixed on Wednesday as investors awaited the Bank of Japan's rate decision and China's business activity data. Economists polled by Reuters expecting the bank to raise rates to 0.1%, though other analysts are expecting a larger hike. The BOJ's benchmark interest rate currently is in a range of 0% to 0.1%. Should the bank raise rates, this will mark the first time since 2010 that its benchmark interest rate stands firmly at 0.1% or higher.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda Organizations: Japan, Bank of Japan, Bank of, Reuters, Reserve Bank Locations: Tokyo, Asia, Pacific
Javier Ghersi | Moment | Getty ImagesJapan's central bank kicks off its July monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, with traders focused on its decision on interest rate and government bond purchases. Economists polled by Reuters expect the BOJ to increase its benchmark interest rate to 0.1% from the current range of 0% to 0.1%. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said in June that the central bank could raise rates "depending on economic, price and financial data and information available at the time," Reuters reported. "Our decision on bond-buying taper and interest rate hikes are two different things," Ueda told the country's parliament. The headline inflation rate has been above the BOJ's 2% target for more than two years.
Persons: Javier Ghersi, Kazuo Ueda, Ueda, Bond Organizations: Bank of, Reuters, ING, Bank of America, realty, Bank of Japan, Japanese Trade Union Confederation Locations: Japan, Bank of Japan
A pedestrian and jogger pass the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) building, during a partial lockdown imposed due to the coronavirus, in Sydney, Australia, on Monday, May 18, 2020. David Gray | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesAsia-Pacific markets rebounded on Tuesday as Wall Street rallied overnight, with investors assessing the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision. The RBA held its benchmark interest rate at 4.35% for its fifth straight meeting, saying that inflation "remains above target and is proving persistent." The RBA also noted that the economic outlook remained "uncertain," with recent data signaling that achieving the inflation target was unlikely to be smooth. Automaker Hyundai also hit a fresh record, gaining about 1.62% on news that it plans to list its India unit in Mumbai.
Persons: David Gray, Kazuo Ueda, Akio Toyoda, Kospi Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg, Getty, Wall Street, Bank, Japan's Nikkei, Reuters, Bank of Japan, Toyota, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Hyundai, CSI Locations: Sydney, Australia, Asia, Pacific, Mumbai, Hong
Dollar firm as euro wallows; yuan brushes aside China data
  + stars: | 2024-06-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The dollar was firm on Monday as the euro hovered near a more than one-month low amid continued concerns about the political outlook in Europe. The yuan held close to a multi-month low after China released a slew of economic data that pointed to an uneven recovery in the world's second-largest economy. A Reuters poll published last week showed 63 of 65 economists thought a first cut would not come until Aug. 1. Elsewhere, the yuan was mostly flat at 7.2550 per dollar after domestic data showed a mixed economic picture in China. China's central bank left a key policy rate unchanged as expected on Monday as the weak yuan continued to hamper policy easing.
Persons: Emmanuel Macron's, Matt Simpson, Neel Kashkari, Index's Simpson, Sterling, Kazuo Ueda, bitcoin Organizations: U.S, Gazprom, European Central Bank, Reuters, Index, . Minneapolis Federal, Bank of England, Bank of Japan Locations: Poland, Bulgaria, Europe, China, U.S
Dollar ebbs as markets await key global inflation reports
  + stars: | 2024-05-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
In this photo illustration, a person is seen holding 100, 50, and 5 U.S. dollar bills in his hand. The dollar waned on Tuesday following a slight pick up in risk appetite, but it held tight ranges against its peers ahead of key inflation data from major economies this week that markets are looking to for guidance on the global interest rate outlook. The euro was a touch firmer at $1.0860 despite some dovish comments from European Central Bank policymakers on Monday and data showing German business morale stagnated in May. Down Under, the Aussie edged 0.03% higher to $0.6657, with the country's monthly consumer price index data also due on Wednesday. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Monday the central bank will proceed cautiously with inflation-targeting frameworks, noting that some challenges are "uniquely difficult" for Japan after years of ultra-easy monetary policy.
Persons: Rodrigo Catril, Sterling, NAB's, Kazuo Ueda, bitcoin Organizations: U.S, European Central Bank, ECB, National Australia Bank, New Zealand, Down, Bank of Japan Locations: Asia, Britain, United States, U.S, Tokyo, Japan
Dollar regains momentum as yen struggles
  + stars: | 2024-05-08 | by ( Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar was back on the front foot on Wednesday, making modest gains after earlier losses from renewed bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, while the yen eased towards the 155 per dollar level and kept intervention risks from Tokyo high. The dollar was back on the front foot on Wednesday, making modest gains after earlier losses from renewed bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, while the yen eased towards the 155 per dollar level and kept intervention risks from Tokyo high. Analysts have said that any intervention from Tokyo would only serve as a temporary respite for the yen, given stark interest rate differentials between the U.S. and Japan remain. Analysts expect the central bank to leave the door open to lower interest rates as early as June. The Australian dollar fell 0.2% to $0.6585, pressured in part by a less hawkish outlook from the Reserve Bank of Australia than anticipated after it held interest rates steady on Tuesday.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Shunichi Suzuki, they'll, Carol Kong, Neel Kashkari, Kashkari, Rodrigo Catril Organizations: Federal, U.S, Bank of Japan, country's Finance, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, New Zealand, greenback, Minneapolis, Minneapolis Fed, National Australia Bank, Bank of, Reserve Bank of Australia Locations: Tokyo, Beijing, Japan, Bank, U.S, Minneapolis
An undated photographic illustration of Japanese yen and the U.S. dollar bank notes. The yen touched 160.03 against the greenback on Monday, for the first time since 1990, but strengthened to 156 levels later that day amid speculation about an intervention by Japanese authorities. Japanese authorities are yet to issue an official statement confirming their role in propping up the currency. In the last few decades, while other global central banks have tightened their policies, Japan had maintained its ultra-loose policy, leading to concentrated carry trades in the Japanese yen. Market participants believe Japanese authorities will intervene further to prop up the currency.
Persons: Glowimages, they've, Nicholas Smith, Kazuo Ueda, Edward Yardeni Organizations: U.S, Glowimages, CNBC, Bank of America Global Research, Bank of Japan, Bank of, Federal Reserve, Yardeni Research Locations: propping, Japan, U.S, Bank of Japan
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