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South Korea's central bank has cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%, the first rate cut from the BOK since the Federal Reserve started tightening its monetary policy in March 2022. This was in line with a poll of economists from Reuters, who forecasted a rate cut. At that time, South Korea's inflation stood at 2.6%, but climbed sharply to hit 6.3% in July 2022, its highest in over 20 years. Oh noted that macro conditions are supportive of a rate cut, with a "favourable" inflationary backdrop. Oh predicts that after the October cut of 25 basis points, three more consecutive cuts will follow on a quarterly basis, eventually bringing the BOK's benchmark interest rate to 2.5%.
Persons: BOK, Morgan Stanley's, Kathleen Oh, We've, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Bank of, Federal Reserve, Reuters Locations: Bank of Korea, Seoul, Korea's, Korea
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBank of Korea likely to cut rates before inflation hits the 2% target: Morgan StanleyKathleen Oh of Morgan Stanley discusses the effectiveness of fiscal provisions for households in Korea, and her interest rate outlook for the Bank of Korea.
Persons: Morgan Stanley Kathleen Oh, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Email Bank of, Bank of Locations: Email Bank of Korea, Korea, Bank of Korea
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe're a lot more bearish on South Korea's 2023 economic outlook, says economistKathleen Oh of BofA Securities says external demand has been under pressure, but domestic consumption has been "holding up."
Even as the global economy is headed into a recession, South Korea's economy saw a small growth backed by what one analyst attributed to "revenge spending" as the country reopens. Gross domestic product rose 0.3% for the July-September period, according to Bank of Korea data — the slowest quarterly growth seen in a year. "I think that the momentum domestically is rather resilient," said Kathleen Oh, Bank of America's Korea economist on CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia." "Consumption is holding up strong with the reopening and pent-up demand in services, we're actually seeing quite strong 'revenge spending' in leisure, entertainment and travel," she said, adding that domestic demand is likely to support continued growth until the rest of this year. South Korea's third quarter GDP report showed growth was backed mostly by consumer spending and investment in facilities, which grew 1.9% and 5% respectively.
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