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☆ JPMorgan raises 2024 recession odds to 35%
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-08 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The bank raised its probability for a U.S. or global recession to 35% by year end, chief global economist Bruce Kasman told clients in a Wednesday note. Meanwhile, JPMorgan kept its odds for a recessionary period by the second half of 2025 at 45%. But traders got better news on the labor market front on Thursday, with the volume of weekly jobless claims coming in lower than economists expected. To be sure, despite raising his odds, Kasman said investors should not assume all signs point to a recession. In fact, Kasman described his increase to near-term recession risk as modest.

Persons: Bruce Kasman, Kasman, Goldman Sachs Organizations: JPMorgan, Federal, Fed Locations: U.S

☆ JPMorgan drops its recession call for the first half and now sees a 55% chance of a soft landing for the global economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

JPMorgan scrapped its recession forecast for the first half of 2024 and now sees 55% odds of a soft landing. The bank sees a 30% chance that global expansion persists without major policy easing. AdvertisementJPMorgan has backed off from its recession forecast for the first half of 2024 and says it now sees a 55% chance of a "soft landing" for the global economy through late next year. Related storiesBut now, with upbeat data painting a rosier picture, the bank sees a 55% chance of a soft landing scenario extending through at least the end of next year. On the earnings side, corporates in developed markets surpassed expectations last year, with margins holding close to record highs, demonstrating surprisingly resilient profitability despite high policy rates.

Persons: —, Bruce Kasman, Joseph Lupton, Kasman, Lupton, Jamie Dimon, Dimon Organizations: JPMorgan, Service

☆ Asia's tech industry is recovering on chip boom amid global economic uncertainty, JPMorgan says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( Sheila Chiang | In Sheilachiang | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

SINGAPORE – Asia-Pacific's tech sector has been growing on the back of the semiconductor boom even as other industries struggle amid global macro uncertainty, according to investment bank JPMorgan. "Tech has been recovering, that's why Asia has done reasonably well in the second half of last year. China industry benefited, North Asia obviously benefited more from it," Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan said in a media briefing on Tuesday. Global tech spending weakened in 2023 while layoffs rose, said Deloitte in a report on tech industry's 2024 outlook. The recovery in tech is significant as other industries are still struggling.

Persons: Bruce Kasman, Deloitte, Ong Sin Beng Organizations: JPMorgan, Tech, Global, Deloitte, Nvidia Locations: SINGAPORE – Asia, that's, Asia, China, North Asia, U.S

☆ Asia stocks swing lower, gold climbs as oil slips
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

One mover was gold, which climbed to $2,009.87 an ounce and briefly hit a six-month top of $2,017.82. S&P 500 futures eased 0.2% and Nasdaq futures lost 0.4%. "Indeed, this message of patience is likely to be notable in upcoming DM policy communications in response to recent financial market developments." Markets priced in 80 basis points of U.S. easing next year, and around 82 basis points for the ECB. Reports suggest African oil producers are seeking higher caps for 2024, while Saudi Arabia may extend its additional 1 million bpd voluntary production cut, which is due to expire at the end of December.

Persons: Issei Kato, Jerome Powell, Bruce Kasman, Christine Lagarde, Brent, Wayne Cole, Stephen Coates Organizations: REUTERS, Nikkei, SYDNEY, Japan's Nikkei, Nasdaq, Federal, JPMorgan, European Central Bank, EU, ECB, CBA, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, United States, Europe, Asia, Pacific, Saudi Arabia, OPEC

☆ Asia stocks turn lower, gold jumps as oil slips
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

S&P 500 futures eased 0.2%, and Nasdaq futures lost 0.4%. That in turn has been a drag on the dollar which has lost 3% on a basket of major counterparts this month . Reports suggest African oil producers are seeking higher caps for 2024, while Saudi Arabia may extend its additional 1 million bpd voluntary production cut, which is due to expire at the end of December. "Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ faces a challenge in convincing markets that it can help keep oil markets tight in 2024," wrote commodity analysts at CBA in a note. "OPEC+ will have to show significant supply discipline, or at least jawbone such ability, to alleviate market worries of a deep surplus in oil markets next year."

Persons: Issei Kato, Jerome Powell, Bruce Kasman, Christine Lagarde, Brent, Wayne Cole, Stephen Coates Organizations: REUTERS, Nikkei, SYDNEY, Japan's Nikkei, Nasdaq, Federal, JPMorgan, European Central Bank, EU, ECB, Australian, CBA, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, United States, Europe, Asia, Pacific, Saudi Arabia, OPEC

☆ Asia stocks steady ahead of inflation tests, OPEC+ meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The approach of month end could also cause some caution given the hefty gains investors are sitting on. "Indeed, this message of patience is likely to be notable in upcoming DM policy communications in response to recent financial market developments." Markets priced in almost 90 basis points of U.S. easing next year, and around 83 basis points for the ECB. The oil market faces a tense few days ahead of a meeting of OPEC+ on Nov. 30, a meting that had originally been slated for Sunday but was postponed as producers struggled to find a unanimous position. Reports suggest African oil producers are seeking higher caps for 2024, while Saudi Arabia may extend its additional 1 million bpd voluntary production cut, which is due to expire at the end of December.

Persons: Issei Kato, Jerome Powell, Bruce Kasman, Christine Lagarde, Brent, Wayne Cole, Christopher Cushing Organizations: REUTERS, Nikkei, SYDNEY, Japan's Nikkei, Nasdaq, Federal, JPMorgan, European Central Bank, EU, ECB, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, United States, Europe, Asia, Pacific, Saudi Arabia

☆ Asia shares extend rally on hopes of early rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"This year's better-than-expected U.S. supply-side performance raises hopes for a soft landing," said Bruce Kasman, head of economic research at JPMorgan. Futures markets swung to imply a 90% chance the Fed was done hiking, and an 86% chance the first policy easing would come as soon as June. Markets also imply around an 80% probability the European Central Bank will be cutting rates by April, while the Bank of England is seen easing in August. An odd man out is Australia's central bank, which is considered likely to resume hiking rates at a policy meeting on Tuesday as inflation stays stubbornly high. "We look for the Fed Funds rate to fall to 3-3.25%, the ECB depo rate to 3% and BoE Bank Rate to 4.25% by end-2024."

Persons: Issei Kato, Bruce Kasman, disinflation, Jerome Powell, BoE, Brent, Wayne Cole, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Nikkei, SYDNEY, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Futures, European Central Bank, Bank of, ECB, The Bank of Japan, South, Nasdaq, Fed, NatWest Markets, Sunday, Palestinian, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, United States, Europe, U.S, Bank of England, Asia, Pacific, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Russia, East, Israel, Gaza

☆ Asia shares slip on Middle East woes, rising yields
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-23 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Passersby walk past an electric monitor displaying the Japanese yen exchange rate against the U.S. dollar outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan October 4, 2023. Bonds were also under pressure as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields crept to within a whisker of 5.0%, pushing borrowing costs up across the globe and testing equity valuations. On Monday, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) slipped 0.4% to its lowest in almost a year. Both S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures added 0.2%, underpinned by hopes a rush of earnings reports this week will provide some support. Oil prices gave back some ground in the absence of any disruption to supplies from the Middle East, at least for now.

Persons: Issei Kato, Bonds, Israel, Bruce Kasman, outperformance, Gold, Brent, Wayne Cole, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Nikkei, Washington, European Central Bank and Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve, Japan's Nikkei, FTSE, Nasdaq, Microsoft, IBM, Intel, JPMorgan, Bank of Japan, Swiss, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, China, SYDNEY, Gaza, Lebanon, Asia, Pacific

☆ Asian shares fall after brutal central bank week, yen under spotlight
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A passerby walks past an electric monitor displaying various countries' stock price index outside a bank in Tokyo, Japan, March 22, 2023. The yen was jittery near the closely watched 150 per dollar level amid intervention fears, after the Bank of Japan made no change to its dovish monetary policy. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) dropped 0.6%, edging closer to a ten-month low plumbed just last week. Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan, expects good news from U.S. and European inflation results this week, which should show low core inflation readings. The yen last traded at 148.41 per dollar, after hitting a fresh 10-month low of 148.49 earlier in the day.

Persons: Issei Kato, Kazuo Ueda, Hong, HSI, Louis Kuijs, Andrew Lilley, Bruce Kasman, Stella Qiu, Sonali Paul, Himani Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Bank of Japan, Japan's Nikkei, U.S, JPMorgan, U.S ., Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, China, U.S, Europe, Asia, Pacific, U.S . Federal

☆ JPMorgan's Bruce Kasman: Ongoing labor strikes are expected to distort payroll numbers
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJPMorgan's Bruce Kasman: Ongoing labor strikes are expected to distort payroll numbersBruce Kasman, JPMorgan head of global economic research and chief economist, and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to discuss PCE data coming in online with a soft landing scenario, jobless claims data signaling a healthy labor market, and the impact workers strikes are having on payroll numbers.

Persons: Bruce Kasman, Steve Liesman Organizations: JPMorgan

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with JPMorgan's Bruce Kasman
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with JPMorgan's Bruce KasmanBruce Kasman, JPMorgan head of global economic research and chief economist, and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to discuss PCE data coming in online with a soft landing scenario, jobless claims data signaling a healthy labor market, and the impact workers strikes are having on payroll numbers.

Persons: JPMorgan's Bruce Kasman Bruce Kasman, Steve Liesman Organizations: JPMorgan

Fed Chair Jerome Powell was almost brusque in his re-statement of the central bank's anti-inflation commitment at the annual Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. Tracking that rather than more-skittish policy rate futures would have proved a better guide to how subsequent months panned out and to the summer doldrums in bonds and stocks. And yet the September meeting could still be the 'big reveal' as it sees publication of the Fed's updated 'dot plot' that will likely show just where they then see the cycle crest. San Francisco Fed chart on dispersion of Fed rate projections by horizonSan Francisco Fed index of Fed uncertaintyACCIDENT OR DESIGN? As to whether the Fed is guiding everyone to safe and happy place, there continues to be sceptics about the 'soft landing'.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Jackson, that's, it's, Andrew Foerster, Zinnia Martinez, Bruce Kasman, Joseph Lupton Organizations: Federal, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Atlanta, San Francisco Fed, San, Fed, San Francisco, JPMorgan, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, synch, San Francisco Fed

☆ Asia shares up as China extends rally; Japanese yields a risk
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-31 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) climbed 1.1%, having gained almost 6% so far in July to reach a five-month high. Figures due this week include the U.S. ISM surveys on manufacturing and services, the July payrolls report and European inflation. Investors are still pondering the implications of Friday's shock decision by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to lift the lid on bond yields, in a step away from its ultra-easy policies. Analysts at BofA estimate the BOJ's bond buying added $1.3 trillion to global liquidity in the past 18 months and provided a low floor for global rates, so any sustained rise in Japanese government bond yields could ripple though other bond markets. Japanese 10-year yields climbed further to 0.6% on Monday, still short of the new cap of 1.0%.

Persons: Yen, Bruce Kasman, Ray Attrill, Brent, Wayne Cole, Jamie Freed Organizations: Nikkei, Apple SYDNEY, Apple, JPMorgan, U.S, Bank of England, Reserve Bank of, Nasdaq, Apple Inc, Western Digital Corp, Caterpillar Inc, Starbucks Corp, Devices, Bank of Japan, National Australia Bank, Thomson Locations: China, Beijing, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia

☆ Bank of England rates set to peak at 5.75% by year-end: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Shaloo Shrivastava | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BENGALURU, July 25 (Reuters) - The Bank of England will raise its Bank Rate by a quarter-point to 5.25% on August 3, making borrowing the costliest since early 2008, and hike twice more by the year-end as price pressures persist, a Reuters poll showed. While the median peak rate forecast was 5.75%, nearly half of respondents, 29 of 61, still said 5.50%, the same as a June 26 poll. As recently as a June 14 poll, the consensus was for Bank Rate to peak at 5.00%. Predictions for Bank Rate at year-end were in a wide range. Asked where core inflation will be at year-end, nearly two thirds of respondents, 14 of 22, said slightly lower.

Persons: BoE, Bruce Kasman, Morgan, Stefan Koopman, Shaloo Shrivastava, Mumal Rathore, Pranoy Krishna, Rahul Trivedi, Jonathan Cable, Ross Finley, Barbara Lewis Organizations: Bank of England, Bank, Company, Rabobank, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, J.P, British

☆ The economy is not breaking like people expected coming into the year, says JPMorgan's Bruce Kasman
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe economy is not breaking like people expected coming into the year, says JPMorgan's Bruce KasmanBruce Kasman JPMorgan Chase head of global economic research, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk inflation data, the economy at large, and more.

Persons: JPMorgan's Bruce Kasman Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan's Bruce Kasman Bruce Kasman JPMorgan Chase Organizations: JPMorgan's Bruce Kasman Bruce Kasman JPMorgan

In Europe, the broad pan-regional STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.34% on expectations non-U.S. stocks will outperform in the months ahead. Sterling , which has gained 4.4% against the dollar this year, earlier hit a 12-month high of 1.2668 ahead of an expected Bank of England rate increase on Thursday. The dollar rose 0.01% against the yen. "The survey should point to further broad-based tightening in bank lending standards," said Bruce Kasman, head of economic research at JPMorgan. Bullion regained ground after a sharp retreat in the previous session, ahead of the inflation data that could shed light on the outlook for U.S. interest rates.

☆ Asia shares inch higher, U.S. inflation test looms
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"The survey should point to further broad-based tightening in bank lending standards," said Bruce Kasman, head of economic research at JPMorgan. "Though our analysis suggests that the impact of a credit tightening against an otherwise healthy backdrop tends to be limited." S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were both off 0.1%, after jumping on Friday in the wake of Apple's (AAPL.O) upbeat results. The dollar stood at 135.19 yen , with the euro at 148.93 and not far from its recent 15-year peak of 151.55. Brent was last up 3 cents at $75.33 a barrel, while U.S. crude added 5 cents to $71.39 per barrel.

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with JPMorgan's Bruce Kasman, Citi's Steven Wieting, and Allspring's Margaret Patel
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with JPMorgan's Bruce Kasman, Citi's Steven Wieting, and Allspring's Margaret PatelBruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan, Steven Wieting, chief investment strategist at Citi Global Wealth Investments, and Margaret Patel, senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, join 'The Exchange' to discuss global market action, consequences of the Fed's aggressive rate approach and anticipated changes to lending policies.

☆ Monetary policy tightening works through banking channels, not just financial markets, says Citi's Wieting
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMonetary policy tightening works through banking channels, not just financial markets, says Citi's WietingBruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan; Steven Wieting, chief investment strategist at Citi Global Wealth Investments; and Margaret Patel, senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, join 'The Exchange' to discuss global market action, consequences of the Fed's aggressive rate approach and anticipated changes to lending policies.

☆ Brace for a 'wrathful Old-Testament-style' central bank reaction to sticky inflation that could cause a deep US recession, says JPMorgan
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Prepare for a more forceful "Old-Testament style" central bank reaction to stubborn inflation, JPMorgan economists say. "The risk of triggering a more wrathful Old-Testament style central bank reaction is on the rise," they said in a note. Such aggressive policy reaction could lead the US economy into a deeper recession later this year, they added. "The risk of triggering a more wrathful Old-Testament style central bank reaction is on the rise. Possible scenarios projected by the analysts include the Fed ending rate hikes next quarter, with its cumulative rate hikes of about 500 basis points since early 2022 leading to a US-concentrated recession later this year.

Amid a confounding mix of economic signals, Wall Street shares edged up on Monday, a sign of potential bargain hunting. U.S. two-year Treasury yields , the most sensitive to shifts in interest-rate expectations, have risen almost 80 bps in that time, while the S&P 500 (.SPX) has lost 6% from Feb. 2's five-month highs. On Monday, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 2 basis points to 4.785%, while 10-year Treasury yields dropped 2.3 basis points to 3.926%. Bruce Kasman, head of economic research at JPMorgan, has added another quarter-point hike to the ECB outlook, taking it to 100 basis points. The dollar has been the main beneficiary of the shift in expectations for Fed rates.

A raft of euro zone inflation figures will also shape investor expectations for next month's central bank meeting. On Monday, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 0.6 basis points to 4.799%, while 10-year Treasury yields dropped 2.9 basis points to 3.922%. Bruce Kasman, head of economic research at JPMorgan, has added another quarter-point hike to the ECB outlook, taking it to 100 basis points. The dollar has been the main beneficiary of the shift in expectations for Fed rates. Additional reporting by Wayne Cole in Sydney; Editing by Susan Fenton and Christina FincherOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Asia stocks feel rate pain, dollar on a roll
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

China has manufacturing surveys and the National People's Congress kicks off at the weekend and will see new economic policy targets and policies, as well as a reshuffling of government officials. S&P 500 futures were flat, while Nasdaq futures edged up 0.1%. Fed futures now have rates peaking around 5.42%, implying at least three more hikes from the current 4.50% to 4.75% band. Markets have also nudged up the likely rate tops for the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. Ten-year Treasury bonds also yield more than twice the estimated dividend yield of the S&P 500 Index, and with much less risk.

☆ Asia stocks ease, bonds brace for U.S. data test
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

read moreOfficials declined to say whether it resembled the large white Chinese balloon that was shot down earlier this month. The near-term direction for assets could well be determined by U.S. data on consumer prices and retail sales this week, with much resting on whether inflation continued to slow in January. Median forecasts are for headline and core consumer prices to rise 0.4% for the month, with sales rebounding by 1.6%. There is also a full slate of Fed officials speaking this week to provide a timely reaction to the data. read moreThe dollar was last holding at 131.50 yen , after bouncing from a low of 129.80 on Friday.

☆ Asia shares slip, dollar up as U.S. rate outlook shifts
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Amamiya has been closely involved with the Bank of Japan's current super-easy policies and is considered by markets to be more dovish than some other contenders. In equity markets, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) fell 0.7%, with South Korea (.KS11) down 1.0%. Likewise, yields on two-year Treasuries were now up at 4.35%, compared to 4.09% before the data, while 10-year yields climbed to 3.56%. Policy makers from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will also be making appearances. Higher rates, and thus yields, will stretch equity valuations and challenge the market's bullish outlook for assets including commodities.

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