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Money managers through Nov. 28 extended their K.C. wheat net short to near 50,000 futures and options contracts, their largest since May 2019 and among their biggest-ever shorts. Grain futures sank in the week ended Nov. 28, including a 3.2% decline in CBOT March corn and a 1.8% slide in March wheat . CBOT March wheat found contract lows on Nov. 27 but touched three-week highs by Friday, presumably motivated by short covering. Funds in that week cut their net long in CBOT soybean futures and options to 67,562 contracts from 81,587 a week earlier.

Persons: Dane Rhys, Corn, Karen Braun, Chris Reese Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Deerfield , Ohio, U.S, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, Kansas City, Minneapolis, Brazil

A truck lines up to be loaded with soybeans in a farm in the city of Primavera do Leste in the central Brazilian state of Mato Grosso January 29, 2013. The crop-heavy northern section of Brazil’s top soy and corn state Mato Grosso experienced the driest October-November period in at least a quarter century. October-November precipitation in North Mato Grosso BrazilMato Grosso grows about 27% of Brazil’s soybeans and accounts for almost 30% of the country’s soybean export program, the world’s largest. The delay in the 2020-21 soybean crop reduced Mato Grosso’s second corn yields since it pushed the sensitive development period back into a historically drier time frame. Mato Grosso accounts for two-thirds of all Brazilian corn shipments.

Persons: Mato, Brazil Mato, Karen Braun Organizations: Mato Grosso, Brazil’s, European, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Primavera, Mato, NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Mato Grosso, Brazil

NAPERVILLE, Illinois, Nov 28 (Reuters) - It is rare that U.S. corn supplies build in a marketing year while soybean supplies slip, but that is exactly what is happening in 2023-24, keeping soybean prices relatively elevated versus corn. The U.S. Department of Agriculture pegs total U.S. corn supplies in 2023-24 to rise 10% on the year, while soybean inventory is seen shrinking 3%. U.S. corn versus soybean supply: Year-on-yearThe 2007-08 rise in corn and fall in soybean supplies was policy-driven, and the only other recent, directionally similar year was 2003-04, when the U.S. soybean crop fell victim to rare, widespread pest issues as well as dry weather. USDA’s long-term projections issued earlier this month suggest just that, pegging 2024 U.S. corn acres at 91 million and soybeans at 87 million versus 83.6 million in 2023. Interestingly, USDA in the couple of years leading up to 2007-08 had also overestimated U.S. soybean acres in March and undershot corn.

Persons: Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Department, Agriculture, USDA, Crop Watch, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, Chicago, North Dakota

Money managers’ net short in CBOT wheat futures and options rose to a 23-week high of 108,176 futures and options contracts as of Nov. 21 versus 89,271 a week earlier. That is funds’ most bearish corn stance since June 2020. wheat futures and optionsFunds’ Minneapolis wheat views remain near record-bearish, though they were slight net buyers in the week ended Nov. 21. On Monday, CBOT corn and all U.S. hard and soft wheat futures hit contract lows during trading, including the lowest price for most-active corn since December 2020. Open interest in CBOT soybean meal futures and options surged 4% during the week to another record of 671,039 contracts.

Persons: soyoil, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Department of Agriculture, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, South America, Chicago, Kansas City, Minneapolis, K.C, U.S, Brazil

The Vegetation Health Index (VHI), a U.S. government product, suggests vegetation in Mato Grosso may be in the worst state since 2015, which preceded one of the state’s worst growing seasons. The other comparable one was in 2020, though the following soybean crop was normal. Soils in Mato Grosso lack in nutrients and quality as compared with the best U.S. The state is expected to grow 27% and 38% of Brazil’s total 2023-24 soy and corn crops, respectively. Nationally, Brazil’s soybean planting was 68% as of last Thursday, the lowest rate since 2019-20 and behind the year-ago 80%.

Persons: Rio, Mato Grosso, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Lucas, El Nino, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Mato Grosso, Brazil, NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Mato, U.S, Mato Grosso’s

Money managers through Nov. 14 expanded their net long in CBOT soybean meal futures and options to 131,404 contracts from 111,987 a week earlier, also on new longs. January meal futures surged 21% during those five weeks and nearly 4% in the most recent week, reaching their highest ever levels for the date. The pre-2023 record open interest in meal futures and options was 594,016 contracts set in mid-2018 after drought significantly cut down top meal exporter Argentina’s soybean crop. March CBOT wheat futures rose fractionally during the week, and funds trimmed nearly 3,000 contracts from their huge net short, resulting in 89,271 futures and options contracts. wheat, funds have been very heavy sellers of spring wheat futures since late July.

Persons: Gustavo Bonato, Soyoil, Karen Braun, Diane Craft Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Campo Verde, Mato Grosso, Brazil, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, United States, U.S, Kansas City, Minneapolis

Additionally, tightness in U.S. soybean meal supplies related to Argentina’s extreme crop shortfall earlier this year has lent significant support to soybean and soymeal futures lately. Managed money net position in CBOT soybean futures and optionsIt was funds’ biggest net buying week in soybeans since early April, and both new longs and short-covering played an instrumental role. Managed money net position in CBOT soybean meal futures and optionsThe new managed money meal long is the biggest since mid-March and the largest ever for the date. CBOT soybean meal on Monday traded up the daily limit at one point, reaching the most-active contract’s highest since mid-March and notching another contract high for December meal. Most-active CBOT soybeans on Monday hit their highest price since Aug. 31, and most-active corn futures rose 2.9%, their biggest single-day percentage gain since July 24.

Persons: Karen Braun, Leslie Adler Organizations: U.S . Commodity Futures Trading Commission, China, U.S . Department of Agriculture, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE, Ill, Brazil, Chicago

USDA pegged U.S. corn yield at 174.9 bushels per acre, up from 173 last month and above nearly all estimates, which on average predicted a slight increase. It was the most bearish corn yield in a November report since 2017. That could negatively impact Brazil’s second corn production, as was the case after the 2015-16 El Nino, rerouting corn demand to the United States. USDA left Brazil’s 2023-24 soy crop unchanged at 163 million metric tons this month, but it raised the prior crop by 2 million tons to 158 million, suggesting exports are outperforming prior crop expectations. However, USDA has flashed 2.85 million tons (105 million bushels) of U.S. soybean sales so far this week, mostly to China and unknown destinations.

Persons: Dane Rhys, El, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S . Department, USDA, El Nino, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Deerfield , Ohio, U.S, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Brazil, United States, China

The trade’s idea of corn yield lines up with past similar years. Other than 2023, the last three times that soybean yields fell in August, September and October were 2008, 2003 and 1999. Crop Watch results generally support these predictions since the 11-field soybean yield ended up close to the season’s lowest score while corn yields bounced a bit at the end. It has been 15 years since the agency lowered Brazil’s soy crop between October and November. 2024Without severe crop losses in Brazil’s soy or corn this year, U.S. supplies, especially corn, could balloon in 2024-25.

Persons: USDA’s, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Department of Agriculture, South, Reuters, SOUTH AMERICA, Consultancy, USDA, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, USDA, Mato Grosso, Argentina

Looking at export inspection data versus export sales data suggests that the actual shipments, not demand, are the standout factor. USDA predicts U.S. wheat exports at a 52-year low of 19.05 million tons in 2023-24, which began on June 1. As of Oct. 26, export sales totaled 11.4 million tons, some 60% of the full-year target, above the date’s recent average of 58%. USDA’s projections call for 2023-24 U.S. wheat exports to decline 8% on the year, and export sales were down 7% as of Oct. 26. Since June 1, wheat export inspections at the U.S. Gulf are down 40% from a year ago, while the Pacific Northwest volume is down 16%.

Persons: Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Weekly, U.S . Department of Agriculture, USDA, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, States, U.S, Mississippi, Gulf, Pacific, Pacific Northwest, China, United States

Unusually hot and dry weather in Mato Grosso has caught traders’ attention. October weather in North Mato Grosso BrazilIn Brazil’s southern state of Parana, October rainfall totaled around 350 mm (13.8 inches), the most for any month in at least 25 years. It is unhelpful in this analysis that there have not been many stronger El Ninos in recent years for comparison. Soy yield was 13% below trend that year, but otherwise, soy yields rarely miss in Mato Grosso, making it difficult to detect an impending disaster. In the south, Parana’s rainiest soy-growing seasons have most often coincided with El Ninos, but actual yield outcomes are mixed.

Persons: El Nino, Mato Grosso’s, Mato, La Nina, El, Karen Braun, Rod Nickel Organizations: Mato Grosso, Farmers, El Ninos, El Nino, Iowa, La, El, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Primavera, Mato, NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Brazil, Mato Grosso, North Mato, Brazil’s, Parana, U.S, Southern, Argentina

But national winter wheat yield ended up only about 2% below the long-term trend in 2023. Winter wheat there is only 32% GE, down from the week’s five-year average of 43% but above the year-ago 24%. Winter wheat is 42% and 41% GE, respectively, equal to the Oklahoma average and 13 points above the Texas one. Winter wheat at 47% GE is among the lower ratings for the date historically, but it is not necessarily in poor company. U.S. winter wheat conditions, fall versus springKaren Braun is a market analyst for Reuters.

Persons: Amira Karaoud, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S . Department of Agriculture, GE, Nino, El Nino, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Shelbyville , Kentucky, U.S, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, United States, Kansas, Illinois, Ohio, Missouri , Kentucky, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Texas, Southern

Managed money net position in CBOT soybean meal futures and optionsMost-active CBOT soymeal futures jumped 8.6% in the week ended Oct. 24 on increasing international demand for U.S. soybean meal, tightening up the domestic market. Money managers flipped back to a net long in CBOT soybean futures and options through Oct. 24, snapping a seven-week selling streak. The new net long of 7,753 contracts compares with a net short of 1,984 in the prior week, which was funds’ first net short in soybeans since April 2020. Money managers cut their net long in CBOT soyoil futures and options to 11,523 contracts from 20,729 a week earlier. Spring wheat futures are off 25% from their July top.

Persons: Jim Young, Karen Braun, Diane Craft Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Minooka , Illinois, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Argentina, Minneapolis, Kansas City

The potential timing of those sales is uncertain, as similar agreements in the past have sometimes led to immediate announcements of large U.S. export sales while other times they have not. Soybean Export Council (USSEC) on Tuesday were also unusually thin as neither volumes nor commodities were specified as normal. Therefore, large daily sales announcements from the U.S. Department of Agriculture are not guaranteed to follow. Some of the other biggest daily soybean sales also immediately followed signings. U.S. soybean export sales to China, October 12Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters.

Persons: Stringer, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, China, Export, U.S . Department of Agriculture, Brazil, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Wuhan, Hubei, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Iowa, U.S, Beijing, China, China’s U.S

Several attendees in the virtual meeting noted that U.S. corn yield has landed below USDA’s trend yield for five consecutive years now, prompting questions as to whether the calculation will be revisited for future seasons. The market’s main grievance with the recent yield pattern is that negative price implications could arise if trend yield starts out too high, since it may cause U.S. corn supplies to be overstated early on. Trend yield is set forth by USDA’s World Board and is based off a publicly documented model written in 2012. They also suggested that consecutive bad weather years can skew the view of true trend yield. In the last five years including 2023, corn yield fell below trend in each year and by an average of 6.1 bpa (3.4%).

Persons: Daniel Acker, Karen Braun, Marguerita Choy Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S . Department, USDA’s, Agency, USDA, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Tiskilwa , Illinois, U.S, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois

National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data on Monday revealed U.S. soybean oil stocks among NOPA members totaled 1.108 billion pounds as of Sept. 30. A mid-year drawdown of U.S. soyoil stocks is common, but this year’s pace is unusual. The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects total domestic soybean oil use at a record 27.45 billion pounds in 2023-24, which began Oct. 1. The most actively traded Chicago soybean oil futures are at three-year lows for the date, down 20% from a year ago. Most-active CBOT soybean oil futuresRISING IMPORTSU.S. soybean oil stocks may be falling, but both the reduction in exports and influx of vegetable oil from overseas have been somewhat offsetting.

Persons: Jason Lee, Stocks, Karen Braun, Miral Organizations: Industry, Trade Co, REUTERS, Rights, Oilseed Processors, U.S . Department of Agriculture, NOPA, U.S, Higher, USDA, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Qufu, Shandong province, China, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, Chicago, United States, USDA

Three of the 11 Crop Watch producers increased their corn yield expectations this week, the most notable coming in eastern Iowa. A 3.77 for average Crop Watch corn yield is still below what was expected in July and August, and it would land above the 2022 yield but below that of 2021. Producers in Indiana and western Iowa also increased their Crop Watch corn expectations this week based on results from other fields. Final Crop Watch soybean yield for 2023 is likely to end at 3.5, up from 3.48 a week earlier. Only five of the 22 Crop Watch fields have yet to be touched, all corn: Both Dakotas, western Iowa, Indiana and Ohio.

Persons: Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: . Crop Watch, Crop Watch, Producers, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota, Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, North Dakota, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, The North Dakota, Griggs County, Stutsman County

During that week, money managers cut their net short in CBOT corn futures and options to 112,691 contracts from 159,433 a week earlier, marking their biggest round of net buying since late July. Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsDecember corn futures had reached their U.S. harvest lows by mid-September in 2016, 2018 and 2019, and so far, the harvest low for December 2023 corn sits on Sept. 19 at $4.67-3/4 per bushel. Money managers have not held a bearish soy view since April 2020 but have come close a couple times. Managed money net position in CBOT soybean futures and optionsHowever, overall speculators’ soybean net short was preserved through Oct. 10 as other reportable traders were only slight net buyers during the week. That small net short was established in the prior week for the first time since March 2020.

Persons: Gleb Garanich, Wheat, Karen Braun, Deepa Babington Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S ., U.S . Department, Agriculture’s, USDA, U.S . Renewable, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Bilohiria, Khmelnytskyi, Ukraine, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago

1 corn exporter to Brazil last year when the South American country harvested a breakthrough crop, just months after China gave the green light to Brazilian corn imports. The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Thursday maintained 2023-24 Brazilian corn production at 129 million metric tons, identical to the initial May projection. Conab predicts Brazil’s second corn harvest, which supplies the country's exports, could fall nearly 11% on the year to 91.2 million tons. China, like the United States, is winding down its 2023-24 corn harvest. On an October-September basis, USDA sees 2023-24 Brazilian corn exports at 59 million tons versus 53.7 million in 2022-23, and U.S. shipments are pegged at 52.5 million tons in 2023-24 versus 43 million in 2022-23.

Persons: Farmer Roger Hadley, John Deere, Bing Guan, Conab, Brazil Karen Braun, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, United, U.S . Department of Agriculture, El, USDA, U.S, USA, Brazil, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Woodburn , Indiana, U.S, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, United States, Brazil, China, USDA, Northern, Southern, Mexico, Japan

In the week ended Oct. 3, money managers slashed their net long position in CBOT soybean futures and options to 5,001 contracts from 30,058 a week earlier. New shorts and exiting longs both played a role, and money managers have not held a net short in beans since April 2020. Money managers extended their sizable net short in CBOT wheat futures and options to 98,788 contracts from 96,384 a week earlier. CBOT corn futures added about 1% late last week, touching $4.99 per bushel on Friday, their highest since Aug. 29. Money managers maintain comfortably bearish CBOT corn views, though they trimmed their net short through Oct. 3 by about 9,200 to 159,433 futures and options contracts.

Persons: ’, Soymeal, Karen Braun Organizations: China, Futures, U.S . Department, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, U.S

Crop Watch producers reported quick harvest progress in the first week of October, and soybeans were the prime beneficiary as many areas are close to wrapping up those efforts. Five Crop Watch soybean fields were harvested between last Monday and Sunday, three with slightly better than expected results and two with notably worse ones. Just two Crop Watch soybean fields await harvest: Ohio and North Dakota. Average Crop Watch corn yield remains unchanged at 3.61, and there were no adjustments to any individual scores this week. Only four of the 11 Crop Watch corn fields have been harvested as of Monday morning, and the most recent one was completed on Sept. 29.

Persons: Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Crop Watch, Nebraska and, Crop, Crop Watch, Watch, South Dakota, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, Ohio, North Dakota, Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nebraska and South Dakota, South Dakota, South, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, The North Dakota, Griggs County, Stutsman County

Although China’s interest has declined, other U.S. corn export demand has been better than a year ago. USDA predicts 2023-24 U.S. corn exports to rise 23% on the year to 52.1 million tons (2.05 billion bushels). Total U.S. corn export sales for 2023-24 minus those to China are almost 40% higher than at the same point a year ago. Corn sales were closer to average over that same time frame, but both corn and soy are being limited by Brazil’s rising presence. Brazilian corn and soybean exportsIn the first eight months of 2023, some 18% of Brazil’s corn exports went to China compared with none in the previous years.

Persons: Rio, corn’s, Karen Braun, Rod Nickel Organizations: Lucas, U.S . Department of Agriculture, U.S, USDA, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Mato Grosso, Brazil, NAPERVILLE , Illinois, China, U.S, Mexico, United States

Large U.S. wheat purchases by China have been rare. The last daily U.S. wheat sale to China was in July 2021, also soft red winter wheat, and twin sales of hard red spring and hard red winter wheat were confirmed in July 2020. China’s recent U.S. wheat purchase was not a one-off, as it secured up to 600,000 tons of French wheat three weeks ago. China has been a top-three global wheat importer in the last few years, but those imports account for a very small fraction of annual Chinese wheat consumption. A decline in world wheat prices would amplify this effect.

Persons: Karen Braun, Rod Nickel Organizations: U.S . Department of Agriculture, USDA, Russia, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, China, U.S, States, Ukraine, Russia

Crop Watch farmers in western Iowa, Kansas and southeastern Illinois reported fast harvest efforts last week. The Minnesota and eastern Iowa soybeans are in progress as of Monday, and the South Dakota soybeans could also be started on Monday. So far, the Crop Watch harvest is faster than a year ago but slightly slower than two years ago. The producer cites the longer-season variety of beans planted in the Crop Watch field that were able to take in late-season moisture. Crop Watch 2023 ProducersPhotos of the Crop Watch fields can be tracked on my X feed using handle @kannbwx.

Persons: pinto, Karen Braun, Marguerita Choy, 「 Organizations: . Crop Watch, Nebraska, Crop, Crop Watch, Reuters, 「 Reuters Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Iowa , Kansas, Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska, North, South Dakota , Ohio, Minnesota, Iowa, Kansas, South Dakota, North Dakota, Ohio, The, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, The North Dakota, Griggs County, Stutsman County

This marks their biggest net short in corn since August 2020, and it nearly ties 2016 for the date's most bearish corn view. The move went against expectations for slight fund buying, as most-active CBOT corn futures had drifted fractionally higher for the week. Funds maintained their huge net short in CBOT wheat futures and options, which is the second largest for the time of year after 2016. CONTINUED SELLINGFriday marked several milestones for CBOT grain and oilseed futures, the most significant being a 6.4% dive in CBOT wheat futures, the biggest single-day decline since March 2022. Sept. 1 U.S. soybean stocks were above expectations but similar to the past two years, though soybean futures hit three-month lows on Friday.

Persons: Raquel Cunha, Friday’s, soyoil, Karen Braun, Sonali Paul Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Funds, U.S . Department of Agriculture, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Tepexpan, Mexico, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, Kansas City, Minneapolis, Kansas

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