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☆ The election is over, but bettors are still wagering on these 8 political predictions
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-16 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

AdvertisementPrediction markets made a splash during 2024 Presidential election. Billions of dollars were bet on the presidential election outcome via prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket this year. Here are some political bets to watch on Kalshi and Polymarket now that the presidential election is over. Johnnie Izquierdo/Getty ImagesCurrent odds: Yes (32¢), No (69¢)Betting volume: $285,843Trump ends Gaza war by first 100 days? Mostafa Bassim/Anadolu via Getty ImagesCurrent odds: Yes (47¢), No (54¢)Betting volume: $267,997

Persons: Kalshi, Mike Tyson, Jake Paul, Donald Trump's, Gavin Newsom, Josh Shapiro, Gretchen Whitmer, Pete Buttigieg, Andy Beshear, JD Vance, Anna Moneymaker, Vivek Ramaswamy, Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump Jr, Marco Rubio, Donald Trump, Robert F, Kennedy, Kevin Dietsch, Elon Musk, Steve Bannon, Jared Kushner, Ben Carson, Ken Paxton, Betsy DeVos, Ivanka Trump, Oleg Petrasiuk, Matt Gaetz, Trump, Tom Williams, DOUG MILLS, Karoline Leavitt, Scott Jennings, Tucker Carlson, Alina Habba, Kari Lake, Peter Doocy, Johnnie Izquierdo, Mostafa Bassim Organizations: Democratic, Republican, Libertarian National Convention, RFK Jr, Trump, 24th Mechanised Brigade, AP, United, Trump's, Getty, George Washington University in, George Washington University in Washington DC Locations: Trump's, Ukraine, Florida, Gaza, George Washington University in Washington, Anadolu

☆ Polymarket and Kalshi Predicted Trump's Win. Now Comes the Hard Part.
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-12 | by ( Amanda Hoover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Days before the election, Polymarket odds showed Trump had a 60% chance of winning. The electorate took notice: Kalshi and Polymarket soared to the top of Apple's App Store on Tuesday evening. Advertisement"Last night, Kalshi showed how prediction markets can decisively outperform polls and traditional media," Kalshi posted on X. And can the prediction markets ride their momentum now that the election's over? Prediction markets are "going to attract people who want to influence public perception," Broughel says.

Persons: Nate Silver, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Polymarket, Trump, Kalshi, Shayne Coplan, Coplan, Elon Musk, Taylor Swift, Travis Kelce, Robinhood, There's, Xavier Sottile, Bettors, Sottile, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, he'll, John F, Kennedy, Koleman Strumpf, Strumpf, Broughel, James Broughel, Israel —, — Polymarket, who've Organizations: Trump, CNBC, MIT, Victoria University, Wake Forest University, RFK Jr, Competitive Enterprise Institute, Wall Street Journal, Twitter, New York Times Locations: New Zealand, Kalshi, Ukraine, Iran

Bitcoin is trading near record levels, and Kalshi users are betting that the cryptocurrency could rise above $100,000 before the end of 2024. Kalshi data on Tuesday showed that 60% of users are betting that bitcoin could hit the $100,000 mark before January. The digital currency has rallied more than 28% since the U.S. presidential election last Tuesday. The prediction markets were volatile ahead of the election, but they were generally more bullish on Trump than traditional polling. However, odds and gambling platforms do not use methodologies used by traditional political polling, and therefore are not substitutes for political polls.

Persons: Donald Trump, Bitcoin Organizations: Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Trump, Metrics

☆ Billions were bet on election odds using online markets
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-09 | by ( Bruna Horvath | Bruna Horvath Is An Intern On Nbc News' Tech Team. | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +3 min

Election betting platforms brought in billions of dollars as users around the world wagered on who would win Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election, according to an NBC News analysis of betting platforms. Michigan and Georgia followed close behind, and the rest of the swing states were all in the top 15 states with the highest trading volume. On both Polymarket and Kalshi, bets on swing states alone made up around half of the total trading volume on state outcomes. One Polymarket bettor, who identified himself as “Théo” in an interview with The Washington Post, had bet over $28 million on Trump winning the presidential election using multiple betting accounts. “Théo” had put money down on all the swing states, according to Polymarket’s analytics.

Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Eric Zitzewitz, “ There’s, Will, ” Zitzewitz, bettor, “, Théo ”, Polymarket, Shayne Coplan, “ Théo, Zitzewitz Organizations: U.S, NBC, Dartmouth University, Republicans, Alabama, Democrats, California, Washington Post, Trump, Futures Trading Commission, Bloomberg Locations: Pennsylvania, Kalshi . Michigan, Georgia, U.S, America

☆ Betting markets nailed Trump's decisive win — and it's a good reminder they can be more accurate than polls
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-09 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Prediction markets swung in favor of Trump in the weeks before his victory, as polls showed a virtual tie. Proponents point to a number of factors that make betting markets more accurate. That was still hours before major news outlets called the electionPrediction site founders and researchers have long argued that betting markets are more accurate than traditional polling. I think this is the dawn of a new era for prediction markets, and prediction markets are here to stay," Mansour said. If they don't improve, the betting markets could replace them entirely, he predicted.

Persons: —, Donald Trump's, Kamala Harris, Trump, They've, Tarek Mansour, Mansour, Harry Crane, Northwestern University's Thomas Miller, Miller, Biden, Harris, Crane, Davide Accomazzo Organizations: Trump, Service, Rutgers University, BI, Northwestern, Pepperdine Graziadio Business

☆ How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn’t
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-08 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The basic theory behind prediction markets is that a lot of people with money on the line can better predict an outcome than any one expert. “Financial markets are generally pretty efficient, and the evidence suggests that the same is true of prediction markets,” Eric Zitzewitz, an economics professor at Dartmouth, tells me. The shares trade between $0 and $1, and once the event is resolved, shares tied to the correct outcome pay out a dollar. If you bought Trump shares on Monday, when they were 58 cents, you can expect to make 42 cents on the dollar. Later that fall, the popular betting market PredictIt gave Hillary Clinton an 82% chance of beating Donald Trump.

Persons: CNN Business ’, pollsters, Donald Trump’s, Trump, Kamala Harris, PredictIt, Eric Zitzewitz, “, aren’t, Taylor Swift, Travis Kelce, You’re, Shayne Coplan, Harris, Coplan, ” Zitzewitz, ”, “ Brexit, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Clinton, Nate Silvers, Ann Selzers, FiveThirtyEight Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Wednesday, “, Dartmouth, Chiefs, Lions, Ravens, Trump, Bloomberg, CNBC, European Union Locations: New York, America, United Kingdom

☆ Polymarket plans U.S. return after signaling Trump election win, founder says
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( Jacqueline Corba | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Online election betting platform Polymarket plans to bring its prediction markets back to customers in the United States, on the heels of accurately forecasting the electoral win of President-elect Donald Trump. "I want to give a lot of credit to the people who fought the battle to go and legalize political prediction markets in America," Polymarket founder and CEO Shayne Coplan told Andrew Ross Sorkin on "Squawk Box," in his first live TV interview Thursday. Polymarket's betting platforms are currently only available to customers outside of the United States. In 2022, it halted U.S. operations and paid a $1.4 million penalty to settle charges with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission that it had failed to register with the commission. In October, the U.S. Appeals Court for the District of Columbia Circuit lifted a freeze on competitor Kalshi's election contracts that was put on by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission.

Persons: Donald Trump, Shayne Coplan, Andrew Ross Sorkin, Patricia Millett, Kalshi, Robinhood, Thomas Peterffy Organizations: Futures Trading Commission, Appeals, District of Columbia Circuit, Commodities Futures Trading Commission, Interactive Locations: United States, America, U.S

☆ The surge in election betting has catapulted Kalshi and Polymarket to the top of Apple's App Store
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Kalshi and Polymarket catapulted to the most downloaded free apps on the Apple App Store on Tuesday. Kalshi and Polymarket show Trump favored to win the Electoral College, with Harris expected to win the popular vote. AdvertisementKalshi and Polymarket zoomed to the top of the Apple App Store on Tuesday amid a surge in election betting in the waning days of the 2024 US presidential campaign. Kalshi's ascent in the Apple App Store rankings represented a key goal being reached for the company's CEO, Tarek Mansour. 1 for the entire App Store by Election Day, so the demand curve truly is exponential," Mansour told CNBC last month.

Persons: Kalshi, Trump, Harris, —, Tarek Mansour, we're gunning, Mansour, Polymarket, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris Organizations: Apple, Electoral, Service, CNBC, Electoral College Locations: Polymarket

The social media ads have flooded platforms including Facebook, Instagram and X. One advertisement — viewed more than 900,000 times on Facebook and Instagram since Oct. 28 — depicts Trump winning in the Polymarket odds, according to the Meta Ad Library. A separate sponsored campaign from the right-wing social media personality Shaneyy Richh included nine advertisements promoting Polymarket forecasts. Based on user bets, Polymarket says Trump’s odds of winning are roughly 65.5% and Harris’s odds of winning are 34.5% as of Oct. 31. The company has also used social media to promote election betting, spending over $140,000 on Meta ads, according to the company's ad library.

Persons: Donald Trump’s, Kamala Harris, isn’t, Shayne Coplan, Trump, Harris, Shaneyy Richh, pollsters, ”, Elon, Polymarket, “ Trump, ” Claudio Vallejo, They’re, “, ” Polymarket, Coplan, we’ve, I’ve, ” Trump, “ Polymarket, that’s, Musk, ” John Fortier, “ It’s, you’re, Fortier, “ I’m Organizations: ”, Facebook, Trump, Meta Ad, “, Polymarket, United, Commodity, U.S, NBC, American Enterprise Institute Locations: California , New York, Texas, United States, U.S, Michigan

☆ Election betting odds tighten as polls show Harris has momentum
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-03 | by ( Mikhaila Friel | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

A new poll showed Kamala Harris had a surprise 3-point lead over Trump in Iowa. A Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll by Selzer & Co. published on Saturday showed Harris with a three-point lead in the state. On Kalshi, the popular US-based prediction platform, Harris' odds of winning the election have soared from 35% on October 29 to 51% at the time of writing. The Iowa poll surveyed 808 likely voters between October 28 and October 31, with a 3.4-point margin of error. The results marked a sharp swing from September when the same poll showed Trump ahead by four points.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Kalshi, —, Donald Trump, Harris, Trump, Polymarket Organizations: Trump, Iowa, Service, Des Moines Register, Selzer Locations: Iowa

Election bets were approved legally just weeks ago, as the 2024 race headed into its home sprint. The ongoing legal wrangling could still lead to a shutdown of U.S. election betting markets, but not until after the 2024 vote. The CFTC permits only U.S. residents to use the newly opened election betting markets, meaning many bettors on the platforms are also potential voters. Nonetheless, Adam Cochran, founder of venture capital fund Cinneamhain Ventures, says he worries about how voters perceive election betting odds. Mansour acknowledged it’s a “fair concern” that the general public might mistakenly see betting odds as the size of a candidate’s lead.

Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, ” Robinhood, Rostin Behnam, Kalshi, John Aristotle Phillips, Phillips, ”, multibillionaire Trump, Elon Musk, “, ” Harris, Polymarket, bettors, Trump, Harris, Musk, Tarek Mansour, ” Mansour, Adam Cochran, ” Cochran, Mansour, it’s, There’s Organizations: Interactive, Futures Trading Commission, Republican, Democratic, Overseas, Victoria University of Wellington, NBC, Trump, Street Journal, Cinneamhain Ventures Locations: U.S, New Zealand, America

☆ Betting on the election is the hottest new trend. But can prediction markets keep the momentum going?
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-30 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The big storyPresidential betsChris duMond; Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images; Jenny Chang-Rodriguez/BIWe're less than a week from election day, but one group can already claim victory: betting markets. Kalshi's legal victory in October over the CFTC to offer election betting paved the way for the trend. iStock; Rebecca Zisser/BIThe betting market's biggest tests might come after the election. Betting markets have Trump as a heavy favorite, whereas traditional polls indicate a tight race. AdvertisementShould Trump win in a landslide, it could strengthen the case for using betting markets as a key tool for election analysis.

Persons: —, Chris duMond, Chip Somodevilla, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Matthew Fox, Donald Trump, Polymarket, iStock, Rebecca Zisser, Nate Silver, Tesla, Zuckerberg, Citadel's, Justin Lubell, Lubell, Steve Schwarzman, Ken Griffin, Trump, Tyler Le, Harris, Sundar Pichai, Elon Musk, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Milan Sehmbi Organizations: Business, Service, Apple, CFTC, Trump, TikTok, Meta Connect, Meta, Bank of America, Blackstone, Republican, Amazon, AWS, Five Apple Intelligence, Google, The Washington Post, Street, Microsoft, Starbucks Locations: French, New York, London

☆ As voters cast ballots this election, some Americans are placing bets. Here’s what to know
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-30 | by ( Piper Hudspeth Blackburn | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

The election markets have not gone unnoticed by the Republican Party’s presidential nominee, Donald Trump, who has touted his odds on social media and at campaign events. With more than 50 million ballots already cast ahead of Tuesday’s election, here’s what you need to know about election betting in the US. Robinhood, a popular stock-trading app, launched presidential election betting on Monday. PredictIt, another prediction market embroiled in a legal fight with the CFTC, also offers election contracts while its case is ongoing. Researchers, however, have long studied political prediction markets.

Persons: Donald Trump, “, Trump, Kamala Harris, Kalshi, ”, PredictIt, David G, Schwartz, ” Schwartz, Paul Rhode, Koleman Strumpf, isn’t, Elon Musk, Cantrell Dumas, it’s, ” Dumas Organizations: CNN, White, Kalshi, Republican, Democratic, Futures Trading Commission, Senate, DC, Appeals, CFTC, University of Nevada, The University of Iowa, Iowa Electronic Markets, Victoria University of Wellington, Commission, Better Locations: United States, Washington ,, Michigan, Las Vegas, New York City, Rhode, Nevada , Texas , Michigan, Iowa, New Zealand, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania

☆ Trump Media shares halted repeatedly as DJT whipsaws in volatile trading
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-29 | by ( Kevin Breuninger | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +3 min

Trading of Trump Media shares was halted for volatility multiple times Tuesday morning as the company majority owned by Donald Trump ricocheted in early trading. Nearly 16 million Trump Media shares changed hands in the first 10 minutes of the trading day. Just more than a month later, Trump Media shares were trading at more than four times that price. That merger, which took Trump Media public, was completed in late March. Despite losing hundreds of millions of dollars on scant revenue in recent fiscal quarters, Trump Media boasts a market capitalization above $10 billion.

Persons: Donald Trump ricocheted, Trump’s, Kamala Harris, Harris, Critics Organizations: Trump Media, Nasdaq, DWAC, Republican, Trump, Forbes, Democratic, Madison Locations: New York City

☆ The election-betting market has exploded in popularity this presidential cycle
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-29 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Betting markets are booming ahead of the US Presidential election. Kalshi has attracted $100M in election bets this month and is the top free finance app in Apple's app store. Robinhood is getting in on the action, announcing its own election betting platform on Monday. Earlier this month, a US federal appeals court cleared Kalshi to open its election betting platform for US citizens. Interactive Brokers also launched a slew of election betting contracts earlier this month following the court decision to allow Kalshi to operate.

Persons: Kalshi, —, we're gunning, Tarek Mansour, it's, Donald Trump, Mansour, TikTok Organizations: Service, Apple, PayPal, CNBC, Interactive, Kalshi

☆ Trump Media shares halted for volatility as DJT rally accelerates
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-29 | by ( Kevin Breuninger | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Nearly 16 million DJT shares changed hands in the first 10 minutes of the trading day. Trading was halted a second time at 9:42 a.m., with shares up nearly 9%. The company, which trades as DJT on the Nasdaq, was halted for five minutes at 9:36 a.m. Trading of Trump Media shares was halted for volatility multiple times Tuesday morning as the company majority-owned by Donald Trump ricocheted in early trading. Just over a month later, Trump Media shares were trading at more than four times that price.

Persons: Donald Trump ricocheted, Kamala Harris, Harris, Critics Organizations: Nasdaq, Trump Media, Republican, Trump, Forbes, Democratic, Madison Locations: New York City

☆ Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour on the election betting market
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailKalshi CEO Tarek Mansour on the election betting marketKalshi CEO Tarek Mansour joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the betting market for the 2024 presidential election, election betting competition, and more.

Persons: Tarek Mansour

☆ Robinhood jumps into election trading, giving users chance to buy Harris or Trump contracts
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-28 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This combination of pictures created on October 25, 2024 shows US Vice-President and Democratic Presidential candidate Kamala Harris in Houston, Texas on October 25, 2024 and former US President Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump in East Del Valle, Austin, Texas on October 25, 2024. Upstart broker Robinhood is jumping into the prediction betting game, announcing Monday users can begin trading the 2024 presidential election that is eight days away. Shortly after, Interactive Brokers launched various political contracts, including on the election. The election markets have generated some controversary this year with some concerned about light volume allowing the markets to be skewed. For now, only the presidential election contracts will be available to trade on the system.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Robinhood, Kalshi, Polymarket Organizations: Democratic, Republican, Interactive Brokers, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, CFTC, Interactive, Trump Locations: Houston , Texas, East Del Valle, Austin , Texas, U.S

☆ It's getting easier for Americans to bet on the 2024 election
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-28 | by ( Brent D. Griffiths | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Robinhood is the latest platform to allow traders to wager on the 2024 election. A recent federal court ruling opened the door to wider betting on US elections. For now, only the 2024 election contracts will be available. Until a September federal court ruling, betting on US elections was largely limited to a narrow set of academics and students. Related storiesCFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam has strongly opposed election betting, previously testifying to Congress that allowing such wagers would turn his agency into "an election cop."

Persons: Robinhood, —, Donald Trump, Rostin Behnam, Sen, JD Vance, Trump's, Theo Von's, Vance, we've Organizations: Service, Court, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, GOP Locations: New York

☆ Trump Media shares surge up to 20% after Trump rally in New York City
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-28 | by ( Kevin Breuninger | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump holds a rally at Madison Square Garden in New York, NY on Sunday, October 27, 2024. Trump Media stock rose above $46.80 per share in the first hour of trading — eclipsing its recent peak in mid-July, when the company's market value soared after Trump was nearly assassinated at a rally in Pennsylvania. Shares of Donald Trump 's social media company rocketed up as much as 20% on Monday morning, on the heels of the Republican presidential nominee's Sunday campaign rally in New York City. During that time, Trump Media has rolled out a separate streaming app, Truth+, and announced the resignation of its chief operating officer. $DJT," one Truth Social user wrote Monday morning in a Trump Media shareholder group.

Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Kamala Harris, Critics, Polymarket Organizations: Madison, Trump Media, Republican, Sunday, Trump, Democratic, Rally Locations: New York, NY, Pennsylvania, New York City, Manhattan's Madison

☆ The 'whale' placing huge bets on a Trump win is a French national with extensive trading experience
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-24 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Polymarket "whale" placing massive bets on a Trump win next month is a French national. Polymarket confirmed the trader controls four accounts, betting more than $40 million on a Trump win. Polymarket found no evidence of market manipulation and said that betting odds on its website align with other sites. AdvertisementThe "whale" placing big bets on Polymarket in favor of Donald Trump winning the November election is a French national with extensive trading and financial services experience. Kalshi's betting odds favor Trump at 59% compared to 41% for Harris.

Persons: Polymarket, —, Donald Trump, Michie —, Trump, Harris, PredictIt Organizations: Trump, Service, Republican Locations: French

☆ Taylor Swift is flexing her economic muscles again with the return of her tour and a new book
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

In today's big story, Taylor Swift has a new book coming out, but how she's doing it might create some bad blood with publishers . On Tuesday, Swift announced plans to self-publish "The Eras Tour Book," a behind-the-scenes look at her record-breaking tour that'll be released exclusively at Target on Black Friday. News of a Taylor Swift book should have sent a publisher jumping for joy at the potential revenue. AdvertisementBig stars like Swift are exactly who book publishers are banking on these days. But even so, Miami, New Orleans, and Indianapolis — her remaining US tour dates — won't mind Swift coming to town.

Persons: —, Meta, Taylor Swift, Chelsea Jia Feng, Taylor, Swift, Samantha Grindell, Madeline Berg, George Walker IV, we're, Natalie Ammari, it's, Goldman Sachs, Kalshi, Donald Trump, Trump, Blackstone, Jon Gray, Walid Berrazeg, It's, Lebaredian, Uber, Dara Khosrowshahi's, Tyler Le, Matt Garman, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Milan Sehmbi, Amanda Yen Organizations: Business, Service, Target, AP, Indianapolis, Super Bowl, UBS, Getty, Financial, Wall, Blackstone, Trump, Investors, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, TSMC, Optimus, Financial Times, Netflix, American Express Locations: Miami, Miami , New Orleans, Glendale , Arizona, Hsinchu, ASML, Texas, California, New York, London

☆ 5 things to know about the mystery $30 million whale moving betting markets toward Trump
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Since the start of October, there's been a notable divergence between the betting markets and the polls. Where do election odds stand in betting markets now? What's going on with the 'Trump whale' in the betting markets? Is the $30 million 'Trump whale' an influence campaign? Because the betting markets are relatively illiquid, a $30 million bet can have a big influence on moving the odds in favor of Trump.

Persons: Harris, —, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, there's, Will Donald Trump, Polymarket, Peter Thiel, ethereum's, Vitalik Buterin, Joe Gebbia, Trump, Kalshi, What's, Michie, Arkham, Adam Cochran, Cochran, Elon Musk, Mitt Romney, Barack Obama Organizations: Trump, Service, Street, Arkham Intelligence, Republican Locations: Polymarket, Crunchbase, Wisconsin , Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada

☆ The Trump trade is back on as betting markets swing in favor of a win for the former president
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-16 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Betting odds favor Trump winning the November election, with Polymarket odds at 59.5%. The Trump trade is back on, with Trump Media stock, bitcoin, and bank stocks rising. AdvertisementThe Trump trade has been regaining momentum as betting odds rise in favor of the former President winning the election in November. The Trump trade in markets weakened after the mid-September debate between Kamala Harris and Trump, as Harris was largely viewed as the winner of their one-and-only meeting. Here's what's moving in markets that suggest the Trump trade is back on as investors bet on a victory for the former president.

Persons: Trump, —, Harris, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump's, Bernstein, Gautam Chhugani, Chhugani Organizations: Trump, Trump Media, Service, House, Bank, Washington DC, Biden White, P Bank ETF, Regional Banking Locations: Polymarket, Trump, United States

☆ Election prediction markets are in a sprint to prove themselves as forecasting and investing tools
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

"Things were going okay before the election contracts, but since we put them on the platform there's been a lot more interest," Sanders said. The election contracts on each site are binary, and they pay out $1 if the correct outcome is chosen and $0 for the incorrect outcome. A fifth arena, Polymarket, is a blockchain-based prediction platform that is not open to U.S. customers. If they prove to be accurate over time, the prediction markets may also serve non-traders such as consultants and fundraisers who want to glean more insight into the election. Concerns More ominously, critics of the election markets have raised alarm that they could be moved by one or two big traders for possibly nefarious purposes.

Persons: politicos, Kalshi, Steven Sanders, Sanders, John Phillips, Phillips, Tarek Mansour, Bob Elliott, Ray, Elliott, Polymarket, Nikki Haley, Michelle Obama, Matt Thompson, Thompson, Koleman Strumpf, Cantrell Dumas, Dumas, PredictIt's Phillips, Strumpf, Mansour, We've Organizations: Wall, Interactive, Futures Trading Commission, CFTC, Kalshi, Funds, Bridgewater Associates, South Carolina Gov, Republican, Little Harbor Advisors, Wake Forest University, Better, CNBC, Wake Locations: Iowa, Winston, Salem, N.C, Susquehanna

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