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Financial stocks are one corner of the market that's set to reap the benefits under a second Trump administration. The bank currently offers a 2.8% dividend yield, and has posted 10.2% dividend growth in the past year. Regions' dividend yield is at 3.8%, and the bank has grown its dividends by 18.9% in the past year. However, consensus price targets suggest a decline just shy of 1% could be in the cards for Regions Financial. Other financial stocks offering solid dividends include investment bank Goldman Sachs and credit card provider Discover Financial Services .
Persons: Trump, Donald Trump, Morgan Stanley, Wells, Mike Mayo, Mayo, Matt O'Connor, Bank of New York Mellon, Robin Vince, Brian Bedell, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Bank, P Bank ETF, Regional Banking, CNBC Pro, Financial, Deutsche Bank, Regions Financial, Bank of New York, Bank of New York Mellon, Discover Financial Services Locations:
Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller built a sizable position in regional banks and made one health-care name his biggest position last quarter — two bets that have been rallying since the election of President-elect Donald Trump two weeks ago. The regional banking exchange-traded fund has climbed 12% this month alone, while Natera has jumped nearly 26% in November. KRE YTD mountain SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF The widely followed investor was recently applauded for his big win on key artificial intelligence player Nvidia . During the third quarter, Duquesne added a small bet on Broadcom, worth $41 million, as another AI play. Druckenmiller shot to fame after helping make a $10 billion bet against the British pound in 1992.
Persons: Stanley Druckenmiller, Donald Trump, George Soros, Duquesne, Banks, Trump, Natera, Druckenmiller, bullish, Jensen Organizations: Quantum Fund, Duquesne Family Office, Regional Banking, Trump, Republican, GOP, Representatives, Regional Banking ETF, Nvidia, Duquesne, Broadcom, Duquesne Capital Management
Wall Street has been pumping money into the Trump trade, but investors should be wary before committing capital based on campaign promises, if history is any indication. From Election Day 2016 through year-end, the asset class outperformed the S & P 500 by 8% on a relative basis. In fact, from Election Day 2016 through Election Day 2020, smallcaps tumbled more than 22%. Expand the timeline to one year out from Election Day, and the ETF underperformed the broader index by 11%. Energy Energy stocks are expected to get a huge boost from Trump, who made energy a focus of his presidential campaign , and promised to "drill, baby, drill."
Persons: Trump, Donald Trump's, elect's, Russell, Biden, Wells, Austin Pickle, , smallcaps, that's, Fred Imbert Organizations: Bank, Regional Banking, Wells, Investment Institute, Trump, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Dow Jones, . Energy Energy, Energy Locations: Wells Fargo, that's year's
In addition, analysts had to predict further gains ahead — the stocks have at least 1% upside to the average price target, according to FactSet. Bank of America is among those on Wall Street that think the banks' move since Election Day has not been excessive. Citizens gained 30% from Election Day 2016 through the end of that year and jumped 14% on Wednesday. It added nearly 4% the day after the election and gained 18% from Election Day 2016 through the end of that year. Halliburton, which yields 2.3%, has the largest potential upside ahead — nearly 32% to the average price target.
Persons: Donald Trump, Jeremy Siegel, Ebrahim Poonawala, Trump, Piper Sandler, Mark Fitzgibbon, Keith Horowitz, Halliburton, Jeff Miller Organizations: Dow Jones, Wharton School, CNBC, Bank of America, UST, Trump, Regional Banking, Citizens Financial, Fifth Third Bancorp, Citizens, Fifth, Citigroup, Citi, Marathon Petroleum, Halliburton Locations: Gulf of Mexico
"For example, during Trump's previous administration, deregulation in the energy sector boosted oil and gas stocks, benefiting energy ETFs." Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) and Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF (BND), two of the world's largest bond ETFs, and longer-term funds like iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). Crypto ETFS having big year and getting bigger Since launching in January, crypto ETFs have attracted roughly $70 billion in assets, one of the most successful ETF launches ever. Bitcoin ETFs including the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the largest bitcoin ETF by assets under management, have seen significant inflows since October. Rosenberg at Texas Capital acknowledges that certain ETF sectors, like industrials ( Vanguard Industrials Index Fund ETF , or VIS; iShares U.S. Industrials ETF , or IYJ), "could be hurt by more tariffs."
Persons: Trump, Tom Lydon, John Davi, iShares Russell, ROE, Matt Bartolini, Bartolini, Gavi, Edward Rosenberg, Gary Gensler, Michael Novogratz, Cathie Wood, Todd Sohn, Wood, Davi, Rosenberg, industrials Organizations: Astoria, CNBC, Potential Trump, Bank ETF, Assets ETF, Trump, ETF Research, Street Global Advisors, Regional Bank ETF, Treasury, Aggregate Bond, Vanguard, Fund, Treasury Bond ETF, Texas, SEC, Commodity Futures, Galaxy Digital Holdings, ARK, Innovation, ARKK, Downside, China ETF, Texas Capital, Index, Industrials, U.S, Edge Locations: Astoria, Congress, rulemaking, Coinbase, China, Mexico
President-elect Donald Trump is returning to the White House , and shares of regional banks are surging on his Election Day victory. Western Alliance Bancorp turned up on the list, with a dividend yield of 1.8% as of Tuesday's close. BPOP YTD mountain Popular shares in 2024 Provident Financial Services turned up on CNBC Pro's screen. Provident posted a profit of 36 cents per share, versus analysts' call for 47 cents a share, per FactSet. Shares are up more than 21% in 2024, and as of Tuesday's close, it had a dividend yield of 5%.
Persons: Donald Trump, Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler, Davidson's Gary Tenner, Tenner, Frank Schiraldi, Piper Sandler's Mark Fitzgibbon, Fitzgibbon, , Fred Imbert Organizations: White, Republicans, Regional Banking, CNBC, Western Alliance Bancorp, Western Alliance, Financial Services, Provident
But the true implications for investors monitoring the election may lie in which party controls Congress, rather than who will sit in the White House. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 The importance of whichever party controls Congress was highlighted by Trump's recent trips outside battleground states such as New Mexico , a state that hasn't voted for a GOP presidential nominee in roughly 20 years. On the other hand, Evercore ISI's Emanuel expects a Harris victory, with a Democratic sweep of Congress, could result in the S & P 500 falling to roughly 5,700. The S & P 500 slid 1%, while the Nasdaq dipped 0.5%. Earnings season continues with about 100 S & P 500 companies confirmed to report.
Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Trump, Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson, I'm, Abuhoff Jacobson, hasn't, Brian Burrell, Jay Hatfield, Harris, Hatfield, Evercore ISI's Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI's Emanuel, Jerome Powell's, Ralph Lauren, Warner, Alex Harring Organizations: NBC, Congress, House, Democratic, Republican, Hartford Investments, GOP, Thornburg Investment Management, Infrastructure Capital Advisors, Senate, Wednesday, Regional Banking, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, National, Marriott International, Diamondback Energy, Wynn Resorts, Palantir Technologies, NXP Semiconductors, PMI, PMI Services, Services PMI, Petroleum, Brands, Technology, Computer, CVS, Howmet Aerospace, Gilead Sciences, Labor, Consumer, Moderna, Molson Coors Beverage, Halliburton, Hershey Co, Warner Bros, Expedia, Akamai Technologies, Paramount Locations: New Mexico, Albuquerque, Santa Fe , New Mexico, Hartford, Albemarle, Qualcomm, Michigan
Options traders are buckling down for outsized volatility around next week's election, according to Goldman Sachs. Two of the funds with the highest implied volatility are linked to China: the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) and the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) . Crypto is already a volatile area, but Trump's embrace of the industry during his campaign could spark a significant reaction. The options market implies a move of more than 7% for ProShares Bitcoin ETF (BITO) , according to Goldman. BITO, which holds bitcoin futures, did not exist in 2020, so there are no prior election comparisons for the fund.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, John Marshall, Donald Trump's, Crypto, Goldman, BITO Organizations: CSI China Internet, Regional Banking, Republicans, ProShares, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission Locations: China, U.S
The SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) has jumped nearly 5% since the fourth quarter began on Oct. 1, while the S & P 500 is ahead a little more than 1%. In the event of a Trump win but with a divided Congress, the S & P 500 is likely to remain flat in the days following the election, Emanuel wrote. Evercore ISI expects the S & P 500 falling in the 10 days after the election, to roughly 5,700, as markets re-price their expectations. 3Fourteen Research co-founder Pies expects a Harris win would translate into a drop in cyclical and small-cap stocks, and spur investors to turn to high-quality tech names. However, a Harris win, with a split Congress, is an outcome that could spur a drop in the S & P 500 immediately after the election, down to about 5,525, according to Evercore ISI.
Persons: Stocks, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Mike Mullaney, Trump, Harris, Julian Emanuel, Warren, CNBC's, Emanuel, Evercore, Jeff Schulze, Evercore ISI's Emanuel Organizations: U.S, Nasdaq, NBC, Boston Partners, Treasury, Trump, Republican, Regional Banking, Evercore ISI, 3Fourteen Research, Democratic, ClearBridge Investments, ISI
Stocks are starting to price in a Trump victory, possibly even a Republican sweep, according to JPMorgan. Take a look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average , which recently cleared the 43,000 milestone for the first time ever, or the S & P 500 , which surpassed 5,800. Meanwhile, U.S. banks, which are expected to face less regulatory scrutiny from Trump than under the Biden administration, have rallied. The SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF (KRE), has advanced 5.9% this month alone, and financials are the top-performing S & P 500 sector this month. KRE 1M mountain SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF over the past month.
Persons: Stocks, Donald Trump, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Biden, Trump, Panigirtzoglou, bitcoin Organizations: Republican, JPMorgan, Dow Jones, Trump, Regional Banking, U.S, Treasury, UST, flattish, White Locations: U.S, London, flattish U.S, DXY
Another pivotal U.S. jobs report this week will determine the market's direction, and Bank of America strategists think it is likely to push stocks to more record highs. The September jobs report is due Friday, with the economy expected to have added 144,000 jobs, up from 142,000 jobs in August, according to a Dow Jones estimate. It projects payrolls grew by 150,000 in September, with the unemployment rate at 4.2%. For options traders, Bank of America is recommending buying calls on cyclical equities, which currently offer the best value across asset classes. It said options on SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) are the most attractive right now to play the jobs data.
Persons: Dow Jones, payrolls Organizations: Bank of America, Federal Reserve, Regional Banking
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut will give a boost to these stocks, according to UBS. UBS strategist Patrick Palfrey identified stocks that have historically outperformed when the Fed lowers interest rates, a move that he expects will especially benefit smaller, more volatile and less-efficient companies. He expects this is true across the large-cap and small-cap universes represented by the S & P 500 and Russell 2000. Here are five S & P 500 stocks UBS expects can benefit most. By comparison, the SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) is up more than 8% year to date.
Persons: Patrick Palfrey, Russell, Palfrey Organizations: UBS, Regional Banking, CNBC, Moderna, Resources, National Bank Financial, Perpetua Resources Locations: ROE, Cleveland , Ohio, Idaho
Regional bank stocks are breaking out, and they may be able to continue to climb even if second-quarter earnings results are modest. The SPDR S & P Regional Bank ETF (KRE) has risen for six straight trading sessions, and on Monday it closed at its highest level since December. KRE 1Y mountain This regional bank ETF is at its highest level since December. The group still trades below historical valuations more than a year after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, Bank of America said. Notable regional bank earnings reports this week include Citizens Financial Group on Wednesday, M & T Bank on Thursday and Fifth Third Bancorp on Friday.
Persons: Ebrahim Poonawala, Banks, Poonawala, Goldman, Ryan Nash, Nash, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: P Regional Bank ETF, Federal Reserve, Fed, Bank of America, Silicon Valley Bank, Western Alliance, WAL, York, Citizens Financial Group, T Bank, Fifth Third Bancorp Locations: Silicon
Regional bank stocks are having an underwhelming year, but investors who are on the hunt for good dividend payers might find a few gems, according to Piper Sandler. "Given the recent pullback in bank stock prices, we are finding lots of regional and community bank stocks that have eye-catching dividend yields," wrote Mark Fitzgibbon, managing director at Piper Sandler, in a Thursday report. There is more to picking solid dividend stocks than just going by the yield. Piper Sandler further whittled down the list by eliminating companies that had cut their dividends over the past decade. Piper Sandler called out Heritage Commerce of San Jose, California, as a bank worth snapping up.
Persons: Piper Sandler, Mark Fitzgibbon, Fitzgibbon, Andrew Liesch, Matthew Clark, Clark Organizations: Regional Banking, Brookline Bancorp, Heritage Commerce, Pacific Premier Bancorp Locations: Boston, Brookline, San Jose , California, Irvine , California
These bank stocks are cheap and expected to rally
  + stars: | 2024-07-10 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
These bank stocks are cheap and expected to jump, according to CNBC Pro. The bank stock has underperformed this year, down more than 7%. But it's expected to surge 19% to its consensus price target, and has a forward P/E of 10.6. The stock is expected to gain 17% from here, and looks relatively cheap with its 10.1 forward P/E. It has a forward P/E of just 8.4.
Persons: Wells, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, It's, Stephens Organizations: CNBC Pro, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Silicon Valley Bank, Regional Banking, CNBC, KBW Nasdaq, U.S, Bancorp, U.S . Bancorp, Western Alliance, East West Bancorp Locations: Wells Fargo, Silicon
The threat from a looming wave of maturing commercial real estate loans has been well telegraphed to investors, but it's possible the metrics they are using to protect themselves from risk are flawed. Many investors have been avoiding bank stocks with high concentrations of commercial real estate (CRE) exposure. Investors have been punishing regional bank stocks, especially when the bank's commercial real estate exposure tops more than 300% of its total equity . While the latter two have some exposure to New York City real estate, both banks benefit from strong management teams, he said. (New York real estate markets are navigating both falling office values as well as the dynamics of rent-regulated multifamily properties.)
Persons: Erika Najarian, Stephens, Matt Breese, Breese, Webster, Najarian, Piper Sandler, Scott Siefers, Siefers, generalists Organizations: Owners, KBW, Regional Banking, UBS, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, Federal Reserve, Kansas City Fed, NBT Bancorp, Webster, National Bancorp, Micron Technology, Financial Group, Citizens Locations: New York City, York, . Connecticut, New, New York, Providence, R.I
East West Bancorp shares have eked out a small gain in 2024, up 2%. Despite the heightened scrutiny around regional banks, little-known East West Bancorp has been able to pull ahead thanks to a key customer base: Asian Americans. American dream = home ownershipPart of what's helping East West succeed with Asian Americans goes all the way back to its origins. East West Bancorp was founded in 1973 as a federal savings and loan in the Los Angeles area to service the Chinese American and immigrant community struggling to obtain mortgages and business loans. East West also drives cross-border activity between the U.S. and other Asian countries, such as Thailand and Vietnam.
Persons: Alexander Yokum, Wells, Timur Braziler, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, , Braziler, Christopher Del Moral, Niles, it's, Del, Steven Leung, Leung, CFRA's Yokum, Yokum, Dominic Ng, that's Organizations: East West Bancorp, Regional Banking, Bancorp, West Bancorp, CFRA, Federal Housing Finance Agency, East, East West, U.S, Bancorp's Locations: Southern California, U.S, United States, East, Los Angeles, Asia, FactSet, East West, New York, Beijing, China, Shanghai, Thailand, Vietnam, Washington
The rapid shift in expectations away from multiple rate cuts this year may have created a trading opportunity around Wednesday's inflation data, according to Bank of America. We believe squeeze risks for rate-sensitive laggards on a CPI miss outweigh downside risks on a CPI beat," Kwon wrote. Specifically, there could be an opportunity to bet on the squeeze risk through the SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) , Kwon said. KRE YTD mountain This regional bank ETF is underperforming the broader market year to date. Investors could position for this potential squeeze by just buying the ETF outright, though that does carry the risk of a hot inflation reading pushing regional bank stocks down.
Persons: Ohsung Kwon, Kwon, Russell, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America . Equity, Regional Banking, Federal Reserve, Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic, Bank of America Locations: IWM, Silicon
Bank stocks have been in comeback mode since making a key low post the regional bank crisis in 2023. A new breakout could be on the horizon, according to the charts. Two of the most popular bank ETFs are the SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) and the SPDR S & P Bank ETF (KBE) . Both are lagging the S & P 500 in 2024, which is +8.2% YTD. The bottom line is that both KRE and KBE have been forming bullish patterns, and we could see breakout attempts soon.
Persons: KRE, it's, Frank Cappelleri Organizations: JPMorgan, Regional Banking, P Bank ETF
Regional bank earnings may expose critical weaknesses, according to Sheila Bair, former chair of the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.Their quarterly numbers begin hitting Wall Street this week. Bair, who ran the FDIC during the 2008 financial crisis, is nervous that regional bank issues from 2023 aren't fully resolved. "This is still a problem for the regional banks, and fingers crossed that there's [not] another failure. The SPDR S&P Regional Bank ETF (KRE) is down almost 13%, and only four of its members are positive for 2024. Her latest regional bank warning comes as the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield topped 4.6% this week and hit its highest level since November 2023.
Persons: Sheila Bair, I'm, Bair, CNBC's, aren't, We're Organizations: U.S . Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, P Regional Bank ETF, New York Community Bancorp, Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp, Kearny Financial, Columbia Banking, National Bancorp Locations: New York
"What we've seen is deposit pressures escalate more than previously anticipated," said Alexander Yokum, analyst at CFRA Research, who has a neutral view on regional banks. "A lot of these regional banks, they have less deposits, so if they lose deposits, it can really impact their operating results," Yokum said. "So, higher for longer, I think for a lot of regional banks, would be negative." Here's what Wall Street analysts expect from regional banks this season. Other regional banks reporting this week include Fifth Third Bancorp .
Persons: Alexander Yokum, Yokum, Goldman Sachs, Ryan M, Nash, America's Ebrahim H, Poonawala, CFRA's Yokum, Citi's Keith Horowitz, " Horowitz, Huntington Bancshares Huntington Bancshares Organizations: Regional Banking, U.S . Bancorp, New York Community, CFRA Research, JPMorgan Chase, T Bank, PNC, " Bank, America's, U.S . Bancorp U.S . Bancorp, U.S . Bank, Bank of America, Huntington, Comerica KeyCorp, Comerica, Fifth Third Bancorp Locations: U.S, New, Ohio
For example, we now have a higher interest rate environment that will add more pressure on deposit costs. There is anticipation of more builds for reserves, particularly for commercial real estate, but also possibly for credit cards. The commercial real estate problem is the main issue. "Anything that's levered like commercial real estate, it's a different world," Tom Michaud, CEO of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, said in a recent interview on FactSet. "I expect more commercial real estate losses in every category, the question is whether it is going to be cataclysmic or is it going to be manageable."
Persons: Financials, Banks, Morgan Stanley, Wells, Wells Fargo, it's, Tom Michaud, Keefe, Woods Organizations: UBS, Credit Suisse, Bank of America, JPMorgan, Federal Reserve, First Republic, Regional Bank ETF, Bank, Allstate, Travelers Locations: Wells Fargo, Treasurys, Hartford
Regional banks are taking hits this week and investors are increasing their bearish bets on the sector. Higher rates impact Higher interest rates increase the cost of borrowing money. Higher interest rates can also reduce demand for loans, as borrowing becomes more expensive for consumers and businesses. This can deteriorate the asset quality of regional banks, increasing the need for loan loss provisions, which are expenses set aside to cover potential loan losses. Rising interest rates and inflation can pressure banks' capital adequacy ratios, a measure of a bank's capital relative to its risks.
Persons: Banks Organizations: Regional Banking, Banks
Despite broad concerns surrounding the health of regional banks, Ole Andreas Halvorsen's Viking Global bought into one key name in the sector in the fourth quarter. The move came near the end of a turbulent year for regional banks after the shuttering of Silicon Valley Bank , First Republic Bank and Signature Bank led investors to question the regionals' business model. Shares of U.S. Bancorp climbed more than 30% in the fourth quarter, but the stovck still ended the year down about 1%. The sector took a hit this year following New York Bancorp 's dismal fourth quarter earnings , which showed a loss, a large reserve against weaker future credits and slashed the dividend. Halvorsen went even further and zeroed out stakes in Microsoft and Arm Holdings , the British chip and software designer that went public last September.
Persons: Ole Andreas Halvorsen's, Halvorsen, Julian Robertson, InsiderScore, Lamb Weston Organizations: Ole Andreas Halvorsen's Viking Global, Viking Global, . Bancorp, Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic Bank, Signature Bank, U.S . Bancorp, Regional Banking, New York Bancorp, Viking, Tiger Management, Devices, Microsoft, Arm Holdings, Mastercard, Electric, Colgate, Palmolive Locations: Ole Andreas Halvorsen's Viking, Minneapolis, Silicon, U.S, Deere
The danger of higher rates for longer following the latest hot inflation reading raises the "downside risk" for regional banks, according to Bank of America. "Fewer and later Fed rate cuts pose downside risk to bank stocks," analyst Ebrahim Poonawala wrote in a Tuesday note. "We are especially concerned about the failure of the broader market to project the trajectory of interest rates – a consistent theme since the Fed began raising interest rates in March 2022." "We worry about the risk from no rate cuts in 2024 and a far more elevated level of interest rates across the UST yield curve," Poonawala added. Net interest margin is the difference between the interest banks earn on loans and pay on deposits.
Persons: Ebrahim Poonawala, Poonawala, Goldman Sachs, BNY Mellon, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America, Federal, Treasury, Silicon Valley Bank, Fed, UST, Regional Banking, Regional Banking ETF, JPMorgan, BNY, U.S . Bancorp, First Bancorp Locations: Silicon, U.S, Puerto Rico
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