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Dollar firm as inflation data douse bets for big Fed rate cut
  + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar traded near a four-week high versus the euro on Thursday after signs of some stickiness in U.S. inflation reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve would avoid a super-sized interest rate cut next week. The dollar traded near a four-week high versus the euro on Thursday after signs of some stickiness in U.S. inflation reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve would avoid a super-sized interest rate cut next week. Meanwhile, a quarter-point rate reduction from the European Central Bank is widely expected later on Thursday, with investors anxious for hints on how soon the monetary authority will cut again. Early on Wednesday, Bank of Japan board member Junko Nakagawa reinforced the central bank's tightening bias by saying low real rates leave room for further rate hikes. As a result, traders essentially priced out the chances of a 50-basis point rate cut on Sept. 18, paring the odds to 15% versus 85% probability for a 25-bp reduction.
Persons: Junko Nakagawa, Naoki Tamura, Tony Sycamore Organizations: Federal, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, IG, ECB, Sterling, Swiss Locations: U.S
Another board member, Junko Nakagawa, laid out the conditions for ending negative rates, notably a continued improvement in household confidence. "When we see many people share prospects that wages will keep rising, we may be able to exit (negative rates)." Less than half expect negative rates to end in 2024. There seems to be no consensus within the BOJ board, however, on when or how the bank would dismantle Kuroda's complex policy framework. Ueda said the BOJ could end negative rates if it believed that inflation would sustainably hold above the target.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Kim Kyung, Ueda, Tamura, Haruhiko Kuroda, Naoki Tamura, Kuroda, Mari Iwashita, Hajime Takata, Junko Nakagawa, Shinichi Uchida, Leika, Sam Holmes Organizations: Japan, REUTERS, Bank of Japan, Daiwa Securities, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO, U.S
As a result, it was hard to say when inflation could hit the bank's 2% inflation target in a sustainable manner, she said. "But we're not at a stage where we can judge that Japan has achieved our price target in a stable, sustainable fashion." The BOJ has defined sustainable inflation as price rises driven not by rising raw material costs, but strong domestic demand accompanied by continued wage increases. But she laid out in detail the conditions for ending negative rates. "When we see many people share prospects that wages will keep rising, we may be able to exit (negative rates)," she added.
Persons: Androniki, Nakagawa, Bank of Japan policymaker Junko Nakagawa, Haruhiko Kuroda, We're, Kazuo Ueda, Leika Kihara, Tom Hogue, Kim Coghill, Emelia Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Japan, Tokyo, KOCHI, Kochi
An office employee walks in front of the bank of Japan building in Tokyo, Japan, April 7, 2023. An increasing number of Japanese companies were raising prices and wages, Nakagawa said, adding that there was a chance inflation could accelerate more than initially expected. But there was also a risk inflation could slow once the pass-through of higher costs moderate, she said. "But we're not at a stage where we can judge that Japan has achieved our price target in a stable, sustainable fashion." Reporting by Leika Kihara; Editing by Tom Hogue and Kim CoghillOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Androniki, Bank of Japan policymaker Junko Nakagawa, Nakagawa, Kazuo Ueda, Leika Kihara, Tom Hogue, Kim Coghill Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Japan, Tokyo, Rights KOCHI, Kochi
Asia's factory activity stalls, but China a bright spot
  + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
China's manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in more than a decade in February, according to an official index, while a private sector survey also showed activity rising for the first time in seven months. India and Australia saw economic growth slow in the quarter to December, and South Korea's exports fell in February for a fifth straight month, highlighting the pain slowing global demand was inflicting on the region's manufacturers. The region's weaker data underscores the challenge Asian policymakers face in reining in inflation with higher interest rates, without choking off their economic recoveries already facing pressure from the global economic slowdown, analysts say. Factory activity continued to shrink in Taiwan and Malaysia in February, and expanded at a slower pace than in January in the Philippines, surveys showed. Policymakers hope China's re-opening from COVID-19 curbs, and resilience seen so far in U.S. and European economies, will underpin global growth this year.
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