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☆ Why rich Trump backers aren’t scared of his inflationary economic agenda
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-31 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —The last three years have upended everything about the way we expect the economy to work. But the pandemic-era inflationary period played out unlike any other in history, and wealthy people made out like bandits. And that may be because the only real inflation we’ve seen in decades was a multi-year profit bonanza for them. And that has provided a permission structure for some wealthy Trump supporters to shrug their shoulders at his inflationary economic agenda. But it won’t be the same flavor of profit-driven inflation we’ve seen over the past three years.

Persons: CNN Business ’, That’s, Donald Trump’s, “ It’s, ”, Kent Smetters, “, we’ve, ” It’s, He’s, Harris, Josh Bivens, Bivens, ” Bivens Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Wall, University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, Trump, Wall Street Journal Locations: New York, Ukraine

☆ Middle-class wages aren't keeping up. Some economists say policy is suppressing pay growth
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Juhohn Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Between 1979 and 2024, productivity in the U.S. soared by 80.9%, while hourly pay grew by just 29.4%, according to research by the Economic Policy Institute. But more recently, some economists have suggested that deliberate policy decisions have actively suppressed workers' wage growth. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, the natural rate of unemployment has hovered between 4.5% and 5.5% throughout history. But since 1979, the U.S. has spent far more time with actual unemployment well above that estimated natural rate. Watch the video above to find out how middle-class wages are being suppressed.

Persons: Josh Bivens Organizations: Economic, Institute, Federal Reserve Bank of San Locations: U.S, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

☆ Trump's mass deportation plans could wreak havoc on the fight against inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Alice Tecotzky | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

But think-tank economists warned Business Insider that former President Donald Trump's proposed mass deportation could open that door right back up. Beyond posing significant humanitarian concerns, economists worry Trump's proposed mass deportation would be hugely inflationary, partly due to the basic calculations of supply and demand. Both he and Edelberg said a sudden mass deportation would upend the labor supply and, in turn, the ability to make goods. McKibbin has researched the impact of mass deportation and said it would lead to a combination of lower production and higher costs, particularly in the agriculture and construction sectors. Add on the uncertainty that mass deportation would bring, and a chilling effect among investors seems plausible.

Persons: —, Donald Trump's, Kamala Harris, Trump, Harris, Trump's, Wendy Edelberg, Warwick McKibbin, Edelberg, Adam Posen, Posen, McKibbin, Josh Bivens Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Trump, Business, Brookings Institution, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Peterson Institute, Bloomberg TV, Economic Policy Institute, Democratic

☆ Nearly a million more children fell into poverty last year. Both presidential campaigns want to give parents money to fix that.
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( Juliana Kaplan | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Read previewMore children fell into poverty last year — and it could signal a major issue for both candidates as the presidential election heats up. But child poverty rose faster than that, from 12.4% to 13.7%. "The effectiveness of such a policy is evident when one considers the effects of the Child Tax Credit." And with child poverty only worsening, what candidates can deliver for parents might be particularly salient. Is the rise in child poverty and lack of assistance impacting your family?

Persons: —, Steven Durlauf, Joe Biden's, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump's, Joseph Costello, Harris, Walz, JD Vance, Anna Kelly, Kelly, Trump, Adam Ruben, Josh Bivens, they'd Organizations: Service, Business, The University of Chicago, Stone Center for Research, Harris School of Public, Child Tax, Pew Research Center, Economic Security, Census, Economic Policy Institute, jkaplan Locations: U.S

☆ Opinion: Our possibly short national nightmare
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-21 | by ( Richard Galant | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +19 min

“My fellow Americans, our long national nightmare is over,” President Gerald Ford said. “Our campaign is the last best hope of stopping the Trump-Biden nightmare,” the former UN ambassador said. If not, it won’t be as protracted a “national nightmare” as the two-year-long Watergate scandal that put Gerald Ford in the Oval Office. Though, depending on your point of view, the real nightmare could begin after the swearing-in. Yet, John Avlon wrote, Trump and some members of the House GOP, want to tank an emerging compromise in the Senate that would couple border security measures with aid to Ukraine.

Persons: CNN —, Richard Nixon, “, Gerald Ford, Ford, Gerald Ford’s, Nikki Haley, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Clay Jones, we’ll, Haley, MAGA, ”, Frida Ghitis, Trump, ” Haley, ” Trump, Patrick T, Brown, Daniel McCarthy isn’t, Donald Trump’s, Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, ” Nick Anderson, Biden isn’t, Dean Phillips, Cupp, Biden, ” Dana Summers, Karen Finney, Robert E, Lee, ” Finney, ’, Keith Magee, Julian Zelizer, Trump Samuel L, Adams, King David Border, Adolf Hitler, “ Mein, Paul Moses, Edward Alsworth Ross, Moses, Ross, … ”, — Hitler’s, It’s, who’ve, John Avlon, Scott Stantis, Mike Johnson, Alice Driver, Greg Abbott’s, Jean Carroll, Bill Bramhall, News Trump, Carroll, Danielle Campoamor, “ Carroll, —, she’s, Shawn Crowley, Robert C, Gottlieb, ” “, Jack Ohman, Gerald Auten, David Splinter, Jordan McGillis, Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez, Gabriel Zucman, McGillis, Melissa Kearney, ” Elise Gould, Josh Bivens, ” Elisabeth Kendall, Peter Bergen, ” Kendall, Sheena McKenzie, Izzeldin Abuelaish, Peter Rutland, Israel ’, Nafees Hamid, Walt Handelsman, Sara Stewart, Katherine Heigl, Jill Filipovic, Jeremy Allen White, J, Chen, Suzanne Nossel, Jade McGlynn, Holly Thomas, Estee Lauder, mascara, don’t, ” Thomas Organizations: CNN, Netflix, Trump, Biden, UN, New, Republican, Florida Gov, South Carolina Gov, GOP, Democratic, New Hampshire, Agency, Aggression, CNN Town Hall, American Sociological Association, ”, ified GOP, Texas Gov, News, Brookings, Social, Administration, US, Cambridge University’s Girton College, Wesleyan University, Palestine, Times Locations: Republic, Iowa, New Hampshire, Minnesota, New, Virginia, North Carolina, mealtimes, curriculums, America, Ukraine, New York, Manhattan, Yemeni, Red, Gaza, Israel, Americas

☆ Black UAW workers won progress in America's auto industry. They are on strike for its future
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-07 | by ( Nathaniel Meyersohn | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +12 min

The percentage of Black workers in the auto industry today is more than double their share of the workforce overall. But the decline in US auto jobs and the erosion of unions have hit Black workers hardest. Black workers are likelier to belong to unions, in any industry, compared to White and Hispanic workers. Black union workers earn on average 16.4% higher wages than non-union Black workers, and they are likelier to have health care and retirement benefits, studies show. Hard-won gains disappearSoon after Black auto workers broke into better paying jobs, the US auto industry began its long decline, decimating Black communities in particular.

Persons: Lynda Jackson’s, Jackson, ” Jackson, ” Lynda Jackson, Lynda S, Emily Elconin, ”, Tiffanie Simmons, Simmons, Steven Pitts, Luke Sharrett, Tesla, “, ” Pitts, Jim Crow, Henry Ford, Nelson Lichtenstein, “ Walter Reuther, Ford, Irving Haberman, Kevin Boyle, Boyle, Philip Randolph, Randolph, Franklin Roosevelt, Walter Reuther, —, James Meredith, Martin Luther King, Jr, Roy Wilkins, Phillip Randolph, Walther Reuther, Martin Luther King Jr, Reuther, ” Boyle, Spencer Platt, Josh Bivens, Biden, Erica Smiley, ” Smiley Organizations: New, New York CNN, Chrysler, Ford, General Motors, United Auto Workers, UAW, Detroit’s, Processing, Bloomberg, Getty, Ford Motor, Economic Policy Institute, UC Berkeley Labor Center ., Tesla, Ku Klux Klan, University of California, America, Northwestern University, Jobs, Walther Reuther . Express, Hulton, Southern Christian Leadership Conference, The League, Revolutionary Black Workers, Black, Economic, Institute, P Global Market Intelligence, Justice Locations: New York, Alabama, Detroit, America, Ypsilanti , Michigan, Wayne , Michigan, Detroit , Michigan, White, Fremont , California, . Mississippi, sharecropping, Chicago , New York, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, AFP, Santa Barbara, Ford's, Rouge, Dearborn , Michigan, Washington, Birmingham, Selma, Black, Flint, Midwest, autoworkers

☆ Striking auto workers want a 40% pay increase—the same rate their CEOs' pay grew in recent years
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( Jennifer Liu | In Jljenniferliu | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The union proposed 40% hourly pay increases over the next four years. Meanwhile, Ford CEO Jim Farley earned $21 million in total compensation last year, the Detroit News reported. Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares made $24.8 million, according to the Detroit Free Press. And GM CEO Mary Barra earned nearly $29 million in 2022 pay, Automotive News reported. CEO pay at the Big Three has grown 40% in the last decade, according to EPI — in line with the UAW's demands for 40% pay increases for autoworkers.

Persons: Autoworker, Jim Farley, Carlos Tavares, Mary Barra, Josh Bivens, EPI, Shawn Fain, Ford, Barra Organizations: United Auto Workers, Detroit, Ford, GM, CNBC, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CBS, Detroit News, Detroit Free Press, Automotive News, NPR, autoworkers, UAW

☆ Get ready to see millions of Americans lose their jobs if Congress doesn't raise the debt ceiling in the next few days
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Madison Hoff | Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The US could default on its debt as soon as June 5 if the debt ceiling isn't raised by then. That would translate to "7.8 million jobs lost from peak to trough," Yaros said. Other industries would see over half a million jobs lost in this scenario, including construction. "It's something closer to the 2001 recession that we had after the dot-com bubble, and you get about 1.5 million jobs lost from peak to trough," Yaros said. And 1.5 million jobs lost — that's still a huge human toll that was unnecessarily incurred."

☆ Why Prices, Inflation Are Still Soaring: Corporate Price Gouging
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Juliana Kaplan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +16 min

While many of the problems that helped trigger the upward spiral have abated, prices are still high and getting higher. The idea that companies are taking advantage of disruptions to push price increases on consumers has many names — greedflation, excuseflation, price gouging, corporate profiteering — but the gist is the same. Supply-chain issues and other disruptions made sense as drivers of higher prices, Chris Becker, a senior economist and the associate director of policy and research at the Groundwork Collaborative, told me. "Working people are suffering thanks to corporate greed, so we need to enact tougher rules to ensure corporations pay a price when they price gouge." Working people are suffering thanks to corporate greed, so we need to enact tougher rules to ensure corporations pay a price when they price gouge.

☆ The Fed could easily drive Black unemployment much higher than the overall jobless rate
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

However, the jobless rate isn’t expected to be that low for long. While that’s a small improvement from the central bank’s previous 4.6% jobless rate estimate, economists say it’s possible the unemployment rate could rise above the Fed’s expectations. It can be difficult to slow an unemployment spiralEconomists say it’s hard to guess the trajectory of the unemployment rate this year, noting it could very well exceed the Fed’s estimate. As such, the Fed’s tightening efforts could easily drive the Black unemployment rate much higher than the overall jobless rate, said William Spriggs, an economics professor at Howard University and chief economist to the AFL-CIO. The Black unemployment rate will easily get to 9% in that scenario.”One other likely consequence of growing unemployment is slowing wage growth, Bivens said.

Overall, the budget would increase federal spending in the twelve months starting in October to $6.8 trillion from the $6.2 trillion expected to be spent in the current fiscal year. Biden's budget proposal faces stiff opposition from Republican lawmakers emboldened by winning control of the House of Representatives in November's midterm elections. Biden, asked for areas of possible compromise with Republicans, told reporters at the White House: "We'll see what their budget is." Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget advocacy group, said the budget did not go nearly far enough to rein in dangerous debt levels. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a non-partisan Washington think tank, said Biden deserved credit for for putting forward $3 trillion in deficit reduction.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: The Fed wants inflation at 2%. But the economy might be fine with higher inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

But the economy may be fine with higher inflation. The 2% inflation target has been repeated so often by Fed officials and central bankers worldwide that it seems absolutely crucial to a healthy economy. But "the 2% inflation target, it's relatively arbitrary," said Josh Bivens, director of research at the Economic Policy Institute. In 1991, Canada announced its inflation target; the United Kingdom followed a year later. But if the 2% target is arbitrary, it implies that the economy could function normally at a higher level of inflation.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: The Fed wants inflation at 2%. But the economy may be fine with higher inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The 2% inflation target is key to the Federal Reserve's vision for stable prices in the U.S. economy, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. But, "the 2% inflation target, it's relatively arbitrary," Josh Bivens, director of research at the Economic Policy Institute, told CNBC. "We led the way in inflation targeting," Arthur Grimes, professor of wellbeing and public policy at Victoria University, told CNBC. Canada announced its inflation target in 1991, and the United Kingdom followed suit in 1992. Then, Sweden and Finland declared inflation targets in 1993, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

On paper, the average hourly wage Americans have earned has steadily climbed over the past year, from $30.76 to $32.36. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Americans have effectively experienced a 12-month pay cut of $0.31 per hour. Combined with a decrease in hours worked, Americans' inflation adjusted average weekly pay has decreased by only $13.20 from one year ago. The BLS released data Tuesday showing that monthly inflation had picked up 0.1%, while annualized inflation had climbed 8.3%. "Clearly the high inflation is undermining Americans’ purchasing power," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's, told NBC News.

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