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☆ JPMorgan drops its recession call for the first half and now sees a 55% chance of a soft landing for the global economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

JPMorgan scrapped its recession forecast for the first half of 2024 and now sees 55% odds of a soft landing. The bank sees a 30% chance that global expansion persists without major policy easing. AdvertisementJPMorgan has backed off from its recession forecast for the first half of 2024 and says it now sees a 55% chance of a "soft landing" for the global economy through late next year. Related storiesBut now, with upbeat data painting a rosier picture, the bank sees a 55% chance of a soft landing scenario extending through at least the end of next year. On the earnings side, corporates in developed markets surpassed expectations last year, with margins holding close to record highs, demonstrating surprisingly resilient profitability despite high policy rates.

Persons: —, Bruce Kasman, Joseph Lupton, Kasman, Lupton, Jamie Dimon, Dimon Organizations: JPMorgan, Service

Fed Chair Jerome Powell was almost brusque in his re-statement of the central bank's anti-inflation commitment at the annual Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. Tracking that rather than more-skittish policy rate futures would have proved a better guide to how subsequent months panned out and to the summer doldrums in bonds and stocks. And yet the September meeting could still be the 'big reveal' as it sees publication of the Fed's updated 'dot plot' that will likely show just where they then see the cycle crest. San Francisco Fed chart on dispersion of Fed rate projections by horizonSan Francisco Fed index of Fed uncertaintyACCIDENT OR DESIGN? As to whether the Fed is guiding everyone to safe and happy place, there continues to be sceptics about the 'soft landing'.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Jackson, that's, it's, Andrew Foerster, Zinnia Martinez, Bruce Kasman, Joseph Lupton Organizations: Federal, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Atlanta, San Francisco Fed, San, Fed, San Francisco, JPMorgan, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, synch, San Francisco Fed

LONDON, June 30 (Reuters) - The economic pain of higher interest rates seems duller than many had braced for only late last year - and subdued household debt burdens may be at least partly responsible. More interest rate sensitive countries with more flexible loan rates - such at Canada, Australia and Sweden - are already turning higher. What's more, the overall impact of higher borrowing rates is partly offset by rising interest rates on savings. And so net of interest income, JPMorgan points out, interest costs are up only 0.2 percentage point of disposable personal income since the start of the Fed hiking cycle early last year. Higher costs are still coming with a lag for many and will drag on the economies further from here.

Persons: Jerome Powell, JPMorgan's Joseph Lupton, Maia Crook, Lupton, Crook, it's, Mike Dolan, Alison Williams Organizations: Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: Canada, Australia, Sweden, Britain, Central

Based on traditional and long-abandoned fixed policy models, Cleveland Fed researchers reckon policy is already more aggressive than any of those rules suggest. The political and policy appetite for zero interest rates or quantitative easing - which seemed to chase estimates of R-star ever lower over the past decade - is gone. At the same time, real yields above 4% have proven unsustainable historically. Bhatia feels real yields somewhere in the middle is where markets will settle. Given the economy-wide accumulation of debt over recent years, real 10-year yields in a 1.5%-2.0% range probably works.

☆ Brace for a 'wrathful Old-Testament-style' central bank reaction to sticky inflation that could cause a deep US recession, says JPMorgan
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Prepare for a more forceful "Old-Testament style" central bank reaction to stubborn inflation, JPMorgan economists say. "The risk of triggering a more wrathful Old-Testament style central bank reaction is on the rise," they said in a note. Such aggressive policy reaction could lead the US economy into a deeper recession later this year, they added. "The risk of triggering a more wrathful Old-Testament style central bank reaction is on the rise. Possible scenarios projected by the analysts include the Fed ending rate hikes next quarter, with its cumulative rate hikes of about 500 basis points since early 2022 leading to a US-concentrated recession later this year.

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