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LONDON, June 28 (Reuters) - Western central banks have been warned this week not to quit in the final lap of their monetary tightening campaign - the hard yards households and financial markets may now find exhausting. And yet, desperate for their members not to declare premature victory in getting inflation back to 2% targets or sow an assumption above-target inflation will eventually be tolerated, central bank watchdogs are cheerleading a last push. But that's not in forecasts this time around - with U.S. and UK headline inflation rates not back to target by the end of next year and the euro zone not even by then. 'Last Mile' of disinflationBIS chart on speed of disinflation'UNCOMFORTABLE TRUTHS'And the BIS message was echoed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday. "Monetary policy should continue to tighten and then remain in restrictive territory until core inflation is on a clear downward path," she said.
Persons: that's, Gita Gopinath, Christine Lagarde, Lagarde, Jerome Powell's, John Williams, Williams, Joseph Little, Mike Dolan, Mark Potter Organizations: Bank for International Settlements, BIS, for Economic Cooperation, International Monetary Fund, Bank's, IMF, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, New York Fed, U.S, Bank of England, Global, HSBC Asset Management, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Portugal
Hong Kong observation wheel, and the Hong Kong and Shanghai Bank, HSBC building, Victoria harbor, Hong Kong, China. Ucg | Universal Images Group | Getty ImagesThe U.S. will enter a downturn in the fourth quarter, followed by a "year of contraction and a European recession in 2024," according to HSBC Asset Management. "The coming recession scenario will be more like the early 1990s recession, with our central scenario being a 1-2% drawdown in GDP," Little added. HSBC expects the recession in Western economies to result in a "difficult, choppy outlook for markets" for two reasons. HSBC remains overweight on Chinese stocks for this reason, and Little said the "diversification of Chinese equities shouldn't be underestimated."
Persons: Joseph Little, Little, HSBC's Little Organizations: Shanghai Bank, HSBC, Ucg, Getty, HSBC Asset Management, Global, CNBC, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Fed Locations: Hong, Hong Kong, Victoria, China, Europe, India
A passageway near the Bank of England (BOE) in the City of London, U.K., on Thursday, March 18, 2021. Hollie Adams | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesLONDON — The Bank of England on Thursday surprised markets with a 50 basis point hike to interest rates, its 13th consecutive increase as policymakers grapple with persistently high inflation. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 in favor of the half percentage point increase, which takes the bank's base rate to 5%. The move defied market expectations, which had priced in around a 60% chance of a 25 basis point hike. The MPC said that the high number of fixed-rate mortgages means that the full impact of the increase in the Bank Rate so far "will not be felt for some time."
Persons: BOE, Hollie Adams, Sterling, , we've, Andrew Bailey, Joseph Little, Little Organizations: Bank of England, City of, Bloomberg, Getty, Monetary, MPC, Bank, HSBC Asset Management Locations: City, City of London
The central bank lifted its main funds rate by 25 bps to its highest since 2007 as it continued its fight against inflation. Yet the S&P 500 (.SPX) hit a five-month high, as traders focused resolutely on the idea that the world's most influential central bank would change course soon. Government bond markets meanwhile continued to price in rate cuts by year-end as the economic cycle turns. Over in Europe, the European Central Bank delivered a hefty 50 bps hike on Thursday and promised more of the same for March and beyond. "In terms of the impact of (central bank) hawkishness on markets," he added, "this has significantly softened."
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEmerging market asset classes have performed 'pretty resiliently,' HSBC strategist saysJoseph Little of HSBC Asset Management says emerging market central banks, in responding to inflation early, have protected many of their currencies.
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