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Israel launched "precise strikes" on Iran on Saturday, killing four soldiers. The Israel Defense Forces said it carried out "targeted and precise strikes" on Iranian military sites on Saturday. Four soldiers were killed following the attack, Iran's military said, according to the IRNA state news agency. Voller said that should Iran choose to respond, it could turn to its proxies to defend its nuclear program. He added that Israel's targeting of Iran's military sites, including its air defense system, would allow it to launch further air attacks if Iran were to escalate the conflict.
Persons: Israel, , Joe Biden, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Jonathan Panikoff, Yoel, Voller, Panikoff, Ellie Geranmayeh, Israel shouldn't, Netanyahu, Geranmayeh, Benjamin Netanyahu Organizations: Service, Israel Defense Forces, University of Kent, Security Initiative, The New York Times, Institute for National Security Studies, Iranian, REUTERS, European Council, Foreign Relations, Times Locations: Iran, Iranian, Here's, Israel, East, Tehran, Tel Aviv, North Africa
How to strike a hostage and ceasefire deal, and with whom, is now a matter of uncertainty for American officials, who spent the hours after Sinwar’s death trying to determine if he had a successor. But US officials stopped short of saying Thursday that his death will result in a deal overnight. For long stretches, American officials couldn’t even say definitively whether he was alive or dead. “By all accounts, Sinwar has been the biggest obstacle within Hamas to a ceasefire-hostage release deal in Gaza. Depending on who would take his place, Sinwar’s death could revive hope for an agreement to end the war.
Persons: Yahya Sinwar, Antony Blinken, Hamas —, , Biden, Joe Biden’s, Kamala Harris ’, Harris, Netanyahu, Benjamin Netanyahu, Sinwar, , Jonathan Panikoff, ” Panikoff, Aaron David Miller, Miller, ’ ” Sinwar, couldn’t, Andrew Miller, ” Biden, Lloyd Austin Organizations: CNN, Hamas, US, Sinwar, State Department, , Michigan Locations: Gaza, Israel, Sinwar, fatalistic, Palestinian, Lebanon
It’s the second time Iran has launched an aerial attack on Israel this year, but Tuesday’s barrage was of a different magnitude. Israel's anti-missile system intercepts rockets after Iran fired a salvo of ballistic missiles, as seen from Ashkelon, Israel, on October 1, 2024. While the Israeli military said most of the missiles were intercepted, some landed on Israeli soil and appeared to cause damage. Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty ImagesIn Gaza, Israel’s war against Hamas grinds on almost a year after the Palestinian militant group’s attack on Israel. Since Israel’s war in Gaza began, US troops have also been the target of escalating attacks by Iran-backed proxy groups.
Persons: Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel, Hassan Nasrallah, Israel –, Amir Cohen, Pat Ryder, , Nasrallah, Jonathan Panikoff, Hezbollah's, Atta Kenare, Ismail Haniyeh, PMO, Netanyahu, Naftali Bennett, Masoud Pezeshkian, Alexi J . Rosenfeld, Matthew Miller, Lloyd Austin Organizations: CNN, Israel, Reuters, Air Base, Tel Nof Air Base, Pentagon, Hezbollah, Getty, Hamas grinds, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Israeli, New, State Department, US Navy, US Army, US, Israel . Defense Locations: Israel, Iran, Lebanon, Beirut, Here’s, Syria, Ashkelon, Reuters Iran, Tehran, Tel Aviv, Israel’s, Washington, Yemen, Tehran's Palestine, AFP, Gaza, Iranian, Iraq, East, New York City, Eshkol Region, Jordan
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah gives a televised address, Lebanon, September 19, 2024, in this screenshot taken from a video. “I don’t see how this doesn’t go much wider soon,” said one senior Western official. Hezbollah will almost certainly respond, according to Jonathan Panikoff, a former senior intelligence official specializing in the region, and Iran is likely to play a role. A senior US official said the US believes Iran will intervene in the conflict if they judge that they are about to “lose” Hezbollah. US officials have long assessed that senior Hezbollah leadership has wanted to avoid all-out war with Israel, even as fighting has intensified in recent months.
Persons: Hassan Nasrallah, Joe Biden’s, , , Jonathan Panikoff, ” Panikoff, Nasrallah, Mick Mulroy Organizations: Reuters, Western, US, Hezbollah, Israel, Middle, Defense Department Locations: Lebanon, Beirut, Iran, Tehran, Israel
Israel has warned that a “new era” of war was beginning with its “center of gravity” moving north, in a reference to the Lebanon border. Israel has raised the possibility of a ground incursion into Lebanon, which, if undertaken, would be the fourth Israeli invasion of the country in the past 50 years. Men rest on mattresses near the sea in Beirut, Lebanon, after being displaced by Israeli airstrikes on September 28, 2024. The US sees the possibility of a limited ground incursion into Lebanon as Israel moves forces to its northern border, CNN reported earlier, citing a senior administration official and a US official. But the officials stressed that Israel does not appear to have made a decision on whether to carry out a ground incursion.
Persons: Israel, Hassan Nasrallah, Nasrallah, Carl Court, Benjamin Netanyahu, Joe Biden, Peter Lerner, Hezbollah –, , , Hanin Ghaddar, , Baz Ratner, Jonathan Panikoff, Aaron David Miller, CNN’s Abbas Al Lawati, Mostafa Salem, Irene Nasser, Alex Stambaugh, Dana Karni Organizations: CNN, US, Israel Defense Forces, Hezbollah, Washington Institute, Israeli, United Nations, Saturday, Security Council, US State Department Middle Locations: Iran, Lebanon, Beirut, Israel, Gaza, , Beirut’s, United States, France, Safed
AdvertisementIsrael's assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the head of Hezbollah for over 30 years, is a major escalation in the Middle East conflict. A senior Iranian commander working with Nasrallah was also killed in the attack, Iranian state media confirmed on Saturday. AdvertisementIn the days after that attack, Iran telegraphed its response before launching hundreds of missiles and drones toward Israel in an unprecedented retaliation. AdvertisementIran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in a statement released on Saturday, said Iran stands with Hezbollah but did not threaten any military response. Still, Israel, anticipating a response from Hezbollah and other proxies in the region, and possibly Iran as well, ordered its citizens to avoid large gatherings.
Persons: Hassan Nasrallah, Nasrallah, , Israel, Mohammad Reza Zahedi, Slim, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Jonathan Panikoff Organizations: Service, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, Force, Middle East Institute, Saturday, Israel Defense Forces, Atlantic Council Locations: Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, United States, Iranian, Damascus, Syria, Brig, Lebanon, Hamas, Gaza, Washington ,, Islamic Republic, Yemen, Tehran
The senior Lebanese security source said the group had ordered 5,000 beepers made by Taiwan-based Gold Apollo, which several sources say were brought into the country earlier this year. Israel's Mossad spy agency planted a small amount of explosives inside 5,000 Taiwan-made pagers ordered by Lebanese group Hezbollah months before Tuesday's detonations, a senior Lebanese security source and another source told Reuters. But the senior Lebanese source said the devices had been modified by Israel's spy service "at the production level." Another security source told Reuters that up to three grams of explosives were hidden in the new pagers and had gone "undetected" by Hezbollah for months. "We really got hit hard," said the senior Lebanese security source, who has direct knowledge of the group's probe into the explosions.
Persons: Israel, Tuesday's detonations, Gold, pagers, Jonathan Panikoff, government's, General Hassan Nasrallah Organizations: Hezbollah, Reuters Locations: Beirut, Lebanon, Israel, Taiwan, Iran, Lebanese, Taipei, Gaza, U.S
One familiar name stood out to US officials: the new acting foreign minister, Ali Bagheri Kani. Just last week in Oman, Kani was part of a delegation of senior Iranian officials that met indirectly with US officials, current and former officials said. In the wake of the death of so many of his top officials, US officials believe that Khamenei will work to ensure that replacements adhere to his hardline worldview. “It’s difficult to see there will be any major changes in the way Iran behaves on the world stage,” a senior administration official said. In talks with Iranian officials in Oman last week, US officials once again laid out for their counterparts the consequences of Iran’s destabilizing actions, behavior and policies, according to the senior administration official and a US official.
Persons: Ali Bagheri Kani, Kani, Biden, Ebrahim Raisi, Ali Khamenei, Raisi, Jonathan Panikoff, ” Khamenei, Khamenei, , Panikoff, , Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Vahid, , Matt Miller Organizations: CNN, US, Supreme, Experts, Tehran ”, State Department Locations: Iran, United States, Oman, Gaza, Washington, Tehran, Israel, Kani
Throughout the week, US officials had urged Israel not to retaliate for Iran’s unprecedented attack five days prior, when hundreds of missiles and drones were fired from inside Iran at Israel. US intelligence has long assessed that neither Iran nor Israel has any appetite for an outright war. Iranian officials have stated publicly that Iran’s policy toward Israel has changed. Then, on April 1, an Israeli strike on what Iran claims was an embassy in Syria killed seven officials, including two senior Iranian commanders. “Israel and Iran are going to be starting higher on the escalatory ladder for every future moment of conflict and that is incredibly dangerous,” said Panikoff.
Persons: Biden, , Hossein, Israel’s, CNN’s Erin Burnett, Israel, Bill Burns, George W, , Frank McKenzie, ” McKenzie, Maher Al Mounes, Mohammed Reza Zahedi, Jonathan Panikoff, Seyyed Ali Khamenei, Khamenei, Karim Sadjadpour, Qassem Soleimani, Iran —, Iran messaged, Donald Trump, stridently, , McKenzie Organizations: CNN, Israel, Iran, US, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, CIA, Bush Presidential Center, Iranian, US Central Command, Getty, Lebanese Hezbollah, Iran’s, Carnegie Endowmernt Locations: Washington, Israel, Iran, Tehran, ” Iran, Islamic Republic of Iran, Dallas, Syria, Syria's, Damascus, AFP, Lebanese, Iran’s, Iraq
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said at the weekend that the PA in its current form should not take charge of Gaza. In the wake of Netanyahu's comments, Israeli officials have insisted that Israel does not intend to occupy the Gaza Strip. Dahlan has the backing of the influential United Arab Emirates to lead a post-war administration in Gaza, according to diplomats and Arab officials. So far, the U.S. and its allies have not seen any clear roadmap from Israel for its exit strategy from Gaza beyond the declared aim of eradicating Hamas, diplomats say. Not since the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 has there been such widespread concern about military action raging across the Middle East, according to Arab officials and diplomats.
Persons: Israel tightens, Gaza's, Mahmoud Abbas, Fatah, Benjamin Netanyahu, Mohammed Dahlan, Israel, Dahlan, Joe Biden, Netanyahu, Gaza –, , Abu Mohammad, We're, Biden, Jonathan Panikoff, government's, Biden's, Antony Blinken, Blinken, Abbas –, Abbas, Mohammad Shtayyeh, Abu Dhabi, Marwan Barghouti, Washington, Joost R, John Kirby, Nidal al, Humeyra Pamuk, Matt Spetalnick, Andrew Mills, James Mackenzie, Crispian Balmer, John Irish, Aidan Lewis, Alexander Cornwell, Samia Nakhoul, Daniel Flynn Organizations: Palestinian, Hamas, Israel Defense Forces, REUTERS, Authority, Palestinian Authority, West Bank, United, Israel, U.S, policymaking, Reuters, Atlantic Council, Gaza, Western, Israel ., UAE, North Africa, Crisis, House, Thomson Locations: Gaza, Israel, Gaza Israel, Iraq, Afghanistan, Palestinian, U.S, United States, Washington, Hamas, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, America, Egypt, Jordan, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Tokyo, Oslo, European, technocrats, United Nations, Middle East, Iran, GAZA, Doha, Jerusalem, Paris, Cairo, Dubai
The Israeli government declined to comment on the document, though sources in the government confirmed its authenticity on background. Israeli officials say this is the first known instance of Iran attempting to fund this kind of university-hosted training for Hamas operatives, a claim US officials said they could not confirm. Current and former US officials say the program is part of a well-known training program Iran provides to students from allied countries and groups to project soft-power influence across the region. As of now, Israeli intelligence has identified only a few Hamas military operatives who have already arrived in Iran. One candidate is marked to study “technologies,” one to study “physics,” one to study engineering,” one to study “programming,” one to study “law” and two to study “management.”
Persons: Jonathan Panikoff, , Panikoff, ” Panikoff Organizations: Washington CNN, CNN, Hamas, Lebanese, United Nations, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Locations: Gaza, Iran, Israel, East, Tehran,
In private discussions with their Israeli counterparts, Western defense officials have not tried to dissuade Israel from moving into Gaza with ground forces, the sources said. While he said that “taking out the extremists is a necessary requirement” for Israel, “Hamas and the extreme elements of Hamas don’t represent all the Palestinian people. At least publicly, Israeli officials have articulated their plans only in broad strokes, saying that the goal is to eliminate Hamas and its infrastructure. In one word – to win.”In 2014, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu set out to debilitate Hamas with the last ground invasion into Gaza. “I think the goal was to show clear support (and) to understand Israel’s strategy of what comes after an invasion if Israel is successful in decimating Hamas.
Persons: Israel, Joe Biden, , Biden, Gilad Erdan, Staff Herzi Halevi, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel hasn’t, , Jonathan Panikoff, didn’t Organizations: CNN, NATO, Israel, Hamas, Israel Defense Forces Chief, Staff, Haaretz, , US Locations: Israel, Gaza, Tel Aviv, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon –, Iran, Tehran
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIsrael-Hamas war: The question is whether a 'multi-front war' can be prevented, analyst saysJonathan Panikoff, director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council's Middle East Program, discusses the potential of a "regional spread" of the conflict to Lebanon, Syria and Iraq.
Persons: Jonathan Panikoff Organizations: Israel, Security Initiative Locations: Lebanon, Syria, Iraq
Mr. Biden has been planning to use the visit to show solidarity with America’s closest ally in the Middle East and to urge Israel to avoid civilian casualties. “The timing and optics of such a significant visit couldn’t be any worse,” said Charles Lister, the director of counterterrorism at the Middle East Institute. “Whatever the circumstances behind this strike at the hospital in Gaza, it doesn’t really matter at this point. They also said he believed an in-person visit could help him better understand Israel’s strategy as a ground invasion of Gaza loomed. “The failure to have an actual major strategy, I think, is the long-term biggest risk here,” Jonathan Panikoff, the director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Program, said in an interview.
Persons: Biden, , Charles Lister, we’ve, Mr, ” Jonathan Panikoff, ” John F, Kirby Organizations: Middle East Institute, Security Initiative, NBC’s Locations: Israel, Gaza, U.S
An Israeli army self-propelled howitzer fires rounds near the border with Gaza in southern Israel on Oct. 11, 2023. Israel's border communities have since been evacuated and the military said Tuesday it had regained control of the Gaza-Israel border, through which Hamas had launched its surprise offensive. Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak told CNBC's "Squawk Box" Wednesday that Israeli ground forces would take over the Gaza Strip in a matter of days. Israeli soldiers gather near Armoured Personnel Carriers (APCs) near Israel's border with Lebanon, northern Israel, October 9, 2023. For now, however, a cease-fire looks nigh-on impossible, with the conflict likely about to enter a "hot" phase of active operations on the ground.
Persons: Yahya Hassouna, it's, Yossi Mekelberg, Israel, Jack Guez, Benjamin Netanyahu, Yoav Gallant, Eden Guez, Violeta Santos Moura, William F, Wechsler, Al, Ehud Barak, CNBC's, Barak, Mekelberg, Ammar Awad, Israel —, Antony Blinken, Netanyahu, we're, Sean Gallup, Jonathan Panikoff Organizations: AFP, Getty, Hamas, North Africa, Chatham House, CNBC, Getty Images Hamas, Israeli, Israel Defense Forces, Reuters, Reuters Analysts, Rafik Hariri Center and Middle, Atlantic Council, Carriers, Tel Aviv Thursday, Security Initiative, State Locations: Gaza City, Israel, Palestinian, Gaza, East, Chatham, Lebanon, Israeli, Ashkelon, Rafik, Al Qaeda, Syria, Iran, Israel's, Iranian, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Riyadh, Western, U.S, Berlin, Jerusalem, China, State, Palestine
The surprise Hamas attack has dealt a blow to U.S. efforts to broker a landmark normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia and complicated Washington's approach toward Iran, Hamas' longtime benefactor. “Quite simply, all efforts at normalization are on hold for the foreseeable future,” said Jon Alterman, head of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, contradicting the official U.S. government line. Khaled Elgindy, a former Palestinian negotiations adviser, accused the Biden administration of leading an Israeli-Saudi normalization process that mostly bypassed the Palestinians and their hopes of ending Israeli occupation. “That sort of neglect is part of why we're seeing what we're seeing,” said Elgindy, now at the Middle East Institute. The immediate challenge is preventing the war from spiraling into a broader conflict, administration officials say, especially preventing the Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah from opening a second front on Israel's northern border.
Persons: Joe Biden, Elizabeth Frantz, Biden, Benjamin Netanyahu, Antony Blinken, Israel, , Jon Alterman, John Kirby, , ” Jonathan Panikoff, government’s, Khaled Elgindy, Elgindy, Panikoff, , Netanyahu, Jake Sullivan, Biden’s, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, Matt Spetalnick, Humeyra Pamuk, Simon Lewis, David Brunnstrom, Steve Holland, Alexander Cornwell, Parisa, Aziz El Yaakoubi, Heather Timmons, Howard Goller Organizations: Hamas, White, REUTERS, Rights, U.S, Center for Strategic, International, White House National Security Council, Middle East Institute, Saudi, The Atlantic, Hezbollah, West Bank, Reuters, Atlantic Council, Thomson Locations: Israel, Washington , U.S, Saudi, Gaza, Ukraine, U.S, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Hamas, Tehran, Israeli, Riyadh, Washington, Lebanese, IRAN, Dubai
U.S. President Joe Biden lholds a bilateral meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the sidelines of the 78th U.N. General Assembly in New York City, U.S., September 20, 2023. As president, Biden has frequently stressed support for independent Israeli and Palestinian states. Having returned to office in late December, Netanyahu opposes Palestinian statehood anytime soon and has approved thousands of new housing units for West Bank settlers. "If President Biden can stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes, I hope President Biden can stand with Israel for as long as it takes," said Republican Senator Tom Cotton, a foreign policy hawk, on Fox News' "Sunday Morning Futures." "Biden is not in love with Bibi Netanyahu," he said, using the prime minister's nickname.
Persons: Joe Biden lholds, Benjamin Netanyahu, Kevin Lamarque, Joe Biden, Netanyahu, Biden, Barack Obama’s, Donald Trump, Jonathan Panikoff, government’s, Tom Cotton, BIBI, Israel, Aaron David Miller, Bibi Netanyahu, Steve Holland, Matt Spetalnick, Heather Timmons, Howard Goller Organizations: Israeli, General Assembly, REUTERS, Rights, Israel, Administration, West Bank, Republican, U.S, White, Hezbollah, Hamas, Atlantic Council, Fox News, AIPAC, Biden, General, Carnegie Endowment, International, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Gaza, Israel, Iran, Egypt, Syria, Yom, Gulf, Lebanese, Jerusalem, Ukraine, New York, Saudi Arabia
"It looks quite similar to what happened at that time," said retired General Giora Eiland, a former head of Israel's National Security Council. "As we can see it, Israel was completely surprised, by a very well coordinated attack," he told a briefing with reporters. "It was a security failure, undermining what was thought to be an aggressive and successful layered approach toward Gaza by Israel," he said. "They've been planning this for a long time," said former Israeli National Security Advisor Eyal Hulata. "Obviously this is a very coordinated attack, and unfortunately they were able to surprise us tactically and cause devastating damage."
Persons: Israel, Giora Eiland, Gazans, Benjamin Netanyahu's, Ronen, Jonathan Panikoff, government's, They've, Eyal Hulata, Matt Spetalnick, James Mackenzie, Chris Reese Organizations: Israel's National Security Council, West Bank, West, Atlantic Council, National, Thomson Locations: Gaza, Israel, West Bank, Sderot, U.S, Washington
"It looks quite similar to what happened at that time," said retired General Giora Eiland, a former head of Israel's National Security Council. "As we can see it, Israel was completely surprised, by a very well coordinated attack," he told a briefing with reporters. "This was an intelligence failure; it could not be otherwise," said Jonathan Panikoff, the U.S. government's former deputy national intelligence officer on the Middle East, who is now at the Atlantic Council think tank. "They've been planning this for a long time," said former Israeli National Security Advisor Eyal Hulata. "Obviously this is a very coordinated attack, and unfortunately they were able to surprise us tactically and cause devastating damage."
Persons: Israel, Giora Eiland, Gazans, Benjamin Netanyahu's, Amir Cohen, Jonathan Panikoff, government's, They've, Eyal Hulata, Matt Spetalnick, James Mackenzie, Chris Reese Organizations: Israel's National Security Council, West Bank, West, REUTERS, Atlantic Council, National, Thomson Locations: Gaza, Israel, West Bank, Ashkelon, U.S, Sderot, Washington
[1/4] Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman receives U.S. President Joe Biden at Al Salman Palace upon his arrival in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, July 15, 2022. Biden would also score a foreign policy win as he seeks re-election in November 2024. The focus is on Biden’s fellow Democrats who have condemned Saudi Arabia over human rights but whose support would be needed if any agreement requires congressional approval. Though foreign policy rarely sways U.S. elections, Biden, facing a re-election fight against Republican former president Donald Trump, may be thinking of his legacy. Murphy, a Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said he favors Israeli-Saudi normalization and is open to reviewing any broader agreement but would not be easily convinced.
Persons: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Joe Biden, Biden, Joe Biden’s, Israel, , , Jonathan Panikoff, government’s, Biden’s, Washington, Benjamin Netanyahu, Donald Trump, Aaron David Miller, Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Jamal Khashoggi, Chris Murphy, Murphy, Jared Kushner, Trump, Abraham, Netanyahu, Matt Spetalnick, Steve Holland, Patricia Zengerle, Dan Williams, Nick Zieminski Organizations: Saudi Crown, Al, Saudi Royal Court, REUTERS, Rights, Atlantic Council, Saudi, Israel, Republicans, Israeli, Republican, Carnegie Endowment, International Peace, SAUDI, MbS, NATO, Reuters, Democrat, Senate Foreign Relations, Abraham Accords, Middle, General, Trump, Biden, Thomson Locations: Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, Bandar, Israel, U.S, Riyadh, Iran, Gulf, East, Russia, Ukraine, Saudi, Yemen, , United States, Washington, Jerusalem
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