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☆ A 32-year market vet shares 5 labor market indicators showing the US economy is barreling toward a recession — putting an overvalued stock market at risk for major declines
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-12 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

This is while S&P 500 valuations remain high, putting the market at risk for big declines. In a September note, Wolfenbarger shared the below chart from Bank of America showing 19 of 20 valuation measures they monitor as being overvalued. That means the S&P 500 would have to fall 60% just to return to the historical average. But it's still unclear how accurate the September jobs data is. Future revisions and further lackluster jobs data could resume investor fears that a downturn is a serious potential threat.

Persons: Jon Wolfenbarger, —, Merrill Lynch, St, Louis Fed, Wolfenbarger, September's, it's, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, JPMorgan, Conference Board, Global, Bank of America, Rosenberg Research, Nvidia Locations: St

☆ 5 warning signs the economy is spiraling toward recession — and why there's 'major disconnect' between stocks and the job market
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-14 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

And yet, the unemployment rate continues to inch up, job openings continue to fall, and payroll data continue to underwhelm. But how long that enthusiasm can continue to outweigh declining labor market indicators remains to be seen. AdvertisementThe first is declining job openings, which are down to 7.6 million from 2022 highs above 12 million. BullAndBearProfits.comAnother sign Wolfenbarger shared showing the labor market is turning sour is the Kansas City Fed's Labor Market Conditions Index, which is a composite of 24 job market indicators. BullAndBearProfits.comFinally, in a September 2 note, Wolfenbarger shared a chart from Bank of America showing the decline in private job growth as a share of all job growth.

Persons: —, Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, Wolfenbarger, there's, BullAndBearProfits.com, John, Hussman, Stocks Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Business, Kansas City Fed's Labor, BullAndBearProfits.com, Bank of America Locations: Kansas

☆ A 32-year market vet shares 2 charts showing stocks could be entering a major market peak — and warns a coming recession will send the S&P 500 plummeting more than 60%
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-01 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

It's been a near-frictionless seven months for the S&P 500, with the benchmark index up a cool 26% since late October. While earnings were just fine in the first quarter, if they start to decline alongside a slowing economy, stocks will go with them. He sees the S&P 500 declining by more than 50% when all is said and done. The current inversion of 580 days implies a drop of around 65% for the S&P 500. Those fears have since dissipated, and the S&P 500 has rallied 47% since October 2022.

Persons: It's, Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, BullAndBearProfits.com Wolfenbarger, Wolfenbarger, Bullandbearprofits.com Wolfenbarger, Jeremy Grantham, Marko Kolanovic, Albert Edwards Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Fed, OVOM

☆ A 32-year market vet warns underlying weakness in the labor market is on the verge of showing up in monthly jobs data — and shares an ominous chart showing why the S&P 500 could be set to fall more th
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-27 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Read previewLooking at the headline numbers, the US labor market is booming. OVOM Research/Bullandbearprofits.comWolfenbarger's views in contextOther market observers have started to warn of a weakening labor market in recent months. Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, shared several indicators in a client note earlier this month warning of a job market slowdown ahead. Pantheon MacroeconomicsBut whether the labor market actually weakens materially remains to be seen. AdvertisementIf Wolfenbarger is right and the labor market falls apart in short order, it could catch an exceptionally bullish market off guard.

Persons: —, Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, Wolfenbarger, Louis, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson, There's Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Business, Labor Statistics, Fed, Conference, Treasury, OVOM, Pantheon, National Federation of Independent

☆ 'We've never seen this many extremes': Strategists warn of dot-com bubble similarities as expensive US stocks struggle — but this 7-part strategy can still outperform
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-13 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

From late October through March, the S&P 500 enjoyed a virtually uninterrupted 27.6% rally based on better-than-expected earnings and economic data. And while it's still well below the dot-com bubble levels, it's still too close for comfort for many investors. Related story"Those higher rates are starting to push back on elevated valuations for stocks right now," Saglimbene said. "They're all much cheaper on an earnings basis than those Magnificent 7 companies," Saglimbene said. "So I think if we avoid a recession this year, the narrative will change to a broadening of companies and sectors that can participate in earnings growth this year."

Persons: aren't, Anthony Saglimbene, Rick Pitcairn, Pitcairn, it's, we've, Raheel Siddiqui, Neuberger Berman, Siddiqui, Jon Wolfenbarger, Albert Edwards, Bill Smead, James Ragan, DA Davidson, Ragan, Saglimbene, Indrani, she's, De, Davidson, Siddiqui's Organizations: Ameriprise, Business, DA, FTSE Russell, Investors Locations: Ameriprise

☆ 'Good times beget good times': JPMorgan Asset Management's global strategy chief explains why expensive US stocks can keep rising — and 4 top places to invest now
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-02 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Read previewHistory says US stocks' idyllic start to the year is sustainable, as does the chief global strategist at $2.9 trillion JPMorgan Asset Management. Advertisement"The market has momentum, and so good times beget good times," Kelly told Business Insider in a recent interview. JPMorgan Asset Management"There is a certain amount of fluff in those valuations, and I think that is somewhat dangerous," Kelly said. JPMorgan Asset ManagementOutside equities, Kelly said investors should consider adding exposure to alternative assets like real estate and transportation. "The overall buffet table of investment opportunities is being expanded, even for individual investors," Kelly said.

Persons: —, David Kelly, Kelly, David Rosenberg, Jon Wolfenbarger, Rosenberg, Kelly doesn't, it's, Kelly didn't Organizations: Service, Asset Management, Business, JPMorgan Asset Management, Bulls, Apple, JPMorgan, Management, Companies, Nikkei, P Transportation, Trust Nasdaq Transportation Locations: Truist, Europe, United Kingdom, Japan

☆ A 32-year market vet warns the S&P 500 is set to fall 50%-70% in the years ahead with valuations at historic highs — and says that an imminently weakening labor market will be the catalyst for the cra
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-30 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

According to Bank of America, valuation levels explain 80% of the market's return over a 10-year period. Bank of AmericaThere are many ways to measure valuation levels in the overall market. Hussman says it's the most accurate indicator of future market returns that he's found. AdvertisementThe Conference BoardThird, the number of US states with a rising unemployment rate is spiking, meaning that the overall unemployment rate should see further upside. BullAndBearProfits.comThe US unemployment rate is already on a slight uptrend, having climbed from 3.4% in April 2023 to 3.9% as of February.

Persons: —, Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, John Hussman's, he's, Warren Buffett, Wolfenbarger, Stocks, Woflenbarger, Cam Harvey, Claudia Sahm, Louis Fed, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, David Rosenberg, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, America's Savita Subramanian, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Business, JPMorgan, National Federation of Independent Business, Board, Treasury, Bank, America's

☆ 'You are now living through Tech Bubble 2.0': A 32-year market vet warns stocks are doomed to suffer substantial losses with valuations at historic highs and the economy on the verge of recession
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-27 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

"For those of you younger than us who did not live through the Tech Bubble of the late 1990s, you are now living through Tech Bubble 2.0. As a reminder, the NASDAQ fell about 80% when that bubble burst in the mild recession of the early 2000s," Wolfenbarger said. AdvertisementThere is evidence that backs up Wolfenbarger's bubble claims, starting with fairly standard valuation measures like the Shiller cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio. While it's not as high as it was during the dot-com bubble, it's higher than it was in 1929 — and is at one of its most elevated levels in history. Bank of AmericaAs for what will finally deflate the bubble, Wolfenbarger is expecting a recession to hit the US economy.

Persons: —, Microsoft —, Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, Wolfenbarger, it's, America's Michael Hartnett, Louis Fed Wolfenbarger, Jeremy Grantham, Adam Karr, Orbis Investment Management Karr, It's Organizations: Service, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Business, JPMorgan, ClearBridge, Tech, NASDAQ, ClearBridge Investments Bank, America's, Bank of America, Bank of America's Global, Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing, Orbis Investment Management, Global Fund, Federal Reserve Locations: Japan

☆ 'We are at the very onset of a recession right now': A top Wall Street strategist shares a 'huge red flag' signaling the economy is heading into a downturn — sending stocks tumbling as much as 20%
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-18 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Right now, it's up 7.7% year-over-year and continues to rise, prompting Kantrowitz to say it's a "huge red flag for me." Still, while the unemployment rate is up to 3.9% from its 3.4% low earlier this year, unemployment claims have not spiked meaningfully. Piper Sandler"Regarding employment – I see enough data that has me convinced that we are at the very onset of a recession right now," Kantrowitz said. If the unemployment rate continues to tick upward, even slightly, it will likely trigger the Sahm rule mentioned above. Plenty of market onlookers see a recession in 2024, including DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffery Gundlach and Citadel founder Ken Griffin.

Persons: Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Sahm's, It's, Claudia Sahm, Jon Wolfenbarger, Wolfenbarger, Jeffery Gundlach, Ken Griffin, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Brian Moynihan Organizations: Federal, Business, Institute for Supply Management's, Investor, Federal Reserve, National Federal, Independent, Treasury, Conference, DoubleLine Capital, Citadel, Bank of America

☆ 'The damage has already been done': A 31-year market vet shares 3 pieces of evidence that the labor market is about to collapse, sending the economy into recession and the stock market spiraling
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-11 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The US economy added just 150,000 jobs, under the expected 180,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, now 0.5% higher than its low earlier this year. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis/Bullandbearprofits.comSecond, the inverted yield curve is starting to steepen. An inverted yield curve has been an extremely reliable recession indicator over the last several decades. Bullandbearprofits.com"Proven leading indicators show that the unemployment rate is likely to start rising materially soon. Piper SandlerIn addition to the yield curve and employment indicators above, other recession indicators continue to point to a downturn ahead.

Persons: Jon Wolfenbarger, Merril Lynch, Wolfenbarger, Louis, bode, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Societe Generale's Albert Edwards, Edwards Organizations: JPMorgan, Federal Reserve Bank of St, National Federation of Independent, Fed, Bank of America, Societe Generale's, Generale, Edwards . Societe Generale Locations: lockstep, Edwards .

☆ A 31-year market vet shares 2 signals that show a recession is still on the way — and warns the S&P 500 still has 48% downside as valuations remain near the richest levels in history
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-23 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

One is that the Institute for Supply Management's Purchasing Managers' Index continues to show signs of slowing economic growth. "Real GDI has never fallen three quarters in a row without the economy being in a recession," Wolfenbarger said. This partially informs his call for the S&P 500 to fall to around 2,250, which would represent 48% downside from current levels. When it comes to Wolfenbarger's 48% sell-off call, it's well outside the mainstream of where strategists see stocks going. With valuations high, a meaningful recession could make that three times, as Wolfenbarger is warning.

Persons: Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, Wolfenbarger, Costa, Louis, Warren Buffett Organizations: JPMorgan, Bull, Institute for Supply Management's, Crescat, Federal Reserve Bank of St, downturns . Federal Reserve Bank of St Locations: downturns .

☆ A 31-year market vet warns stocks face at least 23% downside with inflation still too high, a recession looming, and a narrow group of companies driving the current rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-22 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Manufacturing data, inflation data, market breadth, and high rates are warning signals, he says. Bullandbearprofits.comShort-term Treasury rates remaining elevated prove the Fed is going to continue raising rates, Wolfenbarger said. The ISM PMI Manufacturing Index is currently at 46, and readings below 50 mean the economy is contracting. Bullandbearprofits.comAll of this amounts to a bearish outlook for stocks, Wolfenbarger believes. Some in the market are growing fatigued of the recession forecasts as the market surges back toward all-time-highs.

Persons: Jon Wolfenbarger, Wolfenbarger, Wolfenbarger —, Merril Lynch, Piper, Michael Kantrowitz, Kantrowitz, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Wilson, Morgan Stanley Wilson, there's Organizations: Federal, JPMorgan, Bull, CPI, Cleveland Fed, University of Michigan, PMI

☆ A 31-year market vet who called the current bear market warns an impending credit crunch and recession will sink stocks by 45% as valuations remain higher than dot-com bubble levels
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-13 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Indicators like initial and continuing unemployment claims and loan demand show weakness. A recession paired with high valuations spells trouble for stocks, he said. For example, the number of initial unemployment claims is starting to jump at a recessionary pace, Wolfenbarger said. The four-week moving average of initial unemployment claims has risen 29% over the last eight months. Hussman FundsWhat others are sayingMany market onlookers have highlighted high stock market valuations in recent weeks.

☆ A 31-year market vet who called the current bear market says the S&P 500 has another 45% downside as investors remain blind to signs that a recession is hurtling toward the US economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-08 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Yet, stock market investors remain bullish, he said. He's been warning of a significant stock market decline since late 2021,"People are ignoring all the lessons of history," Wolfenbarger told Insider on Friday. His bearish outlook stems from how high stock valuations are relative to 10-year Treasury yields. Wolfenbarger also has company in thinking that stock market investors aren't heeding the warnings of a coming downturn. Yet, the stock market doesn't seem to reflect this uncertainty, he said.

☆ A 30-year investing vet who called the latest bear market warns that stocks have another 41% downside with US economy already in recession and the Fed continuing to ratchet up rates
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-31 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Jon Wolfenbarger thinks the US economy is already in recession. With growth slowing and the Fed still tightening, Wolfenbarger thinks stocks are due for big losses. The S&P 500 is already down around 20% year-to-date. All of that spells further trouble ahead for stocks, Wolfenbarger said, despite the fact that the S&P 500 has already fallen about 20% in 2022. In a recessionary scenario, Goldman Sachs' David Kostin said the S&P 500 could fall to 3,150, though that is not his base case.

☆ 100 years of stock-market history show the sell-off is likely only half done, says a 30-year market vet who called the downturn. Here are 3 criteria to watch to know when the worst is over.
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-19 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Jon Wolfenbarger thinks stock-market investors are still too optimistic that a bear market bottom is coming sometime in the immediate-to-near future. When bear markets occur when valuations are relatively high, the bear markets tend to drag on longer. The median bear market length during periods of high valuation among those listed above is 17 months, Wolfenbarger said, compared to 13 months when valuations are attractive. Given that the current market sell-off began amid some of the highest valuations in history, Wolfenbarger said he expects the bear market to last 17 months or longer. Wolfenbarger's views in contextIn June, Societe Generale conducted a similar analysis to Wolfenbarger's and looked at bear markets over the last 150 years.

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