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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'Goldilocks' September jobs report will need to see U.S. unemployment hold, economist saysJohn Silvia, CEO and founder at Dynamic Economic Strategy and former chief economist at Wells Fargo, discusses the September U.S. jobs report and what a "Goldilocks" or soft landing scenario looks like.
Persons: John Silvia Locations: Wells
The Reserve Bank of Australia seems to have executed a one-meeting 'skip', but perhaps more by accident than design. Leaving open the possibility in July of another 25-basis-point hike two months later could prevent financial conditions from loosening too much. The Fed wants policy to be restrictive, and financial markets to move accordingly. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Philip Jefferson in recent weeks have introduced 'skip' and 'skipping' into Fed-watchers' lexicons. Until then, a pause was generally assumed to lay the ground for rate cuts, not a resumption of rate hikes.
Persons: Alan Greenspan, John Silvia, Silvia, Jerome Powell, Lorie Logan, Powell, Patrick Harker, Christopher Waller, Philip Jefferson, Price, Lou Crandall, Wrightson ICAP, Jamie McGeever, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Reserve Bank of Australia, Dynamic, Fed, Dallas, Philadelphia Fed, Consumer, Index, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida
Investors know the event risk so they tighten controls, and are generally more cautious. Calendar event risk, or 'known unknowns,' may unleash market volatility, but investors can hedge or sit on the sidelines. chartNominal trading volumes in these contracts often spikes up on 'event days' like U.S. jobs and inflation data days. However, as a share of overall options turnover - which Cheng says is a better indication of potential market risk - many of the recent peaks have been on random 'non-event' days. chartHe and his colleagues estimate that the daily notional value of trading in '0DTE' options has grown to about $1 trillion.
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