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Nvidia is set to report fiscal third-quarter results after the stock market closes Wednesday. If the options market is any guide, the results could spark a big move higher, according to Goldman Sachs. Analyst John Marshall said options are implying an 8.3% move in either direction for Nvidia. Marshall said the Wall Street bank expects Nvidia to beat third-quarter expectations driven by strong double-digit data center revenue growth. Elsewhere this morning on Wall Street , Pivotal Research hiked its price target on Netflix to $1,100 — the highest on Wall Street.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, John Marshall, Goldman, Marshall, Tyson, Paul, Jeffrey Wlodarczak Organizations: Nvidia, LSEG, Blackwell, Netflix
Options traders are buckling down for outsized volatility around next week's election, according to Goldman Sachs. Two of the funds with the highest implied volatility are linked to China: the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) and the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) . Crypto is already a volatile area, but Trump's embrace of the industry during his campaign could spark a significant reaction. The options market implies a move of more than 7% for ProShares Bitcoin ETF (BITO) , according to Goldman. BITO, which holds bitcoin futures, did not exist in 2020, so there are no prior election comparisons for the fund.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, John Marshall, Donald Trump's, Crypto, Goldman, BITO Organizations: CSI China Internet, Regional Banking, Republicans, ProShares, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission Locations: China, U.S
Buyers purchase call options when they expect a stock's price to move higher. He set a Wall Street-high price target at $38, which implies 31.7% upside over Tuesday's close. Further down the list, Royal Caribbean carried a 4.9% short interest share compared with the float. RCL NCLH,CCL YTD mountain Royal Caribbean vs. Norwegian and Carnival, year to date CrowdStrike also made the cut with a 4.4% short-interest-to-float rate. The average price target reflects the potential for shares to add more than 7% in the year ahead.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, John Marshall, Goldman, Marshall, TD Cowen, William Kerr, LSEG, Morgan Stanley, Jamie Rollo, NCLH, CrowdStrike Organizations: Goldman, Industry, Royal Locations: Royal Caribbean, Miami
Market sentiment can be gauged by following options traders' actions and fair-value gaps. Goldman Sachs predicts a relief rally for 18 stocks with positive options market sentiment. But if you get it right, you're rewarded with outsize returns. Not only that, but analysts at Goldman Sachs have found that the options market implies average earnings-day moves of 6% in either direction for S&P 500 stocks. Below is the list of 18 stocks which includes their options-implied stock move and the strike price for each contract.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , outsize, Goldman, John Marshall Organizations: Service, Federal
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNvidia is our most controversial and biggest opportunity, says Goldman's John MarshallJohn Marshall, Goldman Sachs head of derivatives research, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss the performance of the company's top earnings trades, the general parameters for the stocks they screen, and much more.
Persons: Goldman's John Marshall John Marshall, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Nvidia
Goldman's favorite trades for the upcoming earnings season
  + stars: | 2024-10-11 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
"This rise in nervousness has increased the potential for relief rallies for stocks on their respective earnings events." Analysts expect an earnings growth rate for the S & P 500 of 4.2% in the third quarter, per FactSet data, which would represent a fifth-straight period of year-over-year growth. Here's a look at some of Goldman's top trade ideas heading into earnings season. GAP YTD mountain Gap stock. NVDA YTD mountain Nvidia stock.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, John Marshall, Goldman, Wells Fargo, Brooke Roach, Toshiya Hari, Hari Organizations: JPMorgan Chase, Old Navy, GAP, Nvidia, Broadcom, Boston Scientific
The former star appellate lawyer who allies once cast as the smartest person in the room remains confounded by the realities of Donald Trump. Roberts was shaken by the adverse public reaction to his decision affording Trump substantial immunity from criminal prosecution. The Roberts Court has been in sync with the GOP political agenda largely because of decisions the chief justice has authored: For Trump and other Republicans. But the politically charged valence deepened in the justices’ resolution of the case against former President Trump on election-interference charges from 2020. Harvard Law School professor Richard Lazarus, a longtime friend of Roberts, spent time with him in July immediately after the Trump decision was issued.
Persons: John Roberts, Donald Trump, Roberts, Trump, Roberts hewed, Roberts ’, Holder, Kamala Harris, Pew, Obama, John Marshall, Roger Taney, ” Roberts, Scott, Gore, Joe Biden, Harris, George W, Bush, Al Gore, Reagan, George H.W, William Rehnquist, , ” “, ” Trump, , Jack Smith, Sonia Sotomayor, excoriated, Sean Wilentz, Dred Scott, Erin Murphy, , ” Roman Martinez, Pence, ” Smith, Tanya Chutkan, Chutkan, Smith, Richard Lazarus, Lazarus, ” Lazarus Organizations: CNN, Trump, White House, Democratic, Pew Research Center, Republicans, Texas Gov, Capitol, Princeton, New York, . United, Georgetown University Law Center, House . Harvard Law, New, New England Law Boston, The Washington Locations: County, . United States, Galway, Ireland, New England
Tesla is slated to report its third-quarter delivery numbers next week, followed by a long-awaited robotaxi event on Oct. 10. To take advantage of the robotaxi event and the deliveries update, Marshall highlighted the Oct. 24 expiry call options on Tesla at a $255 strike price. TSLA 5D mountain Shares of Tesla closed less than $1 below Goldman's suggest strike price on Tuesday. Currently, Tesla options seem cheap relative to their history, according to Goldman. Options traders risk losing the premium paid for the contract if the stock fails to rise above the strike price.
Persons: Tesla, Goldman Sachs, John Marshall, Mark Delaney, Goldman, Marshall Organizations: Goldman Sachs Automobiles, Bloomberg News, Tesla
An earthquake with a magnitude of 4.4 struck the Los Angeles area shortly after noon on Monday, the U.S. Geological Survey said. People reported feeling it strongly across the Los Angeles area. The Los Angeles Fire Department said it received no initial reports of damage or injuries as it checks infrastructure citywide. "Having lived through the Northridge earthquake (magnitude 6.7 in 1994), today's tremor made me flash back to what we know are lifesaving rules during an earthquake: drop, cover, and hold on. It struck on the first school day for the Los Angeles Unified School District.
Persons: Kathryn Barger, John Marshall Organizations: U.S . Geological Survey, Los Angeles Fire Department, National Weather Service, Los Angeles Unified School District Locations: Los Angeles, U.S, San Diego, San Joaquin Valley, LA, California, Highland, Los Feliz
The upcoming earnings report for Apple could create a big market move that options traders can take advantage of, according to Goldman Sachs. John Marshall, head of derivatives research at Goldman, said in a note to clients that the tech giant's earnings report after the bell on Aug. 1 could deliver a positive surprise. "[Goldman] Hardware analyst Michael Ng expects Apple (AAPL) to deliver an EPS beat at upcoming quarterly earnings driven by solid growth expectations for iPad/Mac and Services. A straddle is a type of options strategy involving a call and put option on a stock with the same expiration date and strike price. The Goldman note was written before Wednesday's tech sell-off, in which Apple fell 2.9%, so investors may want to consider other strike prices as well.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, John Marshall, Goldman, Michael Ng, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Apple, Goldman, Services
Investors should take a look at the options market to bet on the long-awaited rebound of Wells Fargo , according to the derivatives research team at Goldman Sachs. John Marshall, the firm's head of derivatives research, said in a note to clients that Wells Fargo looks like an options trade candidate ahead of its earnings report. Wells Fargo is set to release its latest earnings before the bell on Friday. WFC 5Y mountain Wells Fargo is off to a strong start in 2024 after a long period of underperformance. Wells Fargo has been a long-term underperformer among bank stocks, and it is still under regulatory restrictions related to a fake accounts scandal under a previous CEO.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, John Marshall, Wells, Goldman, Richard Ramsden, Richard, Wells Fargo, Marshall, NII, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Locations: Wells Fargo, Wells, underperformance, 2H24
Investors looking to bet on another rally for major tech stocks should take a look at some options trades that are curiously cheap, according to Goldman Sachs. The "Magnificent Seven" was the key to the stock market rally last year, but the group has splintered a bit in recent months. For example, investors have had a hard time betting on Tesla , which is down nearly 30% in 2024. "We see the potential for more volatility over the next two months than is priced into TSLA options. The strategy works by picking a strike price, typically above the current stock price, and expiration date.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, John Marshall, Elon Musk's, Goldman, Michael Ng Organizations: Tesla, Apple, Worldwide
Nvidia has been the biggest story of Wall Street's rally to record highs, but the options market appears to be underestimating the impact of its earnings report Wednesday, according to Goldman Sachs. "NVDA options suggest investors expect this earnings report to be unusually important; NVDA options imply a +/-11.9% earnings-day move vs. its 4-quarter historical earnings-day move of +/-10.8%. The importance of this earnings report is easy to see given NVDA options volume has been 36% of all single stock options volumes over the past three months," the note said. The S & P 500 is a market cap-weighted index, meaning that Nvidia has taken on extra importance over the past two years. The options market has underpriced S & P 500 moves following the previous four Nvidia reports as well, according to Goldman.
Persons: Wall, Goldman Sachs, John Marshall, Marshall, Goldman, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Nvidia, Traders
As first quarter earnings season rolls on, analysts are upping their forecasts on a collection of names set to report next week. According to FactSet data, analysts have upwardly revised their earnings estimates by more than 18% over the past three months. Analysts polled by FactSet have increased their earnings forecasts by nearly 18% over the past three months, and now expect earnings of 66 cents per share. GE YTD mountain GE Aerospace stock. GE Aerospace started trading on Wall Street earlier in April, after General Electric completed a split into three components compromised of GE Vernova, GE Healthcare and GE Aerospace.
Persons: Meta, Justin Post, Goldman Sachs, John Marshall lauding, Noah Poponak, Rowe Price Organizations: Netflix, Express, CNBC, Meta, Facebook, Messenger, Bank of America, GE Aerospace, FactSet, GE, Wall, General Electric, GE Vernova, GE Healthcare, Seagate Technology
Goldman's top trades for earnings
  + stars: | 2024-04-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGoldman's top trades for earningsJohn Marshall, Goldman Sachs head of derivatives research, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss the top idea from Goldman's list of top tactical trades, the cruise lines Goldman favors, and much more.
Persons: John Marshall, Goldman Sachs, Goldman
Analysts expect the S & P 500 to have a year-over-year earnings growth rate of 3.2%, FactSet data shows. If that's the case, it would mark the third consecutive quarter of earnings growth. The reporting period could also be a good time for tactical opportunities in the stock market. The bank also expects these names to see sharp moves after posting earnings, based on what the options market shows. The options market implies a 4.1% move for Nasdaq on after the April 25 report is released.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, John Marshall, Goldman, Lizzie Dove, Per Goldman, Toshiya Hari Organizations: JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Nasdaq, Semiconductor, Broadcom Locations: Wells, China, Asia
Read previewGoldman Sachs analysts kicked off the new month and quarter by revealing their favorite investing ideas. AdvertisementHow to successfully select stocksThe directors' cut list consists of 20 to 25 stocks beloved by Goldman's research analysts. But a promising outlook alone isn't enough to make the directors' cut list. Kron and company also look for stocks that Goldman Sachs analysts are more bullish about than their peers are. AdvertisementBelow are the 22 companies on the "directors' cut" version of Goldman Sachs' US conviction stock list.
Persons: , Goldman Sachs, Steven Kron, Kron, Chris Hussey, John Marshall, Stocks Organizations: Service, Business, Goldman, Citigroup, Royal Caribbean Cruises, TPG, Blue Owl, TE, Chevron
April sees about 10% of all preannouncements for a given year on average, according to Goldman Sachs. Given that earnings announcements can cause stock volatility, whether they are scheduled or not, this could create an opportunity for options traders to capitalize. CNX, a natural gas company, has announced preliminary results in April four times since 2011, according to Goldman, while Delta has done so three times. The stock has since erased that drop, but the sharp one-day move likely created some winners among options traders. Health care is a sector that sees a higher-than-average number of preannouncements, according to Goldman, which could bode well for traders interested in HCA.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, John Marshall, Goldman, bode Organizations: Delta Air Lines, HCA Holdings, Fidelity National Information Services Locations: Delta, DAL
John Marshall of Goldman's derivatives research team said in a Feb. 22 note that investors can use options to position for a reversal in the momentum trade. Goldman's approach to hedging momentum is two-pronged: buying put options on high momentum stocks, and buying call options on "anti-momentum" stocks. "If a true momentum reversal were to occur, we see the potential to profit on both sides of the trade," Marshall wrote. Goldman has a sell rating on SkyWest and a neutral rating on Palantir. On the other leg of the trade, Goldman identified stocks with buy ratings from its analysts that have fallen over the past 12 months.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, John Marshall, Marshall, Goldman Organizations: Nvidia, Goldman, SkyWest, Pfizer
Those options could be relatively cheap right now for some of the more vulnerable stocks, according to Goldman. "During normal market environments, the options market prices options efficiently based on trailing realized volatility. Our long-term studies have shown that Free Cash Flow is the most important fundamental metric to watch when estimating downside asymmetry," Marshall said in the note. To identify put option candidates, Goldman found stocks trading above the firm's price targets and low or negative free cash flow. That company reported a net loss of $116.6 million in 2023 , with free cash flow of just $7.9 million.
Persons: John Marshall, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Marshall, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Southwest Airlines, LUV, Tech, Intel, Southwest
Stephen I. Vladeck Courtesy of University of Texas School of LawThat mantra was ringing in my head as I reviewed the code of conduct voluntarily adopted by the Supreme Court on Monday, the first such formal code to govern the justices. In adopting these rules, the Supreme Court didn’t address that issue at all. Congress controls when and where the court sits; until 1935, the court sat in the Capitol — a powerful reminder of which branch was beholden to which. But it’s the least-worst alternative to a problem that the Constitution necessarily creates: how to have an independent Supreme Court that is nevertheless at least loosely accountable to the political branches. Accountability and independence aren’t mutually exclusive — something the justices are tacitly conceding by agreeing for the first time to formally adopt a code of conduct.
Persons: Stephen I, Charles Alan Wright, Robert Jackson, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, they’ll, , , John Marshall, it’s, I’ve, couldn’t, aren’t, ” isn’t, shouldn’t, Ronald Reagan Organizations: University of Texas School of Law, CNN, Supreme, Soviet, University of Texas School of, Judicial Conference, United, Congress, Capitol, Democratic, Republicans Locations: United States
12 Arizona at its famously hostile arena on Friday night — the kind of marquee matchup that's getting trickier for coaches to schedule with lengthy conference slates, NCAA Tournament bids and even coaches' job security on the line. “I know you always hear people, fans of college basketball saying, ‘We need this.’ It's hard, it's really hard. It's become big business.”The game at Cameron Indoor Stadium opens a home-and-home series, with the Blue Devils visiting Tucson in 2024. By the time Duke returns the trip next year, Arizona will have left the Pac-12 for the Big 12. He won an NCAA title as a Duke player in 2010 and an assistant in 2015 and worked under Coach K for nine seasons.
Persons: — Jon Scheyer, Tommy Lloyd, Lloyd, ” Lloyd, , Duke, there's, Scheyer, “ Tommy, It'll, it'll, , , ” Scheyer, of Famer Mike Krzyzewski, Mark Few’s, John Marshall, ___ Organizations: Duke, Cameron, Blue Devils, CBS, North, UCLA, Ohio State, Atlantic Coast Conference, Michigan State, ACC, SEC, of Famer, Arizona, NCAA Locations: DURHAM, N.C, Arizona, Tucson, North Carolina, Kansas, Kentucky, Hill, Lexington, that's, Arkansas
The firm recommends buying call options into the individual companies' reports in what it calls its top "tactical" trades for earnings. "Option implied earnings day moves are elevated suggesting investors are nervous regarding upcoming earnings reports," Goldman analyst John Marshall wrote Thursday. Investors are contending with several headwinds that are making them uneasy into earnings results. Cenovus stock has ticked up more than 6% from the start of the year. The firm says call options for the December term with a $470 strike are the play ahead of Nvidia's results.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, John Marshall Organizations: Goldman, Cenovus Energy, Energy, FedEx, Nvidia Locations: Israel, Cenovus
Goldman Sachs expects the stock market is about to get even bumpier from here — and recommends ways for investors to capitalize on the turbulence. "We expect volatility to increase over next few weeks," John Marshall, head of derivatives research at the firm, wrote Monday. While the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, a popular measure of volatility, is down about 35% in 2023, the Wall Street firm expects that a deteriorating macroeconomic backdrop and seasonal volatility will drive it up. The CBOE Volatility Index was last hovering around 14. "Buy CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) Oct monthly expiry $15 calls to hedge potential rise in volatility," the firm's Arun Prakash wrote in a Thursday note.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, John Marshall, Marshall, Arun Prakash, Prakash, CNBC's Michael Bloom
Some mosquitoes are actually helpfulThe first problem to tackle here is the word “all.” There are more than 3,000 recognized mosquito species worldwide. Healy, who is also president of the American Mosquito Control Association, offered Louisiana, which is home to many swamps where mosquitoes thrive, as an example. “Disease-transmitting mosquito species, such as Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, are invasive species in many parts of the world. As for the Anopheles mosquitoes, which transmit malaria, things are a little different. … We are constantly educating mosquito control workers to follow these practices.
Persons: birdsong, We’ve, , Kristen Healy, Healy, we’d, Laura Harrington, Culex, Aedes, ” John Marshall, ” Marshall, ” Healy, Soumyabrata Roy, NurPhoto, it’s, Harrington, Wolbachia, ” Harrington, Stefan Sauer, “ We’ve Organizations: CNN, US Centers for Disease Control, Entomology, Louisiana State University, American Mosquito Control Association, Cornell University, University of California, Getty Locations: , West Nile, Louisiana, West, Berkeley
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