DIRS.INFO The most relevant business & tech news

That’s when Election Day turns into election night, and each state starts reporting its vote totals. Virginia is an example of a state that usually has a geography-driven red mirage early on election night. Another factor that can cause vote mirages is partisan differences by vote mode — mail ballots, early in-person votes, Election Day in-person votes, and so on. This will produce a vote mirage if there are partisan differences between the earliest-returned mail ballots and the later-returned ones. As Election Day votes were reported in the next few hours of election night, the size of the blue mirage shrunk to about 3.5 points.

Persons: That’s, ”, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Biden, Donald Trump’s, Kyrsten Sinema, Trump, Ann Arbor, Clark, Clark’s Organizations: North Carolina —, Republican, Washington , D.C, Democratic, Democrat, NBC, Trump, Biden, Senate Locations: Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona , Nevada, California, Virginia, Fairfax, Washington ,, Fairfax County, Arizona, Maricopa County, Atlanta, Pennsylvania, Democratic Philadelphia, Allegheny, Philadelphia, Michigan, Detroit, Grand Rapids, Ann, Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Nevada, Las Vegas

The early votes of new voters — voters who did not show up in 2020 — are of particular interest because they are votes that could change what happens in 2024 relative to the last presidential election. The data out of Pennsylvania shows large differences in the number of votes cast by new voters, both by party registration and by gender. More new voters are registered Democrats than Republicans, and new female voters are driving this partisan gap. The new male voters are only slightly more likely to be Democrats than Republicans, but among new female voters, Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly 2 to 1. But the Republican advantage in new Arizona voters so far is being driven largely by male voters.

Persons: —, Joe Biden, Donald Trump ., Biden, Kamala Harris, Josh Clinton Organizations: NBC, Democratic, Trump, don’t, Republicans, Biden, New, Democrats, Arizona voters Locations: Pennsylvania, Arizona, Arizona , Nevada , North Carolina, Georgia , Michigan, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada

In fact, the state polls are showing not just an astonishingly tight race, but also an improbably tight race. Imagine if pollsters in this world conducted 100 identical surveys of 863 randomly selected voters (that’s the average sample size of this year’s swing state polls). Actual swing state polls show far less variation than the benchmarks we would expect in a perfect polling world. Visualizing how the reported polling margins compare to what we would expect in a perfect polling world strongly suggests “herding” of swing state polling margins around the statewide polling averages. The pattern is especially pronounced in Pennsylvania, where a huge share of the public polls have showed a tied race.

Persons: there’s, shouldn’t, Harris, Josh Clinton, pollsters, pollster Organizations: Trump, NBC, Pennsylvania Locations: Pennsylvania, Arizona , Michigan, Wisconsin

In 2020, election week replaced election night: Joe Biden wasn’t declared the winner until Saturday. The truth is the Decision Desk cannot know until election night which scenario will unfold, regardless of how carefully we have analyzed the polls, early vote, and other election-related data. One thing is clear: The days of projecting a winner on election night itself are almost certainly over. North Carolina has a similar pattern in how it reports out the vote, with 99% of the vote counted by midnight in past elections. And unlike some other close states, it wasn’t just because the margin was so thin.

Persons: It's, Joe Biden wasn’t, Joe Biden’s, let’s, John Fetterman, —, Stephen Pettigrew Organizations: NBC, Electoral College, Wednesday, Philadelphia, Senate, Congressional, NBC News Locations: Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Allegheny, Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Nebraska’s, Nebraska, Nevada

Nearly all of those jurisdictions provide multiple vote reports (updates to the vote count) on election night and in the following days. In the November 2020 election, NBC News received over 88,000 updates to its vote totals across 542 different races. ET that night, NBC News received just over four updates per second, on average. Since 2018, the NEP has received vote count data from Edison Research, a firm that specializes in collecting election data. What makes election results in this country trustworthy, however, are the countless fail-safes that detect and correct such mistakes.

Persons: Edison, ” Organizations: NBC News, NBC, ABC News, CBS News, CNN, Edison Research Locations: Washington, New England, Clark County , Nevada, Las Vegas, Maricopa County , Arizona, Phoenix, Milwaukee County, Wisconsin

On Nov. 5, the Decision Desk will project 610 races across all 50 states, from the presidential election to statewide and congressional contests. Early on election night, the Decision Desk uses exit poll data to determine whether it can project uncompetitive races. When a party has gained a majority of 218 seats in the House, the Decision Desk will project control for that party. Other sources for election vote data include state and county vote computer feeds and websites, when they are available. Exit poll results are independently analyzed in real time, and NBC News calls all races as soon as the Decision Desk is fully confident in the winner.

Persons: — Organizations: NBC, NBC News, Senate, ABC, CBS, CNN, Edison Research, Reuters, The Washington Post

Early on election night, the NBC News Decision Desk uses exit poll data to determine whether uncompetitive races can be called. No race is projected until the Decision Desk is at a minimum 99.5% confident of the winner. What kinds of calls and characterizations does the Decision Desk make? The Decision Desk will not use this characterization until we have statistical confidence that the race will be this close. When a party has gained a majority of seats in the Senate, the Decision Desk will project control for that party.

Search resuls for: "John Lapinski Is Director Of Elections At Nbc News"

7 mentions found