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John Hussman warns of poor S&P 500 returns over the next 12 years. Current expectations have the S&P 500 underperforming Treasurys by 9.9% annually over the next 12 years. But valuations are causing skepticism about future market returns among others on Wall Street, even if not to the same degree. Related storiesEarlier this week, Goldman Sachs forecast that the S&P 500 would average 3% annual returns over the next decade. His Strategic Growth Fund is down about 55% since December 2010 and has fallen 16% in the past 12 months.
Persons: John Hussman, , you'll, you'd, Hussman, Hussman's, it's, Goldman Sachs, It's Organizations: Treasurys, Service, Hussman Investment Trust
AdvertisementJohn Hussman, the president of the Hussman Investment Trust who called the 2000 and 2008 market crashes, isn't shy about his characterization of the current market environment. The first piece of evidence Hussman cites is valuation, specifically the total market cap of non-financial stocks to total value added of those stocks. He predicted in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely see negative total returns over the following decade, which it did. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 32% over the past year.
Persons: John Hussman, , It's, Mike Wilson, Michael Kantrowitz, Lance Armstrong, Hussman, Armstrong, David Walsh Organizations: Service, Hussman Investment Trust, Tour de France, Hussman, Intelligence, Labor Locations: Irish
Khurana thinks what has made boomers the wealthiest generation — stocks and housing — also makes them a risk to economic stability. AdvertisementSuch a scenario is an '"underappreciated risk," he said, given how much boomers' spending habits have fueled economic growth in recent years. The demographic spends around $548 billion a year, more than any other generation, according to a report from marketing research firm Epsilon. AdvertisementBroken down by each generation's holdings of property and stocks, boomers accounted for 42% of all real estate ownership and 54% of all corporate equity and mutual fund ownership. That's not to say boomers will cause the next recession, but the risk during a recession is dialed up under the current paradigm, Khurana said.
Persons: , America's, Brij, Khurana, boomers, they've, John Hussman, That's Organizations: Service, Wellington Management, Business, McKinsey & Company, New York Fed, Epsilon, New, Boomers, Federal Reserve, Governors Boomers, Governors Locations: New, New York, Florida and Texas
And yet, the unemployment rate continues to inch up, job openings continue to fall, and payroll data continue to underwhelm. But how long that enthusiasm can continue to outweigh declining labor market indicators remains to be seen. AdvertisementThe first is declining job openings, which are down to 7.6 million from 2022 highs above 12 million. BullAndBearProfits.comAnother sign Wolfenbarger shared showing the labor market is turning sour is the Kansas City Fed's Labor Market Conditions Index, which is a composite of 24 job market indicators. BullAndBearProfits.comFinally, in a September 2 note, Wolfenbarger shared a chart from Bank of America showing the decline in private job growth as a share of all job growth.
Persons: , Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, Wolfenbarger, there's, BullAndBearProfits.com, John, Hussman, Stocks Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Business, Kansas City Fed's Labor, BullAndBearProfits.com, Bank of America Locations: Kansas
Yes, the S&P 500 is just off of all-time highs following a 36% percent rally from October to July. Major stock prices begin to perform poorly, which drags down the S&P 500 Index, which in turn causes the selling of the index. The index selling puts a drag on the largest-cap stocks, which adds more legs to the index selling." The S&P 500 is up 49% since late 2022 as bears have continued to warn of downside. AdvertisementSecond, lower interest rates would spark demand and could cause inflation to resurface, which would be good for oil stocks, Smead said.
Persons: , Smead doesn't, Smead, Warren, We're, Dow, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, Stocks, LEN Organizations: Service, Business, Morningstar, Smead, Bank of America, Technology, Fund, Federal, Fed, DR, Occidental Petroleum, Apache
But it's hard to argue against the track record of his most preferred valuation measure — total market cap of non-financial stocks to total revenue of those stocks — when it comes to long-term stock-market returns. Unfortunately for investors, the measure just hit an all-time high, topping levels seen in 1929, 2000, 2008, and 2022. Here's the metric:AdvertisementHussman Funds"Last week, our most reliable measure of stock market valuations hit the highest extreme in history," Hussman wrote in a July 20 commentary. AdvertisementWhile Hussman's valuation measure doesn't necessitate near-term losses, there is some evidence that stocks could soon face downside. And as the stock market ground mostly higher, he persisted with his doomsday calls.
Persons: , John Hussman, Hussman, Jeremy Grantham Organizations: Service, Hussman Investment Trust, Business, Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Locations: recessionary
He's steering clear of Big Tech stocks, and for now he's only bullish on "dull, boring, and predictable" names. Tech stocks now account for highest portion of the S&P 500 since the early 2000s, according to an analysis from Société Générale. AdvertisementAnother risk to stocks lies in interest rates, Blain said, as borrowing costs look poised to stay higher for longer. "There is an awful lot of people in the financial markets who just don't understand that zero interest rates and ultra-low interest rates are not normal," Blain added. AdvertisementThe final risk Blain is eyeing is the upcoming presidential election, which contains a handful of uncertainties that could batter stocks, Blain said.
Persons: Bill Blain, Blain isn't, , that's, Blain, Biden, he's, Générale, John Hussman, I've, eyeing, We've, Morgan Stanley, Stifel, Richard Bernstein Organizations: Big Tech, Service, China, Nasdaq, Tech, stoke, Richard Bernstein Advisors
Recent data sets the Fed up to cut interest rates twice this year, JPMorgan's David Kelly said. The bank's chief global strategist predicted Fed rate cuts were coming in September and December. Yet, he warned that stocks are expensive, and investors should be wary of adding exposure at high valuations. The chief global strategist predicted central bankers would begin dialing back interest rates at the September policy meeting, with another cut likely in December. But rate cuts shouldn't be the signal for investors to flock to the stock market, Kelly said.
Persons: JPMorgan's David Kelly, , David Kelly, That's, Kelly, We've, John Hussman Organizations: Service, Asset, CNBC
"In contrast, current valuation extremes imply potential downside risk for the S&P 500 on the order of 50-70% over the completion of this cycle." JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic expects the S&P 500 to fall to 4,200, while more extreme forecasts include Jeremy Grantham's estimate in the low 3,000s. And as the stock market ground mostly higher, he persisted with his doomsday calls. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 26% over the past year.
Persons: , Jonathan Golub, Count John Hussman, Hussman, Hussman's, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Jeremy Grantham's Organizations: Service, UBS, Business, Hussman Investment Trust, New York Stock Exchange, Investor Intelligence
The economic outlook also looks precarious, given stubborn inflation and slowing growth. AdvertisementThe stock market looks poised for a correction, and a dicey economic and monetary policy environment could cause equities to dive 10%, according to Stifel's chief stock strategist Barry Bannister. Economic growth has been slowing, with GDP expanding by 1.4% in the first quarter, according to the latest revision. Sticky inflation also weighs on the outlook for Fed rate cuts, which poses more bad news for stocks. AdvertisementOther investing veterans have warned stocks are due for a comedown amid lofty valuations.
Persons: Stifel's Barry Bannister, , Barry Bannister, Bannister —, Bannister, that's, John Hussman Organizations: Service, Yahoo Finance, Fed
A high concentration of warning signals suggest a major market correction ahead, John Hussman said. AdvertisementA growing tally of ringing market alarms suggest the S&P 500 has at last reached its speculative peak, permabear John Hussman wrote on Monday. He predicted in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely see negative total returns over the following decade, which it did. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up significantly over the period.
Persons: John Hussman, , Hussman Organizations: Service, Hussman Investment, Dow
AdvertisementThe stock market is in for a correction, as a trio of unfavorable factors will weigh on equity prices, according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research. Tech stocks, which have dominated the market in recent years, are trading at a 68% premium. Stocks could see their first "crack in the ice" in the tech sector, he added, pointing to lofty valuations among mega-cap tech stocks. AdvertisementOther forecasters have warned of limited upside to the market as stocks — particularly tech stocks — continue to climb higher. According to one valuation metric, the stock market looks to be the most overvalued since 1929, which could pave the way to a steep correction, elite investor John Hussman warned.
Persons: Sam Stovall, , Stovall, Stocks, John Hussman Organizations: Service, CFRA Research, Wall, Treasury, Tech, CNBC
Here's what five forecasters have to say about the latest rally — and why they think the stock market is headed for a fall. In 2009, he wrote a book predicting a stock market crash and ensuing economic depression, which he said could last for 10 years or more. The research firm is predicting the S&P 500 could see a steep correction following a rally to 6,500. Yet, that could end up being an excellent opportunity for investors who are diversified in other areas of the market, Bernstein said. AdvertisementTypically, there are eight warning signs of a market bubble forming, and six of them have already flashed, the bank said.
Persons: Stocks, , haven't, Harry Dent Stocks, Harry Dent, Dent, John Higgins, Higgins, John Hussman, Hussman, Richard Bernstein, Bernstein Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, Apple, Nvidia, Fox Business Network, Stocks, Capital Economics, John Hussman Elite, UBS
Legendary investor John Hussman says the latest stock rally is rooted in the extreme fear of missing out. FOMO factors have surged in markets, and stock prices could fall 50%-70% this cycle. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. The legendary bear, famed for predicting the 2000 and 2008 crashes, reiterated that equities could drop as much as 70% this cycle. "Even the more conventional (but less reliable) S&P 500 price/forward operating earnings multiple is at levels that have no rivals except surrounding the 2000 and 2022 peaks," Hussman said.
Persons: John Hussman, , Hussman, Dow Organizations: Service, Hussman Investment Trust
Despite a stock market that's less than 1% away from record highs, bearish forecasts are out in full force. And a weakening in the labor market will crush investor confidence and send the stock market falling by as much as 30%. BCA Research: A recession in early 2025 will cause 30% stock market declineBCA strategist Roukaya Ibrahim warned that a 30% correction in the stock market could be sparked by a recession early next year. Rosenberg famously predicted the 2008 recession, but his consistently bearish economic outlooks since then have largely fallen flat. Advertisement"Forward earnings rose to a record high during April, consistent with a solid labor market.
Persons: , they're, Gary Shilling, we've, Shilling, BI's Jennifer Sor, we're, John Hussman, Hussman, wouldn't, Roukaya Ibrahim, Ibrahim, David Rosenberg, We're, Rosenberg, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, landers Organizations: Service, Wall, Hussman Investment Trust, BCA, Bloomberg Locations: Wall
The gauge is shown below in green and red alongside S&P 500 price action in blue. Most strategists at major Wall Street banks, meanwhile, generally see the S&P 500 staying above 5,000 through 2024. And as the stock market ground mostly higher, he persisted with his doomsday calls. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 26% over the past year.
Persons: Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, he's, Hussman, , it's, Warren Buffett, there's, David Rosenberg Organizations: Hussman Investment Trust, Business, CPS, Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Dynamics, bullish
The stock market looks poised to fall from its extreme heights, legendary investor John Hussman said. Hussman said the stock market is mirroring the extremes leading up the 1929 crash. The S&P 500 has broken a series of record highs this year, and has regained momentum in recent days after a lackluster month in April. AdvertisementHussman's firm is expecting the S&P 500 to underperform Treasury bonds by 9.3% a year for the next 12 years, based on his firm's internal metrics. Just 39% of investors said they were bullish on stocks over the next 6 months, according to the AAII's latest Investor Sentiment Survey.
Persons: John Hussman, Hussman, he's, Organizations: Service, Investment Trust, Investor
According to Bank of America, valuation levels explain 80% of the market's return over a 10-year period. Bank of AmericaThere are many ways to measure valuation levels in the overall market. Hussman says it's the most accurate indicator of future market returns that he's found. AdvertisementThe Conference BoardThird, the number of US states with a rising unemployment rate is spiking, meaning that the overall unemployment rate should see further upside. BullAndBearProfits.comThe US unemployment rate is already on a slight uptrend, having climbed from 3.4% in April 2023 to 3.9% as of February.
Persons: , Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, John Hussman's, he's, Warren Buffett, Wolfenbarger, Stocks, Woflenbarger, Cam Harvey, Claudia Sahm, Louis Fed, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, David Rosenberg, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, America's Savita Subramanian, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Business, JPMorgan, National Federation of Independent Business, Board, Treasury, Bank, America's
New York CNN —The “Buffett Indicator” is flashing red. If the stock market is growing a lot faster than the economy, that could be a sign of a bubble. Yes, but: The so-called Buffett Indicator is not without flaw. By the closing bell, Trump Media ended at $57.99, up by a more modest 16% on the day. He said Trump Media is likely worth somewhere around $2 a share — nowhere near its closing stock price of $58.
Persons: Warren Buffett, Fortune Magazine “, Berkshire Hathaway, John Hussman, Hussman, Larry Summers, , , Louis Navellier, Goldman Sachs, Navellier, doesn’t, Buffett, they’re, Jamie Dimon, Kevin Gordon, Charles Schwab, Elisabeth Buchwald, Donald Trump’s, CNN’s Matt Egan, Jay Ritter, Ritter Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Fortune Magazine, Nvidia, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Navellier, Associates, , JPMorgan, CNBC, CNN, Visa, Mastercard, Court, Eastern, of, National Retail Federation, Trading, Trump Media & Technology Group, Trump Media, University of Florida’s Warrington College of Business, GameStop, AMC Locations: New York, of New York
Jeffrey Gundlach compared the AI-fueled boom in stocks to the dot-com bubble. DoubleLine Capital's billionaire CEO predicted sticky inflation and an economic slump. Two other market gurus, Bill Gross and John Hussman, warned of extreme stock valuations this week. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementJeffrey Gundlach has warned the AI-crazed stock market reminds him of the dot-com bubble — and predicted a painful mix of stubborn inflation and economic decline lies ahead.
Persons: Jeffrey Gundlach, Bill Gross, John Hussman, Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, Business
Hussman FundsThese levels indicate the S&P 500 is likely to return around -5% annualized over the next 12 years, according to Hussman's math. AdvertisementBy the time the current market cycle bottoms out, the S&P 500 could well have fallen by 50%-70%, Hussman said. He predicted in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely see negative total returns over the following decade, which it did. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 33% over the past year.
Persons: , John Hussman's, Hussman, he's, we've, Jeremy Grantham, Grantham, There's, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's, Gary Shilling Organizations: Service, Hussman Investment Trust, Business, Exchange, Federal Locations: Miami
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewWarren Buffett's favorite market gauge has surged to a two-year high of 184%, signaling stocks are overvalued and could suffer a devastating crash. Investors use it to compare the overall value of the stock market to the size of the national economy. It also relies on GDP, which excludes overseas income, whereas US stocks price in the value of companies' domestic and international operations. AdvertisementYet the metric's return to the lofty levels that preceded past market disasters is a clear red flag for some experts.
Persons: , Warren, Buffett, yardstick, Buffett's yardstick, John Hussman, Paul Dietrich, Riley Wealth Organizations: Service, Business, Wilshire Indexes, Wilshire, Nvidia, Microsoft, Federal, Nasdaq, Hussman Investment Trust Locations: Wilshire, Berkshire
Market bears calling for a 60% crash in the S&P 500 could soon be proven correct, Milton Berg said. The technical analyst said that stocks may be close to a final peak as speculation runs hot. Berg warned a recession appears likely based on several economic indicators that are flashing red. AdvertisementStocks might crash up to 60%, a recession seems likely, and market speculation has reached dangerous levels, a veteran technical analyst warned. AdvertisementBerg, a former advisor to elite investors like George Soros and Stanley Druckenmiller, now runs Milton Berg Advisors.
Persons: Milton Berg, Berg, , they've, John Hussman, Jeremy Grantham, who's, George Soros, Stanley Druckenmiller Organizations: Service, Milton Berg Advisors, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Netflix Locations: Milton
Read previewThe S&P 500 surpassed 5,000 for the first time on Friday, riding a wave of investor optimism about the health of the US economy. It's represented by the red line in the chart below, while the S&P 500 is shown in blue. Here's a chart from a regression analysis by Bank of America showing the impact that valuations have on long-term stock market returns. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 23% over the past year.
Persons: , John Hussman, Hussman, It's, Tom Lee, Jeffrey Buchbinder, Adam Turnquist Organizations: Service, Hussman Investment Trust, Business, Hussman, Bank of America
Right now, it shows the S&P 500 at levels higher than during the dot-com bubble. According to Hussman's model, the S&P 500 will underperform Treasurys by about 7.5% over the next 12 years, the lowest projection since the 2000 and 1929 bubbles. Actual S&P 500 performance tends to follow Hussman's projections closely. Here's the Shiller cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500, which averages valuations over the prior 10 years. Much of those gains are thanks to the so-called "Magnificent 7" stocks, the S&P 500's biggest seven stocks by market cap.
Persons: John Hussman, Hussman, Here's, Adam Turnquist Organizations: Hussman Investment Trust, Business, Treasury, Federal, LPL Financial Locations: it's
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