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Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during the opening bell on Nov. 13, 2024. Stock futures were slightly higher on Sunday night as Wall Street awaits a major earnings week and monitors a seemingly fizzled out postelection rally. S&P futures added 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.2%. The next major catalyst for the market this week will be Nvidia earnings, which are set to be released on Wednesday. Earnings from Palo Alto Networks and several major retailers, including Walmart , Target and Ross , are also on deck this week.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Jerome Powell, selloff, FactSet's John Butters Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal, Traders, Blackwell, Palo Alto Networks, Walmart, Target Locations: 18.680.12, Palo
.SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD It's because the economy and earnings remain resilient. That is the main reason the S & P 500 is less than 2% from its historic high. Third quarter earnings for the S & P 500 are up 8.4%, well above the 6.0% estimated at the start of October. It's fourth quarter earnings that matter Remember, the most important thing to watch is the trend and whether it is accelerating or decelerating. The S & P 500 is up 50% in those two years.
Persons: There's, Tom Lee, Phil Mackintosh, Mackintosh, John Butters, Scott Chronert, Alec Young, MapSignals.com, Young, We're Organizations: Tech, Nasdaq, Democrat, Republican, Citigroup Locations: backwardation
Octavio Jones | ReutersExecutives at America's largest companies are talking publicly with investors about the presidential election more so than in recent cycles. The word "election" came up on 100 earnings calls of S&P 500 -listed firms between Sept. 15 and Oct. 31, according to FactSet. The U.S. presidential election is Tuesday Nov. 5. 'Prudent' clientsMultiple companies cited a feeling of unpredictability tied to the presidential race among consumers and business clients. To be sure, some of the "election" mentions this year were tied to unrelated events like enrollment periods for health care.
Persons: Blythe Andrews , Jr, Octavio Jones, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Richard Tobin, FactSet, John Butters, Harris, Trump, Harry Lawton, Hurricanes Helene, Andrew Watterson, Michael Bayley, Gary Hershorn, Stanley Black, Decker, Donald Allan, Decker's Allan, William Grogan, Jon Vander Ark, Eric Ashleman, hasn't, Nonfarm payrolls, Equifax, Mark Begor, Stephen Squeri, we've, Mark Parrell Organizations: Public, Reuters, America's, CNBC, U.S, Dover, Tractor Supply, Hurricanes, Southwest Airlines, Royal, Hollywood International Airport, Corbis, Republican, Republic, Boeing, Tyler Technologies, American Express, Equity Locations: Tampa , Florida, U.S, Milton, Royal Caribbean, Fort Lauderdale, Fort Lauderdale , Florida, America, China
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - OCTOBER 16: Traders and others work on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) floor in New York City. U.S. stock futures ticked higher Sunday night after the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 notched their best weekly win streaks of 2024. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.13% and 0.16%, respectively. Roughly one-fifth of S&P 500 companies are set to report through Friday. Of the 14% of S&P 500 companies that have already posted third-quarter results, 79% have beaten expectations, according to FactSet's John Butters.
Persons: FactSet's John Butters, Sam Stovall Organizations: NEW, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Dow, U.S, CFRA Research Locations: New York City . U.S
Earnings next week will be key to where stocks head from here. While roughly one-tenth of S & P 500 companies reported over the past week, about 20% of the broader index plans to report next week. He noted that the S & P 500 is trading at a 40% premium to its long-term P/E ratio, while tech stocks are trading at upwards of 60%. For the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S & P 500 , it's the first such streak going back to December 2023. Meanwhile, the equal-weighted S & P 500 slightly outpaced the market-cap weighted benchmark this week, a bullish signal for sectors such as health care.
Persons: Sam Stovall, Stovall, FactSet's John Butters, Butters, it's, Tesla, Lockheed Martin, Russell, Nelson Yu, Harker Organizations: U.S, CFRA Research, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Lockheed, GE Aerospace, Business Machines, General Motors, Verizon Communications, United Parcel Services, Southwest Airlines, Nvidia, Philadelphia Reserve, Chicago, PMI, New, . Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Locations: Independence, Philadelphia, . Kansas
The S & P 500 is off by nearly 9%, and it could soon join the tech-heavy index. .VIX 1D mountain VIX On Wall Street, however, many investors expect the fears of a slowing economy are overdone, and that markets are overreacting. "We don't see an earnings recession, we don't see an economic recession," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research. The strategist expects the S & P 500 could fall into a correction, somewhere between 10% and 15%. To be sure, investors who aren't expecting a recession say any weakness in the consumer should continue to be monitored.
Persons: It's, Stocks, Mark Malek, Siebert, Malek, nonfarm, John Butters, , Sam Stovall, Stovall, that's, aren't, Siebert's Malek, Jamie Meyers, he's, we've, it's, I've, Meyers, CFRA's Stovall Organizations: Nikkei, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Treasury, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta's, Bank of America, CFRA, Nvidia Locations: Japan, U.S
Goldman Sachs said this week that there are plenty of cheap tech stocks to buy coming out of earnings. The information technology sector has reported a year-over-year earnings growth rate of 23.2%, according to John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet. CNBC Pro combed through Goldman Sachs' research to find the most underappreciated buy-rated tech stocks. "Second, ANET has growing confidence in its AI position and its > $750 mn AI revenue target for 2025," he added. Second, ANET has growing confidence in its AI position and its > $750 mn AI revenue target for 2025.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, John Butters, Goldman, Noah Poponak, Poponak, Kash Rangan, Rangan, Michael Ng, Arista's, Ng, ANET Organizations: FactSet, CNBC, Microsoft, Teledyne Technologies, Arista Networks, Arista, TAM, Cloud Titans, Cloud Locations: 2H24
A whirlwind earnings week saw traders jumping in and out of some of the biggest stocks in the market. For example, shares of Meta Platforms fell 10.6% on Thursday after earnings beat expectations, but revenue guidance was weak . On a chart, those big post-earnings moves can leave "gaps" that may become a key area to watch going forward. What's next for Meta Meta looks like a potential example of the gap being filled after its sharp drop on Thursday. A macro view The big moves by tech giants this past week could make index-level trades a bit tricky.
Persons: John Butters, Katie Stockton, Stockton, What's, , Frank Gretz, Wellington Shields, Gretz, Larry Benedict, Benedict Organizations: Meta, CNBC, Nvidia, Wellington, Intel, Microsoft Locations: FactSet
The result was a 1.5-percent weekly drop in the S & P 500 , with Friday's setback exacerbated at least somewhat by a collective clenching-up of risk markets on some geopolitical worry. This dynamic hasn't been reversed, but the signal has grown a bit staticky, draining some conviction from the macro bullish case with the S & P 500 still 24% above the October low. Bull market's backdrop First, it's a bull market, and not a particularly mature or excessively generous one yet. Yet both stocks are still outperforming the S & P this year. The S & P 500 closed Friday at exactly the same level of five weeks earlier, on March 8 – which was perhaps the moment of maximum investor confidence in the "we can have it all" thesis.
Persons: I've, Jerome Powell, Powell, Wall, it's, We're, John Butters, Fastenal, Scott Chronert Organizations: Federal, ICE, Treasury, CPI, Fed, Grainger, Citi
Despite Thursday's declines, the S & P 500 is only 2% from last week's record highs. The surprise isn't that the S & P 500 dropped Thursday. .SPX 6M mountain S & P 500, 6 months First-quarter earnings estimates for the S & P 500 have slipped to an expected gain of 5.1%, down from an anticipated increase of 7.2% on Jan. 1, according to LSEG. Since earnings are what ultimately moves stocks, the question is not "What would cause a modest 2% to 5% decline?" To do that, market participants would need to believe that earnings estimates were off significantly.
Persons: Daniel Kahneman, Joe Biden, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel, Neel Kashkari, it's, John Butters, Charles Schwab Organizations: Economic Sciences, Israel's, Federal Reserve Bank of, FactSet Locations: Gaza, Iran, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
It's time to buckle up: Investors holding these stocks could be in for a wild ride this week. A review of companies set to report earnings this week shows that some names may post sharp moves following their results, according to CNBC calculations based on FactSet data. For example, Snap , which reports Tuesday, could see its stock price move up or down about 17% following the news. Here are some other stocks that may move the most in response to news this week. Affirm , the buy now, pay later financial services company, could move up or down 15% following its earnings results, which are set for release Thursday.
Persons: John Butters, Morgan Stanley Organizations: CNBC, Ford Motor, Walt Disney Company, PepsiCo, Spirit Airlines, Palantir Technologies
Six of the Magnificent Seven companies — Alphabet , Apple , Amazon.com , Meta Platforms , Microsoft and Nvidia — are set to be the top six companies driving year-over-year earnings growth in the fourth quarter, Butters noted. Without them, earnings in the other 494 other S & P 500 companies are set to have fallen by 10.5%. And, taken as a whole, S & P 500 earnings are tracking to have eased 1.4% in the quarter. "Are companies in the 'Magnificent 7' ... expected to drive earnings higher for the S & P 500 for the fourth quarter?" In the first quarter of 2024, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms and Nvidia are projected to report year-over-year earnings growth of almost 80%.
Persons: John Butters, Butters, Dave Sekera, Sekera, FactSet's John Butters Organizations: FactSet, Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple, Morningstar Research Services Locations: U.S
Their huge and growing earnings, combined with a large number of shares outstanding, mean that the three companies exert a bigger influence on the S & P 500 earnings picture than any other. Fourth quarter earnings for the entire S & P 500 are expected to rise about 5% over the same period in 2022. For share-weighted earnings, the earnings (or earnings estimates) for each company are multiplied by the shares outstanding. What this means is that companies that are experiencing a rapid increase in their earnings can begin to exert an outsized influence on S & P 500 earnings. In a world where the S & P 500 is expected to see earnings growth of 10% this year, Nvidia's earnings growth is off the charts.
Persons: Technolgy, Nvidia —, John Butters, Jensen, Howard Silverblatt Organizations: Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Meta, P Global Locations: FactSet
Friday UnitedHealth is set to report earnings before the bell, with a conference call scheduled for 8:45 a.m. JPMorgan Chase is set to report earnings before the market opens. Management has said it will disclose severance costs and job cuts along with fourth quarter earnings." Delta Air Lines is set to report earnings before the bell, followed by a call at 10 a.m. What history shows: Bank of America beats earnings estimates 79% of the time, per Bespoke.
Persons: Wells, John Butters, Butters, UNH, UnitedHealth, CVS, JPMorgan Chase, Hugh Son, Jane, DAL, Leslie Josephs Organizations: JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, Delta Airlines, CNBC, LSEG, JPMorgan, First, Management, Delta Air Lines, CNBC CNBC, Delta Locations: Wells Fargo
The S & P 500 , which had consolidated with a low-volatility sideways slide for three weeks, nudged to a new 20-month high just above 4600, almost precisely a 20% year-to-date gain. Just because the S & P 500 is at 4600 and Federal-funds futures markets project high odds of several rate cuts next year, it doesn't mean the former is reliant on the latter. Yet — just relax — in seven of the past 12 years, the S & P 500 went on to surpass this year-ahead analyst composite target. It's pretty popular to cast doubt on the achievability of the consensus 11.8% forecast S & P 500 earnings growth for 2024. A broadening beyond 2023's growth leadership is necessary for further S & P 500 gains.
Persons: YTD, Jerome Powell, Powell, John Butters, Scott Chronert Organizations: Federal, Fed, Bank of America, Wall, Merck, Pfizer, Citi, Treasury
The analyst community (which forecasts individual stock earnings and prices) is also making estimates for 2024. Unfortunately, like their macroeconomic strategist brethren, Wall Street analysts also have a long history of being wrong on their forecasts. Since the S & P 500 rises in almost three out of four years, analysts are understandably a generally bullish group. There have been four years in the last 20 where the analyst estimates at the start of the year differed from the final estimates by a margin greater than 25%. No wonder the S & P 500 closed Friday at a new high for the year.
Persons: Bob, John Butters, FactSet, Morgan Housel Organizations: Wall Street
Horton is set to report earnings before the bell, followed by a conference call at 8:30 a.m. Wednesday Biogen is set to report earnings in the premarket. Disney is set to report earnings after the close, with a conference call scheduled for 4:30 p.m. MGM Resorts is set to report earnings after the closing bell, with a call slated for 5 p.m. What history shows: MGM only exceeds earnings estimates 53% of the time, Bespoke data shows.
Persons: Horton, FactSet's John Butters, Butters, D.R, DHI, BIIB, WBD, Max, Bank of America Jessica Reif Ehrlich, Goldman Sachs, Brett Feldman, Bill Hornbuckle, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Disney, MGM Resorts, CNBC, LSEG, Federal Reserve, Investment, Warner Bros, Warner Bros Discovery, Warner, Bank of America, MGM Locations: Macao
The S & P 500 was expected to see an earnings gain of 11% for the fourth quarter on Oct. 1, and that expectation is now down to 7.8%. "We're seeing larger estimate cuts than average for S & P 500 companies through the first month of the fourth quarter," John Butters at FactSet said. Roughly 60 companies in the S & P 500 have disclosed declines of 10% or more in their earnings expectations in the month of October, according to LSEG. Earnings revisions: Notable declines in airlines and cruise lines Here are some of the S & P 500 companies that have seen earnings estimates decline 10% or more since the start of the fourth quarter, according to LSEG. The markets have sniffed this out: What's next The stock market, of course, does not wait for analysts to cut earnings estimates.
Persons: John Butters, FactSet, Nick Raich, Refiners Valero, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Alec Young Organizations: Boeing, . Airlines, Companies, Cruise Lines American Airlines, Cruise Line, Alaska Air Group, Southwest Airlines, Airlines, Delta, Entertainment Warner Bros Discovery, Paramount Global, Fox, MGM Resorts, Ford, Motors, Pfizer, Merck, Petroleum, Phillips, Seagate, Texas, Banks, Capital Markets, Blackstone, Intel, JETS, Energy, Pharmaceuticals
Results haven't been bad, but the macro is overwhelming everything, and fourth-quarter guidance is slipping. Here's a general rule for the stock market: earnings are the main determinant of stock prices in the long run, but in rare cases macro trends can overwhelm their message. Earnings are OK, but the trend is down On the surface, this looks like a good earnings season. With earnings, however, it's the trend in the forward quarter that matters: is the trend up or down? If Treasury yields stabilize or even move lower, that will be a more important factor than a slightly lower earnings environment.
Persons: Here's, CNBC's Robert Hum, Sellers, Chubb, Sherwin, Williams, Kimberly Clark, Campbell, Swift, FactSet's John Butters, what's Organizations: Microsoft, Waste, Norfolk, Procter, Gamble, Pepsi, Soft, Nvidia, Express, Visa, Southwest Airlines Locations: Meta, Winnebago, Corning, Big Tech, Treasurys
Regional banks will be in focus in the week ahead as traders head into the thick of third-quarter earnings season. Regional bank earnings are also expected to be a weak point this season. But a closer look into the sector's sub-industries showed that regional banks are anticipated to have tumbled by 15% last quarter. Traders parsing through regional bank earnings will pay special attention to signs of narrowing net interest margins (NIM). Earnings season underway Many investors anticipate that the third-quarter earnings season will be alright.
Persons: Wells, Kumar, FactSet's John Butters, NIM, They'll, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, FactSet's Butters, Nancy Tengler, Lauren Goodwin, we'll, Goodwin, Charles Schwab, Lockheed Martin, Goldman, Zions, Kinder Morgan, Lam, McLennan, Philip Morris, Huntington Bancshares, , Jesse Pound Organizations: Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Sri, Kumar, Silicon Valley Bank, Regional Banking, Dow Jones Industrial, JPMorgan, Hamas, Northern Trust, U.S . Bancorp, T Bank, Citizens Financial, Bank of America, Federal Reserve, Companies, Investments, New York Life Investments, Index, Johnson, Bank of New York Mellon, Goldman Sachs Group, Hunt Transport Services, Omnicom, United Airlines Wednesday, Housing, Elevance, Citizens Financial Group, Procter, Gamble, Abbott Laboratories, Discover Financial Services, Las Vegas Sands, PPG Industries, Steel Dynamics, Tesla, Netflix, Lam Research, Philadelphia Fed, Truist, Alaska Air Group, Fifth Third Bancorp, American Airlines Group, Marsh, Philip Morris International, Union, CSX, Comerica, Regions Financial, American Express, Interpublic, Cos Locations: Wells Fargo, Silicon, Ukraine, Israel, J.B, Las Vegas, Philadelphia, Truist Financial, Union Pacific, Freeport, Huntington
Q3 S & P 500 earnings: Trending higher July 1: $55.76 Today: $55.78 Source: LSEG Q4 S & P 500 earnings: Trending higher July 1: $57.58 Today: $58.14 Source: LSEG The fact that the third quarter estimate of $55.78 is slightly below the third quarter of last year ($56.02) is not important; what matters is the trend in earnings. For Q3 2023, 76 S & P 500 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 42 S & P 500 companies have issued positive EPS guidance, according to John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet. "The earnings outlook for the S & P 500 for the third quarter is less negative relative to recent quarters," Butters told clients. "The percentage of companies issuing negative earnings guidance is equal to the 10-year average." Here's what stands out: The average earnings growth was 10.6%; the average revenue growth was 4.2%.
Persons: , John Butters, Butters, Nick Raich, It's, Chadha Organizations: FactSet, Companies, FedEx, Oracle, Darden, Costco, Pepsi, PepsiCo, Frito, Barclays, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank Locations: America, AutoZone, United States, Mexico, Russia, Canada, China, South Africa, Japan, abate
After September lived up to its reputation as the worst month of the year, bulls are hopeful earnings will prove a welcome distraction for a stock market mired in weak seasonal trends and rising interest rates. "Net net, the earnings estimates for these early reporters are going up, and that is a positive sign for earnings season," Earnings Scout founder and CEO Nick Raich from told me. Valuations are coming down but are still high The forward multiple for the S & P 500 (Q4 2023, and Q1-Q3 for 2024) is 17.9. For example, industrials have seen a significant decline in earnings estimates due to very large estimate declines for Boeing. Bulls hopeful earnings will prove a welcome distraction The expectations for rising earnings has many hopeful that it will help get stocks out of their recent rut due to rising interest rates.
Persons: Nick Raich, John Butters, Nicholas Colas, Raich Organizations: JPMorgan, FedEx, Oracle, Darden, Costco, Pepsi, General Motors, Ford, Netflix, NVIDIA, Apple, Intel, Boeing, Southwest Airlines, American Airlines, United Parcel Service Locations: AutoZone, Horton
CNBC Daily Open: Markets are playing a waiting game
  + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. President Joe Biden, likewise, expressed optimism that a deal with Republicans to raise or suspend the debt ceiling could be reached. Biden will meet congressional leaders today to continue talks about the debt ceiling. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.
CNBC Daily Open: Investors are playing a waiting game
  + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. President Joe Biden, likewise, expressed optimism that a deal with Republicans to raise or suspend the debt ceiling could be reached. The S&P 500 added 0.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.14% to snap a five-day losing streak and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.66%. Biden will meet congressional leaders today to continue talks about the debt ceiling. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.
S&P 500 companies are expected to post a 7% decline in first-quarter earnings, per FactSet. This will be the largest earnings decline since a 32% slump in the second quarter of 2020. The estimated 6.8% decline in first-quarter earnings is not just the lowest in two years, but also below the five-year earnings growth rate of 13.4% and the 10-year earnings growth rate of 8.7%, per FactSet. FactSet's analysis was based on 106 S&P companies that issued guidance on their first-quarter earnings per share. Consumer discretionary and industrials are expected to lead those reporting on-year earnings growth.
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