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☆ Mortgage rates surge higher on Trump victory, causing housing stocks to fall
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-06 | by ( Diana Olick | In Dianaolick | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

"The expectation among bond traders coming into the election was that rates would move higher in the event of a Trump victory and especially a red sweep. "The builder stocks are highly sensitive to mortgage rates and mortgage rate expectations. Big builders have been buying down mortgage rates for their customers, but that has been cutting into their margins. Mortgage rates don't follow the Fed, but do react to the central bank's thinking on the economy. Stronger-than-expected economic reports in September and October caused bond yields, and consequently mortgage rates, to move higher.

Persons: Donald Trump's, Matthew Graham, Horton, PulteGroup, Lowe's, John Burns, Trump, Carl Harris, Graham Organizations: Mortgage News, Trump, . Housing, John Burns Real Estate Consulting, National Association of Home Builders, Federal Reserve, National Association of Realtors Locations: U.S, D.R

☆ How one real-estate unicorn is getting past gutting layoffs and slowing deals
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-08 | by ( Alex Nicoll | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Rising interest rates have slammed the brakes on deals, and many real-estate companies have cut staff as revenues slowed. Founded in 2020 by real-estate executives Ryan Stroker and William Martiner, Avenue One was profitable by early 2021, company officials told Business Insider. AdvertisementAvenue One cofounder and CEO Ryan Stroker told BI in an interview how the company is navigating the difficult business environment. "I was told that I wasn't spending enough money six months before the layoffs," Stroker said. Layoffs and Big SpendingBoth Stroker and Avenue One's followup statement said the company is financially secure and described the layoffs as prudent rather than necessary.

Persons: It's, Ryan Stroker, William Martiner, Wall, Stroker, Martiner, John Burns, Ryan, Axel Springer Organizations: Service, KKR, Global, Business, MetLife, Wall, Amherst, John Burns Real Estate Consulting, BI Locations: Manhattan, Axel

☆ What it will take to make homes affordable again for millions of Americans
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( Tim Mullaney | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +12 min

"At the current 8% mortgage rate, mortgage payment[s] are 38% of median income," Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi said. The National Association of Realtors measures affordability through its 34-year old Housing Affordability Index, or HAI. And even if home prices do the decline, that trend won't be sustainable unless America builds millions of more homes. And spreads will likely remain extra-wide until short-term interest rates drop below the rates on longer-term treasuries, Duncan said. "Mortgage rates will not go back to 3% – we'll be lucky if we get back to 5," Yun said.

Persons: —, John Burns, maven Mohamed El, Lawrence Yun, Yun, Mark Zandi, That's, Doug Duncan, Fannie, Duncan, Daryl Fairweather, They've, Fairweather, they've, Freddie Mac, –, Zandi, it's Organizations: Nurphoto, Getty, National Association of Realtors, John Burns Real Estate Consulting, NAR, Redfin, Allianz, America, Federal Reserve, realtors, Builders, Fed Locations: Florida, Austin , Texas, Boise , Idaho, Fannie Mae, America, New York, California, Phoenix, Tampa, Louisville, Indianapolis, Chicago

☆ Lumber prices defy the most recent surge in mortgage rates to extend 3-day rally to 10%
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Lumber prices staged a 3-day rally of 10% despite continued headwinds in the housing market. The average 30-year mortgage rate closed in on 6% this week, hitting its highest level since 2008. The gains come despite continued headwinds in the housing market, particularly a surge in mortgage rates. Another builder in Harrisburg said it saw a big uptick in buying activity when mortgage rates briefly dipped in early August to 5%, signaling how strongly correlated mortgage rates are to home sales. There has been little lag between mortgage rates and a hike in the Federal Funds Rate, as has been seen when the Fed first began raising rates in March, precisely when mortgage rates also began to soar.

Persons: Homebuilders, doesn't bode, Freddie Mac, John Burns, Austin Organizations: Service, John Burns Real Estate Consulting, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon, Tampa, Harrisburg, Philadelphia

☆ Arizona governor slams the brakes on Phoenix development because it doesn't have enough water
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-04 | by ( ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Arizona will halt approvals of new developments that don't plan for alternate water sources. The new rule applies to the Phoenix area, whose population just topped 5 million in 2022. The state is also under federal pressure to use less water from the Colorado River. But regulators won't be approving new developments in areas around Phoenix that depend solely on groundwater supplies. Hobbs said a study of the project showed that it will require water sources other than groundwater.

Persons: Katie Hobbs, Hobbs, Phoenix, John Burns Organizations: Service, Los Angeles Times, Democrat, LA Times, Developers, Census, John Burns Real Estate Consulting, Gov Locations: Arizona, Phoenix, Colorado, Arizona , California, Nevada, Chandler, Houston, John Burns Real Estate Consulting . Arizona

☆ Wall Street landlords with billions in their coffers have gone silent, patiently waiting for cheaper homes to buy
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-21 | by ( Alex Nicoll | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

For the first two or so years of the pandemic, it looked like big, corporate landlords would buy up so many rental homes that they'd soon control the market that had been the purview of mom-and-pop owners. But five months in, the lull that started the year persists, said analysts at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, a purveyor of real-estate data. According to JT Graham, a John Burns analyst who attended an April conference of the SFR lobbying group National Home Rental Council, the buzzword there was "patience." For those that do make the trip, they can console themselves that the industry's fundamentals are strong enough to offset headwinds such as soaring taxes and slowing rent growth, John Burns analysts said. They're also able to absorb defaults and vacancies in the way small landlords can't as their costs increase.

☆ Mortgage demand rises despite volatile interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Diana Olick | In Dianaolick | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Demand for mortgages increased for the second straight week, despite some volatility in mortgage rates. That was the average, but mortgage rates were largely higher for most of the week before dropping sharply Friday on news of the Silicon Valley Bank failure. Despite rates being higher, mortgage applications to purchase a home rose 7% for the week but were still 38% lower than the same week a year ago. "That always happens when rates surge and it only lasts a few weeks," said John Burns of John Burns Real Estate Consulting, who said he saw an increase in sales of newly built homes in February despite higher rates. Mortgage rates dropped further Monday, according to a separate survey from Mortgage News Daily, but bounced higher again Tuesday after the February consumer price index was released, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates again next week despite recent banking industry turmoil.

☆ The Phoenix housing bubble spectacularly popped in 2008. Countless signs point towards a similar struggle now. Here's how bad it really is.
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-05 | by ( Alcynna Lloyd | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

Phoenix's housing market is quickly deteriorating as a pullback in demand triggers home price declines. And as Phoenix's housing market performs an about-face from the dramatic rise it had witnessed from spring 2020 through summer 2022, experts across the country are debating the possibility of the whole market imploding. And as of January 2023, area home sales are down 74% year-over-year, according to John Burns Real Estate Consulting. The Phoenix Valley — a sprawling desert metropolis that's home to nearly 5 million people — is no stranger to speculative real estate bubbles. Phoenix's housing market could be on track to normalizingDespite the numerous indicators of a weakening housing market, Phoenix may simply be facing a correction versus a crash, several experts told Insider.

☆ A 24-year-old homebuyer whose builder paid for a lower mortgage interest rate said it was what he needed to purchase his first home
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( Alcynna Lloyd | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

During the first year of his loan, Ogata will have an interest rate of 6.1% for a 30-year-fixed mortgage rate. Once the year is completed, his interest rate will climb to 7.1%. A study from John Burns Real Estate Consulting shows that as of December, 75% of US homebuilders were offering mortgage rate buydowns. "The biggest thing that triggered it was when interest rates unprecedentedly doubled in a very short amount of time," Todd told Insider. Needing a way to address the decline in affordability, Todd says a mortgage rate buydown program was naturally the best tool in their deck.

☆ Here’s what to expect in the housing market this year
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Washington, DC CNN —Last year was a wild ride in the US housing market. So what’s in store for the housing market this year? “Mortgage rates are really critical to the path of the housing market in the year ahead,” said Jeff Tucker, senior economist at Zillow. “Yes, things have cooled way down in the housing market, but we don’t have a glut of homes for sale,” said Tucker. A plain, boring, vanilla year in the housing market would be a wonderful surprise.”

☆ Wall Street landlords who've stockpiled $110 billion are lying in wait for their biggest American home-buying spree yet
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( James Rodriguez | Daniel Geiger | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

Institutional investors have earmarked as much as $110 billion to buy or build single-family homes. Institutional investors now own about 3% of the roughly 20 million single-family-rental homes in the US, according to Roofstock, an online marketplace for single-family investment properties. That would be nearly 9% of the roughly 88 million single-family homes in the US, according to the Census Bureau's most recent statistics from 2020. Better deals expected in the years aheadThere are signs the institutional investors won't have to wait long to begin buying. That leaves between roughly $70 billion and $80 billion that could still flow into the sector.

☆ Homebuilders are fronting thousands of dollars in cash to help buyers reduce their mortgage rate and make homes more affordable
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-13 | by ( Robert Davis | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Mortgage rate buydowns are a home financing tool that provides buyers with a lower interest rate. Homebuilders are employing rate buydowns the most in areas where home prices are falling the fastest. A prevalent trend that builders are leaning into in order to help them sell more homes amid an increasingly tough economic climate is paying for mortgage rate buydowns for prospective buyers. A rate buydown is an upfront payment for "discount points" at closing to reduce the rate on a fixed-rate mortgage term. The company is offering what's known as a 2-1 buydown where a buyer's mortgage rate is decreased by 2% during their first year and 1% in their second year before returning to a fixed rate for the remaining duration of the loan.

☆ Homebuyers are losing out on homes and big deposits as affordability escapes them
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( Kelsey Neubauer | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Many people who put thousands down on new homes canceled their contracts and lost money, per NPR. They told NPR they didn't have a choice because the payments had grown since rates rose. That's because home builders are feeling the heat too — Paul Schwinghammer, president of the Indiana Builders Association, told NPR that many home builders can't afford to give back the cash. "The sales guy, he always tells us we're going to lose the deposit if we don't buy the house," Paulo Echeverry, one such person, told NPR. Today, with the average 30-year mortgage rate at 6.33%, according to Freddie Mac, the same home would be $1,475 per month, according to Insider's mortgage calculator, a 45% increase in monthly payments.

☆ Those deciding whether to rent or buy in 2023 are stuck: Rents are expected to increase more than home prices, but it will still be costly to buy.
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-04 | by ( Jordan Pandy | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Rents are expected to grow more than home prices in 2023, according to Realtor.com. But mortgage rates are also expected to grow, potentially negating any advantages to buying. However, mortgage rates are expected to rise more than they already have this year. A 2023 housing forecast from Realtor.com predicted a 7.4% average for mortgage rates in 2023, which would push homebuyers' monthly payments up and generally make homeownership more costly. According to Realtor.com, mortgage payments will likely increase by 28% in 2023, making the typical monthly payment about $2,430.

☆ Home flippers are having a tough time selling to regular people who need a mortgage, so they're offloading their properties to big investors instead
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Alcynna Lloyd | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

New data reveals that larger real estate businesses are buying flipped homes from smaller investors. This shift in the market has caused these smaller operators to place their faith elsewhere: In big institutional investors. "Flippers may opt to sell to institutional buyers in today's environment since they can usually close quickly and may not be as rate-sensitive," Thomas said. Exacerbating a housing shortage and high rentsAs institutional investors continue to swallow up homes, they are exacerbating housing shortages in the neighborhoods they occupy. "When a hedge fund comes in and buys up a bunch of single-family properties, those houses are gone," Doug Greene, owner of Philadelphia-based Signature Properties, told Bankrate in August.

☆ 2008-level home-price declines are coming for some areas, one of Wall Street's top housing advisors now says
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( James Rodriguez | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

John Burns Real Estate Consulting expects price drops of 20% or more for certain housing markets. Higher mortgage rates have wrecked demand for homes, but the firm says prices are still too high. Devyn Bachman, the senior vice president of research for John Burns, told Insider she had begun to expect "GFC-like pricing declines in certain markets." A survey conducted by John Burns last month found roughly 18% of homebuilders were already reporting year-over-year net home-price declines. "It's going to be a challenging one to two years for anyone involved in housing," Bachman said.

☆ The biggest dilemma for homeowners right now: Should I sell or rent my home in 2022?
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-08 | by ( James Rodriguez | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

More owners are now wrestling with the question of whether to sell their home or rent it out. Sellers in today's housing market face a nagging question: Should I just rent out my home instead? He told Insider he's now debating whether to sell or rent out his property. Some property managers are preparing for more homeowners to choose to rent out their homes rather than sell. "As we move into fall here, and more and more properties continue to hit the market, the market becomes weaker and weaker," Linnemann said.

☆ A major investor who owns 40,000 rental homes can't find enough new supply, so it'll manufacture its own out of factories in Sun Belt states like Texas and Florida
▼ + stars: | 2022-05-14 | by ( James Rodriguez | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The goal is for each of those factories to produce between 500 and 750 rental homes a year, Joe Butler, the head of Studio Built, told Insider. Modular homes meet the same standards of those built using traditional methods but are typically cheaper and faster to produce. Meanwhile, soaring mortgage rates have made homeownership more expensive, pushing more people into rental homes. Many of those people still want to live in single-family homes in good school districts, Nguyen said. "We believe that Studio Built is going to be a very long-term initiative that's going to be quite successful," Butler said.

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