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In 2013, the share of self-identified liberals among young women exceeded the share among young men by 5 percentage points; by 2023, that gap was nearly four times as large. (In that survey, young men were substantially more likely than young women to say they rely on YouTube as a major source of news.) (In the Harvard poll, one-fourth of young women identified in some way as LGBTQ, more than double the share of young men.) “He’s got to make up for the defection of young men by winning young women by more, and he’s got to get every young woman he can out to vote,” said Lake, the Democratic pollster. Biden’s best hope of avoiding a catastrophic decline in his youth support is that the number of young women Trump repels exceeds the number of young men he attracts.
Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Biden, John Burn, Murdoch, , Harvard University’s John F, Daniel Cox, William Frey, Melissa Deckman, Gen, , Trump, John Della Volpe, Joe Biden doesn’t, Della Volpe, White, Deckman, aren’t, Cox, Dobbs, Anna Dean, Dean, ” Della Volpe, he’s, don’t, ” Cox, “ Donald Trump, “ He’s Organizations: CNN, Trump, Biden, Pew Research Center, Financial, NBC, Democratic, Republican, GOP, Institute of Politics, Harvard University’s, Kennedy, Republican Party, Harvard, Democrats, Survey Center, American Enterprise Institute, Biden didn’t, Brookings Metro thinktank, Religion Research Institute, Biden’s, YouTube, Pew, AEI, Blacks, Harvard Poll, Biden won’t Locations: Gaza, New York, Bentonville , Arkansas, America
The Hong Kong and Beijing governments have repeatedly denied the national security law is suppressing freedoms, arguing it has ended chaos and “restored stability” to the city. Since the national security law came into effect in 2020, civil groups have disbanded, and independent media outlets have been shut down. They are the first defendants to be acquitted in a national security law trial in Hong Kong. But that strategy is in doubt after another local national security law enacted earlier this year curtailed access to reduced sentences for guilty pleas. “It’s absolutely clear that the national security law reduced the independence and the autonomy of the judiciary.
Persons: Hong Kong’s, Hong, Gwyneth Ho, Leung Kwok, , Lawrence Lau, Lee Yu, , , Joshua Wong, Benny Tai, Claudia Mo, Eric Lai, John Burns, Hong Kong Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Beijing, British, Hong, Hong Kong’s Legislative, Georgetown Center, Asian Law, Communist Party, city’s, University of Hong Locations: Hong Kong, Hong, Beijing, Hong Kong’s, China, University of Hong Kong
Rich baby boomers jumped in with all-cash offers, and sellers scored huge windfalls as weary buyers pushed prices to new heights. After all, people have to move for a wide variety of life reasons; mortgage rates be damned. "The further and further we get from the peak of the market," Peterson told me, "the harder it is to deny what's happened." Mortgage rates haven't fallen — in fact, they've gone up about 0.6 percentage points since the start of the year. "It can always be tricky telling somebody that they were just lucky because it makes you sound envious," Peterson told me.
Persons: Rich, Sellers, Eric Peterson, Peterson, Austin, Freddie, they've, Selma Hepp, Freddie Mac, Mike Simonsen, Redfin, towners, Libby Levinson, Katz, Price, Levinson, John Burns, they'll,, you'd Organizations: Freddie Mac, Reserve, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Altos Research, Sun, John, John Burns Research, Consulting Locations: Austin, Boise , Idaho, Denver
Rising interest rates have slammed the brakes on deals, and many real-estate companies have cut staff as revenues slowed. Founded in 2020 by real-estate executives Ryan Stroker and William Martiner, Avenue One was profitable by early 2021, company officials told Business Insider. AdvertisementAvenue One cofounder and CEO Ryan Stroker told BI in an interview how the company is navigating the difficult business environment. "I was told that I wasn't spending enough money six months before the layoffs," Stroker said. Layoffs and Big SpendingBoth Stroker and Avenue One's followup statement said the company is financially secure and described the layoffs as prudent rather than necessary.
Persons: It's, Ryan Stroker, William Martiner, Wall, Stroker, Martiner, John Burns, Ryan, Axel Springer Organizations: Service, KKR, Global, Business, MetLife, Wall, Amherst, John Burns Real Estate Consulting, BI Locations: Manhattan, Axel
Then, as the Federal Reserve began its battle against inflation in 2022, mortgage rates shot up, eventually hitting a 20-year high in October. Over the past decade, there's been a clear correlation between mortgage rates and inventory: When mortgage rates fall, the number of available homes for sale at a given moment shrinks. So, yes, waiting it out until mortgage rates decline sure seems appealing. The Federal Reserve has signaled that it plans to drop borrowing rates this year, which would likely push down mortgage rates. Advertisement"People are focusing on mortgage rates because every week they hear about mortgage rates changing," Doerner of the FHFA told me.
Persons: swiping, there's, Mike Simonsen, Freddie Mac, CoreLogic, , homebuyers, Redfin, John Burns, Alex Thomas, There's, Will Doerner, Doerner, They're, Simonsen, it's, Jerome Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Buyers, Altos Research, Bank of America, John, John Burns Research, Consulting, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Federal, Fed
Austinites are heading an hour away, to Killeen, according to real-estate consultancy John Burns. Orlando residents are decamping to Lakeland, Florida, trading nightlife for space, John Burns said. The Austin metropolitan area similarly grew 2.7% in 2021 and 2022, adding 63,000 people, according to the city of Austin. In 2021, 1,607 households moved from Orlando to Lakeland, while 250 households left Austin for Killeen, John Burns said in its analysis, published March 5. The primary reason is affordability, Austin real-estate agent Lisa Copeland told Business Insider.
Persons: John Burns, , Orlando, Redfin, Killeen, Austin, Lisa Copeland, Copeland, Jordan Prais, It's, Prais, Lakeland's, it's Organizations: Service, Orlando, Austin, John, John Burns Research, Consulting, Business, Lakeland, Florida Children's Museum, Army Locations: Killeen, Orlando, Lakeland , Florida, Austin, Killeen , Texas, Lakeland, Central Florida, Austinites, Texas, Fort Hood
Opinion: Why a booming economy isn’t helping Biden
  + stars: | 2024-03-24 | by ( Fareed Zakaria | )   time to read: +9 min
It used to be that the public’s view of the president depended mostly on its view of the economy. Democrats who had previously thought the economy was in terrible shape now thought it was booming, and Republicans did the opposite. I argue in the book that it is identity — which encompasses culture, class and tribalism. And when people see their world in flux, they often move not left on economics but right on culture. The left needs to play more effectively on the new crossroads of politics, where culture and class have replaced economics.
Persons: Fareed Zakaria, Fareed, Read, Joe Biden’s, haywire, It’s, Nate Cohn, Barack Obama’s, Donald Trump, , Trump, Ronald Inglehart, , Inglehart, John Burn, Organizations: CNN, Fareed’s, The New York Times, Immigration, Trump Locations: America, Sweden, Denmark, France, Austria, Germany, Japan, United States, Nigeria
This article is part of "Talent Insider," a series containing expert advice to help business owners tackle a variety of hiring challenges. And so what we look at for diversity, equity, and inclusion is to really help people understand the points of commonality. I think that's what makes us different. I think you can never effectively make change if you're only trying to communicate with someone from a digital-marketing campaign. I mean, we all know people have different experiences and different messaging and different types of insights ultimately inform their belief system.
Persons: Brothers John, Mike Burns, Tim Paradis, John, George Floyd, Burns, it's, we're, John Burns, we've, , I've, you've Organizations: Fortune, Burns Locations: Washington ,, Nairobi, Kenya, America, Washington, Alabama
The housing market, they claimed, was a bubble destined to burst. I’ve spent the past few years asking experts a simple question: Has the housing market reached bubble territory? AdvertisementFor a time, it seemed like the housing market was doing a speedrun through Simonsen’s checklist. And even if the economy does take a turn, a run-of-the-mill recession probably wouldn’t be enough to topple the housing market. The housing market is far from balanced, but we’re at least heading in that direction.
Persons: doomsayers, I’ve, Redfin, you’ve, you’ll, Mike Simonsen, megalandlords, , Ian Shepherdson, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell, Powell, Rick Palacios Jr, John Burns, ” doomsayers, might’ve, It’s, it’s, Logan Mohtashami, don’t, US homebuilders, “ It’s, ” Mohtashami, Selma Hepp, Fannie Mae, Palacios, ” Palacios, Mohtashami Organizations: Altos Research, Wall, John, John Burns Research, Consulting, Mortgage Bankers Association, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Federal Housing Finance Agency Locations: Charlotte, North Carolina, Austin, Las Vegas, Miami, Boise , Idaho, Dallas, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, US
lydia polgreenSure, but a few things — one thing that was elided in a lot of the discourse about men falling behind really, really, really under emphasized or just ignored the racial component of it. I just don’t — I don’t —ross douthatYeah, there were like five. That’s a really, really, really big shift. Are women going to pay a disproportionate price for childbearing in terms of their economic potential? But I think — Ross wrote a column about just how freaking weird the bizarre conspiracy theories about Taylor and Travis are.
Persons: ross douthat, polgreen, polgreen Oh, — ross douthat, Carlos Lozada, lydia polgreen I’m, Carlos Lazada, ross, michelle cottle, Lozada, lydia polgreen, Jimmy Carter, — ross, Jimmy Carter lusted, michelle cottle Oh, Jimmy, I’m Michelle Cottle, ross douthat I’m Ross Douthat, Lydia Polgreen, lydia polgreen Hoo, Carlos, Gen, topsy turvy, Ronald Reagan, Ross, Bill Clinton, Michelle, — michelle cottle, there’s, John Burn, Murdoch, Lydia, it’s, , Taylor Swift, I’m, It’s, Roe, Let’s, Let’s —, That’s, I’ve, Andrew Tates, who’s, you’re, We’re, Don’t, we’ve, ” I’m, Trump, — Trump, michelle cottle It’s, Brett Kavanaugh, they’re, let’s, don’t, he’s, ross douthat It’s, michelle cottle Let’s, michelle cottle That’s, couldn’t, Jesus, that’s, michelle cottle We’ve, Taylor, — michelle cottle Travis Kelce, lydia polgreen Travis, — Ross, Travis, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Rush Limbaugh’s feminazis, lydia polgreen Feminazis, michelle cottle There’s, michelle cottle You’re, michelle cottle I’ll, lydia polgreen —, we’re, — michelle cottle Partypalooza, sleepovers, — michelle cottle Ah, lydia polgreen Congrats Organizations: New York, Goldwater Republicans, Bill Clinton Democrats, Democrat, Republicans, Confederation, YouTube, Trump, Public Religion Research Institute, South Korea —, Pinterest Locations: American, US, Germany, United Kingdom, South Korea, Poland, Mars, United States, America, France, Korea, Northeast Asia, Africa, Mozambique, Saharan Africa, Europe, New York City, Manhattan
The popularity of ChatGPT has already led to lower earnings for some Upwork and Fiverr freelancers. AdvertisementLast year, a record 39% of the US workforce did freelance work , per the freelance platform Upwork. It's not just Upwork freelancers who are earning less. He said he's seen some freelancers' earnings fall from roughly $2,500 to $3,000 per month to around $1,000 today. Some freelancers have found work as AI content editors, which often involves editing, fact-checking, and giving a human touch to clients' AI-generated content.
Persons: ChatGPT, , he's, @xianghui90 @oren_reshef @Zhou_Yu_AI, kbtp8uDUPU, John Burn, Murdoch, Carl Benedikt Frey, Mark Muro, it's, Fiverr, Ben Baker, Baker Organizations: Service, Washington University, New York University, Brookings Institution Locations: St, Louis, Australia, @jburnmurdoch, Oxford
The Nashville building boom is in full effect, despite higher interest rates, higher home prices and a weaker national economy. During the Great Recession after the 2008 financial crisis, workers were looking for an urban vibe but with cheaper housing. While home prices nationally are up 47% from the start of the pandemic, Nashville prices are up 55%, according to ICE Mortgage Technology. "What we're seeing housing prices and rents go to is very foreign to what they would call affordable," said Eldridge. Gallagher has been working in Nashville's commercial real estate sector since moving to the city over a decade ago.
Persons: We've, John Eldridge, Eldridge, John Burns, CNBC he's, haven't, It's, Madison Cartularo, I've, Cartularo, Janelle Gallagher, Nashville . Gallagher, she's, that's, Gallagher, Bill Lee Organizations: Istock, Getty Images Nashville, E3 Construction, John Burns Research, Consulting, CNBC, Nashville, ICE Mortgage Technology, ICE, CBRE Locations: Nashville , Tennessee, Nashville, Los Angeles, Redfin, United States, New Yorker, Tennessee
Rising interest rates have slammed the breaks on America's housing market, with home sales down 15.4% year-over-year in September, according to the National Association of Realtors. By controlling the financing, they can offer yesterday's mortgage rates, saving customers tens of thousands of dollars and moving inventory in the process. Tawn Kelley, president of financial services at homebuilder Taylor Morrison, told Insider that financing is an essential part of the home-selling puzzle. Then, there are forward commitments, another way to prepay interest rates that allows a homebuilder to pay down more of it. There are also float downs, which allow purchasers who lock in a mortgage price to reduce their interest rates if mortgage rates get smaller over the course of their mortgage lock.
Persons: Tawn Kelley, homebuilder Taylor Morrison, Kelley, Taylor Morrison, Devyn Bachman, John Burns, Taylor Morrison's, it's, they've, homebuyers, Kurt Carlton Organizations: National Association of Realtors, Census, Finance Locations: homebuying, homebuilding
"At the current 8% mortgage rate, mortgage payment[s] are 38% of median income," Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi said. The National Association of Realtors measures affordability through its 34-year old Housing Affordability Index, or HAI. And even if home prices do the decline, that trend won't be sustainable unless America builds millions of more homes. And spreads will likely remain extra-wide until short-term interest rates drop below the rates on longer-term treasuries, Duncan said. "Mortgage rates will not go back to 3% – we'll be lucky if we get back to 5," Yun said.
Persons: , John Burns, maven Mohamed El, Lawrence Yun, Yun, Mark Zandi, That's, Doug Duncan, Fannie, Duncan, Daryl Fairweather, They've, Fairweather, they've, Freddie Mac, , Zandi, it's Organizations: Nurphoto, Getty, National Association of Realtors, John Burns Real Estate Consulting, NAR, Redfin, Allianz, America, Federal Reserve, realtors, Builders, Fed Locations: Florida, Austin , Texas, Boise , Idaho, Fannie Mae, America, New York, California, Phoenix, Tampa, Louisville, Indianapolis, Chicago
With interest rates rising and mortgage costs with them, homebuilders are pulling in yards, tightening living rooms and lopping off bedrooms in an attempt to keep the monthly payment in line with what families can afford. In a recent survey of architects, John Burns Research and Consulting found that about half expected their average house size to decline. New communities will have more duplexes or small-lot single-family homes that are just a few feet apart. Even in Texas, where land is abundant, builders are adding more homes per acre, the company found. “The monthly payment matters more than anything else and builders have responded with smaller, more efficient homes,” said John Burns, the company’s chief executive.
Persons: John Burns, , Hayden Organizations: John Burns Research, Consulting Locations: Texas, Pacific Northwest, exurbs
The state's population growth has helped its economy thrive. Plenty of Americans have moved to Texas in recent years, but the state's population growth has also been driven by another factor — native-born residents aren't leaving. It's helping fuel an economic boom at a time when many businesses are struggling to attract workers . Texas has no state income tax , and major cities like Dallas and Austin provide residents plenty of places to pursue job opportunities. But the state's population trends should position it well in the long term.
Persons: Texans aren't, Jobs, John Burns Organizations: Texans, Service, Dallas Fed, Lone Star State, John Burns Research, Consulting, Federal Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon, Texas, California, Plenty, North Carolina, Canada, Dallas, Austin, Houston, San Antonio, Fort Worth
John Burns Research and Consulting recently published a list of cities and their migration trends. But looking at the demand side of the equation via population trends can give you an idea of where people increasingly desire to live or leave. In a late-August note, Chris Porter and John Burns of John Burns Research and Consulting published a list of cities where they see migration trends rising and falling, citing address change data from the US Postal Service. "We now monitor domestic migration trends in near real time, using postal address change forms that are current within a few months. In the note, they separated the cities into tiers where migration trends are changing most and only slightly.
Persons: John Burns, Chris Porter, Porter, Burns Organizations: John Burns Research, Consulting, Boston, US Postal Service Locations: Denver, Nashville, San Diego
Lumber prices staged a 3-day rally of 10% despite continued headwinds in the housing market. The average 30-year mortgage rate closed in on 6% this week, hitting its highest level since 2008. The gains come despite continued headwinds in the housing market, particularly a surge in mortgage rates. Another builder in Harrisburg said it saw a big uptick in buying activity when mortgage rates briefly dipped in early August to 5%, signaling how strongly correlated mortgage rates are to home sales. There has been little lag between mortgage rates and a hike in the Federal Funds Rate, as has been seen when the Fed first began raising rates in March, precisely when mortgage rates also began to soar.
Persons: Homebuilders, doesn't bode, Freddie Mac, John Burns, Austin Organizations: Service, John Burns Real Estate Consulting, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon, Tampa, Harrisburg, Philadelphia
Higher interest rates created a 'golden handcuff' effectSince it's unlikely rates will drop anytime soon, this has created a so-called golden handcuff effect. Similar to the financial incentives employers may offer to discourage employees from leaving a company, homeowners are now bound by their low mortgage rate. They don't want to move now and give up that low rate to buy at a higher rate. Between 1978 and 1981, mortgage rates similarly doubled from around 9% to more than 18%, compelling more homeowners to hold on to their homes. However, "mortgage rates weren't at record lows in the late 70s before they started to skyrocket in the early 80s, nor did home prices increase as rapidly," Channel said.
Persons: Nicole Bachaud, Bachaud, John Burns, Tomas Philipson, Bob, Terri Wood, Bob Wood Bob Wood, Terri, It's, Wood, he'd, Greg McBride, Jacob Channel Organizations: Finance, John Burns Research & Consulting, University of Chicago, White House Council, Economic Advisers, CNBC Locations: Mobile , Alabama, Tennessee, LendingTree
Yet, the cost per square foot has markedly accelerated over the same period, data from John Burns Research and Consulting shows. We saw increased prices across the board, and that's showing up in that increased price per square foot." Not only are prices per square foot going up, data suggests that contractors are less likely to build homes with a lower price per square foot. AdvertisementAdvertisementFurther double-digit jumps in price per square foot are less likely to materialize in the current environment. But as floor plans get smaller, price per square foot could stay stubbornly high.
Persons: John Burns, That's, Chris Porter, demographer, Porter, Redfin Organizations: Census, John, John Burns Research, Consulting, Builders, Service, Homeowners, Wall Street Journal Locations: Wall, Silicon, Indiana, Zillow
The last, best hope for homebuyers
  + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( James Rodriguez | )   time to read: +12 min
But there may be one last hope for salvation for these hard-pressed homebuyers: brand-spanking new houses. Many builders are even dangling perks like cheaper loans or other discounts to ease the pain of higher mortgage rates. Homebuilding is typically a cyclical industry, following the ups and downs of the broader housing market. Of course, people will always move for reasons that have nothing to do with mortgage rates. Even if buyers get some relief from new housing construction, builders are still a long way off from bridging the housing shortfall.
Persons: Richard de Chazal, William Blair, de Chazal,, bottoming, John Burns, Black Knight, Mike Simonsen, Simonsen, bode, it's, Sheryl Palmer, Taylor Morrison, Palmer, Cristian deRitis, Jay Parsons, Matthew Walsh, Walsh, Freddie Mac, Lawrence Yun, They're, production's, James Rodriguez Organizations: Federal Reserve, National Association of Realtors, John Burns Research, Consulting, Altos Research, National Association of Homebuilders, Builders, Moody's
Arizona will halt approvals of new developments that don't plan for alternate water sources. The new rule applies to the Phoenix area, whose population just topped 5 million in 2022. The state is also under federal pressure to use less water from the Colorado River. But regulators won't be approving new developments in areas around Phoenix that depend solely on groundwater supplies. Hobbs said a study of the project showed that it will require water sources other than groundwater.
Persons: Katie Hobbs, Hobbs, Phoenix, John Burns Organizations: Service, Los Angeles Times, Democrat, LA Times, Developers, Census, John Burns Real Estate Consulting, Gov Locations: Arizona, Phoenix, Colorado, Arizona , California, Nevada, Chandler, Houston, John Burns Real Estate Consulting . Arizona
For the first two or so years of the pandemic, it looked like big, corporate landlords would buy up so many rental homes that they'd soon control the market that had been the purview of mom-and-pop owners. But five months in, the lull that started the year persists, said analysts at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, a purveyor of real-estate data. According to JT Graham, a John Burns analyst who attended an April conference of the SFR lobbying group National Home Rental Council, the buzzword there was "patience." For those that do make the trip, they can console themselves that the industry's fundamentals are strong enough to offset headwinds such as soaring taxes and slowing rent growth, John Burns analysts said. They're also able to absorb defaults and vacancies in the way small landlords can't as their costs increase.
Commercial property headwinds aside, today we're looking at the residential housing market, which is undergoing its own shifts, but not exactly in the same direction. Tell someone that the housing market is so unfavorable right now that the biggest home buyers in the country are actually net sellers now. American Homes 4 Rent, for example, bought 312 single-family homes and sold 666 to start the year. Similarly, Invitation Homes, the largest owner of single-family rentals in the US, bought 194 homes and sold 297 in the first quarter of 2o23. Naturally, the housing market has slowed down for everyday Americans, too, given the steep mortgage rates and lack of affordability.
Institutional investors bought 90% fewer homes in the first two months of 2023 compared to a year ago. High rates and home prices have turned some big buyers into net sellers this year. That trend accelerated from the fourth quarter, when institutional home-buying activity slumped 79% from a year ago, according to Fortune. Among the institutional investors, American Homes 4 Rent was a net seller of homes in the first quarter, buying 312 single-family homes and shedding 666, per Fortune. Similarly, Invitation Homes — the largest owner of single-family rentals in the US — was a net seller in the first quarter.
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