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download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Discovery's TNT is dangerously close to being left out of the NBA's next TV deal after rival NBC made a massive offer, according to a recent report from The Wall Street Journal. A source familiar with the negotiations told Business Insider that a deal hasn't been finalized and offers are always changing. Still, it's not clear that paying an average of $2.5 billion a year for NBA rights will be profitable. AdvertisementJoe Bonner, a media analyst at Argus Research, has been under the assumption that WBD can and will retain NBA rights even though its cable-TV revenue is steadily shrinking.
Persons: , hasn't, NBA hasn't, Craig Moffett, Peacock, Moffett, it's, Joe Bonner, Bonner Organizations: Service, Warner Bros, TNT, NBC, Wall Street Journal, Business, NBA, ESPN, Amazon, Puck, Comcast, Argus Research
"Netflix won the streaming wars in 2009 when they started streaming," said Tim Nollen, a media analyst at Macquarie. "I think it's a little bit ridiculous, to be honest," Bazinet said when asked if Netflix has won the streaming wars. AdvertisementHow Hollywood can beat Netflix at its own gameHollywood stalwarts can compete in streaming, Bazinet argued — provided the media industry first consolidates even further. The two biggest threats right now are Disney — which has about 220 million subscribers across Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+ — and Amazon. Nollen said Amazon would flood the market with cheap ads and crush its competition like it did in e-commerce.
Persons: , That's, Jason Bazinet, Tim Nollen, They've, Bazinet, overreacted, Jessica Reif Ehrlich, Reif Ehrlich, Nielsen Bazinet, Joe Bonner, Bonner, John Hodulik, Hodulik, I'm, Macquarie's, Nollen, it's Organizations: Service, Netflix, Business, Citigroup, Disney, Paramount, Macquarie, Hollywood, Bank of America, Nielsen, ESPN, Argus Research, Hulu, UBS, Amazon Locations: Hulu
But that plan carries serious risk, as it would jeopardize still-sizable cable revenue without guaranteeing that enough sports fans would support such a product. Several other analysts — including Barton Crockett of Rosenblatt Securities, who has a buy rating for Disney shares — seconded those concerns about cannibalizing cable revenue. Nollen estimated 35 million current cable customers would switch to ESPN DTC. ESPN DTC is zero incremental cost and potentially billions in incremental revenue." An ESPN streamer (in light purple) would gradually drive revenue for Disney, Wells Fargo predicts.
Persons: Disney, that's, Jalen Rose, Todd McShay, Bob Iger, Macquarie's Tim Nollen, Nollen, Barton Crockett, , Crockett, who'd, Will, you've, they'll, William Cohan, Cohan, Joe Bonner, Bonner, Brandon Nispel, Iger, Nispel, We've, Jason Bazinet, Bazinet, Hulu —, Wells Fargo's Steven Cahall, Cahall, Wells Organizations: ESPN, Disney, Bank of America, NBA, Sports, ESPN Disney's ESPN, Rosenblatt Securities, ESPN DTC, Will Disney, Citigroup, NFL, NBC, Apple, Comcast, NBC Sports, Netflix Netflix, Hearst, Argus Research, Netflix, KeyBanc, Hulu, DIS, Wells Fargo Sports Locations: Wells Fargo, it's, Wells, Hulu, Puck
Disney CEO Bob Iger must decide whether to acquire all of Hulu and fold it into Disney+. By buying all of Hulu, Disney could integrate its content into Disney+, which would make the flagship Disney streamer a formidable challenger to Netflix. "You look at the Disney+ bundle with Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+, and it's a pretty powerful combination," Nispel told Insider. Currently, the ad versions of Hulu and Disney+ each cost $8 per month while ad-free Hulu and Disney+ cost $15 and $11, respectively. The consensus among analysts about Disney's Hulu dilemma was neatly summarized by Barton Crockett of Rosenblatt Securities, whose price target implies 26% upside for Disney.
Persons: Bob Iger, Iger, that's, Joe Bonner, Brandon Nispel, Nispel, Disney's, Wells, Steven Cahall, Cahall, Hulu, Michael Morris, He's, Morris, Disney, Will Iger, Barton Crockett, Crockett Organizations: Disney, Hulu, Comcast, Netflix, Wall, Argus Research, KeyBanc, ESPN, TAM, Rosenblatt Securities Locations: Hulu
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