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AdvertisementUS home prices and rents have soared in part because of a shortage of housing. These are the cost of land, a shortage of construction workers, regulations, and NIMBYism. The US is suffering from a deep shortage of homes, and it's driving sky-high home prices and rents. Advertisement"We just hear more and more that it's harder to find affordable pieces of land to develop for housing," Tobin said. Fewer construction workers means less — and slower — residential construction and higher wages for workers, which in turn leads to higher home prices.
Persons: Jim Tobin, Tobin, , ANDREW CABALLERO, REYNOLDS, NIMBY, Donald Trump Organizations: National Association of Home Builders, Trump Locations: Los Angeles, Seattle, Chicago, Brambleton , Virginia
Trump has said that undocumented immigrants share the blame for America’s once-in-a-generation home affordability crisis, but the president-elect’s deportation plans may backfire, driving up the cost of homebuying even further. There is a need for more construction workers, as well: There were 282,000 construction jobs open as of September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Immigrant labor is really important for our ability to continue to build homes affordably,” said Tobin. More than one-third of construction workers in the labor force are foreign-born, according to the US Census Bureau’s 2023 American Community Survey. In some states, that share is much higher: In California, New Jersey and Texas, more than half of construction workers are immigrants.
Persons: CNN — Duewight Garcia overstayed, Garcia, ” Garcia, Donald Trump’s, Trump, America’s, Riordan Frost, Frost, ” Frost, Jim Tobin, , Tobin, , Duewight Garcia, Edward Pinto, ” Pinto, Stan Marek, MAREK, it’s, ” Marek, Trump’s, Ohio Sen, JD Vance, ” Vance, Marek, they’re, Jennie Murray, ” CNN’s Tami Luhby Organizations: CNN, New, Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, National Association of Home Builders, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Pew Research, Survey, American, National Immigration Forum, Trump, Housing Center, American Enterprise Institute, Labor, The New York Times, National Immigration Locations: Honduras, New York City, America, California , New Jersey, Texas, New York, California, Wells Fargo, Houston
AdvertisementHigh housing costs, driven in large part by a shortage of homes, are keeping inflation sticky. Economists say Trump's proposals are a mixed bag; some could help housing costs and some could hurt. Ultimately, housing policy experts and industry leaders say housing costs will largely depend on how much new supply can be delivered to the market, which is suffering from a severe shortage of homes. Federal housing assistanceDuring his first term, Trump repeatedly proposed major cuts to housing assistance for households with low incomes or members with disabilities. This would make it harder for lower-income Americans to afford homes and slow down affordable housing construction.
Persons: Trump, Donald Trump, Karoline Leavitt, Vance, Jim Tobin, Tobin, Maurice Page, JD Vance, they're, Anirban Basu, Biden, Ben Metcalf, Metcalf Organizations: Federal Reserve, Trump, National Association of Home Builders, Biden, Administration, Nevada Housing Coalition, Business, Energy, Associated Builders and Contractors, Economic, of New, Reserve, UC Berkeley, Immigrants, Republican Locations: Nevada , Arizona, Utah, of New York, China
Homebuilders and economists have said a deeper labor shortage could cause housing costs to spike. The issue is the construction labor force, whose 500,000-worker shortage is already making conditions more challenging. Related Video Musk visits border, calls for Trump-style wallForeign-born workers make up about a quarter of the construction workforce. They argue that the surge in home costs is largely a result of the nationwide housing shortage, and immigrants are a key part of building housing. AdvertisementDuring the pandemic, many older, experienced workers retired, and the pipeline of younger US-born workers isn't sufficient, homebuilders say.
Persons: Homebuilding execs, Donald Trump's, , Eric Finnigan, John Burns, Ben Metcalf, Jim Tobin, JD Vance, Trump, Vance, Barack Obama, Obama, Joe Biden, Tom Homan, Chad Blocker, Homebuilders, Dennis Webb Organizations: Service, Trump, University of California, National Association of Home Builders, Immigration, Biden Locations: Berkeley, Los Angeles, Phoenix
President-elect Donald Trump wants to address housing affordability in the U.S. by fomenting the construction of new homes. "We're going to open up tracks of federal land for housing construction," Trump said during an Aug. 15 news conference. While building more homes is the simpler answer to address the housing issue in the country, other promises Trump has made could deter affordability efforts, experts say. He also claimed that he would pull down mortgage rates back to pandemic-era lows, although presidents do not control mortgage rates, experts say. Here's how some of Trump's policies could affect the housing market during his administration, according to experts:
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Jim Tobin, it's, Jacob Channel Organizations: National Association of Realtors, National Association of Home Builders, Finance, Federal Reserve, Social Security, LendingTree Locations: U.S
To lower housing costs, Trump has said he would allow homes to be built on federally protected land, something that could help increase the supply of homes in places like Nevada and Arizona. TaxesTrump has proposed a number of tax cuts, including a complete elimination of the federal income tax. Those cuts lowered the corporate tax rate to 21% from 35%, reduced individual income tax rates, and increased the standard deduction. That could create havoc for workers and consumers and reduce the amount of income taxes the federal government brings in. About 40% of Social Security recipients pay federal income taxes, typically because they have other sources of income that raise them above a certain threshold where they are required to pay income tax, according to the Social Security Administration.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, , ” Trump, , Decker, Matt Priest, , Priest, It’s, He’s, hasn’t, Immigration Trump, Jim Tobin, Trump’s Organizations: Trump, Chicago Economic, Companies, National Bureau of Economic Research, Footwear Distributors, Retailers, U.S, Federal Reserve, Immigration, Business, Pew Research Center, NBC News, National Association of Home Builders, NBC, University of New, University of Pennsylvania, Social Security, Social, Social Security Administration Locations: U.S, China, Nevada, Arizona, Alaska, Saudi Arabia, Russia, University of New Hampshire
Related storiesA 2022 George W. Bush Institute study found that US metros with the highest immigrant population growth scored the lowest construction costs. Without the supply of these workers, history suggests housing costs are likely to rise. These could be significant, given that the construction industry would be competing against other immigrant-dependent sectors. Trump's campaign has implied that cracking down on immigration will help ease housing unaffordability by effectively removing one source of demand. Meanwhile, Trump's platform is also pushing another policy initiative that's unlikely to help housing costs: tariffs.
Persons: Donald Trump, , Donald Trump's, doesn't bode, Jim Tobin, Tobin, George W, JD Vance Organizations: Service, Republican, National Association of Home Builders, Home Builders Institute, Bush, SC, Congressional
“Losing the workers would devastate our companies, our industry and our economy.”‘The math is just not there’There is evidence that foreign-born construction workers help keep the housing market in check. “Immigrant construction workers in Sun Belt metros like Raleigh, Nashville, Houston, and San Antonio have helped these cities sustain their housing cost advantage over coastal cities despite rapid growth in housing demand,” the authors wrote. Undocumented workers would likely flee ahead of any national deportation effort, Hetrick said, even though many have been in the U.S. for well over a decade. Past as prologueLast year, the state’s Republican governor, Ron DeSantis, enacted a series of restrictions and penalties to deter the employment of undocumented workers. Many immigrant workers hastily left the state even before the policies took effect, with social media videos showing some construction sites sitting empty.
Persons: Trump, You’d, couldn’t, Stan Marek, Marek, “ You’d, ” Bryan Dunn, , , Trump’s, ” Taylor Rogers, Karoline Leavitt, ” Tobin, Jim Tobin, ” Marek, George W, Bob Croslin, Ron Hetrick, Hetrick, Ron DeSantis, Luciano, Taylor, Rick Roth, weren’t, Dunn, ” Dunn, he’s “, Kamala Harris, ” Taylor Organizations: Republican, Trump, Companies, Big, Republican National, National Association of Home Builders, Bush Institute and Southern Methodist University, U.S, Sun, NBC, Workers, NBC News Republican Locations: Texas, an, Arizona, Southwest, Greenland, Aurora , Colorado, U.S, Raleigh, Nashville, Houston, San Antonio, Tampa, Fla, Florida, Mexico, South Florida, Tempe, “ Arizona
"It would be detrimental to the construction industry and our labor supply and exacerbate our housing affordability problems," said Jim Tobin, CEO of the National Association of Home Builders. Brent Taylor President of Taylor Construction Group, Tampa, Fla.Nearly 11 million undocumented immigrants were living in the U.S. as of 2022, the latest federal data shows, down from an 11.8 million peak in 2007. The labor pool is tight already, with the U.S. construction industry still looking to fill 370,000 open positions, according to federal data. 'The math is just not there'There is evidence that foreign-born construction workers help keep the housing market in check. Undocumented workers would likely flee ahead of any national deportation effort, Hetrick said, even though many have been in the U.S. for well over a decade.
Persons: Mike Blake, Donald Trump's, Jim Tobin, Brent Taylor, Taylor, couldn’t, Stan Marek, Marek, Tobin, George W, Ron Hetrick, Hetrick Organizations: Reuters, National Association of Home Builders, Taylor Construction Group, Pew Research Center, NBC News . Industry, Sun, Companies, Bush Institute and Southern Methodist University, U.S Locations: Menifee , California, Tampa, Fla, U.S, Florida, Texas, Raleigh, Nashville, Houston, San Antonio
Read previewNew-home sales rebounded in December, rising 8% as homebuyers rushed to take advantage of falling mortgage rates, US Census Bureau data shows. But while consumers appear eager to re-engage with the housing market, new purchases don't mean an immediate move-in for some. This decline from 8% peak levels in October was spurred by bets that the Federal Reserve would start cutting interest rates. Of that, new homes took on a bigger share of the inventory, as high mortgage rates kept homeowners from selling. Still, NAHB's CEO Jim Tobin separately expects construction and demand to take off in 2024, once consumers realize ultra-low mortgage rates aren't coming back.
Persons: , homebuyers, Skillington, Jim Tobin Organizations: Service, Business, Federal Reserve, National Association of Homebuilders
Read previewThe housing market is about to exit its slowdown and take off in a new growth period, according to National Association of Home Builders CEO Jim Tobin. AdvertisementThat's partly because mortgage rates have continued their steady decline in recent months. At the same time, prospective buyers are likely warming up to the new norm of 6% mortgage rates, and could be readying themselves to jump back into the housing market, he said. "I think that the world is getting ready to realize that we're no longer going back to those 3%-4% mortgage rates. Improving affordability conditions could cause home sales to jump 5% while home prices decline 1% in 2024, according to Redfin.
Persons: , Jim Tobin, Tobin, Freddie Mac Organizations: Service, National Association of Home Builders, Business, Yahoo Finance, Mortgage, Association . Housing
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