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☆ Fed Chair Powell Signals ‘Time Has Come’ for September Rate Cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

Speaking in his most closely watched speech of the year, Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, clearly signaled that the central bank was poised to cut interest rates in September. And while Mr. Powell stopped short of giving a clear hint at just how large that move might be, he forcefully underscored that the central bank stands prepared to adjust policy to protect the job market from weakening further and to keep the economy on a path for a soft landing. “The time has come for policy to adjust,” Mr. Powell said during the Kansas City Fed’s annual conference at Jackson Hole in Wyoming. “The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”He then added: “We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability.”

Persons: Jerome H, Powell, Mr Organizations: Federal Reserve, Kansas City, Jackson Locations: Kansas, Wyoming

☆ Why Jay Powell refuses to be bullied by Wall Street
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-08 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

The whole episode underscored a fundamental tension between the Fed, which is focused on economic stability, and Wall Street, which is focused on profit. The message from Powell and other policymakers is clear: We won’t be strong-armed by Wall Street. The BOJ’s deputy governor, Shinichi Uchida, citing volatility in financial markets, said the bank would not raise its policy interest rate as long as markets remain unstable. Powell (formerly in finance, hazel eyes, great ties) appears to have a real opportunity to Volcker it up even more in the coming weeks. That gives Wall Street plenty of time to sit in the corner and deal with its feelings.

Persons: CNN Business ’, Summer, Tim Walz’s, Jerome Hayden Powell, Here’s, Powell, ”, Powell’s, It’s, Paul Volcker fanboy, Shinichi Uchida, Mohamed El, “, Volcker, quieting, Powell isn’t Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Finance, Federal, Stock, CNBC, Wall, Bank of Japan, Bloomberg Locations: New York, FiDi, Powell, Japan

For now, Fed officials think the ongoing slowdown in hiring and a recent tick up in joblessness suggest the labor market is returning to normal after a few years of booming hiring. But while that approach is cautious when it comes to price increases, it could prove to be risky when it comes to the labor market. But that chain reaction can come at a serious cost to the job market. For now, Fed officials think that the ongoing slowdown in hiring and a recent tick up in joblessness signal that labor market conditions are returning to normal after a few years of booming hiring. Fed rate moves take time to work, so if the central bank only starts to cut borrowing costs when the job market is showing serious signs of strain, it could be moving too late.

Persons: ” Jerome H, Powell, Mr, Neil Dutta, ” Mr, “, ” Organizations: Federal Reserve, Macro Locations: joblessness, “

☆ What to Watch as the Fed Meets on Wednesday
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-31 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Economists and traders widely expect Fed officials to cut their policy rate at their next meeting, in September. Wall Street will closely watch for any hints about the future in both the Fed’s statement at 2 p.m. and a subsequent news conference with Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the central bank. And Mr. Powell is sure to face questions about how officials are thinking about the potential for moves after that. Watch the Fed’s statement for changes. The Fed’s statement, a slowly changing document that officials release after each two-day meeting, currently states that Fed policymakers expect to hold rates steady until they have “gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably” down.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Federal

☆ Fed’s Powell Welcomes Cooler Inflation but Steers Clear of Rate Cut Timing
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-15 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, avoided sending a clear signal about when the central bank would begin to cut interest rates even as he welcomed a recent cool-down in inflation. “Today I’m not going to be sending any signals one way or the other on any particular meeting,” Mr. Powell said while speaking at the Economic Club of Washington on Monday. “Just to ruin the fun right at the beginning.”The Fed’s chair was speaking after several inflation reports in a row suggested that price increases were moderating in earnest, a development that had spurred some economists to think that it could make sense for officials to cut interest rates sooner rather than later. The Fed meets at the end of July and then again in September, and investors have been largely expecting that officials will begin to lower borrowing costs at the September meeting. Economists at Goldman Sachs wrote in a research note on Monday that cutting rates this month could be appropriate, given how much inflation had come down.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell, I’m, ” Mr, “, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Federal Reserve, Economic, of Washington, Fed, Goldman

☆ Live Updates: Inflation Likely Cooled Further in June
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

Overall inflation was probably 3.1 percent in June on an annual basis, down from 3.3 percent in May and the coolest reading since January, based on Bloomberg economist forecasts. Economists forecast just 0.2 percent core inflation on a monthly basis, which would match the reading for May. Fed officials have been watching for evidence that inflation is still coming down as they contemplate when to begin cutting interest rates. And Thursday’s inflation reading is poised to be markedly cooler than the 9.1 percent rate when inflation peaked at in 2022. Fed officials meet in late July, but few economists expect a move that early.

Persons: ” Jerome H, Powell, that’s, “, ” Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Fed

☆ Live Updates: Inflation Cooled Further in June
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | Danielle Kaye | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

On a monthly basis, prices fell overall, and the core price index was up just 0.1 percent. Fed officials have been watching for signs that inflation is still coming down as they contemplate when to begin cutting interest rates. And Thursday’s inflation reading is poised to be markedly cooler than the 9.1 percent rate when inflation peaked at in 2022. Fed officials meet in late July, but few economists expect a move that early. Fed policymakers officially target 2 percent annual inflation, and they define that goal using the Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation measure, which is related to Thursday’s Consumer Price Index but released later in the month.

Persons: ” Jerome H, Powell, that’s Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Fed

☆ Powell Welcomes Cooling Inflation but Wants ‘More Good Data’ Before Rate Cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-09 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, indicated on Tuesday that recent inflation data had given the central bank more confidence that price increases were returning to normal, and that continued progress along these lines would help to pave the way toward a central bank rate cut. “The Committee has stated that we do not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate until we have gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent,” Mr. Powell said. He added that data earlier this year failed to provide such confidence, but that recent inflation readings “have shown some modest further progress, and more good data would strengthen our confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.”Mr. Powell delivered the remarks on Tuesday in an appearance before the Senate Banking Committee. While Mr. Powell avoided zeroing in on a specific month for when the Fed might begin to cut interest rates, he also did little to push back on growing expectations that a reduction could come in September. Fed officials meet in late July, but few economists expect a move that early.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell, Mr, zeroing Organizations: Federal Reserve, Committee, Fed

☆ Fed Officials Keep an Eye Out for Cracks in the Job Market
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-05 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | More About Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

“We’d also like to see the labor market remain strong. For years, the Fed had been watching the job market for a different reason. Officials had worried that if conditions in the labor market remained too tight for too long, with employers fighting to hire and paying ever-rising wages to attract workers, it could help keep inflation faster than usual. But recently, job openings have come down and wage growth has abated, signals that the job market is cooling from its boil. “Future labor market slowing could translate into higher unemployment, as firms need to adjust not just vacancies but actual jobs.”

Persons: Jerome H, Powell, “ We’d, We’ve, Mary C, Daly, ” Organizations: Wall Street, Federal Reserve Bank of San Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

☆ Live Updates: U.S. Jobs Report Expected to Show Slower Pace of Hiring
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-05 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

PinnedThe monthly employment report on Friday is projected to show that employers added 190,000 jobs in June, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. That would be a downshift from the 272,000 jobs added in May. The economy remains solid overall, with unemployment still low, the stock market hovering at new highs and wage growth outpacing inflation. But many economists say the labor market is in a sensitive place. Interest rates, which the Federal Reserve has driven significantly higher since 2022, have remained elevated longer than many businesses had hoped.

Persons: —, Jerome H, Powell, Nancy Vanden Houten Organizations: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Fed, Oxford Locations: U.S

☆ Powell Cites ‘Real Progress’ as Central Bankers Assess Inflation Fight
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-02 | by ( Eshe Nelson | Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Inflation “now shows signs of resuming its disinflationary trend,” Mr. Powell said on Tuesday at the European Central Bank’s annual conference in Sintra, Portugal. It was an optimistic message after the Fed’s fight against inflation hit a speed bump earlier this year. Fed officials have been waiting to see further progress on inflation before they begin to lower interest rates, which are currently set to their highest level in decades, at 5.3 percent. Mr. Powell declined to say exactly when officials could begin to cut borrowing costs, but suggested that they could lower rates if inflation data continued on its current track or if the labor market weakened. “What we’d like to see is more data like what we’ve been seeing recently,” Mr. Powell said, later adding, “We have the ability to take our time and get this right.”

Persons: Jerome H, Powell, Mr, ” Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Central Locations: United States, Sintra , Portugal

Coming into and through 2019, the economy was strong and the Consumer Price Index, a key measure of inflation, was low. For some, that seemed like a bad thing — economists worried that chronically low inflation could increase the risk of future economic stagnation. The Personal Consumption Expenditures index, a slightly delayed price measure that the Fed uses for its 2 percent inflation target, similarly fell. Within a few months, inflation began to pick up. Price jumps began to moderate even in service categories, which made economists hope that the deceleration might be the real deal.

Persons: —, Biden, Donald J, Trump, Price, ” Jerome H, Powell, ” Mr Organizations: Fed, Consumer, Federal Locations: Covid, Ukraine, blowups

☆ The Fed Holds Rates Steady and Predicts Just One Reduction This Year
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-12 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

Federal Reserve officials left interest rates unchanged at their June meeting on Wednesday and predicted that they will cut borrowing costs just once before the end of 2024, taking a cautious approach as they try to avoid declaring a premature victory over inflation. While the Fed had been expected to leave rates unchanged, its projections for how interest rates may evolve surprised many economists. When Fed officials last released quarterly economic estimates in March, they anticipated cutting interest rates three times this year. Investors had expected them to revise that outlook somewhat this time, in light of stubborn inflation early in 2024, but the shift to a single cut was more drastic. Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, made clear in a postmeeting news conference that officials were taking a careful and conservative approach after months of bumpy inflation data.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Investors

☆ What Trump 2.0 Could Mean for the Federal Reserve
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-23 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Former President Donald J. Trump relentlessly criticized the Federal Reserve and Jerome H. Powell, its chair, during his time in office. As he competes with President Biden for a second presidential term, that history has many on Wall Street wondering: What would a Trump victory mean for America’s central bank? The Trump campaign does not have detailed plans for the Fed yet, several people in its orbit said, but outside advisers have been more focused on the central bank and have been making suggestions — some minor, others extreme. Curbing the central bank’s ability to set interest rates without direct White House influence would be legally and politically tricky, and tinkering with the Fed so overtly could roil the very stock markets that Mr. Trump has frequently used as a yardstick for his success. But other aspects of Fed policy could end up squarely in Mr. Trump’s sights, both former administration officials and conservative policy thinkers have indicated.

Persons: Donald J, Trump, Jerome H, Powell, Biden Organizations: Federal Reserve, White

☆ Live Updates: Inflation Cooled Slightly, Offering Some Relief for Consumers and the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +6 min

But economists cautioned that one month of encouraging data was far from enough to set those worries to rest. Both overall and core prices rose 0.3 percent from the previous month, down from 0.4 percent in February and March. The encouraging inflation report on Wednesday is unlikely to change those expectations. The report is also likely to be met with relief at the White House after what has been a rough recent run of inflation data for President Biden. Gasoline prices rose a seasonally adjusted 2.8 percent in April from March.

Persons: “, ”, Stephen Stanley, there’s, Sarah House, Biden, Jerome H, Powell, we’re, Blerina Uruci, Rowe Price, Jeanna Smialek, Jim Tankersley Organizations: Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Santander, White, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Fed Locations: Wells Fargo, Amsterdam, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

☆ Fed Chair’s Confidence in Slowing Inflation Is ‘Not as High’ as Before
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, reiterated that policymakers were poised to hold interest rates steady at a high level as they waited for evidence that inflation is slowing further. Fed officials entered 2024 expecting to make interest rate cuts, having lifted borrowing costs sharply to a more than two-decade high of 5.3 percent between 2022 and the middle of last year. Speaking during a panel discussion in Amsterdam, Mr. Powell said that officials had been surprised by recent inflation readings. The Consumer Price Index inflation measure, which is set for release on Wednesday, came down rapidly in 2023 but has gotten stuck above 3 percent this year. The Fed’s preferred measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, is slightly cooler, but it, too, remains well above the Fed’s 2 percent inflation goal.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Mr Locations: Amsterdam

☆ Why Higher Fed Rates Are Not Totally Off the Table
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-09 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Investors do not expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again, and officials have made it clear that they see further increases as unlikely. But one important takeaway from recent Fed commentary is that unlikely and inconceivable are not the same thing. After the central bank held rates steady at 5.3 percent last week, the Fed’s chair, Jerome H. Powell, delivered a news conference where what he didn’t say mattered. Asked whether officials might raise interest rates again, he said he thought they probably would not — but he also avoided fully ruling out the possibility. And when asked, twice, whether he thought rates were high enough to bring inflation fully under control, he twice tiptoed around the question.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell, Mr, ” Organizations: Federal Reserve

☆ Election Updates: Biden and Trump tussle over the economy with the new jobs report.
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Shane Goldmacher | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

The latest employment report on Friday showing a lower-than-forecast 175,000 new jobs across the country in April became immediate fodder for the 2024 presidential race. The monthly jobs report is likely to be quickly forgotten in the campaign. But the biggest impact could be on the Federal Reserve, which sets interest rates in the country. Mr. Trump himself appears to be closely tracking the rate decisions of the Federal Reserve. At the Manhattan courthouse on Thursday, Mr. Trump said, “Interest rates are obviously not going to be reduced prior to the election because inflation is roaring back.”

Persons: Donald J, Trump, Biden, Biden’s, Jerome H, Powell, ” Organizations: White, Federal Reserve, The New York Times, Siena College, Mr Locations: New York, Manhattan

☆ What to Watch as the Fed Makes Its Interest Rate Decision
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

On the one hand, officials could stick with their recent script: Their next policy move is likely to be an interest rate reduction, but incoming inflation and growth data will determine how soon reductions can begin and how extensive they will be. Policymakers believe that they need to use interest rates to tap the brakes on demand and bring inflation fully under control. The Fed will release its policy decision in a statement at 2 p.m. Eastern. But investors are likely to focus most intently on a news conference scheduled for 2:30 p.m. with Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair. Central bankers will not release quarterly economic projections at this gathering — the next set is scheduled for release after the Fed’s June 11-12 meeting.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Federal

☆ Fed Holds Rates Steady, Noting Lack of Progress on Inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | More About Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve officials left interest rates unchanged and signaled that they are wary about how stubborn inflation is proving, paving the way for a longer period of high interest rates. The Fed held borrowing costs steady at 5.33 percent on Wednesday, leaving them at a more than two-decade high where they have been set since July. Central bankers reiterated that they need “greater confidence” that inflation is coming down before reducing rates. “Readings on inflation have come in above expectations,” Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said at a news conference following the release of the central bank’s rate decision. After months of rapid cooling, inflation has proved surprisingly sticky in early 2024.

Persons: ” Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed

The Federal Reserve is likely to wait longer than initially expected to cut interest rates given stubborn inflation readings in recent months, the central bank’s top two officials said Tuesday. Policymakers came into 2024 looking for evidence that inflation was continuing to cool rapidly, as it did late last year. Instead, progress on inflation has stalled or even reversed by some measures. But he stopped short of saying he expected rates will need to stay at their current levels, 5.3 percent, deep into this year. Last month, Fed officials indicated that they expect to cut rates three times by the end of 2024.

Persons: ” Jerome H, Powell, Philip N, Jefferson Organizations: Federal Locations: Washington

☆ Fed Chair Awaits More Inflation Cooling as Path Proves ‘Bumpy’
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-03 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | Santul Nerkar | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, reiterated on Wednesday that the central bank can take its time before cutting interest rates as inflation fades and economic growth holds up. This year is a big one for the Fed: After long months of rapid inflation, price increases are finally coming down. That means that central bankers may soon be able to lower interest rates from their highest levels in two decades. The Fed raised rates to 5.3 percent from March 2022 to mid-2023 to cool the economy and bring inflation to heel. Figuring out when and how much to cut interest rates is tricky, though.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Stanford, Fed

☆ Will A.I. Boost Productivity? Companies Sure Hope So.
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-01 | by ( Jordyn Holman | Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Rapid productivity improvement is the dream for both companies and economic policymakers. If output per hour holds steady, firms must either sacrifice profits or raise prices to pay for wage increases or investment projects. Economies experiencing productivity booms can experience rapid wage gains and quick growth without as much risk of rapid inflation. — especially generative A.I., which is still in its infancy — has spread enough to show up in productivity data already. “may” have the potential to increase productivity growth, “but probably not in the short run.” John C. Williams, president of the New York Fed, has made similar remarks, specifically citing the work of the Northwestern University economist Robert Gordon.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell, ” John C, Williams, Robert Gordon Organizations: Ben, Abercrombie, Fitch’s, Federal Reserve, New York Fed, Northwestern University

☆ Fed Chair Says Central Bank Need Not ‘Hurry’ to Cut Rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-29 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, said on Friday that resilient economic growth is giving the central bank the flexibility to be patient before cutting interest rates. Fed officials raised interest rates sharply from early 2022 to mid-2023, and they have left them at about 5.3 percent since last July. That relatively high level essentially taps the brakes on the economy, in part by making it expensive to borrow to buy a house or start a business. The goal is to keep rates high enough, for long enough, to wrestle inflation back under control. Given that slowdown, officials have been considering when and how much they can cut interest rates this year.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve

☆ Bridge accidents: Three ships have hit bridges in Argentina, China and Baltimore in just three months
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-27 | by ( Jessie Yeung | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

These events all happened within the first three months of this year – and all after collisions with large commercial ships. And a month earlier, a large cargo ship collided with the Zárate–Brazo Largo Bridges crossing the Prana River in Argentina, according to now-shuttered government-run news agency Télam – severely damaging the ship, though the bridge remained intact. By contrast, in the Baltimore example, the water channel and bridge are wide and tall enough to accommodate large vessels – and the cargo ship hit the bridge pier, not the bridge itself, Andrawes said. But even these measures can only do so much in the event of a large cargo ship collision, Mercogliano said, pointing to the Baltimore collapse. “And even when the ship hit those dolphins, the ship was so large it towered over them and actually struck the bridge itself.

Persons: Francis Scott Key, DALI, ”, Sal Mercogliano, Télam, Bassem, Andrawes, it’s, Mercogliano, Baltimore Steve Helber, there’s, Jerome Hajjar Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, University of Illinois, Sunshine Skyway, Coast Guard, Structural Engineering, American Society of Civil Engineers Locations: Hong Kong, Baltimore, China, Argentina, Patapsco, Guangzhou, –, Largo Bridges, Urbana, Champaign, Florida

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