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The pace of inflation likely moderated again in August — further relief for beleaguered consumers still smarting from pandemic-era price shocks. Though price growth has largely returned to the Federal Reserve's official 2% target, the sting of rapid price increases over the past four years lingers for many consumers. The latest inflation report is likely to cement a 0.25% cut in the Federal Reserve's key interest rate, currently at about 5.3%, later this month. But experts say it will take some time for consumers to feel the impact of the lower interest rate — and the relatively small size of the cut means borrowing costs will still be somewhat elevated. While the Fed is now widely expected to cut interest rates, a cut of just 0.25% may not be enough to stave off that scenario.
Persons: , There's, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Zillow, Paul, ” Marina Walsh, ” Walsh, Torsten Slok, Slok, Sophia Kearney, Jerome Powell's, Kearney, Lederman Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve's, Democratic, Labor Statistics, Princeton, , Mortgage Bankers Association, Apollo Global Management, FHN, NBC News, Fed Locations: U.S, New York, Los Angeles, Minneapolis, St, Las Vegas, Phoenix
Gold prices holds steady with U.S. CPI data on radar
  + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold bars and gold coins of different sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metal dealer Pro Aurum. Gold prices steadied on Wednesday, as investors keenly awaited the U.S. inflation data for hints on the size of the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut next week. The U.S. Consumer Price Index data is due at 1230 GMT, while the Producer Price Index reading and initial jobless claims are due on Thursday. The Fed will lower interest rates by 25 basis points at each of the three remaining policy meetings in 2024, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll. Zero-yield bullion tends to be a preferred investment amid lower interest rates and geopolitical turmoil.
Persons: Matt Simpson, Price, Jerome Powell's, Peter Fung, Yoav Gallant Organizations: Aurum, Federal, Index, U.S, Consumer, Metals Locations: Gaza, Lebanon
This has spiked the interest rates small business owners are paying on new mortgages, credit, and loans. Related storiesPowell said that small business owners are poised to benefit regardless of the size of the cut and should remain hopeful about future growth. According to the National Federation of Independent Businesses, small business confidence dipped in August. AdvertisementHe said small businesses tend to be more credit-constrained, so changes in interest rates are particularly influential for business owners' management decisions. Are you a small business owner who has experienced a recent change in sales or hiring?
Persons: , Phil Powell, it's, Powell, Jerome Powell, Sean Higgins, Higgins Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, Indiana Business Research Center, Indiana University Kelley School of Business, Federal Open Markets, Treasury Department, National Federation of Independent Businesses, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University
You can opt-out at any time by visiting our Preferences page or by clicking "unsubscribe" at the bottom of the email. The consumer price index, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, increased 2.5% over the year from August 2023 to this past August, matching the forecast of 2.5% and below July's 2.9% rate. The new data will factor into the Federal Open Market Committee's interest-rate decision next week, with the hot core figure decreasing the odds of a jumbo 50-basis-point cut. Softening but still relatively strong labor market data will also weigh on the Fed's decision. "If that test is met, a reduction in our policy rate could be on the table as soon as the next meeting in September."
Persons: , Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business, Federal
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Friday backed an interest rate cut at the upcoming central bank policy meeting in less than two weeks, and indicated he’d be open to a substantial reduction if necessary. Other policymakers recently have advocated easing policy soon, but this is one of the clearest indications it will happen at the Sept. 17-18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. “Determining the pace of rate cuts and ultimately the total reduction in the policy rate are decisions that lie in the future,” Waller added. With inflation and employment near our longer-run goals and the labor market moderating, it is likely that a series of reductions will be appropriate,” he said. Futures market pricing following the jobs report tilted toward a greater likelihood of a quarter percentage point rate reduction this month.
Persons: Christopher Waller, ” Waller, Waller, verbiage, Jerome Powell, , nonfarm, Dow Jones, Organizations: Federal, Council, Foreign Relations, Labor Department, Dow Locations: New York
(Photo Illustration by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images) Justin Sullivan | Getty ImagesCryptocurrency exchange Coinbase just wrapped up its worst week of the year. According to CoinGlass, September is historically a difficult trading month for crypto assets, with bitcoin notching an average loss of 4.8%. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a gauge of crypto market sentiment, is firmly in the "Extreme Fear" zone, indicating that investors are worried about price moves. On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a cooldown in the labor market with August payrolls falling short of expectations. Crypto equities hit hardestWhile it was a rough week for risky assets of all sorts, investors over-indexed in crypto stocks had it particularly bad.
Persons: Justin Sullivan, Schwab, CoinGlass, Bitcoin, payrolls, Leena ElDeeb, MicroStrategy, Michael Saylor, CleanSpark, Jerome Powell, Donald Trump, Trump, Gary Gensler Organizations: Securities, Exchange, Securities and Exchange Commission, Marathon, Nasdaq, bitcoin, Labor, of Labor Statistics, SEC, JPMorgan Chase, Federal Reserve, August's, U.S, Republican Locations: CALIFORNIA, San Anselmo , California, Bitcoin, U.S, MicroStrategy, Coinbase, Nashville
New York CNN —Wall Street is eyeing what could be the most consequential economic data report in months due out Friday. At the same time, Wall Street is looking for signs that the job market is cooling steadily, rather than plummeting into conditions for a recession. That uncertainty has been palpable in recent days as Wall Street parsed several economic reports before Friday’s main event. Big Tech shares gained Thursday, but suffered steep losses earlier this week. Tesla, the only Magnificent Seven tech stock up for the week, has jumped 7.5%.
Persons: That’s, Jerome Powell, , , Christopher Larkin, Morgan, Stocks, Dow, BeiChen Lin, Tesla Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Institute for Supply Management, , Russell Investments, Big Tech, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Organization of, Petroleum Locations: New York, China
The good news outweighs the bad Seasonality aside, the market is riding a wave of momentum, and with good reason: 1) The market "broadening" trend is very real. At Jackson Hole, chairman Jerome Powell made it clear that the Fed had shifted its attention from fighting inflation to the job market. S&P 500 in September: It's been ugly recently (rounded) 2023: down 5%2022: down 9%2021: down 5%2020: down 4% The elections are another wildcard. Two-thirds of the S&P 500 was up in August. Most importantly, the Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) modestly outperformed the S&P 500 in August and closed Friday at an historic high.
Persons: Frank Gretz, Wellington Shields, Robert Hum, It's, Consumer Staples, Jerome Powell, David Smith, Brendan McDermid Organizations: Dow, NASDAQ, Russell, NYSE, Megacap Tech, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Consumer, Estate, Technology, American Association of, Bulls, PCE, Fed, Rockland Trust, CNBC, Traders, New York Stock Exchange Locations: Wellington, Meta, Rockland, New York City, U.S
Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core PCE also increased 0.2% for the month but was up 2.6% from a year ago. Core prices less housing, another key metric for the Fed, increased just 0.1% on the month. Elsewhere in the report, the department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said personal income increased 0.3%, slightly higher than the 0.2% estimate, while consumer spending rose 0.5%, in line with the forecast. Markets reacted little to the news, with equity futures pointing to a slightly higher open on Wall Street and Treasury yields higher as well. In recent days, policymakers such as Chair Jerome Powell have expressed confidence that inflation is progressing back to the Fed's 2% goal.
Persons: Dow, Joseph Brusuelas, Jerome Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Dow Jones, Fed, department's, BEA, Treasury, RSM
Various indicators are pointing to a labor market that, if not in outright deterioration, is at least slowing. "Declines of this magnitude tend to occur when the economy is heading into recession and when the unemployment rate is on the ascent," he said. The unemployment rate almost always either heads up or down, with little evidence of extended plateaus. The current momentum is up, though the consensus estimate for August is that the unemployment rate will tick down to 4.2%, according to FactSet. "When you talk to firms ... it doesn't look like the labor market is not healthy," former Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said Tuesday on CNBC.
Persons: Troy Ludtka, Jerome Powell, Beth Ann Bovino, Mary Daly, Nonfarm, Nikko, Loretta Mester, hasn't Organizations: Federal, Nikko Securities, Conference Board, Board, Labor Department, San Francisco Fed, Bloomberg News, Cleveland Fed, CNBC Locations: U.S
Shortly after the opening bell, we'll sell 30 shares of Palo Alto Networks at roughly $349.50 each. Following Monday's trade, Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust will own 230 shares of PANW, decreasing its weighting to 2.4% from 2.71%. PANW YTD mountain Palo Alto Networks YTD Monday's trim of Palo Alto Networks was signaled both before and after last week's strong earnings report , especially when it was up about 8% last Tuesday . THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer's, Friday's dovish, Jerome Powell, Jackson, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: Palo Alto Networks, Federal, CNBC Locations: Palo, cybersecurity
Mortgage rates dropped substantially earlier this month and they remain low today. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates would impact your monthly payments. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesLast week, average 15-year mortgage rates were 5.62%, a four-basis-point decrease from the previous week, according to Freddie Mac data. Mortgage rates have been elevated for most of 2024, but they've been trending down in recent months. Once the Fed cuts rates, mortgage rates should fall even further.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, you'll, Freddie Mac, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Traders, Zillow Locations: Jackson Hole, Chevron
A few well-known regional banks are poised to benefit from the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate cuts, according to Evercore ISI. Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated on Friday that the central bank is ready for interest rate cuts ahead , although he declined to provide the exact timing or extent of the cuts. As investors await the Fed's moves, Evercore ISI used its updated asset/liability committee scenarios and several banks' net interest income commentary to find which names appear strongest in a lower interest rate environment. According to the note, Comerica, U.S. Bancorp and Fifth Third each forecast two interest rate cuts this year. Comerica shares dipped more than 10% on July 19 after the company posted its second-quarter results.
Persons: Jerome Powell, John Pancari, Pancari, Curtis Farmer, Truist Organizations: Federal, ISI, Comerica, Truist Financial, U.S . Bancorp, Fifth Third Bancorp, FactSet Locations: U.S
"Incredibly, the Fed raised rates 500 basis points under a false presumption — by over one million — of just how robust the jobs market was," Rosenberg said. AdvertisementIn addition to the yearly revisions, monthly payroll revisions from the Bureau of Labor Statistics have also been poor more recently. Related storiesOne is a model that aims to enhance the yield curve as a recession indicator by taking into account US businesses' ability to repay debts and the Fed's National Financial Conditions Index. A soft-landing outcome, where the Fed avoids sending the economy into recession, is also still the consensus view on Wall Street. With inflation down under 3% and rate cuts almost surely on the way, such a scenario is still seemingly possible.
Persons: , David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Pascal Michaillat, Emmanuel Saez, Vane, Chuck Prince, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson, payrolls, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Research, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fed, Treasury, Pantheon, Labor Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming
More than halfway through the third quarter, many of the biggest commodity ETFs in the United States are in sizable holes. Kathy Kriskey, senior commodities ETF strategist at Invesco, said that oil supply is actually tight at the moment. The commodities slump could be partially due to mechanical factors in the market, such as low trading volumes combined with large commodity trading advisors betting against the sector, Kriskey said. "The price of corn has taken almost three full years from those 2022 spike highs to get back down. And oil, one of the biggest weights in commodity indexes, could see stepped up supply in coming months.
Persons: It's, Ryan Grabinski, Strategas, Kathy Kriskey, Kriskey, Sal Gilbertie, We're, Gilbertie, What's, Jerome Powell, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Matijn, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Strategy, United States Oil Fund, U.S ., Commodities, 4Q, DB Base Metals Fund Locations: United States, Ukraine, U.S, China
One of the most painful ways higher interest rates have impacted Americans is through higher housing costs. The combination of high borrowing costs and skyrocketing home prices and rents — caused by a housing shortage — has created an enduring housing affordability crisis. On the one hand, lower borrowing costs would likely make mortgages cheaper for buyers and encourage builders to construct desperately needed new homes. But rate cuts would also spur new home construction, as builders respond to higher demand and lower borrowing costs for acquisition and construction loans. On top of high borrowing costs, builders are struggling with a severe shortage of construction workers and high building material costs.
Persons: , Jerome Powell, Daryl Fairweather, Wells, underbuilding, Ben Metcalf, Metcalf Organizations: Service, Jackson Hole , Wyoming ., Business, Bank of England, Terner Center, Housing Innovation, UC Berkeley Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming
The tides are changing on Wall Street thanks to a closely watched market-moving figure: Jerome Powell. The Federal Reserve chair on Friday pointed to rate cuts on the horizon during his keynote address at the central bank's annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. "The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks." The Nasdaq Composite outperformed the major indexes, rallying about 1% due to gains in popular artificial intelligence and semiconductor names. "This keeps a tailwind at the market's back into year-end, making it harder to expect a retest of this month's lows," said David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Chris Rupkey, Russell, Powell, David Russell Organizations: Federal, Nasdaq Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Covid
Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, waits to deliver a lecture at the London School of Economics in London, UK, on Tuesday, May 21, 2024. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will hail the progress made in dampening inflation in the U.K. in a Friday speech, but also caution that monetary policy may need to remain restrictive for longer than expected due to shocks from the labor market. Headline price rises in the U.K. hit the BOE's 2% target for two months this year, before rising to 2.2% in July. However, he will caution that two less "benign" scenarios remain possible that will require the Bank of England to "maintain restriction for longer." It comes after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday gave his firmest comments yet indicating that interest rate cuts lie ahead for the world's biggest central bank, stating: "The time has come for policy to adjust."
Persons: Andrew Bailey, Bailey, Jerome Powell Organizations: Bank of England, London School of Economics, U.S, Bank of Locations: London, U.S . Federal, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Bank of England
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailING economist discusses expectations for Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson HoleRob Carnell of ING discusses what to expect from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's policy speech at Jackson Hole on Friday.
Persons: Jackson, Rob Carnell, Jerome Powell's Organizations: ING, U.S . Federal Locations: U.S
Evans pointed to signs of the economy slowing down, including what he called the "deteriorating" U.S. labor market. The Fed funds futures market suggests that investors are expecting at least three rate cuts by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. "A few rate cuts are not going to prevent a recession. Average recession is 10 months… It takes something like a year before fed cuts actually start to give a boost to the economy," he said. "The market believes that the fed fund rate at the end of next year will be 3%.
Persons: Garry Evans, Evans, It's, Jerome Powell, isn't Organizations: BCA Research, . Federal, BCA Research's, U.S . Labor Department, Traders Locations: U.S, Jackson
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell laid the groundwork Friday for interest rate cuts ahead, though he declined to provide exact indications on timing or extent. "The time has come for policy to adjust," the central bank leader said in his much-awaited keynote address at the Fed's annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. "The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks." The labor market is no longer overheated, and conditions are now less tight than those that prevailed before the pandemic," Powell said. He vowed that "we will do everything we can" to make sure the labor market says strong and progress on inflation continues.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Jackson, Powell, Stocks, Paul McCulley Organizations: Traders Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming
A collection of stocks on Wall Street may have recently gotten ahead of themselves. Shares of aerospace and defense contractor Northrop Grumman have advanced roughly 9% in 2024 and 5% in August alone. The company's second-quarter results in July surpassed Wall Street estimates on the top and bottom lines, while Northrop's full-year revenue outlook also beat analysts' expectations. UBS analyst Gavin Parsons recently highlighted Northrop as the bank's top pick among aerospace and defense stocks, citing awards of two of the Pentagon's top three "priority programs" as well as higher defense spending. The deal, at a planned $83.50 per share, is the largest acquisition on Wall Street in 2024 so far.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Northrop Grumman, Gavin Parsons, Kellanova Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, FactSet, UBS, Northrop, Mars, Aflac, Edison International Locations: California
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivers his keynote speech Friday morning at the central bank's annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Powell was widely expected to chart a path forward that includes interest rate reductions as the pace of inflation eases and concerns increase about the durability of the U.S. economic expansion. In previous years, he has used Jackson Hole to lay out significant policy initiatives and intentions. Markets widely expect the Fed to begin lowering rates in September and continue with a series of cuts through at least 2025. Read more:Fed minutes point to 'likely' rate cut coming in SeptemberFed survey shows lows in employment, worries about finding work and dissatisfaction with payPhiladelphia Fed President Harker advocates for interest rate cut in SeptemberSubscribe to CNBC on YouTube.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Jackson, Read, Harker Organizations: Philadelphia, CNBC, YouTube Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming
Lower interest rates are "generally positive for stocks," said Marguerita Cheng, a CFP and chief executive of Blue Ocean Global Wealth, based in Gaithersburg, Maryland. Considerations for cash, bonds and stocksFalling interest rates generally means investors can expect lower returns on their "safer" money, advisors said. High interest rates have meant investors enjoyed fairly lofty returns on these lower-risk holdings. Winnie Sun co-founder and managing director of Sun Group Wealth PartnersHowever, such returns are expected to fall alongside declining interest rates, advisors said. "They'll be crying in six months when interest rates are a lot lower," she said.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Andrew Harnik, Winnie Sun, Lee Baker, Powell, Stephen Brown, Marguerita Cheng, Sun, Powell didn't, Ted Jenkin, Carolyn McClanahan Organizations: Getty, Sun Group Wealth Partners, Financial Advisors, Finance, North, Capital Economics, Blue, Sun Group Wealth, Planning Partners Locations: Irvine , California, Atlanta, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, North America, Gaithersburg , Maryland, Jacksonville , Florida
The former Treasury Secretary told Bloomberg TV that the central bank's interest rate strategy has largely succeeded, even though Fed officials made a major blunder by first underestimating pandemic-era inflation. In 2021, the Fed mischaracterized inflation as "transitory," citing that COVID supply chain disruptions would eventually blow away. Once central bankers grew to understand that inflation needed an interest rate response, the Fed initiated the most aggressive policy-tightening campaign in recent history. In that period, Summers often showcased skepticism that the Fed could clamp down on inflation this way without economic consequences. AdvertisementNow, the main question is how far interest rates could fall during the Fed's September meeting.
Persons: , Larry Summers, Summers, I've, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Business, Fed
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