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Improving news on inflation again has raised investors' hopes that the Federal Reserve soon will start to aggressively lower interest rates. Futures market pricing now indicates that while the Fed will remain on hold at next week's policy meeting, it will commence cutting in September and move again in November and December. The market-implied probability for a September cut nudged up to about 90% Friday morning, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool that measures fed funds futures pricing. Traders in early 2024 were pricing in at least six cuts this year, but the central bank's rate-setting group has remained on hold for a year. Following the two-day meeting that concludes next Wednesday, the Fed meeting schedule is empty for August, save for the all-important annual conclave in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Persons: Joseph Brusuelas, , Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller Organizations: Federal Reserve, Friday's Commerce Department, RSM, Traders, Federal Open, Fed Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming
Instead, small caps spent the first half of this year doing what they've been doing for the last decade: falling behind. The Russell 2000 Value was up 10%, while the Russell 2000 having gained 11%. A sustainable rally Small caps have underperformed for roughly the last decade, but they've typically done better historically. Meanwhile, Teton Westwood's Galluccio thinks it can last much longer: "I think small caps stand to outperform for the next three years." "The last decade was the first time in many, many years when small caps underperformed, leading the talking heads to say that quality, quality, quality is large-cap growth.
Persons: Jerome Powell, they've, Russell, Nicholas Galluccio, It's, You've, I've, Mike Rode, Rode, Galluccio Organizations: Federal, TW Smallcap Equity, Fama, Investments, Panasonic, LSEG Locations: Fama French, De Soto , Kansas
"Although it might already be too late to fend off a recession by cutting rates, dawdling now unnecessarily increases the risk," the former New York Federal Reserve President said. But to Dudley, even this is too late, and central bankers would do better to pivot rates at next week's policy meeting. AdvertisementAccording to Dudley, this slowdown points to fewer jobs down the road, and an uptick in unemployment could set off a near-certain recession indicator: the Sahm Rule. Despite this, Dudley suggested that the Fed might not be as concerned about breaching the Sahm Rule as it should be. According to Dudley, there are two other reasons the Fed may be waiting for September to cut rates.
Persons: , Bill Dudley, dawdling, Dudley, Jerome Powell, Claudia Sahm, I'm Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, New York Federal, Business, Fed Locations: Dudley
Treasury yields slip as investors weigh state of economy
  + stars: | 2024-07-23 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by over one basis point to 4.2427%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was last over one basis point lower to 4.5105%. U.S. Treasury yields were slightly lower on Tuesday as investors considered the outlook for the U.S. economy ahead of key data slated for the week. Investors awaited the latest economic data as they assessed the state of the U.S. economy and what this could mean for monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve. Markets are not expecting interest rates to be cut then but are anticipating clues about a timeline for monetary policy being loosened.
Persons: Jerome Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Investors, Federal Reserve, Richmond Fed, Fed, Traders Locations: U.S
As the frontrunner for the Democratic party's nomination, Kamala Harris will have to run, for better or worse, on President Joe Biden's economic record. It will be just one challenge Harris will have to overcome to defeat her Republican opponent, former President Donald Trump . Despite historically low unemployment and macro growth that has defied long-held expectations for recession, the economy is Biden's soft spot. "I don't see a lot of daylight between her views on economic policy and those of the administration," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics , a Democrat who has advised administrations of both parties. Possible change at the Fed One area of difference between Biden and Harris could be a crucial one — the Federal Reserve.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Joe Biden's, Biden, Harris, Donald Trump, She's, Greg Valliere, she's, There's, Mark Zandi, Zandi, nonfarm, Joseph LaVorgna, Biden's, Trump, Jerome Powell, Powell, reappoint Powell Organizations: Democratic, Biden, Republican, AGF Investments, Reuters, Moody's, Democrat, Economic Council, Nikko Securities, Federal Reserve, Senate, Beacon, Advisors Locations: California
When the Federal Reserve adjusts the federal funds rate, the decision affects banking products. It holds eight meetings annually, and one of the primary topics discussed is the federal funds rate. As a consumer, you'll see that changes to the federal funds rate impact banking products. The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate several times in 2023 to combat inflation, which is why savings rates are still competitive in mid-2024. If the Fed raises interest rates, interest rates on banking products will likely be impacted.
Persons: aren't, Jerome Powell, Banks, it's Organizations: Fed, Federal Reserve, Market, Governors, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Bank, Reserve Bank, Market Committee, Chevron
New York CNN —Stocks are soaring this year, but that could soon change as election chaos takes the market on a rollercoaster ride. But this has been a destabilizing week for US stocks and the market trajectory could be shifting. The Dow was down more than 430 points, or 1%, in the morning trading session on Friday as the tech outage continued to rattle investors. Former President Donald Trump, meanwhile, said in an interview with Bloomberg that Taiwan should pay for its own defense. The bright sideInvestors have been largely resilient this year and some financial bigwigs say the election won’t change that.
Persons: Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Dow, , , , Jim Reid, Biden, they’re, Scott Wren, Wells, Jerome Powell, Liz Young Thomas, Russell, Young Thomas, ” Trump, CrowdStrike, JPMorgan Chase, Jeremy Barnum, isn’t Organizations: New, New York CNN, Investors, Big Tech, Nasdaq, Deutsche Bank, Democratic, , Treasury, Fed, Tech, Bloomberg, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, JPMorgan Locations: New York, Iran, Israel, Wells Fargo, , China, Taiwan
Treasury yields rise as investors weigh rate outlook
  + stars: | 2024-07-19 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by over one basis point to 4.2000%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last less than one basis point higher to 4.4706%. U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Friday as investors considered the path ahead for interest rates after the latest comments from Federal Reserve officials. Investors digested remarks from Fed policymakers made throughout the week as they weighed the potential path ahead for interest rates. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also this week said that rate cuts would begin before inflation reaches the 2% target.
Persons: Mary Daly, we're, Daly, Christopher Waller, Jerome Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, Fed
Read previewFormer President Donald Trump said the Federal Reserve should not cut interest rates before the presidential election, according to an interview he did with Bloomberg Businessweek. The Federal Open Market Committee has two interest rate decisions scheduled before the election in July and September. "I think it's past time for them to cut interest rates," Zandi said. During a February interview with Fox News, Trump accused Powell of being "political" and planning interest rate cuts to coincide with the election. "I think he's going to do something to probably help the Democrats, I think, if he lowers interest rates," Trump said, adding that "it looks to me like he's trying to lower interest rates for the sake of maybe getting people elected."
Persons: , Donald Trump, Trump, Jerome Powell, Mark Zandi, Powell, Zandi, Claudia Sahm, Sahm, he's Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg Businessweek, Business, Democratic, Federal, Reserve, Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs, Fed, New Century Advisors, Fox News, Stanford's Business, Government, Society, Trump, Wall Street
The yield on the 10-year Treasury was trading around 4.1672% at 2:20 a.m. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was also 2 basis points higher at 4.4524%. U.S. Treasury yields moved higher on Thursday as investors digested a range of comments by Federal Reserve officials and what they could mean for interest rates. It comes as traders increasingly bet on a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a reduction in July now seen as highly unlikely. Earlier this week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said interest rates would likely be cut before inflation reaches 2%.
Persons: Christopher Waller, John Williams, Thomas Barkin, Jerome Powell, you've, Powell, Dow Jones, , Jeff Cox Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, Federal, York Fed, Wall Street Journal, Richmond Fed, Deutsche Bank, Economic, of Washington D.C
Asia-Pacific markets plummeted as chip-related stocks dropped following reports of more stringent export restrictions from the U.S. and as comments from former U.S. President Donald Trump raised geopolitical tensions. Japan's Nikkei 225 declined more than 2%, while the Topix dropped 1.13%. Shares of Tokyo Electron , which supplies to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company , plunged more than 10%, while other chip-related stocks such as Advantest and Organo dropped more than 5% and 2%, respectively. Shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company — the world's largest chip maker — fell more than 3%, dragging the Taiwan Weighted Index lower by 1.7%. The Nasdaq Composite fell nearly 2.8% overnight — posting its worst day since December 2022.
Persons: Donald Trump, Organo, , Jerome Powell's Organizations: Nikkei, Tokyo, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Samsung Electronics, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Nasdaq Locations: Asia, Pacific, U.S, Taiwan
Read previewBarely a week after the failed assassination of former US President Donald Trump, investors are already moving on from the "Trump trade." The "Trump trade" refers to investor strategies that reflect the market consequences of a second Trump presidency. Schumacher said the "Trump trade" has run its course and is "about done for now." Focus on Fed interest rate decisionTo be sure, a second Trump presidency — including his administration's trade and tariff policies — would have important implications for the macroeconomy and markets, say most analysts. On Wednesday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated that the central bank would cut "in the not-too-distant future."
Persons: , Donald Trump, Trump, Michael Schumacher, Schumacher, Vishnu Varathan, Mizuho Bank's, Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller Organizations: Service, Trump, Business, Federal Reserve, US Treasury, Bloomberg, Wells, Wells Fargo Securities, Fed, Swiss, UBS Locations: Wells Fargo, Asia, Japan
Washington CNN —Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump would not fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell if the former president wins the election in November, according to a Bloomberg interview published Tuesday. Powell, a registered Republican, was first tapped to helm the central bank by Trump in 2017. That still wouldn’t stop Trump from pushing to oust Powell before the Fed head’s term concludes in 2026. “He sued for reinstatement and even though he died while the litigation was pending, the Supreme Court still took up his case. It answers to Congress, not the US president, according to the law that established the central bank.
Persons: Donald Trump, Jerome Powell, he’d, Powell, Trump, , he’s, reappoint Powell, Powell isn’t, William Humphrey, Franklin Roosevelt, Organizations: Washington CNN, Republican, Bloomberg, Trump, Fed, Democratic, House, Federal Trade Commission, Brookings Institution, Fed’s, Governors
At the end of July, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce its next decision on interest rates. Some economists have recently been pointing to similar concerns with the Fed keeping interest rates high. As Sahm pointed out, it would take time for reduced interest rates to "flow through to the economy." "You want to begin a process of taking the pressure off of the economy," Sahm said. AdvertisementZandi said interest rates on credit cards and Buy Now, Pay Later rates could come down, along with a decline in auto lending rates and mortgage rates.
Persons: , Mark Zandi, Jerome Powell, Powell, Claudia Sahm, it's, Sahm, Sen, Elizabeth Warren, Brian Rose, Rose, Zandi, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee Organizations: Service, Moody's, Business, Federal, CME FedWatch, Fed, Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs, Sahm Consulting, Federal Reserve, Democratic, UBS, Chicago Federal, Wall Street Journal
The rotation trade likely won't save the S & P 500 from a double-digit correction ahead, according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research. On the other hand, the mega-cap tech stocks have faltered. But Stovall is skeptical, saying he anticipates an S & P 500 pullback ahead, possibly in September, in the low double-digits. Expensive valuations Central to the strategist's concern is the overbought nature of large-cap tech stocks. Rotate into very attractive mid- and small-cap stocks or mid- and small-cap ETFs," Stovall said.
Persons: Sam Stovall, Stocks, Jerome Powell, Russell, Stovall Organizations: CFRA Research, Federal, Nvidia, CNBC Locations: Great
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at a news conference on interest rates, the economy and monetary policy actions on June 15, 2022. LONDON — European stocks are expected to open in mixed territory Tuesday as investors assess the economic and political outlook in the region and beyond. The U.K.'s FTSE index is seen opening 15 points lower at 8,164, Germany's DAX down 19 points at 18,580, France's CAC 40 up 7 points at 7,633 and Italy's FTSE MIB down 31 points at 34,493, according to data from IG. Global markets are digesting dovish comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in which he said the central bank will not wait until inflation hits 2% to cut interest rates, as the Fed's policy works with "long and variable lags." So, "if you wait until inflation gets all the way down to 2%, you've probably waited too long," he said Monday.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Germany's DAX, you've Organizations: Federal, LONDON, CAC, IG, Global, U.S . Federal Locations: U.S
CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Record highThe Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at an all-time high after former President Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt. Trump's VP pickDonald Trump has chosen Senator JD Vance of Ohio as his vice presidential running mate for the 2024 election. Fed may not waitPowell said the central bank will not wait until inflation reaches its 2% target to cut interest rates. Fink believes bitcoin can offer uncorrelated returns and act as a hedge against currency debasement caused by excessive deficits.
Persons: Donald Trump, Russell, Jerome Powell, Trump's, JD Vance, Ohio, Trump, Vance, Biden, Powell, you've, Larry Fink, Fink, bitcoin, CNBC's, Goldman, Goldman Sachs, Denis Coleman, Colin Langan Organizations: CNBC, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Treasury, Federal, Truth, Trump, Republican, BlackRock, Goldman, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wall Locations: U.S, Wells
Oil prices tick down on worries about Chinese demand
  + stars: | 2024-07-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday on worries about a slowing Chinese economy crimping demand, though a growing consensus that the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin cutting its key interest rate as soon as September limited declines. Brent futures fell 9 cents, or 0.1%, to $84.76 a barrel by 12:21 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 13 cents, or 0.2%, to $81.78. China's economy grew much slower than expected in the second quarter, hamstrung by a protracted property downturn and job insecurity. Lower interest rates decrease the cost of borrowing, which can boost economic activity and oil demand. While crisis in the Middle East has not impacted supply, attacks on ships in the Red Sea has forced vessels to take longer routes, meaning oil remains on the water for longer.
Persons: Brent, Jerome Powell, Alexander Novak Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, U.S, West Texas, Organization of, Petroleum Locations: Yemen, Gaza, Russian, OPEC
China's biggest policy meeting in six years kicks will kick off this week. Asia-Pacific markets open mixed on Tuesday as traders in Asia react to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments that the central bank will not wait until inflation hits 2% to cut interest rates. Powell indicated that central bank is looking for "greater confidence" that inflation will drop to the 2% level, citing "long and variable lags" in policy effects. The blue-chip Dow also reached a new intraday high, advancing 0.53% to close at 40,211.72. Similarly, The S&P 500 added 0.28% to 5,631.22, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.4% to end at 18,472.57.
Persons: Jerome Powell's, Powell, Donald Trump's, Dow Organizations: Republican, Dow Jones, Nasdaq Locations: Asia, Pacific
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Dow record highThe Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at an all-time high after former President Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt. Trump lauded at RNCFormer President Donald Trump was cheered and celebrated at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, his first appearance since an assassination attempt at a Pennsylvania rally. [PRO] 'Super 8'UBS has updated its "Super 8" list of top Asian tech stocks, seen as alternatives to the US "Magnificent Seven."
Persons: Donald Trump, Russell, Jerome Powell, Trump, JD Vance, Ohio, Elon Musk, Powell, you've, Larry Fink, Fink, bitcoin, CNBC's, Donald Trump's Organizations: CNBC, Dow, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Treasury, Federal, RNC, Republican National Convention, Sporting, Trump, BlackRock, CSI, Nikkei, UBS Locations: U.S, Milwaukee, Pennsylvania, Asia, Pacific, China, Hong
Traders see the odds of a Fed rate cut by September at 100%
  + stars: | 2024-07-16 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Traders are now 100% certain the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by September. That put the annual inflation rate at 3%, the lowest in three years. Odds that rates would be cut in September were about 70% a month ago. The CME FedWatch Tool computes the probabilities based on trading in fed funds futures contracts at the exchange, where traders are placing their bets on the level of the effective fed funds rate in 30-day increments. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's recent hints have also cemented traders' belief that the central bank will act by September.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Jerome Powell's, Powell Organizations: Bank, Financial, Federal, U.S, Capitol, Washington , DC, Traders, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: Washington ,
An employee handles one kilogram gold bullions at the YLG Bullion International Co. headquarters in Bangkok, Thailand, on Friday, Dec. 22, 2023. Gold prices advanced Tuesday, on track for a record close as rising expectations of a September interest rate cut bolstered demand for bullion. Gold futures advanced 0.6% to $2,443.80. According to UBS, central bank buying of bullion is the highest it's been since the late 1960s. The U.S.-listed shares of Harmony Gold and Gold Fields rose 6% and 4%, respectively.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Joni Teves, Teves, Gold Organizations: Co, Federal, U.S, greenback, UBS, Citi, Miners, Harmony Locations: Bangkok, Thailand, Ukraine, China, U.S
London CNN —The International Monetary Fund has warned that stubborn inflation could keep interest rates higher for longer than expected, increasing fiscal and financial risks around the world. Persistently high prices for services — which include haircuts, hotels and restaurants — as well as escalating trade tensions are propping up inflation and raising the prospect that interest rates will stay high for a while yet, the IMF cautioned Tuesday in its latest World Economic Outlook. The warning highlights that the global economy is not yet in the clear when it comes to inflation, which explains the caution on the part of central banks in cutting interest rates. However, services inflation came in higher than expected. The agency blamed sticky services price inflation for “holding up progress” on reducing overall inflation.
Persons: Jerome Powell Organizations: London CNN —, Monetary Fund, Bank of England, European Union, IMF Locations: , United States, China, India, E.T
Gold drifts higher as U.S. rate cut optimism boosts appeal
  + stars: | 2024-07-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
A five hundred gram gold bar, left, and a a one kilogram gold bar, produced by Swiss manufacturer Argor Hebaeus SA, in Budapest, Hungary. Gold prices nudged higher on Tuesday as comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell bolstered the case for a September rate cut, while investors awaited more U.S. economic data for further monetary policy cues. Spot gold rose 0.1% to $2,423.89 per ounce by 0140 GMT. A rate cut in September is now fully priced in by markets, which may keep sentiments in gold prices well-supported in the lead-up," said IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong. Investors were awaiting U.S. retail sales data due at 1230 GMT on Tuesday and comments from Fed governors Christopher Waller and Adriana Kugler later this week for further direction.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Yeap Jun Rong, Christopher Waller, Adriana Kugler, Yeap Organizations: Argor Hebaeus SA, Federal, Investors, Reuters Locations: Swiss, Budapest, Hungary
With the S & P 500 surging more than 18% in 2024, it might be time for investors to make a few defensive moves in their portfolios. But that surge is spurring some financial advisors to reassess their clients' exposure to large-cap tech and turn toward currently unloved asset categories that could be poised to rise. "It might take a little longer to manifest but we think [health care] is an interesting combination of offense and defense, and it provides meaningful cash flows for investors," Saccocia said. Checking in on risk and cash Investors reviewing their 2024 gains should also reassess their risk profile and consider whether their asset allocation reflects their long-term goals. Tom Balcom, CFP and founder of 1650 Wealth Management in Lighthouse Point, Florida, has used custom market-linked notes to hedge clients' exposure to the market.
Persons: Nvidia —, Shon Anderson, Russell, Jerome Powell's, Shannon Saccocia, Neuberger Berman, Saccocia, Colin Gerrety, Gerrety, Tom Balcom, Balcom, Morningstar Organizations: Nvidia, Anderson Financial, Federal, Big Tech, Investors, JPMorgan Chase, UnitedHealth, Wealth Services Locations: Dayton , Ohio, REITs, North Bethesda , Maryland, Lighthouse Point , Florida
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