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☆ We asked Americans what they’d heard about Trump and Harris throughout the campaign. Here’s what they told us
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-10 | by ( Ariel Edwards-Levy | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Georgetown University, University of Michigan and s3mc.orgGeorgetown University, University of Michigan and s3mc.orgWhat also stands out in the charts over time is the lack of a sustained narrative about either candidate. On average, over the 20 weeks The Breakthrough survey was fielded this year, roughly 76% of US adults said weekly they’d heard at least some news about Trump. In the 15 full weeks of data following Harris’ entry into the race, a slightly smaller share – about 71% on average – said they’d heard something about her. Sentiments expressed by political independents when talking about the news surrounding Trump were negative throughout the campaign. Their sentiment when discussing what they’d heard about Harris, which was close to neutral at the start of her candidacy, declined modestly throughout the fall, undercutting her advantage over Trump on that metric.

Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Trump’s, Joe Biden, Harris, ”, Harris –, SSRS, Trump, Gallup’s Frank Newport, “, …, Hillary Clinton, they’d, Biden, –, undercutting, Jennifer Agiesta, Edward Wu Organizations: CNN, Trump’s, Trump, Georgetown University, University of Michigan Locations: Puerto Rico

☆ How CNN projects elections
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Zachary B. Wolf | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +14 min

CNN —Millions of Americans will be tuning in to CNN and other networks on election night as returns roll in. They’ll be waiting to see who wins, something CNN will determine with a series of projections. I talked to Jennifer Agiesta, CNN’s director of polling and election analytics, about how CNN approaches the job of projecting a winner. But it tends to be after Election Day in a place like Pennsylvania. Is there a precedent in your career for a race that’s this close heading into Election Day?

Persons: They’ll, Jennifer Agiesta, It’s, that’s, they’re, what’s, We’ll, Carter Smith, There’s, we’re, they’ll, we’ll, Megan Varner, Donald, Trump, Kamala, Harris, it’s Clark, That’s, I’m Organizations: CNN, White, Democratic, Republican, Bloomberg, Getty, Reuters, Democrat, New, Electoral College Locations: Houston, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, Atlanta, Nevada , Michigan, Wisconsin, Maricopa, In Nevada, Washoe, Milwaukee, Dane County, Grand Rapids, Kent County, Michigan, Florida . New Mexico, New Hampshire

☆ How exit polls work and what they will tell us on election night
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Ariel Edwards-Levy | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Exit polls are conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Pool on behalf of a consortium of media companies: CNN, ABC, CBS and NBC. The polling locations were themselves selected through random sampling, meaning the resulting interviews should be representative of Election Day voters across the state or nationally. In addition to the national exit poll, there are also exit polls conducted in specific states with key, competitive presidential or down-ballot races. Even so, exit polls are still polls, with margins for error – which means they’re most useful when treated as estimates, rather than precise measurements. That’s particularly true for the earliest exit poll numbers, which won’t yet have been adjusted to match the final election results.

Persons: who’ve, CNN’s Jennifer Agiesta Organizations: CNN, Edison Research, ABC, CBS, NBC Locations: Arizona, Georgia, Florida , Michigan, Nevada , North Carolina , Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Wisconsin

☆ What Americans heard about Trump heading into the campaign’s final week: fascism and french fries
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-03 | by ( Ariel Edwards-Levy | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Conversations around Vice President Kamala Harris, by contrast, continued to focus largely around broader and more conventional stories about her campaign. The poll, conducted by SSRS and Verasight on behalf of a research team from CNN, Georgetown University and the University of Michigan, was fielded from October 25-28. Georgetown University, University of Michigan and s3mc.org“Numerous former officers in the 2016-2020 Trump administration are sounding alarms that Trump will dismantle democracy if he’s elected,” wrote one Democratic-leaning independent. Georgetown University, University of Michigan and s3mc.orgWhen the survey asked respondents what they’d been hearing about Harris, the words “campaign,” “rally,” “interview,” “polls” and “ad” all cracked the top 10. Overall, the sentiment behind the words Americans used in describing what they’d heard about both Trump and Harris remained more negative than positive, with the sentiment around Harris continuing to dip from the earliest days of her campaign.

Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, SSRS, Trump’s, Trump, –, “, Arnold, ”, Joe Rogan, “ Trump, ‘, Hitler, ’, they’d, Harris, Jennifer Agiesta, Edward Wu Organizations: CNN, Georgetown University, University of Michigan, Madison, Fame, ”, Trump, Beyoncé Locations: Puerto Rico, Houston

☆ Trump no longer leads in a state he carried twice, according to new Iowa Poll
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-02 | by ( Jennifer Agiesta | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: 1 min

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Likely voters in Georgia divide 48% for Trump to 47% for Harris, and in North Carolina, Harris stands at 48% to Trump’s 47%. North Carolina, which narrowly supported Barack Obama in 2008, has voted Republican in the past three presidential elections. While the polls find similar political environments in Georgia and North Carolina overall, there are some significant differences. In both states, Harris leads among Black likely voters (84% to 13% in Georgia, 78% to 19% in North Carolina) and voters with college degrees (55% to 39% in Georgia, 53% to 42% in North Carolina). Interviews were conducted October 23-28, 2024, online and by telephone with registered voters, including 732 voters in Georgia and 750 in North Carolina.

Persons: CNN —, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, SSRS, Harris, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Bill Clinton, they’ve, –, Harris ’, White, ”, Josh Stein, Republican Mark Robinson, Robinson, Stein, Biden, Hurricane Helene, Helene, Black, Trump Organizations: CNN, White House, Trump, Republican, Democrat, Wisconsin –, White, North, Trump voters, North Carolina, Voters, – Locations: Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Michigan, Nevada , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North, In Georgia

In Michigan, Harris holds a lead over Trump by 48% to 43% among likely voters. Among those likely voters who say they’re extremely motivated to vote in Michigan, 51% support Harris to 45% for Trump. In Wisconsin, they break 52% Harris to 47% Trump, and in Pennsylvania, they divide 50% for Harris to 47% for Trump. Harris holds a wider lead among Black voters in Michigan (83% Harris to 12% Trump) than she does in Pennsylvania (76% Harris to 21% Trump). Likely voters include all registered voters in the poll weighted for their predicted likelihood of voting in this year’s election.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, Joe Biden, Robert F, Kennedy, Jr, Trump, –, that’s, Elissa Slotkin, Mike Rogers, Pennsylvania’s Democratic Sen, Bob Casey, Dave McCormick’s, Democratic Sen, Tammy Baldwin, Republican Eric Hovde’s, Harris ’, Biden Organizations: CNN, Electoral College, SSRS, Trump, White House, Trump ., White, Harris, Black, Keystone State, Suburban, Michigan Democratic, Republican, Pennsylvania’s Democratic, Senate, Democratic Locations: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Trump . In Michigan, Trump . In Wisconsin, Trump, Michigan , Pennsylvania, Southern, Western

In Nevada, 48% of likely voters support Trump and 47% back Harris. Hispanic likely voters in Nevada split about evenly between Harris and Trump (48% support Harris, 47% Trump). In Arizona, likely voters are split over which candidate cares more about people like them (45% say Harris does, 41% Trump). The gap is even wider in Nevada, where 71% of Democratic-leaning likely voters are very confident compared with 16% of Republican-aligned likely voters. Likely voters include all registered voters in the poll weighted for their predicted likelihood of voting in this year’s election.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, SSRS, Harris, Harris ’, Trump, White, Ruben Gallego, Kari Lake, Sen, Kyrsten Sinema, Democratic Sen, Jacky Rosen, Sam Brown, who’ve, Ethan Miller, Republican leaners Organizations: CNN, White, Trump ., Trump, Trump . Independent, Democratic, US Senate, Democratic Rep, Republican, Democrats Locations: Arizona, Nevada, Trump . In Nevada, Las Vegas, In Arizona, In Nevada

☆ CNN Poll: Most voters don’t think Trump will concede if he loses the 2024 election
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-28 | by ( Jennifer Agiesta | Ariel Edwards-Levy | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Overall, just 30% of registered voters think Trump will accept the results of the election and concede if he loses, while 73% say that Vice President Kamala Harris would accept an election loss. But that rises to 20% among registered voters who support Trump, compared with only 3% who feel that way among Harris supporters. The CNN Poll was conducted by SSRS online and by telephone October 20-23, 2024, among 1,704 registered voters nationwide drawn from a probability-based panel. Likely voters include all registered voters in the poll weighted for their predicted likelihood of voting in this year’s election. Results for the full sample of registered voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points; it is 3.1 for likely voters, and larger for subgroups.

Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Kamala Harris, Harris, Trump’s, There’s, Edward Wu Organizations: CNN, SSRS, Trump

During a special election in Wisconsin over the summer, a group of partisan poll watchers showed up at a handful of precincts in Glendale, a suburb of Milwaukee, and created chaos by contesting every absentee ballot that was cast. After they were reminded repeatedly about the rules against making meritless ballot challenges, the groups of poll watchers “turned disruptive,” according to Glendale Mayor Bryan Kennedy. They didn’t, and the police were called,” Kennedy told CNN, adding that once police arrived, the observers left peacefully. Some context: Poll watchers are a key component of election transparency, and both Democrats and Republicans have built out their ranks of volunteers and lawyers to observe polling places and vote counting centers. Read more about how election workers are preparing for poll watchers here.

Persons: “, Glendale Mayor Bryan Kennedy, ” Kennedy, —, Trump, Joe Biden —, Read Organizations: Glendale Mayor, CNN, Republicans, battlegrounds Locations: Wisconsin, Glendale, Milwaukee

☆ CNN Poll: Harris and Trump remain in a locked race and are tied heading into the final stretch
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-25 | by ( Jennifer Agiesta | Ariel Edwards-Levy | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +11 min

Registered voters’ views of both Harris (41% favorable to 52% unfavorable) and Trump (41% favorable to 54% unfavorable) break negative. More likely voters say Harris rather than Trump cares about people like them (43% Harris to 37% Trump), is honest and trustworthy (41% Harris to 29% Trump), and will put the country’s interests above their own (45% Harris to 39% Trump). Across each of those attributes though, 16% or more of likely voters say neither candidate fits the bill. Harris holds a wide advantage on handling abortion and reproductive rights (52% Harris to 31% Trump) and a smaller one on protecting democracy (45% Harris to 41% Trump). Harris holds the advantage over Trump among women (50% Harris to 44% Trump), younger voters (51% Harris to 41% Trump among voters younger than 35), and voters of color, including Black likely voters (79% Harris to 13% Trump) and Hispanic likely voters (54% Harris to 37% Trump).

Persons: SSRS, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, Trump, Joe Biden, Biden, who’ve, ”, Barack Obama, George H.W, Bush, Ronald Reagan, Al Gore, Bill Clinton’s, Harris ’, JD Vance, Tim Walz, Walz, Vance, Trump’s, White Organizations: CNN, Trump, Biden, Suburban, Republican, Democrat Locations: Black

☆ Harris media blitz and Trump campaign rallies capture Americans’ attention
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-19 | by ( Ariel Edwards-Levy | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The survey also finds dishonesty remaining a central theme of the election, with “lies” the most common word used in conjunction with Trump’s campaign. While both Harris and Trump have been holding rallies and speaking with podcasters, Harris has ramped up her media appearances. Mentions of the campaign made up 36% of the responses about Harris, and 28% of the responses about Trump, a 10-point rise for each candidate compared with the start of the month. “She is doing the media blitz everyone wanted.”Georgetown University, University of Michigan and s3mc.orgBy contrast, when Americans were asked to describe the news about Trump, “rally” was the second-most commonly word used in response. “He’s been posting all of his political rallies there.”Georgetown University, University of Michigan and s3mc.orgDemocrats, in particular, were also likely to mention Detroit.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, Trump, SSRS, ”, Howard Stern, Stephen Colbert, “ He’s, Hurricane Milton, “, Jennifer Agiesta, Edward Wu Organizations: CNN, Georgetown University, University of Michigan, Trump, CBS, s3mc.org Democrats, Detroit, Detroit Economic, Hurricane, Democratic National Convention, ABC Locations: California, New York, Aurora , Colorado, Coachella , California, Detroit, Florida

☆ Your election questions, answered
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-19 | by ( Zachary B. Wolf | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +26 min

They ranged from questions about the Electoral College to specific inquiries about why ballots in some counties look the way they do. We’ll add answers to new questions weekly until the election and also send them out to the What Matters newsletter audience. CNN did not project that President Joe Biden would win the 2020 election until four days after Election Day. -- Linda in WashingtonThere were a lot of questions about the Electoral College, which should frustrate people on both sides of the aisle. I’m not including the election of 1800, even though it resulted in a tie in the Electoral College.

Persons: I’ve, Debbie, Ariel Edwards, Levy, Read, they’ve, Will, Trump, Dennis, Donald Trump, don’t, faithless, Sen, Bernie Sanders of, Ron Paul of Texas, Jeanette, Elon Musk, –, Democrats –, Elena, you’re, that’s, you’ve, Harris, Kamala Harris, CNN’s KFile, it’s, Ron, CNN’s Tami Luhby, Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, George W, Bush, Jennifer Agiesta, what’s, we’re, hasn’t, noncitizens, Critics, doesn’t, Sheila, Nicole Unzicker, Unzicker, Terry I’m, Harvey Let’s, Doug Sosnik’s, Patricia, Al Gore, Rutherford B, Hayes, Samuel Tilden, Tilden, John F, Kennedy, Richard Nixon, James Garfield, Winfield Hancock, I’m, Sandra, Jack Smith, Julie Organizations: CNN, Electoral College, Washington, Puerto Rican, Social Security, Electoral, Library of Congress, Elon, Democrats, Trump, Colorado Presidents, Security, Federal, Republican, Heritage Foundation, Dominion, Senate, White, Democratic, Lumina Foundation, Supreme, eventual, Michigan Trump, Gallup Locations: Florida, Madison, Chad, Virginia, Michigan, Puerto Rico, Guam, Minnesota, Washington, DC, Puerto, Congress, Bernie Sanders of Vermont, Pennsylvania, Colorado, South Carolina, United States, California, Harris, Georgia, North Carolina, . Pennsylvania, Missouri, North Dakota, California , Maryland, Vermont, Washington ,, Ohio, Butler County, Texas, New York, It’s, today’s America, New Hampshire

☆ Pro-Trump forces flood airwaves with ads attacking Harris over past transgender stances
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( Steve Contorno | David Wright | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +12 min

The Trump campaign put nearly $14 million behind the ad in the first two weeks of the month. The Trump campaign disputed the report. As pro-Trump advertisers have put more money behind ads attacking transgender policies, economic messaging has also been a consistent, though shifting, point of emphasis. Harris’ campaign did not respond to a request for comment. President Trump is for you.”Democrats in the presidential race have offered no defensive response.

Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, It’s, CNN’s KFile, Harris, “, ”, Bret Baier, Trump, –, ” Trump, Kamala, Harris ’, Wednesday’s Fox, Terry Schilling, Andy Beshear, Beshear, Glenn Youngkin, Rodrigo Heng, Lehtinen, ” “, ” Heng, wouldn’t, Chris LaCivita, Miriam Adelson –, MAGA, Colin Allred – who’s, Sen, Ted Cruz, Texas –, Ohio Sen, Sherrod Brown, DeWine, Allred, Brown, Schilling, ” Schilling, Heng, Joe Biden, Jennifer Agiesta, Alayna Treene, Kate Sullivan, Kristen Holmes Organizations: CNN, Republicans, Trump, Fox News, New York Times, of Prisons, Fox, Democratic Gov, Republican Gov, statehouse, Virginians, National Center for Transgender Equality, “, Gallup, Democratic Party, ”, Preserve America, Badger State, PAC, Democratic, GOP, White Locations: Washington, Kentucky, Virginia, Wisconsin, Texas, Ohio

The campaign push beginning Friday will take the first lady out west to Arizona and Nevada and through the “blue wall” states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The Harris team is deploying the first lady to smaller, targeted markets to court undecided voters and to city suburbs as they look to mobilize women voters with less than a month until the election, the source said. Her deployments on behalf of Harris are similar to how she was utilized during her husband’s campaign and for Democrats in the 2022 midterms. Harris’ campaign believes there is a fair amount of undecided voters in areas like Yuma, Carson City and Reno that the first lady can try to reach. Read more about the first lady’s campaign swing.

Persons: Jill Biden, Kamala Harris, Harris, Joe Biden’s, Beau Biden, Harris ’, She’s, Read Organizations: CNN, Democratic National Convention, Democrats Locations: Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin , Michigan, Pennsylvania, Yuma, Carson City, Reno

☆ Harris’ border visit and economy speech capture attention as warning signs emerge for campaign
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-06 | by ( Jennifer Agiesta | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

But some emerging trends in the data hint at warning signs for the vice president’s campaign. Looking at what people say they have heard, read or seen about Harris, “lie” has emerged as a persistent top word that some Americans associate with her. “Kamala says nothing,” wrote one respondent included in the latest survey. About 8% in the latest data use the word “lie” or “liar” in relation to Trump. “It has been relatively quiet this week,” one respondent to the latest survey wrote when asked about Trump.

Persons: CNN — Kamala Harris ’, Harris, Donald Trump, they’ve, Trump, ”, “ Kamala, “, Volodymyr Zelensky, they’d, Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, ” CNN’s Ariel Edwards, Levy Organizations: CNN, ABC, Democratic, Georgetown University, University of Michigan, Trump, Republican National Convention, Republicans Locations: Arizona, Pittsburgh, Ukraine

Former President Barack Obama speaks on Tuesday, August 20, in Chicago during the DNC. The Thursday rally in Pittsburgh will be the first in a string of events Obama plans to hold across electoral battlegrounds in the weeks ahead of Election Day, according to a senior Harris campaign official. The 2024 election, in Obama’s view, is an “all hands on deck” moment, aides have said. “I wish I could give you a four- or five-point plan as to how we’re going to win this election. Truthfully, the plan is we’re going to push through it,” he said during the California fundraising event, according to excerpts from his office.

Persons: Barack Obama, Bernadette Tuazon, Kamala Harris, Obama —, Michelle, —, Harris, Obama, solicitations, “, ” Organizations: CNN, Democratic Locations: Chicago, Pennsylvania, Pittsburgh, Los Angeles, California

John King talks with Michigan voters Anushka Jalitsagi and Jade Grey in Ann Arbor, Michigan. “If she comes up short in Michigan, I don’t think it’s because of young voters,” said Gray, a former co-president of the University of Michigan College Democrats who graduated in May. They were crucial to Joe Biden’s 2020 Michigan win and in the dramatic state-level gains the party made in 2022. But young voters’ level of support is a big question for 2024 because of anger and disappointment with how the Biden-Harris administration has handled the Israel-Hamas conflict. Read more about young voters in Michigan.

Persons: John King, Anushka Jalitsagi, Jade Grey, Gray, Kamala Harris, ”, “, Joe Biden’s, Harris, ” Gray, Anushka Jalisatgi Organizations: Michigan, CNN, University of Michigan College Democrats, ” Voters, Democratic, Biden, College Democrats Locations: Ann Arbor , Michigan, Michigan, Israel

☆ CNN Instant Poll: No clear winner in VP debate between Tim Walz and JD Vance
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-02 | by ( Ariel Edwards-Levy | Jennifer Agiesta | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Among debate watchers, Walz remains the candidate who’s seen more positively and as more in touch with their needs and vision for the country. He was also narrowly seen as doing a better job than Walz of defending his running mate. Both men, the poll finds, are viewed by a majority of debate watchers as qualified to assume the presidency if needed. Debate watchers came away from the debate with roughly neutral views of Vance: 41% rated him favorably and 44% unfavorably. Results for the full sample of debate watchers have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5.3 percentage points.

Persons: Tim Walz, JD Vance, SSRS, Walz, Vance, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Trump, Kamala Harris, Harris, That’s, Harris ’ Organizations: CNN, Democratic, Republican, Trump, America

☆ CNN Poll: Harris and Trump are tied in North Carolina, while vice president leads in Nebraska’s 2nd District
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-27 | by ( Ariel Edwards-Levy | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

CNN —Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are tied among likely voters in North Carolina, while Harris holds a comfortable lead in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, according to two new CNN polls conducted by SSRS. In North Carolina, Harris and Trump stand at 48% each among likely voters. In Nebraska’s 2nd District, the so-called blue dot encompassing Omaha, Harris has 53% to Trump’s 42%, the poll finds. An 86% majority of Democratic likely voters and 69% of independent likely voters favor keeping the current system, while 69% of GOP likely voters say they’d rather move to a winner-take-all system in the state. But just 41% in North Carolina say they’re very confident, rising to a 59% majority in Nebraska’s 2nd District.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, SSRS, Mark Robinson, Trump, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, they’ve, White, Biden, Brian Snyder, Josh Stein, Robinson, Stein, Tony Vargas, Don Bacon, Vargas, Bacon, Jim Watson, CNN’s Jennifer Agiesta, Edward Wu Organizations: CNN, Congressional, Gov, Democratic, Trump, North, Nebraska’s, Sun, College, Cornhusker State, Republican, Obama, Biden, Reuters Male, GOP, Republican Rep, Republicans, Getty Locations: North Carolina, Nebraska’s, The, Carolina, Omaha, Nebraska, Maine, Wilmington , North Carolina, Congress, Trump, North Carolina’s, North, Charlotte , North Carolina, AFP, The Nebraska

☆ Black voters: Harris still lags behind Biden’s 2020 margins but new CNN poll suggests she has room to grow support
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( Edward Wu | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

In the latest poll, 79% of Black registered voters say they would definitely vote, up from 68% in the June poll. The poll suggests Trump’s improvements among Black voters relative to 2020 are driven largely by Black voters under the age of 60. Harris is also generally viewed more favorably among Black registered voters compared with registered voters overall, even after accounting for Black voters’ overwhelming Democratic lean. Democratic Black likely voters, however, are twice as likely as Democratic likely voters overall to consider the economy their top issue (42%, compared with 19%). Results among Black registered voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 7.8 percentage points; among Black likely voters, it is plus or minus 7.7 percentage points.

Persons: CNN — Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, SSRS, Joe Biden’s, Black, Trump, CNN’s, Harris, That’s, – Harris, Biden, Joe Biden, Andrew Harnik, don’t, CNN’s Jennifer Agiesta, Ariel Edwards, Levy Organizations: CNN, Trump, CNN’s, Biden, Black, Girard College, Democrats, Democratic Party, Black Democratic, Democratic Black, Democratic, White Americans, Black Americans Locations: Black, Philadelphia , Pennsylvania, United States

☆ CNN Poll: Harris leads Trump among young voters but falls short of Biden’s 2020 winning margin
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( Ariel Edwards-Levy | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

Harris leads Trump 52% to 40% among these likely voters younger than 35. Where female likely voters younger than 35 prefer Harris over Trump, 53% to 39%, male likely voters are closely divided. And among registered voters, young women are 15 points likelier than men to express a positive view of Harris. The CNN Poll was conducted by SSRS online and by telephone September 19-22, 2024, among 2,074 registered voters nationwide drawn from a probability-based panel. Likely voters include all registered voters in the poll weighted for their predicted likelihood of voting in this year’s election.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, Joe Biden, Biden, There’s, Young Trump, Obama, Trump, Trump’s, they’ve, Young, aren’t, Young Harris, CNN’s Jennifer Agiesta, Edward Wu Organizations: CNN, SSRS, Trump, Democratic, Quinnipiac University, Harvard Institute of Politics, Young, GOP, Young Republican, Republican, Democratic Party, Republicans, White, Trump voters

The latest poll finds Harris and Trump roughly even with independent likely voters – Harris at 45% to Trump at 41% - with a gender gap that is centered among independents. Harris is well ahead among likely voters younger than 30 (55% support her to 38% who favor Trump), and among Black (79% Harris to 16% Trump) and Latino (59% Harris to 40% Trump) likely voters. Likely voters overall say they trust Trump over Harris to handle the economy (50% Trump to 39% Harris), immigration (49% Trump to 35% Harris) and foreign policy (47% Trump to 40% Harris). Likely voters generally favor Harris’ approach on abortion and reproductive rights (52% Harris to 31% Trump), uniting the country (43% Harris to 30% Trump), and protecting democracy (47% Harris to 40% Trump). Likely voters include all registered voters in the poll weighted for their predicted likelihood of voting in this year’s election.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, SSRS, Libertarian Chase Oliver, Jill Stein, Trump, Harris ’, That’s, Joe Biden, – Harris, outpacing Trump, Trump’s, Tim Walz, Ohio Sen, JD Vance, Hillary Clinton, Clinton Organizations: CNN, Trump, Libertarian, Green Party, Democratic, Independent, White, Minnesota Gov, Voters, Republican

☆ CNN Flash Poll: Majority of debate watchers say Harris outperformed Trump onstage
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Ariel Edwards-Levy | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

CNN —Registered voters who watched Tuesday’s presidential debate broadly agree that Kamala Harris outperformed Donald Trump, according to a CNN poll of debate watchers conducted by SSRS. The vice president also outpaced both debate watchers’ expectations for her and Joe Biden’s onstage performance against the former president earlier this year, the poll found. Debate watchers said, 63% to 37%, that Harris turned in a better performance onstage in Philadelphia. That June debate was a rare presidential debate win for Trump: In 2020 and 2016, Biden and Hillary Clinton were seen by debate watchers as outperforming him across the presidential debates. Results for the full sample of debate watchers have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5.3 percentage points.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, SSRS, Joe Biden’s, Harris, Trump’s, Trump, Biden, Hillary Clinton, Harris ’, CNN’s Jennifer Agiesta Organizations: CNN, Trump, Democratic, Republican Locations: Philadelphia, Trump, Harris

☆ The methodology behind The Breakthrough polling project
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-30 | by ( Jennifer Agiesta | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

CNN —The Breakthrough is a project from CNN, Georgetown University, the University of Michigan, SSRS and Verasight. Each week, 1,000 Americans are asked to share what they have seen, read or heard about major presidential candidates in their own words. Results from the two surveys are combined using SSRS’s Encipher Hybrid methodology for blending probability and non-probability samples. Respondents have also been asked the same question about Biden since the start of the project. To develop topics, topic words are manually identified and augmented with words and topics identified using a combination of Noiseless Latent Dirichlet Allocation (NLDA) and Guided Topic-Noise Model (GTM).

Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Robert F, Kennedy, Jr, Harris, Biden, Lisa Singh, Josh Pasek, Michael Traugott, Budak, RoBERTa pretrained, Jennifer Agiesta, Ariel Edwards, Levy, Edward Wu, Dana Elobaid, Le Bao, Yanchen Wang, Mohamed Ahmed, Akilah Evans, Hope Wilson, Cameron McPhee, Peter K, Enns, Gretchen Streett, Amelia Goranson, Jake Rothschild Organizations: CNN, Georgetown University, University of Michigan, Massive Data, Technical, Science Locations: Verasight

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