China’s official count 0 2.5 million 83,150 deaths Model based on Shanghai outbreak 1.6 million deaths LOW ESTIMATE HIGH ESTIMATE Estimate using travel patterns 970,000 deaths Estimate using recent testing data 1.5 million deaths Estimate based on U.S. death rates 1.1 million deaths China’s official count 0 2.5 million 83,150 deaths Model based on Shanghai outbreak 1.6 million deaths LOW EST. But China’s official Covid death toll for the entire pandemic remains strikingly low: 83,150 people as of Feb. 9. Four separate academic teams have converged on broadly similar estimates: China’s Covid wave may have killed between a million and 1.5 million people. Why official data underrepresents China’s outbreak83,150 deaths China’s official count on Feb. 9 0 2.5M 83,150 deaths China’s official count on Feb. 9 0 2.5 millionChina has a narrow definition of what counts as a Covid-19 death. But the work was unwavering in its ultimate conclusion: Ending the “zero Covid” policy was likely to overwhelm the health care system, producing an estimated 1.6 million deaths.

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