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U.S. government bond yields have surged too, puzzling many market participants. I am going to stick with the contrarian view and bet on rates continuing to move higher. I'll express that through a bearish bet on the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) which tracks bond prices. Various inputs have driven yields higher, creating the opposite outcome for the Fed as they continue to try to land the proverbial plane. Jeffrey Gundlach stated (post Fed meeting) that interest rates could shoot even higher if Republicans end up controlling the House too.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Jeffrey Gundlach, Jerome Powell, TLT Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury Bond ETF, Fed, Treasury, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed will likely cut rates again in December, says DoubLine Capital's Jeffrey GundlachJeffrey Gundlach, DoubleLine Capital CEO and CIO, joins CNBC's 'Closing Bell' to discuss his reaction to the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by a quarter point.
Persons: DoubLine Capital's Jeffrey Gundlach Jeffrey Gundlach Organizations: DoubleLine, Federal
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey GundlachJeffrey Gundlach, DoubleLine Capital CEO and CIO, joins CNBC's 'Closing Bell' to discuss his reaction to the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by a quarter point.
Persons: Jeffrey Gundlach Jeffrey Gundlach Organizations: DoubleLine Capital, DoubleLine, Federal
DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said Thursday that interest rates could shoot higher if Republicans end up controlling the House, securing a governing trifecta that gives President-elect Donald Trump free rein to spend as he pleases. "If the House goes to Republicans, there's going to be a lot of debt, there's going to be higher interest rates at the long end, and it'll be interesting to see how the Fed reacts to that," Gundlach said on CNBC's "Closing Bell." The race to control the House is undecided as of Thursday after Republicans clinched their new Senate majority. "So it looks to me that there will be some pressure on interest rates, and particularly at the long end. Still, Gundlach, who had predicted a recession in the U.S., said the Trump presidency makes such an economic downturn less likely.
Persons: Jeffrey Gundlach, Donald Trump, there's, Gundlach, Trump Organizations: DoubleLine, Republicans, Senate, Federal, Trump Locations: U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDoubleLine Capital CEO: Fed is more worried about employment than inflationJeffrey Gundlach, DoubleLine Capital CEO, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 50 basis-points, the impact to treasury markets, and more.
Persons: Jeffrey Gundlach Organizations: DoubleLine
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDoubleLine Capital CEO: Bond market is concerned about longer-term inflationCNBC's Steve Liesman and Jeffrey Gundlach, DoubleLine Capital CEO, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 50 basis-points.
Persons: Steve Liesman, Jeffrey Gundlach Organizations: DoubleLine
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDoubleLine Capital CEO: The long end of bond market doesn't want the Fed to be easing aggressivelyJeffrey Gundlach, DoubleLine Capital CEO, joins CNBC's 'Closing Bell' to discuss his reaction to the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 50 basis-points, economic outlooks, and more.
Persons: Jeffrey Gundlach Organizations: DoubleLine, Federal
DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said Tuesday that the Federal Reserve needs to ease policy swiftly amid the current economic slowdown, seeing a half-point interest-rate reduction this week. A quarter-point rate cut had been the consensus as recently as a week ago. But the 2-year Treasury yield was last at around 3.59%. The size of the Fed's first rate cut in years has been a point of debate on Wall Street. On the one hand, a rate cut could help boost earnings growth for companies following a period of high borrowing costs and stubborn inflation.
Persons: Jeffrey Gundlach, Gundlach, CNBC's Scott Wapner Organizations: DoubleLine, Federal Reserve, Treasury Locations: Huntington Beach , California, United States
Central bank policymakers have kept their target interest rate at 5.25% to 5.5% for the past year, creating a yield bonanza for investors in money market funds, certificates of deposit and Treasury bills. Gundlach, speaking on CNBC's " Closing Bell " on Wednesday, said he sees the Fed enacting as much as 150 basis points worth of rate cuts in the next year, or 1.5 percentage points, which would lower the fed funds rate to 3.75% to 4.00%. As interest rates come down, cash, short-dated instruments and floating-rate debt will also see lower yields, translating to less income for investors, he added. In lieu of those bank loans, investors may want to consider migrating toward BB-rated, fixed-rate high yield bonds — high-yield issues, he said. State Street offers the SPDR Portfolio High Yield Bond ETF (SPHY) .
Persons: Jeffrey Gundlach, Jerome Powell, Gundlach Organizations: Federal, BB, Corporate Bond, SEC, State Street, Investors Locations: Central
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach: There's a lot of room for the Fed to cut short-term interest ratesJeffrey Gundlach, DoubleLine Capital CEO, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the Fed rate decision and Chair Powell's dovish comments.
Persons: DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach, Jeffrey Gundlach, Powell's Organizations: Fed, DoubleLine
Fed should've cut today, says DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach
  + stars: | 2024-07-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed should've cut today, says DoubleLine's Jeffrey GundlachJeffrey Gundlach, DoubleLine Capital CEO, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the Fed rate decision and Chair Powell's dovish comments.
Persons: DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach Jeffrey Gundlach, Powell's Organizations: DoubleLine
The timing of cuts from the Federal Reserve is looking uncertain, but fixed income investor Jeffrey Gundlach has a way to play the theme: BB-rated bank loans. Playing the bank loans space The actual bank loans themselves are made by lending institutions to companies. Rather, large institutional investors snap them up and add them to their fixed income portfolios. The Fed's rate policy presents another wrinkle for bank loans: These loans have a floating coupon rate component. Accessibility through ETFs A fixed income sleeve should include exposure to high-quality bonds.
Persons: Jeffrey Gundlach, We've, Gundlach, FFRHX, Collin Martin Organizations: Federal, SEC, Schwab Center, Financial Research, Exchange, Blackstone Senior Loan Locations: BlackRock
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey GundlachJeffrey Gundlach, DoubleLine Capital CEO, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss his reaction to the Fed being hawkish, but leaving rates unchanged.
Persons: Jeffrey Gundlach Jeffrey Gundlach Organizations: DoubleLine Capital, DoubleLine
A bond fund run by two of the top names at DoubleLine is outpacing the broader market by being defensive without fully committing to an imminent recession. The DoubleLine Opportunistic Bond ETF (DBND) has a total return of 3.2% over the past year. That's more than the broadest bond funds, such as the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) , and the category indexes for the ETF as determined by FactSet and Morningstar. "Given where yield levels are, you're paid relatively well just to be in the higher credit quality," Sherman said.
Persons: Morningstar, Jeffrey Sherman, Jeffrey Gundlach, Sherman, Bonds, it's Organizations: Bond, Aggregate Bond, FactSet, SEC, CNBC, Federal Reserve Locations: DoubleLine, Treasurys
Middle managers are becoming an endangered species in Corporate America, with some companies viewing the role as obsolete , writes Business Insider's Lindsay Dodgson. Remote work, tech efficiencies, and a general push to cut costs have contributed to middle managers' demise. It's a strategy Corporate America, particularly Big Tech, deployed in 2023. The "year of efficiency," as Mark Zuckerberg dubbed it, was all about flattening organizations, and middle managers were the ones getting squished . The death of middle managers could also fuel the current dismantling of another cohort: the middle class .
Persons: , Brooks Kraft, Insider's Lindsay Dodgson, millennials, Gen Zers haven't, Robyn Phelps, they're, Mark Zuckerberg, Gen, Jeffrey Gundlach, we're, Blackstone, Abanti Chowdhury, Jensen Huang, Hopper, Blackwell, Lilit, Tyler Le, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Service, Business, Brooks Kraft LLC, Getty, America, Big Tech, Citi, Street Journal, KKR, Meta, Google, Nvidia, Paragon Intel, National Association of Realtors, FAA Locations: Corporate America, millennials, New York, London
Read previewPrepare for a recession to strike and companies to collapse as stubborn inflation and sticky interest rates take their toll, Jeffrey Gundlach warned. The economy will suffer a prolonged downturn this year or next, the billionaire investor told Fox Business on Tuesday. Persistently higher rates will drive some companies to ruin and tank the wider economy, he predicted. "I think that higher for longer is going to lead to a recession," Gundlach said. "You're not going to take out Tesla necessarily — they might have other problems, but it's not going to be because of interest rates.
Persons: , Jeffrey Gundlach, Gundlach, Tesla, it's Organizations: Service, Fox Business, Business, DoubleLine
Enter the closed-end fund, a relative of the traditional, open-end mutual fund. Gundlach highlighted closed-end funds on CNBC's " Closing Bell " Wednesday afternoon, noting that it's "a pretty good environment for moderate risk assets." "For retail investors, closed-end funds have gone back to trading at discounts broadly, and with some leverage involved there, there's double-digit yields available without taking a ton of credit risk," he said. Searching for discounts Drivers of these closed-end fund discounts, particularly those that hold bonds, include sharp spikes in yields. The Abrdn National Municipal Income Fund (VFL) , for instance, is trading at a 15% discount to its net asset value, according to Nuveen's CEF Connect, a database of closed-end funds.
Persons: Jeffrey Gundlach, Gundlach, Eaton Vance Organizations: Income Fund, Income Trust, Fidelity Locations: Eaton Vance California
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach: The base case for 2024 now is one rate cutDoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss his reaction to the Fed's meeting and decision to leave rates unchanged.
Persons: Jeffrey Gundlach
DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said Wednesday that he now sees no more than one interest rate cut this year as the Federal Reserve keeps policy tight to fight stubborn inflation. "The inflation rate clearly is the one that is lacking progress as [Jerome Powell] put it, so I'm going to lean on one rate cut," Gundlach said on CNBC's " Closing Bell." "Higher for longer … seems like the mantra continues, but without a rate hike. Treasury yields dropped to their session lows and stocks shot to session highs as Powell said the next policy move will not be a rate increase. "I think it's unlikely that the next policy rate move will be a hike.
Persons: Jeffrey Gundlach, Jerome Powell, Gundlach, Powell Organizations: DoubleLine, Federal Reserve, Treasury
The US government's ballooning interest payments are eating a hole in its budget, they said. "We are headed toward record spending levels, record deficit levels, record debt levels, record interest payments — the list goes and on," Maya MacGuineas, the president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, told Fox Business this week. While the US isn't at imminent risk of that kind of chaos, bond markets could "snap back" if the government's interest payments soar to $1 trillion in 2026 as expected, Swagel said. AdvertisementHowever, she noted that some experts on Wall Street were "incredibly worried" about the national debt and interest payments. DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach has also sounded the alarm on debt payments.
Persons: , MacGuineas, Philip Swagel, Liz Truss, Swagel, bitcoin, Jim Rogers, George Soros, He's, Jeffrey Gundlach Organizations: Investors, Service, Federal Budget, Fox Business, Congressional, Office, Financial Times, Bank of, CBO, Wall, DoubleLine
Jeffrey Gundlach compared the AI-fueled boom in stocks to the dot-com bubble. DoubleLine Capital's billionaire CEO predicted sticky inflation and an economic slump. Two other market gurus, Bill Gross and John Hussman, warned of extreme stock valuations this week. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementJeffrey Gundlach has warned the AI-crazed stock market reminds him of the dot-com bubble — and predicted a painful mix of stubborn inflation and economic decline lies ahead.
Persons: Jeffrey Gundlach, Bill Gross, John Hussman, Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, Business
Here's a roundup of recent recession warnings from six experts:This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase CEOAdvertisementThere's a long history of investors being caught off guard by sudden downturns, Dimon told CNBC this week. AdvertisementSteve Hanke, Johns Hopkins professorThe US economy is headed for a recession if history is any indication, Hanke told Business Insider this week. AdvertisementPaul Dietrich, B. Riley Wealth Management's chief investment strategist"We're still on the path to recession," Dietrich told Business Insider in a recent interview. AdvertisementJeffrey Gundlach, DoubleLine Capital CEO"I think recession is closer than most people think," Gundlach said in a recent YouTube video.
Persons: , Jamie Dimon, There's, Dimon, David Solomon, Goldman Sachs, Solomon, Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley's, Zentner, Steve Hanke, Johns Hopkins, Hanke, Paul Dietrich, Riley Wealth, We're, Dietrich, Jeffrey Gundlach, Gundlach Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, JPMorgan, CNBC, UBS, DoubleLine Locations: American, Russia, Ukraine, Israel
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Disco is backOthers have also started to compare today's market and the 1970s' "Nifty Fifty." AdvertisementJPMorgan's Chief Global Strategist Marko Kolanovic also said in a note on Wednesday that fiscal spending and inflation could resemble the 1970s landscape. Similar to the 1970s, there are currently 3 active geopolitical conflict zones – eastern Europe, Middle East, and South China Sea," Kolanovic said. Kolanovic included in his note the chart below, which shows the correlation between inflation and the performance of the S&P 500.
Persons: , Albert Edwards, Bank of America's Michael Hartnett, Jeffrey Gundlach, Cole Smead, Smead, Sears Roebuck, Alphabet's, Nvidia's, Microsoft's, Jeremy Siegel, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, " Rosenberg, Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic Organizations: Service, Societe Generale, Bank of America's, Treasury, Nasdaq, DoubleLine, Investments, Business, Morningstar, Microsoft, Nvidia, Xerox Locations: Europe, Middle East, South China
The Leading Economic Index fell for the 22nd consecutive month in January. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. The Leading Economic Index brings all of those together to gauge the future state of the economy across multiple dimensions, from growth and unemployment to consumer demand and homebuilding. Here's a screenshot showing the index's historic decline, from The Conference Board's latest release:AdvertisementThe Leading Economic Index has consistently declined ahead of previous recessions. There's no guarantee these four market veterans are right about the Leading Economic Index.
Persons: , Here's, joblessness, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Jeremy Grantham, Jeffrey Gundlach, Gary Shilling, There's Organizations: Service, Business, Conference Board, Treasury, Manufacturers, Institute, Supply, The Conference, Board, Rosenberg Research, North, DoubleLine, Conference Locations: North American
So there's a totally different valuation metric now," Gundlach said at the Exchange ETF conference. The prior bull market for stocks peaked about two years ago, with the S & P 500 hitting a record high on Jan. 3, 2022. .SPX 5Y mountain The S & P 500's previous bull market rally topped out in early 2022. Gundlach also said he would allocate 10% or so in real assets, such as gold. Gundlach has warned repeatedly that a soft landing or " goldilocks " outcome for the U.S. economy is unlikely.
Persons: Jeffrey Gundlach, Gundlach, DoubleLine, Morgan Stanley, Berkshire Hathaway Organizations: Exchange ETF, CNBC, Tesla, Vanguard, Berkshire Locations: Japan, India, U.S
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