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☆ Smialek: The Fed is thinking about how President-elect Trump's policies may impact inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSmialek: The Fed is thinking about how President-elect Trump's policies may impact inflationNew York Times Fed and economy reporter Jeanna Smialek discusses what to expect from Fed policy under a second Trump administration.

Persons: Jeanna Smialek, Trump Organizations: New York Times Fed

☆ Smialek: When we hit these turning points in the Economy, the labor market is the first thing to go.
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSmialek: When we hit these turning points in the Economy, the labor market is the first thing to go. Jeanna Smialek, New York Times, mention when the markets expect the central bank to begin easing policy next month with investors largely focusing on how big and for how long the Fed will go with those cuts.

Persons: Jeanna Smialek Organizations: Jeanna Smialek , New York Times Locations: Jeanna Smialek ,

☆ Fed Chair Powell Signals ‘Time Has Come’ for September Rate Cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

Speaking in his most closely watched speech of the year, Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, clearly signaled that the central bank was poised to cut interest rates in September. And while Mr. Powell stopped short of giving a clear hint at just how large that move might be, he forcefully underscored that the central bank stands prepared to adjust policy to protect the job market from weakening further and to keep the economy on a path for a soft landing. “The time has come for policy to adjust,” Mr. Powell said during the Kansas City Fed’s annual conference at Jackson Hole in Wyoming. “The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”He then added: “We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability.”

Persons: Jerome H, Powell, Mr Organizations: Federal Reserve, Kansas City, Jackson Locations: Kansas, Wyoming

Despite the gloom about grocery costs, food price increases have generally been cooling for months. A central issue has plagued the Biden administration for most of its term: the steep rise in grocery prices. Despite the gloom about grocery costs, food price increases have generally been cooling for months. Image Several economists said they expected to see grocery inflation remain around current rates in the coming months. Grocery inflation remains a major political issueHigh food costs continue to pose a political challenge for the Biden administration.

Persons: Biden, Donald J, Trump, ”, David Ortega, Ortega, “ We’re, Mr, Jessica Attie, Omair Sharif, Sharif, Kamala Harris, Christopher B, Barrett, Jerlyn, “, Heisz Organizations: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, Investors, Republican, White, Workers, Michigan State University, The New York Times, Agriculture Department, KPMG, Democratic, PepsiCo, Cornell University Locations: Ukraine, Platteville, Wis

Signs of a slowing U.S. economy sowed panic among investors on Monday, with a sell-off in markets that began last week turning into a global rout. The moves were a sharp reversal in major stock markets, which for much of the past year have risen to new heights, propelled by optimism about cooling inflation, solid labor markets and the promise of artificial intelligence technology. South Korea’s benchmark Kospi index fell more than 10 percent at one point. Japanese stocks have been on a tear for more than a year, fueled by a weak Japanese yen. Adding to the pressure, foreign investors have started selling off positions in Japanese stocks over the last few weeks.

Persons: ”, Andrew Brenner, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Jordi Basco Carrera, ’, Basco Carrera, Jitters, Jesper Koll, Koll, John Liu, Melissa Eddy Organizations: Federal, Nasdaq, National Alliance Securities, Equity, Technology, Samsung Electronics, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Nvidia, Intel, Allianz, Monex, Bank of Japan, Tokyo Stock Exchange Locations: Asia, Europe, Americas, Japan, U.S, Taiwan, Singapore, Australia, Hong Kong, China, Stocks, India, Netherlands, Switzerland, New York, Munich, “, New, Seoul, Berlin

☆ Traders Wonder if the Fed Could Make an Emergency Rate Cut as Markets Tumble
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | More About Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

As turmoil swept through global financial markets on Monday, fueled by concerns that the economy is headed for a hard landing, investors began to speculate that the Federal Reserve could jump in to cushion the fallout with an emergency interest rate cut. The Fed considers emergency cuts — ones that occur outside of its regularly scheduled meetings — for extreme situations. Joblessness rarely rises sharply outside of an economic downturn. The data fueled serious concerns that Fed officials have fallen behind on adjusting their policy stance. The risk is that Fed policymakers might have choked off demand too much for too long, causing a slowdown in the labor market that will begin to snowball into wider economic pain.

Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: United States

For now, Fed officials think the ongoing slowdown in hiring and a recent tick up in joblessness suggest the labor market is returning to normal after a few years of booming hiring. But while that approach is cautious when it comes to price increases, it could prove to be risky when it comes to the labor market. But that chain reaction can come at a serious cost to the job market. For now, Fed officials think that the ongoing slowdown in hiring and a recent tick up in joblessness signal that labor market conditions are returning to normal after a few years of booming hiring. Fed rate moves take time to work, so if the central bank only starts to cut borrowing costs when the job market is showing serious signs of strain, it could be moving too late.

Persons: ” Jerome H, Powell, Mr, Neil Dutta, ” Mr, “, ” Organizations: Federal Reserve, Macro Locations: joblessness, “

☆ Fed Will Scour Jobs Report for Signs of Weakness
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-02 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve officials held off on cutting interest rates this week because they want slightly more data to feel confident that inflation is truly coming under control. But while that approach is cautious when it comes to price increases, it could prove to be risky when it comes to the labor market. High Fed interest rates help to cool inflation by slowing demand in the economy. And as inflation comes down, Fed policymakers are increasingly attuned to the risk that they might overdo it, tipping the economy into a severe enough slowdown that it pushes unemployment higher and leaves Americans out of work. Those concerns were not enough to prod central bankers to cut interest rates at their meeting this week.

Organizations: Federal

☆ Trump Promises Lower Interest Rates, but the President Doesn’t Control Those
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-01 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

Former President Donald J. Trump, the Republican candidate for the 2024 presidential race, promised lower interest rates — which a president does not actually control — if he is elected. Asked on Wednesday what he would do on “Day 1” of a new presidency during a panel at the National Association of Black Journalists convention in Chicago, Mr. Trump said one priority would be to “drill, baby, drill,” the shorthand tagline he has adopted for promoting oil and gas production in the United States. “I bring energy way down, I bring, interest rates are down, I bring inflation way down,” Mr. Trump expanded. The president exerts no direct control over interest rates. The Federal Reserve sets a key policy rate, which then trickles out to influence borrowing costs across the economy, and the Fed is independent from the White House.

Persons: Donald J, Trump, “, ” Mr Organizations: Republican, National Association of Black Journalists, Federal Reserve Locations: Chicago, United States

☆ Politics Makes the Fed’s Job Trickier, but Doesn’t Drive Its Decisions
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-31 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The Fed is expected to start cutting rates in mid-September, not long before voters in the United States head to the polls to elect a new president. Central bankers will meet about rates again on Nov. 6-7, just days after the election. If they lower interest rates before the vote, there is a risk that Republicans will cast it as a politicized move meant to help Democrats: Lower borrowing costs can bolster the economy and markets. Former President Donald J. Trump, the Republican nominee, has already said the Fed should not be cutting rates leading up to November. But central bankers have been clear that they plan to set interest rates with an eye on inflation and job market data, while trying to ignore the election entirely.

Persons: Donald J, Trump Organizations: Federal, Republican Locations: United States

☆ What to Watch as the Fed Meets on Wednesday
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-31 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Economists and traders widely expect Fed officials to cut their policy rate at their next meeting, in September. Wall Street will closely watch for any hints about the future in both the Fed’s statement at 2 p.m. and a subsequent news conference with Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the central bank. And Mr. Powell is sure to face questions about how officials are thinking about the potential for moves after that. Watch the Fed’s statement for changes. The Fed’s statement, a slowly changing document that officials release after each two-day meeting, currently states that Fed policymakers expect to hold rates steady until they have “gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably” down.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Federal

It’s been a year since interest rates reached a two-decade high, but they may soon begin to reverse course. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold its benchmark interest rate steady on Wednesday, while signaling that a cut is possible when policy-setting officials meet again in September. If interest rates are elevated for too long, they risk weakening the employment picture. The central bank uses interest rates to influence the broader economy. Home-equity lines of credit and adjustable-rate mortgages — which each carry variable interest rates — generally rise within two billing cycles after a change in the Fed’s rates.

Persons: It’s, ” Jonathan Smoke, that’s, Freddie Mac, ”, Sam Khater, —, “ Banks, Ken Tumin Organizations: Federal, “ Manufacturers, Cox Automotive, Treasury, Savings Vehicles Locations: Edmunds

How the election is dividing techThe tech world has long been divided by rivalries: Macs versus PCs, open source versus closed source. It’s a reminder, as DealBook has noted, that Silicon Valley’s libertarian wing is feeling more emboldened to flex its money and influence to buck what has become a traditionally Democratic consensus. Who’s who: Some of the most vocal Democratic donors among the tech elite are Hoffman; Vinod Khosla, the venture capitalist; Aaron Levie, the C.E.O. On the Republican side are a camp of libertarians that includes Musk and the investors Peter Thiel, David Sacks, Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz. Then there are those staying neutral, including Mark Zuckerberg of Meta, who are ostensibly trying to avoid antagonizing whoever wins in November.

Persons: Elon Musk, Reid Hoffman, Ryan Mac, Erin Griffith, Mike Isaac, DealBook, Who’s, Hoffman, Vinod Khosla, Aaron Levie, Roger McNamee, Peter Thiel, David Sacks, Marc Andreessen, Ben Horowitz, Mark Zuckerberg, Meta Organizations: Republican

☆ Is the Labor Market About to Crack? It’s the Key Question for the Fed.
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-30 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

David Gurley Jr.’s bank account benefited from a hot pandemic labor market. Mr. Gurley, a video game programmer, switched jobs twice in quick succession, boosting his salary and nabbing a fully remote position. But when it comes to the outlook now, “it seems like things are more or less OK,” Mr. Gurley, 35, said. Mr. Gurley’s experience — a rip-roaring labor market, then a wobbly one and now some semblance of normality — is the kind of postpandemic roller-coaster ride that many Americans have encountered. Now economic officials are trying to figure out whether the labor market is settling into a new holding pattern or is poised to take a turn for the worse.

Persons: David Gurley Jr, Gurley, Mr Organizations: Federal Reserve

☆ Fed’s Preferred Inflation Number Cooled Overall in June
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-26 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure continued to gradually cool overall in June even as a “core” inflation measure held steady, likely keeping the central bank on track for a rate cut later this year without stoking any urgency for a reduction at its meeting next week. A “core” price measure that strips out food and fuel costs for a better sense of the underlying inflation trend proved more stubborn. Yearly core inflation was 2.6 percent, matching its reading in May. And on a monthly basis, both measures of inflation climbed modestly. Overall, the report served as a reminder that inflation is substantially lower than it was at its 2022 peak, but is not yet entirely vanquished.

☆ 2025 Could Be a Great Time to Be President, Economically Speaking
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-25 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

As that happens, the Federal Reserve is preparing to cut interest rates. A huge burst of infrastructure spending under the Biden administration has taken time to ramp up, but projects both small and large are likely to break ground in earnest in 2025 and 2026. One clear answer: It won’t be the person who shepherded some of the policies that are laying the positive groundwork. President Biden announced on Sunday that he was ending his candidacy for re-election, passing the Democratic baton to Vice President Kamala Harris. White House officials play a relatively minor role in slowing inflation and exert no direct control over interest rates.

Persons: Biden, Kamala Harris, Mr, Biden isn’t Organizations: Federal Reserve, Democratic, Semiconductor Locations: U.S, stoke

Shortly after the Biden administration took office in 2021, Vice President Kamala Harris started calling the chief executives of large banks, including JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America. The federal government was making hundreds of billions of dollars available for banks to lend to small businesses to keep them afloat during the pandemic recession. Ms. Harris told the executives they needed to be lending more, faster, particularly to minority-owned businesses that data suggested were struggling to gain access to the money. The calls represented one of the earliest and most visible forays Ms. Harris made in devising and carrying out the Biden administration’s economic agenda, and illustrated the sort of economic policy niche that she has filled as vice president. Current and former administration officials, progressive leaders outside the White House and allies of Ms. Harris roundly agree that the vice president, who is now the leading candidate to secure the Democratic presidential nomination, did not play a major role in the creation of the sweeping economic legislation that has defined President Biden’s time in office.

Persons: Biden, Kamala Harris, Harris, Biden’s Organizations: JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Biden, White House, Democratic

A key question after an assassination attempt on former President Donald J. Trump a week ago is why the Secret Service excluded from its secured zone a nearby warehouse the gunman used for his assault. But another possible flaw in the Secret Service’s plans for the campaign rally at the farm show grounds in Butler, Pa., is emerging. The protection agency expected the sizable contingent of officers from local law enforcement agencies to contain any threats outside of the secured zone but assigned almost all those officers to work inside it, according to numerous interviews with local law enforcement and municipal officials. More specifically, the local law enforcement officials say that none of them were assigned to safeguard the complex of warehouses just north of the farm show grounds. The gunman was able to use the roof of the warehouse closest to the stage — about 450 feet from the podium — from which to shoot.

Persons: Donald J, Trump Organizations: Service, Pennsylvania State Police, Police Department, Butler County Sheriff, Pittsburgh, of Police Locations: Butler, Pa, Butler County

☆ Trump Shooting Live Updates: Lawmakers Assail Decision to Let Rally Go Ahead
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-18 | by ( The New York Times | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +12 min

But the Secret Service, the agency charged with protecting Mr. Trump, did not stop him from taking the stage. Eight minutes after Mr. Trump started to speak, Mr. Crooks fired off bullets that left the Republican presidential nominee bloodied and a rally visitor dead. Image Secret Service snipers surveilling the surrounding area before Mr. Trump began to speak. But that created a blind spot, outside the security perimeter but well within rifle range of Mr. Trump. Mr. Crooks also typed in “major depressive disorder” and searched for dates and places for appearances for both Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump.

Persons: Donald J, Trump, — Thomas Matthew Crooks, Crooks, Eric Lee, Marsha Blackburn, Biden, Alejandro N, Mayorkas, Kimberly A, Cheatle, Butler, Kristian Thacker, ”, Richard Goldinger, General Merrick B, Garland, Christopher A, Wray, Trump’s, Crooks’s, Pittsburgh’s WTAE, Doug Mills, Mr, —, Edward Natali, Crooks “, Natali, “, bloodying, Corey Comperatore, Eduardo Medina, Jeanna Smialek, Chelsia Rose Marcius, Mark Walker, John Ismay, William K Organizations: Service, Republican, Secret, New York Times, Secret Service, Biden Sunday . Homeland, ABC News, The New York Times, The Times, AGR International, Mr, Police Department Locations: Butler, Pa, Tennessee, ” Butler County, Bethel Park, Butler County, Washington, New York

Trumponomics and the FedOne of the hot debates on Wall Street this election cycle is how Donald Trump would deal with the Fed if he is re-elected and, in particular, if he would fire or demote Jay Powell as chair, The Times’s Jeanna Smialek writes for DealBook. In an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek conducted before last weekend’s assassination attempt, Trump said that he did not plan to fire Powell, allowing him to serve out his term. Trump appointed Powell, but turned on him over interest rate policy. The former president was displeased when the central banker refused to cut rates to bolster economic growth. President Biden reappointed Powell to a new four-year term that started in 2022.

Persons: Donald Trump, Jay Powell, Smialek, Trump, Powell, it’s, Biden Organizations: Bloomberg Businessweek, Trump

But the Secret Service, the agency charged with protecting Mr. Trump, did not stop him from taking the stage. Image Secret Service snipers surveilling the surrounding area before Mr. Trump began to speak. But that created a blind spot, outside the security perimeter but well within rifle range of Mr. Trump. was able to finally access Mr. Crooks’s cellphones and other electronic devices, agents could see that he had searched for images of Mr. Trump as well as President Biden, Attorney General Merrick B. Garland and even F.B.I. Mr. Crooks also had at typed in “major depressive disorder” and searched for dates and places for appearances for both Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump.

☆ Biden Policies Offer Benefits, but Little Political Payoff, in Pennsylvania
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-15 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | Alan Rappeport | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Construction crews have been removing barrels of toxic waste, knocking down crumbling walls and salvaging rusted tin roofing as they prepare to convert the cavernous space into an events venue, advanced manufacturing hub and brewery. The estimated $25 million project is the most ambitious undertaking the Erie County Redevelopment Authority has ever attempted. It was both kick-started and remains heavily funded by various pots of money coming from Biden administration programs. It is one example of a larger problem Mr. Biden faces in Pennsylvania, a swing state that could decide the winner of the 2024 election. In places like Erie, a long-struggling manufacturing hub bordering the Great Lake that is often an election bellwether, Mr. Biden is struggling to capitalize on his own economic policies even when they are providing real and visible benefits.

Persons: Biden’s, Mike Kelly, Biden Organizations: Erie County Redevelopment Authority, Biden, Pennsylvania Republican Locations: Erie, Pa, Erie County, Pennsylvania

☆ Trading Free-Market Ideals for Protectionism, G.O.P. Goes Full Trump
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-15 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | Ana Swanson | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Donald J. Trump’s presidency was a major turn away from the Republican Party’s long embrace of free-market economics. If the Republican platform is any indication, a second Trump term would be a near-complete abandonment. The platform does not directly mention fiscal deficits, and, apart from curbing government spending, it does not make any clear and detailed promises to rein in the nation’s borrowing. Other policies it proposes — including cutting taxes and expanding the military — would most likely swell the nation’s debt. The Republican platform also does not mention exports or encouraging trade.

Persons: Donald J, Trump’s Organizations: Republican, Trump, Republican National Convention Locations: Milwaukee

☆ Fed’s Powell Welcomes Cooler Inflation but Steers Clear of Rate Cut Timing
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-15 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, avoided sending a clear signal about when the central bank would begin to cut interest rates even as he welcomed a recent cool-down in inflation. “Today I’m not going to be sending any signals one way or the other on any particular meeting,” Mr. Powell said while speaking at the Economic Club of Washington on Monday. “Just to ruin the fun right at the beginning.”The Fed’s chair was speaking after several inflation reports in a row suggested that price increases were moderating in earnest, a development that had spurred some economists to think that it could make sense for officials to cut interest rates sooner rather than later. The Fed meets at the end of July and then again in September, and investors have been largely expecting that officials will begin to lower borrowing costs at the September meeting. Economists at Goldman Sachs wrote in a research note on Monday that cutting rates this month could be appropriate, given how much inflation had come down.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell, I’m, ” Mr, “, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Federal Reserve, Economic, of Washington, Fed, Goldman

The city of Butler, a blue-collar town that was built on steel, has been trying to get a foothold economically in recent years after struggling to reinvent itself following a loss of industry in recent decades. Home to about 13,000 people, the city is perched on the banks of Connoquenessing Creek, about a 50-minute drive northeast of Pittsburgh. But the county that the city sits within has been changing over time, becoming both more educated and more prosperous. Broader Butler County’s population of nearly 200,000 remains about 95 percent white, according to the Census Bureau, but the nonwhite share of the population has been slowly growing. The county has been becoming more heavily educated — about 38 percent of adults there now have a bachelor’s degree, slightly higher than the 34 percent average nationally.

Organizations: Census Locations: Butler, Connoquenessing, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

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