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☆ Keep buying the 'Trump trades' through inauguration, Societe Generale says
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-14 | by ( Hakyung Kim | In Hakyungkim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Cryptocurrencies and banks have been on a tear since President-elect Donald Trump's victory last week, and Societe Generale thinks these "Trump trades" have more room to run into January. The firm specifically underscored bank stocks, companies exposed to the reshoring theme, small-cap names and crypto. "Trump trades are in full bloom and should continue to outperform until Inauguration Day, in our view," U.S. chief economist Stephen Gallagher wrote in a Thursday research note. Gallagher is not the only one on Wall Street who thinks the "Trump trade" has more legs. Societe Generale said its Trump 2.0 thematic basket has jumped more than 7% in the week since the election, but it is only up 15% in 2024, compared to the S & P 500 's 25% year-to-date gains.

Persons: Donald Trump's, Stephen Gallagher, Russell, bitcoin, Gallagher, Jason Draho Organizations: Societe Generale, Trump, US, US Banks, SG Global, Wall, UBS Locations: US

☆ A 'Roaring '20s' economy is becoming more likely as bullish factors stack up, UBS says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

UBS predicts a "Roaring '20s" economy, assigning a 50% chance to such an expansion by 2030. Solid data revisions, along with Fed rate cuts, support the optimistic outlook. "It's no longer too soon nor too optimistic to suggest that the US will experience a Roaring '20s economy," UBS said. AdvertisementA slew of bullish factors suggest the economy could be headed towards "Roaring '20s" status, according to a Monday note from UBS. Advertisement"The bread crumbs suggest a policy reaction function that is directionally supportive of a Roaring '20s outcome," Draho said of the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's full employment goals.

Persons: —, UBS's, Jason Draho, Draho, Jerome Powell's Organizations: UBS, Service, Treasury, Atlanta, CPI

☆ Big Tech drawing dip buyers again, but some investors say diversification is prudent move
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The tech slide has many investors anxious to buy the dip, but now is the time for caution, some say. Communication services and information technology stocks are the two worst-performing S & P 500 sectors this quarter, after having fallen into a correction from their peaks in July. Communication services is more than 11% off its 52-week high, while information technology is more than 12% off its recent high. For much of this year, any dips in the high-flying tech stocks have proven to be a buying opportunity for investors, as the promise of artificial intelligence has traders unable to stay away from these names for long. Investors were buying the dip again midday through the trading session Tuesday.

Persons: Ken Mahoney, We've, Rob Williams, Williams, Savita Subramanian, Jason Draho, CNBC's, Tesla Organizations: Federal Reserve, Asset Management, Sage Advisory, Bank of America, UBS Global Wealth Management, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia

☆ 'Babies tossed out with the bath water': Why top strategists aren't scared during the wildest market since March 2020
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Related storiesWhile those concerns served as the kindling, it was the July jobs report that sparked terror. A closer look at the jobs report reveals that while job additions underwhelmed, jobless claims were also minimal. AdvertisementSecond-quarter earnings growth has been impressive so far and seems set to rise by low single digits, according to UBS GWM. The bullish strategy chief remarked in a note Monday that six of the 11 market sectors have enjoyed double-digit earnings growth this quarter, while only three have seen declines. "Such sell-offs can offer an opportunity to 'catch babies tossed out with the bath water,'" Stoltzfus wrote.

Persons: —, Oppenheimer, Jonathan Golub, Oppenheimer Jason Draho, Americas Solita Marcelli, Marcelli, Beryl, Draho, That's, David Lefkowitz, John Stoltzfus, Stoltzfus Organizations: Service, Business, UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management, Labor, UBS GWM Locations: Americas

☆ The big rotation trade is from cash to stocks - and it could help push the S&P 500 up 17% by year-end, UBS says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-23 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

UBS said a major rotation from cash and bonds into stocks could happen later this year. UBS' Jason Draho reiterated his bull case for the S&P 500 to rise 17% into year-end. AdvertisementThe cash-to-stocks trade is the more durable rotation investors should be watching, UBS said. "We still recommend that investors position for lower rates, seek quality growth stocks, and seize the AI opportunity," Draho said. There will be a rotation trade in that scenario, but from cash and bonds into stocks," Draho said.

Persons: Jason Draho, —, there's, Draho, it's Organizations: UBS, Service, Federal Reserve

☆ It finally looks like the US economy is sticking its soft landing
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-05 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

A soft landing is on the horizon, too — or already here depending on who you ask — and recent data reinforces that. AdvertisementThere has been a ton of moderation in this rate particularly when comparing recent changes to those seen in 2022, another sign pointing to a soft landing. AdvertisementThe soft landing might already be hereDavid Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, believes the US has already achieved a soft landing. "To me, a soft landing is when the unemployment rate has basically hit its full-employment level, and the inflation rate is gradually coming down to a rate that's acceptable," Kelly said. Advertisement"In other words, a fairly comfortable soft landing with occasional turbulence," Draho added.

Persons: —, That's, it's, Joseph Briggs, Goldman Sachs, Briggs, Nick Bunker, Bunker, David Kelly, Kelly, Jason Draho, Draho, It's Organizations: Service, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, North America, UBS, Morgan Asset Management, UBS Global Wealth Management

☆ From a melt-up to a sell-off, the next 2 weeks will determine the stock market's direction for the summer
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-13 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The next two weeks of data will likely set the direction for the stock market this summer, according to UBS. The bank said the upcoming release of the April CPI report and Nvidia's earnings report next week are crucial. "Inflation and NVIDIA earnings data that exceed expectations could set the stage for an early summer melt-up," UBS said. AdvertisementThe next two weeks are going to be crucial for the stock market and could determine its direction over the upcoming summer months, according to a note from UBS. Advertisement"Inflation and NVIDIA earnings data that exceed expectations could set the stage for an early summer melt-up," Draho said.

Persons: —, Jason Draho, Draho, bode Organizations: UBS, NVIDIA, Service

☆ No reason for the Fed to cut if the economy is holding up at these higher rates: UBS' Jason Draho
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNo reason for the Fed to cut if the economy is holding up at these higher rates: UBS' Jason DrahoJason Draho, UBS Global Wealth Management head of asset allocation Americas, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends ahead of the opening bell on Wednesday.

Persons: Jason Draho Jason Draho Organizations: Fed, UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management

☆ Small caps will get a tailwind from market broadening, says UBS' Jason Draho
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSmall caps will get a tailwind from market broadening, says UBS' Jason DrahoMarc Pinto, Janus Henderson Investors head of Americas equities, and Jason Draho, UBS Global Wealth Management head of asset allocation Americas, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.

Persons: Jason Draho Marc Pinto, Janus Henderson, Jason Draho Organizations: UBS, Janus Henderson Investors, UBS Global Wealth Management

☆ Stock futures are little changed after Nasdaq Composite retreats from record: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-04 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) during morning trading on March 4, 2024 in New York City. U.S. stock futures were little changed Monday night after the Nasdaq Composite retreated from its record high. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked down 59 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 futures inched down 0.1%, while Nasdaq-100 futures fell 0.2%. During Monday's main trading session, the S&P 500 dropped 0.12%, and the tech-forward Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.41%.

Persons: Dow, Jason Draho, CNBC's, They're, Draho, there's Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, GitLab, Nvidia, Micro Computer, Apple, European Commission, UBS Global Wealth Management, Target, Nordstrom, P Global US Services, Services Locations: New York City . U.S

☆ 4 reasons why Wall Street fears that Nvidia's hard-earned gains could go up in smoke
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-27 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

In the last 15 months, Wall Street analysts have hailed generative AI as the most impactful innovation in decades and compared its theoretical impact to that of the internet. While the full impact of AI isn't clear yet, companies are under immense pressure to convince investors that they're not falling behind. "We can't envision any of these large cloud companies or consumer companies pulling back on AI spending anytime soon," Colello said. UBS"This is not always a harbinger of slowing revenue growth and a concentrated H200/B100 launch could be adding to near-term opex," Arcuri wrote in a recent note. AdvertisementDespite what Nvidia's recent performance suggests, Wall Street is notoriously tough to please.

Persons: —, Morgan Stanley, Steve Sosnick, Wedbush's Dan Ives, who's, Marcelli, they're, Sosnick, Brian Colello, Colello, They're, we're, Vivek Arya, Arya, Michael Landsberg, Landsberg, Jason Draho, Draho, Timothy Arcuri, Arcuri Organizations: Service, Wall Street, Business, Nvidia, Interactive, Bulls, Bank of America, Wedbush Securities, UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management, Morningstar, Landsberg Bennett, Wealth Management

☆ Fed rate hikes are creeping back into the conversation
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-21 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. AdvertisementExperts maintain that any hikes this year are unlikely, but say it's notable how they have creeped back into the policy conversation once again. "You can't say zero probability for something to break in the event of another rate hike," Jason Draho, head of asset allocation in the Americas for UBS Global Wealth Management, told Business Insider. "That last mile [of inflation] will be harder to obtain," Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise Financial's chief market strategist, told Business Insider. "The Fed's erring on the side of hawkishness," Hunter told Business Insider.

Persons: —, Larry Summers, Summers, Jason Draho, you'd, Goldman Sachs, Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise, Paul Mielczarski, Mielczarski, Ameriprise's Saglimbene, Andrew Hunter, Hunter Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, PPI, Fed, Former, Bloomberg, Traders, UBS Global Wealth Management, Capital Economics Locations: Americas, OER, Brandywine, hawkishness

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Signs the U.S. stock market rally is broadening from the so-called Magnificent Seven of mega-cap growth and technology companies is bolstering investor hopes for a rally through year-end. In one encouraging sign, about 55% of the S&P 500 were trading above their 200-day moving averages as of Monday. Among other signs, the equal-weight S&P 500 (.SPXEW) -- a proxy for the average stock in the index -- rose 3.24% last week. The equal-weight S&P 500 is trading at a 5% discount to its 10-year average forward price-to-earnings ratio, according to Edward Jones. Still, there are reasons to think that the market rally is not on the verge of a sustained broadening.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Adam Turnquist, Meta, Russell, Mona Mahajan, Edward Jones, ” Mahajan, Steve Sosnick, Jason Draho, David Randall, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Megan Davies, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, LPL, Microsoft, Nasdaq, Interactive Brokers, UBS Global Wealth Management, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Treasuries

☆ Buy quality fixed income, sell credit risk fixed income: UBS Global Wealth Management's Jason Draho
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBuy quality fixed income, sell credit risk fixed income: UBS Global Wealth Management's Jason DrahoJason Draho, UBS head of asset allocation, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss his market moves and Fed expectation.

Persons: Jason Draho Jason Draho Organizations: UBS Global Wealth, UBS

☆ Recession will hit the US in 2024 – so get ready for massive interest-rate cuts, UBS says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Federal Reserve will slash interest rates by an eye-popping 275 basis points next year, according to UBS. UBS expects a mid-2024 recession to encourage the central bank to start easing. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementThe US economy will slip into recession next year – and that'll lead to the Federal Reserve bringing in steep interest-rate cuts, according to one top European bank. The Fed's cuts would be "a response to the forecasted US recession in Q2-Q3 2024 and the ongoing slowdown in both headline and core inflation," UBS added.

Persons: That's, —, it's, Arend Kapteyn, Bhanu Baweja, UBS's, Jason Draho Organizations: Federal, UBS, Service, Federal Reserve, Fed

☆ The US economy may be reliving the 'roaring '20s' – and that means growth, inflation, and rates will all stay high, UBS says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

That could set the stage for a "roaring '20s" decade, according to UBS. Higher growth, inflation, and interest rates could come to define the period, the Swiss bank said. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe economy's surprising resilience this year could set the stage for a new "roaring '20s" decade of growth, according to UBS. AdvertisementAdvertisementHigher GDP growth, inflation, bond yields, and interest rates would be the main features in a "roaring '20s outcome" for the economy, the strategists added. AdvertisementAdvertisement"A higher stock-bond correlation will make multi-asset portfolios more volatile, a consequence compounded by higher inflation volatility," UBS said.

Persons: —, UBS's, Americas Jason Draho Organizations: UBS, Service, Treasury, Americas, Stocks Locations: Swiss

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Stock investors see green light in falling Treasury yields
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The relationship between stocks and bonds has been a tight one in recent months, with equities falling as Treasury yields climbed to 16-year highs. Higher yields offer investment competition to stocks while also raising the cost of capital for companies and households. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has surged nearly 6% from its October lows. Draho expects the S&P 500 to trade between 4,200 and 4,600 until investors determine whether the economy will be able to avoid a recession. The S&P 500 was recently up more than 1% on the day.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jason Draho, Draho, Ryan Detrick, Greg Wilensky, Janus Henderson, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Louise Heavens Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Treasury, UBS Global Wealth Management, National Association of Active Investment, CFRA Research, Carson Investment Research, Fed, Apple Inc, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Treasuries

☆ Michael Farr says investors should look at 'beaten up' stocks like Disney and Medtronic
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMichael Farr says investors should look at 'beaten up' stocks like Disney and MedtronicUBS’ Jason Draho and Hightower’s Michael Farr, join 'Power Lunch' to discuss how investors should position in a volatile bond market.

Persons: Michael Farr, Jason Draho, Hightower’s Michael Farr Organizations: Disney, UBS

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Investors lower outlook for consumers as student loans, credit card debts pile up
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"The U.S. consumer is on thin ice coming into the final stretch of 2023," said Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. Further declines in the labor market will likely act as a double-edged sword for investors, relieving some inflation pressures while weighing on consumer spending. Overall consumer spending rose slightly more than expected in August, while the savings rate fell to its lowest since November 2022, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. Betting against the consumer spending has so far been a losing wager. (This story has been corrected to say BNY Mellon Investment Management, not BNY Mellon, in paragraph 10)Reporting by David Randall; editing by Megan Davies and Andy SullivanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Caitlin Ochs, Nordstrom, Macy's, Emily Roland, Jake Jolly, Gregory Daco, Young, Jason Draho, Sandy Villere, Mellon, David Randall, Megan Davies, Andy Sullivan Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Apollo Group . Department, John Hancock Investment Management, of Labor Statistics, Commerce Department, BNY Mellon Investment Management, Treasury, Ernst, Atlanta Fed's, UBS Global Wealth Management, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Villere, Thomson Locations: New York City, Russia, Ukraine, New York, U.S

☆ Investors are betting that rate cuts are coming early next year. Here's what market experts are urging you do right now to cash in when rates do fall.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-18 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

10-year Treasury yields are surging as the economy stays hot. For the first time since 2007, 10-year yields rose above 4.3% on Thursday after seeing a 31% surge since April. If or when that eventually happens, Treasury yields are likely to follow, presenting those who hold the assets with an opportunity. Bond yields fall when demand for the assets rise, pushing up their price. David Kelly, the chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, sees 10-year rates averaging 3.7% in the years ahead.

Persons: Gautam Khanna, Jason Draho, Lawrence Gillium, Craig Brothers, Brothers, Leslie Falconio, David Kelly, Kelly Organizations: Wall, Insight Investment, UBS Global Wealth, LPL, Bel Air Investment Advisors, Morgan Asset Management, Monopoly, Treasury Locations: Treasurys

☆ A recession is only delayed as the economy continues to lose steam. Here's exactly how 8 top strategists and money managers recommend investing in this turbulent market.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-16 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

Now, the inverse has happened as stocks rally, inflation steadily falls, and the labor market stays healthy. By any historical measure, this is still a really strong labor market," he said. "There's a lot of market concern — understandably so — about the sustainability of the strong labor market," Porter said. "There are clear signs that we're weakening at the margin," Schurmeier said of the labor market. "And they're able to thread the needle on the other part of their mandate, which is the labor market."

Persons: John Porter, Jason Draho, Porter, David Lebovitz, Lebovitz, they're, Draho, Jonathan Curtis, Curtis, Brent Schutte, Schutte, Jake Schurmeier, Schurmeier, they'll, shouldn't, Charles Lemonides, Lemonides, Greg Calnon, Calnon, Franklin Equity Group's Curtis, he's Organizations: Newton Investment Management, UBS Global Wealth, Asset Management, Franklin Equity Group, Workers, Northwestern, Harbor Capital Advisors, Fed, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Franklin Equity

☆ 'I've seen this show before': A renowned market bear who called the dot-com bubble warns a recession is still barreling toward the US economy — and stocks are due to suffer as misguided optimism fuels
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-08 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

There's a fairly simple way to characterize Societe Generale strategist Albert Edwards' latest note to clients. Bears are boys who cried wolf (recession), and investors are the shepherd who have become sick of the ongoing warnings and have stopped heeding their calls. Societe GeneraleAll of this optimism is likely a mistake, Edwards said as he doubled down on his recession call. In an May note, Edwards said "recession is a done deal," citing The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, which has been at recessionary levels for months now. The indicators takes into account variables like manufacturing activity, stock performance, consumer confidence, housing market activity, and bond market activity.

Persons: Albert Edwards, Edwards, downgrades, —, I'm, Michelle Cluver, Jason Draho, Neil Dutta, Ian Shepherdson Organizations: Societe Generale, Bears, Generale All, Generale, Investors, Bureau of Labor Statistics, X, Federal Reserve, UBS, Macro

☆ This is where to find hot yields in July, according to UBS
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Now's the time to focus on fixed income over equities, according to UBS. Yet some fixed income products are more attractive than others right now. Mortgage-backed securities UBS calls mortgage-backed securities a "unique" opportunity in fixed income. Preferred securities Banks and financial institutions issue the majority of preferred securities , which have characteristics of both stocks and bonds. UBS recently upgraded preferred securities to most preferred.

Persons: it's, Frank Sileo, Jason Draho, Sileo, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: UBS, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, AAA

Source: NYSEThe majority of Wall Street investors believe stocks have entered a new bull market and the U.S. economy will skirt a recession in 2023, according to the new CNBC Delivering Alpha investor survey. Zoom In Icon Arrows pointing outwardsSixty-one percent of respondents believe the market has entered a new bull run, while 39% think this is a bear market rally. Technically speaking, some have already declared a brand new bull market after the S&P 500 met the most simplistic standard by closing up 20% from its October bear market low. However, many investors do not consider it the end of a bear market until the S&P 500 reaches a new high. The S&P 500 is about to end the first half with flying colors, up nearly 15% after four straight winning months in a row.

Persons: Carol Schleif, Jason Draho Organizations: NYSE, Wall, CNBC Delivering Alpha, CNBC, BMO Family Office, UBS Global Wealth Management Locations: U.S

☆ Stock futures rise slightly as the market nears the end of quarter and first half: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures rose slightly in overnight trading Wednesday as the market approaches the end of the second quarter and the first half of 2023 with solid gains. S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.3%. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 closed near the flatline as investors digested Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's latest comments about the tightening cycle. For the month of June, the S&P 500 is up 4.7%, on pace for its best monthly performance since January. In the second quarter, the equity benchmark has gained 6.5%, on track for its third positive quarter in a row.

Persons: Dow, Jason Draho, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Pablo Hernández de Cos Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Micron Technology, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Federal, UBS Global Wealth Management, European Central Bank, Bank of Spain, Traders Locations: Madrid

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