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Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen with a currency exchange rate graph in this illustration picture taken June 16, 2022. The yen eased to 149.83 per dollar, its weakest in more than 11 months, moving ever closer to the 150 mark that some traders believe could prompt intervention by Tokyo to support the currency. "If the yen breaks 150 per dollar, which I think is likely, and verbal intervention is not followed by action then we could see dollar-yen at 155." In the broader currency market, sterling was last 0.4% lower at $1.2158, having slid nearly 4% against the dollar in the third quarter. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar slid 0.6% to $0.6395, while the New Zealand dollar edged 0.4% lower to $0.5972, as traders looked ahead to rate decisions from their respective central banks this week.

Persons: Florence Lo, Dane Cekov, Shunichi Suzuki, Jarrod Kerr, Nordea's Cekov, bitcoin, Samuel Indyk, Rae Wee, Shri Navaratnam, Simon Cameron, Moore, Emelia, Alex Richardson Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Bank of Japan, Bank of Japan's, Finance, Congress, Democratic, Australian, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Britain, U.S

☆ Buoyant dollar pushes fragile yen to within striking distance of 150
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Photo taken on April 20, 2022 shows the Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes in Tokyo, Japan. The dollar kicked off the last quarter of the year on the front foot on Monday as the prospect of higher-for-longer U.S. rates provided solid support, pushing the yen to an 11-month low. Sterling was last 0.13% lower at $1.2188, having similarly slid nearly 4% against the dollar in the third quarter. "This puts the 1 November FOMC meeting back on the table as a potential venue for a further 25-basis-point rate hike." Elsewhere, the Australian dollar fell 0.07% to $0.64305, while the kiwi edged 0.1% lower to $0.59925.

Persons: Olivier d'Assier, Jarrod Kerr, Sterling, Kiwibank's Kerr, Chris Weston Organizations: U.S, Congress, Democratic, U.S . Labor Department, CPI Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, Australia, China

☆ Dollar slips as Fed's rate-hike cycle seen ending
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

A foreign currency dealer counts US dollar notes at a currency market in Karachi on July 19, 2022. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell left the door open to another hike in September, traders were unconvinced, sending the U.S. dollar broadly lower. Sterling steadied at $1.2935, having eked out a slight gain against the dollar in the previous session. A dovish pivot from the Fed will likely exert a downward pressure on the U.S. dollar in the medium term." BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda was quoted as saying at a key government meeting on Wednesday that the central bank will maintain accommodative monetary conditions for companies.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Sterling steadied, Emin Hajiyev, Nadia Gharbi, Kazuo Ueda, Jarrod Kerr Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, U.S, Insight Investment, ECB, Pictet Wealth Management, Bank, Australian, Reserve Bank of Australia, Communist Party Locations: Karachi, U.S

☆ New Zealand central bank to hold rates in July and for rest of 2023: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The economy is forecast to weaken further as the impact of 525 basis points of RBNZ rate rises becomes more visible. All 25 economists polled by Reuters July 3-6 expected the RBNZ to hold the official cash rate (OCR) (NZINTR=ECI) at 5.50% on July 12. It would be the first time the RBNZ has not raised rates at a policy meeting in nearly two years. The central bank raised rates in May but signalled it was done tightening. Over 90% of economists pollled, 23 of 24, did not predict any changes to rates this quarter.

Persons: Jarrod Kerr, pollled, Nick Tuffley, Devayani Sathyan, Susobhan Sarkar, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley, Kim Coghill Organizations: Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Reuters, ANZ, ASB, Bank of New, Kiwibank, Westpac, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, Bank of New Zealand

☆ New Zealand central bank to hold rates in July and for rest of 2023, Reuters poll shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The economy is forecast to weaken further as the impact of 525 basis points of RBNZ rate rises becomes more visible. All 25 economists polled by Reuters July 3-6 expected the RBNZ to hold the official cash rate (OCR) (NZINTR=ECI) at 5.50% on July 12. It would be the first time the RBNZ has not raised rates at a policy meeting in nearly two years. The central bank raised rates last month but signalled it was done tightening. Over 90% of economists pollled, 23 of 24, did not predict any changes to rates this quarter.

☆ New Zealand's economy likely in recession as rate hikes take hold
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Lucy Craymer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WELLINGTON, June 13 (Reuters) - The New Zealand central bank’s aggressive hiking of the cash rate likely pushed the country into a technical recession in the first quarter, a Reuters poll found, giving traction to the idea the cash rate may have peaked. This would mean the country moved into a technical recession - two consecutive quarters of negative growth - after the economy contracted by 0.6% in the fourth quarter. New Zealand's central bank last month signalled it was done tightening after raising rates by 25 basis points to the highest in more than 14-years at 5.5%, ending its most aggressive hiking cycle since 1999. Yet a handful of economists think the boost to the economy from historically high migration and the return of tourism might force the central bank to do more. He said he expects the next cash rate move to be a cut.

Persons: ”, Jarrod Kerr, Cyclone Gabrielle, Brad Olsen, Lucy Craymer, Lincoln Organizations: Gross, Reserve Bank of New, “, Treasury, Reserve Bank, Zealand, Thomson Locations: Zealand, Auckland

☆ Dollar eases after jump in U.S. jobless claims; Fed in focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

An employee deals with U.S. one-hundred dollar banknotes at a bank on June 16, 2022 in Hai an, Nantong City, Jiangsu Province of China. The dollar retreated on Friday, dragged down by lower U.S. Treasury yields after a spike in weekly jobless claims raised hopes that a peak in U.S. interest rates was near, as the focus turned to the upcoming week packed with central bank meetings. Against the Japanese yen , the greenback dipped to a one-week low of 138.765, tracking a slide in U.S. Treasury yields. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield last stood at 3.7317%, after falling 7 basis points on Thursday. So that'll show up in payrolls numbers and jobless claims and these sorts of numbers," said Jarrod Kerr, chief economist at Kiwibank.

Persons: Jarrod Kerr, Tayyip Erdogan, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Mohammed Elmi Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Federated Hermes Locations: Hai, Nantong City, Jiangsu Province, China, Asia, U.S, Kiwibank, United States

☆ Dollar retreats on jump in US jobless claims; eyes on Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The two-year yield , which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, steadied at 4.5210%. So that'll show up in payrolls numbers and jobless claims and these sorts of numbers," said Jarrod Kerr, chief economist at Kiwibank. The Fed takes centre stage, with money markets leaning toward a pause, though have priced in a 25% chance that the U.S. central bank delivers a 25bp rate hike. "A slowing U.S. economy gives the Fed room to pause after 500bp of consecutive interest rate rises," said Guillermo Felices, global investment strategist at PGIM Fixed Income. The Canadian dollar last bought C$1.3365, not far from its one-month high of C$1.3321 hit on Wednesday, while the Aussie similarly stood near a roughly one-month peak at $0.6711.

Persons: Jarrod Kerr, Guillermo Felices, Thursday's, Rae Wee, Sam Holmes Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Fed, Reuters, ECB, Canadian, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, U.S, Kiwibank

☆ Investors relieved after US House votes to suspend debt ceiling
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Asian markets were trading higher when the bill cleared the house and held their gains. Treasury yields rose marginally. The bill would suspend the federal government's borrowing limit until 2025, allowing the Treasury to sell debt to pay its obligations. Two-year Treasury yields rose 2.7 basis points to 4.417%, while currency markets were broadly steady. Debt ceiling concerns periodically weighed on stock markets over the last week, although most investors expected an 11th-hour agreement.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Joe Biden's, Ray Attrill, Biden, Brad McMillan, Jarrod Kerr, Caroline Valetkevitch, Kevin Buckland, Rae Wee, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio, Lincoln Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Investors, U.S . House, Senate, Republican, National Australia Bank, Treasury, White, Commonwealth Financial Network, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Tokyo, Singapore

☆ Investors relieved after US House votes to suspend debt ceiling; focus turns to Senate
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Persons: Joe Biden's, Ray Attrill, Biden, Brad McMillan, Jarrod Kerr, Caroline Valetkevitch, Kevin Buckland, Rae Wee, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio, Lincoln Organizations: Investors, U.S . House, Senate, Republican, National Australia Bank, Treasury, White, Commonwealth Financial Network, Thomson Locations: U.S, Tokyo, Singapore

The narrowing rate differentials between the U.S. and Europe, as markets price in more European rate increases than in the U.S., has been boosting European currencies in recent months. The Fed has guided markets away from the possibility of rate cuts this year, though markets are pricing them in nonetheless. The European Central Bank announces its rate decision later in the day. "So I think central banks, including the Fed, are at or very near the peak in their cash rates." The Norwegian crown took a short trip after Norway's central bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected.

☆ Dollar falls after Fed signals pause; banking woes dent confidence
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"Additional tightening may be needed ... but the FOMC does not appear to be pre-committing to another rate hike on June 14." The U.S. dollar index was last 0.12% lower at 101.11, after dropping more than 0.6% in the previous session. "There are a lot of concerns in the U.S. around the banking sector and the crunch on credit. "So I think central banks, including the Fed, are at or very near the peak in their cash rates." The European Central Bank (ECB) comes under the spotlight next, where expectations are for ECB policymakers to raise interest rates for the seventh meeting in a row later on Thursday.

☆ Dollar loses steam after jobless claims data, while Kuroda takes center stage in Asia
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

An employee deals with U.S. one-hundred dollar banknotes at a bank on June 16, 2022 in Hai an, Nantong City, Jiangsu Province of China. The yen held steady in early Asia trade, and was last 0.2% higher at 135.89 per dollar, retreating from a nearly three-month low hit earlier in the week. Nonetheless, the jump in jobless claims was enough to cause traders to unwind some bets that U.S. rates would rise much higher than previously expected. The Fed funds rate is projected to peak just below 5.5% by July. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.12% to 105.12 but remained on track for a weekly gain of nearly 0.6%.

The yen was last down about 0.15% at 136.36 after a knee-jerk plunge of as much as 0.62% after the BOJ kept policy unchanged in Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's final policy meeting before retirement. Despite some volatility against the yen, the U.S. dollar was mostly flat on Friday. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index was little changed at 105.28 but remained on track for a weekly gain of 0.73%. The focus now turns to the closely watched nonfarm payrolls report later on Friday, the next major data point that could offer clues on the Fed's next steps for monetary policy. According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 205,000 jobs in February after surging by 517,000 in January.

☆ Disasters lower outlook for New Zealand interest rate rise
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-20 | by ( Lucy Craymer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Then on Feb. 12 to 15 a cyclone hit the North Island, which includes Auckland. When Cyclone Gabrielle hit, picking had just begun on pip-fruit farms, whose production is worth about NZ$1 billion a year. That would normally be a reason for a central bank to lift interest rates further, but some economists expect the RBNZ to look past the sudden rise as being temporary. Still, Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr said the central bank should pause hikes until the effect of the cyclone can be understood. After the Christchurch earthquake, the central bank cut its policy rate due to concerns about the economy.

☆ Dollar climbs on higher rate expectations, Aussie slides on jobs shock
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"Overall, some weakness indicated by the report ... probably caused markets to pare back some of the interest rate rises pencilled in for the RBA rate hikes." Meanwhile, U.S. retail sales rebounded sharply in January after two straight monthly declines, driven by purchases of motor vehicles and other goods, the U.S. Commerce Department said on Wednesday. There's very strong labour market data coming through, and the consumers are well supported," said Jarrod Kerr, chief economist at Kiwibank. The retail sales data came just a day after U.S. figures showed inflation slowing but still sticky. This added to signs that further hefty BoE interest rate hikes are unlikely.

☆ Dollar wobbles near eight-month low ahead of c.bank meetings
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, Jan 26 (Reuters) - The dollar held close to an eight-month low against its peers on Thursday, as a gloomy U.S. corporate earnings season stoked recession fears and as traders stayed on guard ahead of a slew of central bank meetings next week. Trading was thin, with Australia out for a holiday and some parts of Asia still away for the Lunar New Year. "There are now signs the U.S. economy may be slowing in a more meaningful manner," said economists at Wells Fargo. Ahead of that, the Commerce Department is due to release advance estimates of U.S. fourth-quarter gross domestic product later on Thursday. Meanwhile, markets expect policymakers at the Bank of England and European Central Bank (ECB), which will also meet next week, to deliver 50 bps rate hikes.

☆ Dollar near eight-month low ahead of c.bank meetings
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, Jan 26 (Reuters) - The dollar lolled near an eight-month low against its peers on Thursday, as a gloomy U.S. corporate earnings season stoked recession fears and as traders stayed on guard ahead of a slew of central bank meetings next week. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, last stood at 101.53, languishing near last week's eight-month trough of 101.51. "There are now signs the U.S. economy may be slowing in a more meaningful manner," said economists at Wells Fargo. "With the Fed no longer leading the charge on interest rate hikes and U.S. economic trends set to worsen, we now believe the U.S. dollar has entered a period of cyclical depreciation against most foreign currencies." Markets expect policymakers at the Bank of England and European Central Bank (ECB), who will also meet next week, to deliver 50 bp rate hikes.

☆ Dollar near eight-month low ahead of central bank meetings
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar kept trade-sensitive currencies pinned near multi-year lows on Monday and the euro was under pressure as investors sought safety due to worries about slowing global growth. The dollar lolled near an eight-month low against its peers on Thursday, as a gloomy U.S. corporate earnings season stoked recession fears and as traders stayed on guard ahead of a slew of central bank meetings next week. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, last stood at 101.53, languishing near last week's eight-month trough of 101.51. Markets expect policymakers at the Bank of England and European Central Bank (ECB), who will also meet next week, to deliver 50-bp rate hikes. Elsewhere, the Canadian dollar last traded at 1.3393 per dollar, after the Bank of Canada on Wednesday raised its key interest rate to 4.5% but became the first major central bank fighting global inflation to say it would likely hold off on further increases for now.

☆ Aussie jumps, kiwi slumps after inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, Jan 25 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar jumped to a more than five-month high on Wednesday after inflation data came in hotter than expected, while the kiwi slipped after New Zealand's fourth-quarter inflation rose less than what its central bank had forecast. The euro held near a nine-month peak against the dollar, as traders weighed a rosier growth outlook for the euro zone sagainst growing signs of a looming U.S. recession. Meanwhile, the kiwi slid nearly 0.6% to $0.6469, after New Zealand's annual inflation of 7.2% in the fourth quarter came in below its central bank's 7.5% forecast. Data on Tuesday showed that euro zone business activity made a surprise return to modest growth in January, indicating the downturn in the bloc may not be as deep as feared. Policymakers are committed to taming inflation, but are split on the size of moves beyond February's likely half-a-percentage point increase.

Her successor as Labour leader and prime minister faces a stern test in a general election in October, with support for the party falling and the country expected to fall into a recession next quarter. Despite her high global profile, Ardern's Labour Party has slid in the polls, hurt by rising living costs, growing crime and concern about social issues. That meant that even with traditional coalition partner the Green Party, polling at 9%, Labour could not hold a majority. Ardern most likely stepped down to give the Labour Party a chance to refresh and reposition itself ahead of an election in October, experts said. CONSERVATIVES BUOYEDThe conservative National Party may be buoyed by Ardern's resignation.

☆ Dollar solidly bid on Fed view, economic resilience; yen eyes weekly gain
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Sterling was just a touch higher at $1.2038 having slumped to a three-week low of $1.1993 overnight. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased less than expected last week, pointing to a still-tight labour market, data released on Thursday showed. BOJ SURPRISEThe yen was marginally lower at 132.39 per dollar on Friday, but was on track for its third largest weekly gain this year of more than 3%. "Japan's inflation figures will be closely scrutinised from here on," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Elsewhere in Asia, the Chinese offshore yuan rose slightly to 7.0038 per dollar.

☆ Dollar steady after strong U.S. data, yen set for weekly gain
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The euro was up slightly against the dollar, standing 0.16% higher at $1.061, after slipping less than 0.1% on Thursday. Yet the Japanese currency was on track for a weekly gain of around 3% after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) tweaked a key bond market policy earlier this week. The Japanese currency jumped almost 4% on Tuesday - its biggest daily rise since 1998 - after the BOJ changed a key policy, making Japanese assets look more attractive. "Getting to 130 (yen per dollar) is certainly possible," said Erik Nelson, macro strategist at Wells Fargo. Nelson said that low trading volumes going into the holidays were causing currencies to fluctuate more than usual.

☆ Dollar falters as investors challenge Fed's hawkishness
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The kiwi fell 0.05% to $0.6456, though it was similarly not far off the six-month peak of $0.6513 it hit this week. The 50 bp increase marked a downshift after four consecutive 75 basis point rate hikes. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index was last 0.02% higher at 103.68, after touching a six-month low in the previous session. Fed funds futures also show that markets are expecting U.S. rates to peak just under 5% by May next year. Elsewhere, the Aussie was last 0.05% lower at $0.6860, while the dollar slipped 0.06% against the Japanese yen to 135.40.

☆ Dollar slips on recession fears, c.bank meetings loom
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Against the greenback, the euro rose nearly 0.5% overnight and edged toward a six-month peak hit at the start of the week. It was last 0.23% higher at $1.0579, and is on track for a third straight week of gains. Sterling similarly eked out a small gain overnight and last rose 0.23% to $1.22695, not far off Monday's six-month high of $1.2345. An inversion of this yield curve is typically a precursor to recession.

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