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Japan is one stock market outside the U.S. that could win now that Donald Trump is headed back to the White House. Trump has previously proposed tariffs of up to 20% on imports, with a stringent tax of 60% on goods coming from China. Japanese stocks rallied, however, as the yen weakened with some investors expecting the U.S. defense partner stands to gain most from Trump's policies. However, Akutsu warned, with few positive earnings surprises in the market, a year-end rally could be "limited in scope." Takada said investors may have to weigh the near-term benefits of a Trump market against the risks of a possible trade war, even with a rise in the Japanese equity risk premium.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Goldman Sachs, Tony Pasquariello, What's, Pasquariello, America's Masashi Akutsu, Akutsu, Morgan's Masanari Takada, Takada, It's Organizations: Nikkei, Bank, Bank of America, Hitachi, Retailing, Trump Locations: Japan, China, U.S, Europe
As Japanese stocks plummet, confirming a bear market, there are opportunities in small-cap and domestic-focused companies, according to fund manager Richard Kaye. 'Yen is just getting normal' Kaye believes the Yen's appreciation is a return to normalcy rather than an anomaly. "If you look even on Friday in all the bloodbath, domestic names, small cap names [were] actually outperforming," he noted. Indeed, the MSCI Japan Small Cap index has fallen 8.6% since July 11, outperforming the 14.4% decline in the MSCI Japan index on a local currency basis. In U.S. dollar terms, the losses, while proportionate, are smaller, with ETFs such as the iShares MSCI Japan Small-Cap ETF falling by 2.1% compared to the iShares MSCI Japan ETF, which is down 8.9% over the same period.
Persons: Richard Kaye, Kaye, Yen, CNBC's, They've, Warren, sayonara, I've Organizations: Growth, Toyota, Sony, U.S ., Japan ETF, Kobe, U.S, Mitsubishi, Mitsui, Sumitomo Locations: Comgest, Japan
Investors looking for stock investments on the cheap should look abroad, according to Schroders investment strategist Bob Armstrong. Europe's Stoxx 600 index and the Japanese Nikkei 225 hit record highs earlier this year, along with the S & P 500 . FactSet data shows the former trades at 15 times trailing 12-month earnings, while the latter has a multiple of 23. The S & P 500, meanwhile sports a 27 times earnings multiple. Year to date, the Nikkei is up nearly 20%, outpacing the S & P 500's 17% jump.
Persons: Bob Armstrong, Europe's, Armstrong, Armstrong didn't Organizations: Nikkei, CNBC, Tokyo, European Central Bank and Bank of England, Franklin FTSE United Kingdom ETF Locations: U.S, Europe, Armstrong, Russia, Ukraine, Japan
Jeffrey Buchbinder, the chief equity strategist at LPL Financial, doesn't think the rally is sustainable. Although stocks will likely continue rising for a while longer this earnings season, Buchbinder advises investors to prepare for a pullback later this year. Given his uninspired view on how stocks will perform, Buchbinder recommends waiting and buying the dip when the market eventually corrects. For investors' existing equity allocations, Buchbinder recommends leaning toward domestic equities, with a focus on growth stocks. ETFs like the Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG), iShares Morningstar Growth ETF (ILCG), and Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) all provide exposure to growth stocks.
Persons: , Jeffrey Buchbinder, doesn't, Buchbinder, LPL, iShares Organizations: Service, LPL, Business, Wall Street, Bloomberg, ISM, Investors, Buchbinder, Vanguard, Franklin FTSE Locations: Japan, Franklin FTSE Japan
The rally for Japanese stocks is set to continue in the second half of the year, but the best way for American investors to participate in it could change, according to the BlackRock Investment Institute. The firm said in its midyear outlook that being overweight on Japanese stocks is one of its highest conviction calls. Many Americans have already been rushing into funds that track Japanese stocks, part of a broader increase in foreign investor money . HEWJ YTD mountain Currency-hedged Japanese funds like the HEWJ are outperforming their unhedged counterparts in 2024. Goldman Sachs Asset Management said in its midyear outlook that "in Japan, we expect strong equity market performance to continue being driven by structural changes."
Persons: Wei Li, Li Organizations: BlackRock Investment Institute, U.S ., BlackRock, Goldman, Management Locations: U.S, BlackRock, Japan, bullish
Investors may want to consider hedging their emerging market plays, according to one exchange-traded fund expert. Ben Slavin, global head of ETFs and managing director at BNY, said that while there have been notable inflows into Indian, European and Japanese ETFs, investors should account for the strength of the U.S. dollar. The iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) gives investors exposure to Japanese equities but does not account for fluctuations between the Japanese yen and the U.S. dollar. The WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund (DXJ) , which gives exposure and accounts for fluctuations, has grown more than 20% in that same time frame. And ETFs have those different options available for investors to allocate one way or the other," Slavin said.
Persons: Ben Slavin, Slavin, CNBC's Organizations: U.S ., Japan Hedged Equity Locations: Japan
Investor darling Nvidia is dominating headlines once again after its earnings last week surpassed expectations on the back of the artificial intelligence boom. Morgan Stanley notes that the reaction to Nvidia's first quarter results is "very telling on how much buying power still exists in the market." Here are seven of Morgan Stanley's overweight-rated stocks to play these AI themes: Overweight-rated stocks Among Morgan Stanley's list of AI stock opportunities are South Korean tech giant SK Hynix and Taiwanese chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company . SK Hynix stocks are held in the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (8.4% weight) and Franklin FTSE South Korea ETF (8.3% weight). Shares in TSMC are included in the iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF (25.1% weight) and Franklin FTSE Taiwan ETF (22.2% weight) Beyond the headline-makers, Morgan Stanley also sees potential in Japanese manufacturer Advantest Corp .
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Nvidia's, Hopper, Morgan Stanley's, Morgan, Goldman Sachs, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Nvidia, SK Hynix, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Korea ETF, Franklin FTSE, Franklin FTSE South Korea ETF, Advantest Corp, Japan Equity, JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan, Alchip Technologies, Technology, Memory Technology, Micronics Locations: Asia, Korean, Korea, Franklin FTSE South, Taiwan, Franklin FTSE Taiwan
Retail traders bought billions of dollars worth of cash equities over the past week on net, according to data compiled by JPMorgan's Peng Cheng. With those gains, he said traders bought into Apple and Alphabet , which have both largely sat out of the broader market rally this year. By comparison, investors bought more than half a billion dollars of Alphabet when accounting for outflows. Neither tech stock made the list of top 25 securities by retail net inflows in the previous week. Outside of big tech, Cheng noted that retail investors snapped up shares of beat-down Boeing , which is facing a crisis surrounding its 737 Max 9s after a door panel blew out midflight.
Persons: JPMorgan's Peng Cheng, Cheng, SPX, Max, LSEG Organizations: Retail, Nvidia, Meta, Apple, Trust, outflows, Boeing, Dow Jones, Broadcom, Costco Locations: Japan
U.S. equities aren't the only ones on a bull run — the Japanese stock market is also enjoying an upward climb. "It is the case that the Japanese stock market remains almost exclusively driven by foreign money," Jefferies head of global equity strategy Christopher Wood wrote in a March 7 note. According to Wood, foreign investors now own almost a third of the Japanese stock market, a dramatic rise from the 4% level in 1989, when the asset bubble reached its peak. Morgan Stanley noted that quality stocks have outperformed the broader market so far in 2024. Transitioning out of deflation Rate policy has been another big factor in the recent market rally.
Persons: Jefferies, Christopher Wood, Wood, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Makoto Furukawa, Ryota Sakagami, Citi's Sakagami Organizations: Nikkei, Global, Retailing, Holdings, Toyota Motor, Subaru, Mitsubishi, Citi, Japan, U.S, Bank of Locations: Japan, U.S, Tokyo, Bank of Japan
Japan's Nikkei 225 index , a price-weighted index of 225 Japanese stocks, has also hit an historic high. A few months before that, on December 29, 1989, Japan's Nikkei 225 Index hit an historic high that stood until this week. That's about the amount the U.S. stock market dropped at the start of the Great Depression, from 1929 to 1932. .N225 5Y mountain Nikkei 225 Index in past five years. The Japanese stock market took 20 years.
Persons: it's, Japan's, Minoru Isutani, Arnold Palmer, Richard Ferris, Peter Ueberroth, Clint Eastwood, Nori, Bart Wakabayashi Organizations: Nikkei, CNBC, Japan's Nikkei, Mitsubishi, Rockefeller Center, Lone Cypress Company, Sumitomo Bank, Taiheiyo, Lone Cypress, Toyota, Honda, Sony, Hitachi, Nintendo, Sumitomo Mitsui, Japan Hedged Equity, Dow Jones, Tokyo Stock Exchange, Retailing, Softbank, Vision Fund, Foreign, Bank of Japan, White Oak Capital, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, New York, Japanese, California, Japan, U.S, Singapore
Japanese stocks had one of their best years in recent memory, and they could rally even more in 2024. .N225 ALL mountain Big gains for Nikkei in 2023 That momentum has carried into early 2024. What's more, Wall Street sees no signs of Japanese stocks slowing down. In early 2023, Japanese stocks surged after the highest Shunto wage hike in 30 years was passed, at above 3% from above 2% the year prior, according to the Japan Times . Corporate earnings and economic growth Another driver for Japanese stocks this year could be strong corporate earnings and economic growth.
Persons: Warren Buffett, What's, BofA's Masashi Akutsu, Akutsu, Fumio Kishida, Scott Ladner, Ladner, we've, they're, Glovista's Carlos Asilis, there's, Bernstein, Neil Beveridge, Horizon's Ladner Organizations: Mitsubishi, Mitsui, Itochu, Sumitomo, Nikkei, Japan Times, Horizon Investments, Japan, Japan Hedged Equity, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Toyota, U.S Locations: Japan, That's
Investors are increasingly looking to emerging market exchange-traded funds for growth at a reasonable price. David Mann, head of capital markets at Franklin Templeton, named India as one of the most popular countries with ETF investors in the past year. "[It] has been one of the emerging market standouts thus far, so India has been a great story." The firm's Franklin FTSE India ETF (FLIN) has risen 18.19% in the past year, as of Tuesday's close. As of Tuesday's close, the firm's Franklin FTSE Japan ETF (FLJP) gained 12.58% in the past year.
Persons: David Mann, Franklin Templeton, CNBC's, Mike Akins, Akins, Franklin Templeton's Mann, Action's Akins Organizations: Franklin, Franklin FTSE, Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, Infosys, Toyota Motor, Sony Group, Mitsubishi UFJ Locations: India, Franklin, Franklin FTSE India, Japan, U.S, Franklin FTSE Japan
One place in the world stands as a beacon for investors in bank stocks: Japan. Japanese banks have outperformed in a year when U.S. banks have come under pressure both from rapidly rising interest rates and the regional banking crisis last spring. "We've been bullish on Japanese banks for a long time," said Chen Zhao, chief global strategist at Alpine Macro. Part of what's driving the bull case for Japanese banks is the country's yield curve. While the U.S. and other developed economies contend with an inverted yield curve that's weighing on financial profit margins, Japan continues to have a positive yield curve.
Persons: We've, Chen Zhao, Zhao, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Japan's, Kolanovic, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan, Regional Banking, Treasury, Japan Post Bank, Chiba Bank, JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan, Resona Holdings Locations: Japan, U.S, EWJ
.DXY 1Y mountain The dollar index hit new highs for 2023 in September. "Energy equities haven't really kept up with the energy market rally," she added. The latest iShares outlook highlighted the firm's U.S. Energy ETF (IYE) as a way to play higher oil prices. Other major funds in that category include the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) , the Vanguard Energy Index ETF (VDE) and the Fidelity MSCI Energy Index ETF (FENY) . Investors can outsource currency market decisions in the form of managed futures ETFs, which have exposure to currency markets in addition to other asset classes.
Persons: Gargi Chaudhuri, Morgan Stanley, Sasikanth Chilukuru, It's, Chaudhuri, Todd Sohn, Sohn, Andrew Beer, Beer, You've, Anastasia Amoroso, There's, Amoroso Organizations: Texas, BlackRock, iShares, Energy, U.S . Energy, Vanguard Energy, Fidelity MSCI Energy, Wall, U.S ., Invesco DB, Fund, WisdomTree Bloomberg, Investors, Global, Apple, Nvidia Locations: U.S, Saudi Arabia, DBi, Japan
However, some investors believe a bearish China story is shifting the spotlight onto investment opportunities in other Asian markets. Morgan Stanley downgraded the iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) to equal weight from overweight in early August, citing lower earnings growth expectations and structural challenges. Opportunity in Japan Japan currently stands out as a "particularly attractive" investment play, according to Horizon Investments chief investment officer Scott Ladner. Investors can get access to the Japanese market through the iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) , which has an expense ratio of 0.5% and more than $13 billion in assets. Ways to play the space include the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) , the Franklin FTSE South Korea ETF (FLKR) and the iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF (EWT) .
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Wells, Jay Bryson, Scott Ladner, Ladner, Seth Carpenter, it's, Carlos Asilis, China —, Asilis, Franklin Templeton's FLKR, we've Organizations: Horizon Investments, Bank of Japan, Glovista Investments, Korea ETF, Franklin FTSE, Franklin FTSE South Korea ETF, U.S Locations: China, Wells Fargo, Japan Japan, Japan, Asia, Pacific, South Korea, Taiwan, Korea, Franklin FTSE South, Australia, India, Vietnam, Indonesia
Look at the Treasury yield curve and The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, says Rosenberg, who called the 2008 recession. He added: "Even if we could argue about a recession or a soft landing, you have Nirvana priced into the stock market as an asset class right now." 7 places for returns as a recession loomsThe first place Rosenberg said he's bullish on is the Treasury market. Treasury bills have durations of one year or less, while Treasury bonds have durations of 20 years or more. The iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) is one way to invest in Japanese stocks.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Treasurys, Rosenberg, there's, he's, bullish, underperformance, Warren Buffett Organizations: Treasury, Conference, CNN, Rosenberg Research, Treasury Bond ETF, Regional Banking, Vanguard Utilities, Real, Fidelity MSCI Communication Locations: U.S, Japan
Goldman Sachs expects an oversupply in the global market of battery parts for electric vehicles to have major implications for four major companies. Potential losers The bank's analysts expect POSCO Future M and EcoPro BM, two major Korean cathode producers, to be negatively impacted by this surplus. We thus initiate at Sell on Posco Future M and Ecopro BM," said Goldman Sachs analysts led by Nihil Bhandari in a note on June 12. And winners While Korean cathode manufacturers are expected to face potential margin compression, Korean battery cell makers LG Chem and Samsung SDI are deemed to be in a more favorable position. According to Goldman Sachs, the entry barrier for assembling battery cells is higher than for producing cathodes, making it a less crowded market.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Nihil Bhandari, Goldman Organizations: Trust Asia, Japan ETF, South Korean, LG Chem, Samsung SDI, Investors, SmartETFs Sustainable Energy, Franklin FTSE Locations: Japan, POSCO, Korean, Franklin FTSE South Korea, South Korea
Japanese stocks are rallying, and some small- and mid-cap names could start participating in those gains, some investors say. The iShares MSCI Japan ETF , which focuses on larger cap stocks in the market, is higher by 16% in 2023. Meanwhile, the iShares MSCI Japan Small-Cap ETF is up more than 7% over the same time period. SCJ YTD mountain iShares MSCI Japan Small-Cap ETF this year What's more, cyclical stocks are more heavily represented in small- and mid-cap Japanese equities than among large-caps. Another actively managed fund is the Hennessy Japan Small Cap Investor (HJPSX) .
Persons: haven't, Carlos Asilis, Glovista's Asilis, Hennessy, HJPSX, Morningstar Organizations: Nikkei, Japan ETF, Glovista Investments, Fidelity, Morningstar, Renesas Electronics Locations: Japan, Fidelity Japan
The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and Invesco S & P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) have attracted inflows of over $4 billion and about $1.8 billion, respectively, so far this month, according to FactSet. Both funds provide investors a way to get broad exposure to the stock market while reducing the impact of names such as Nvidia and Alphabet on their portfolios. "Interest in funds outside of core S & P exposure has increased with notable inflows and volumes into the equal-weight S & P 500 (RSP) and Russell 2000 (IWM) recently. These funds — along with a host of other non-Tech exposed ETFs — are seemingly a preferred way to play a catch-up trade," Strategas ETF strategist Todd Sohn said in a note to clients Tuesday. Another option for investors looking to diversify away from large technology companies could be international funds, Sohn said.
Persons: Russell, Todd Sohn, Sohn Organizations: RSP, Nvidia, Tech, Nasdaq, Revenue Locations: Japan
The Japanese economy appears to be on stable footing and its stock market should continue to climb, according to Credit Suisse. Read more: Japan stocks are on fire this year. Ways to play it The simplest way for U.S-based investors to add exposure to Japan is through exchange-traded funds. The biggest U.S. ETF that tracks Japan is the iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) . When the yen falls versus the dollar, that can mute the returns of Japanese stocks for U.S. investors.
Persons: Andrew Garthwaite, Garthwaite, Read, BlackRock's iShares, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Credit Suisse, Global, U.S, JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan, JPMorgan, Japan Hedged Equity Locations: Japan, U.S
Since then, Japanese equities have rallied. Even so, Strategas Securities' Chris Verrone has remained optimistic on Japanese equities, saying this week that the rally is not yet overbought. Meanwhile, JPMorgan chief market strategist Marko Kolanovic said in a note, also on Tuesday, that the rally in Japan still has "staying power." For international investors, those remarks signaled that Japanese companies may be more transparent with shareholders in the future. Investors can also take a company-specific approach, according to Diamond Hill's Mohanraj, who favors Japanese companies that boast differentiated products.
SINGAPORE, April 20 (Reuters) - Corporate governance in Japan has suddenly become a cause celebre, rousing the world's third-largest stock market out of decades of lethargy and drawing in hordes of foreign investors. Japan's stock market has long been seen by investors as a 'value trap' where companies focus on market share, hoard cash and care little about shareholder returns. What has prompted investors globally to sit up and take notice is an endorsement from legendary billionaire investor Warren Buffett. The MSCI Japan Value index (.dMIJP0000VPUS) is up 9% since August 2020 versus a 9% drop for the MSCI Japan growth index (.dMIJP0000GPUS). "I think the value trap that was Japan is no longer."
With the dollar weakening, it's time for U.S. investors to get more serious about going abroad for stock market gains. Europe, China, Japan, Asia are actually going to move from losers to winners," he said. The iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI), iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) and KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) are invested in shares of Chinese companies. Chinese stocks make up 33% of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) represents that index.
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