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The latest drubbing in the world's biggest bond markets, which last year suffered a record rout, does not yet point to any dysfunction in the markets themselves, investors said. But in echoes of the volatile conditions seen during March's banking crisis, trading in euro zone benchmark German government bond futures were briefly interrupted on Thursday when bond yields spiked. U.S. and British 10-year yields were also set to end the week more than 20 bps higher , . ING said earlier on Friday that this week's data was strong enough to push yields higher even if jobs numbers interrupt the moves. "It won't be as bad as that, but higher rates and higher yields could lead to negative returns and pressure returns on equity markets."
Persons: Mike Riddell, Jan von Gerich, Mark Dowding, Gael Fichan, Fichan, BlueBay's Dowding, Yoruk Bahceli, Samuel Indyk, Harry Robertson, Hugh Lawson Organizations: U.S, Federal, Allianz Global Investors, Fed, of, European Central Bank, BlueBay Asset Management, Syz, ING, Global, Thomson Locations: Europe, United States, Australia, British, Germany, Britain, U.S, of England
LONDON, July 3 (Reuters) - World stocks rose to a two-week peak on Monday, with Japan's Nikkei closing at its highest level in 33 years, drawing support from signs that cooling inflation might temper central banks' appetite to further hike rates. U.S. data on Friday, which hinted towards cooling inflation, helped bolster gains in the tech sector and underpinned sentiment in world stocks. MSCI's world equity index (.MIWD00000PUS) rose 0.25% to its highest level in just over two weeks, while the pan-European STOXX 600 index also hit a two-week peak (.STOXX). Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) shed 5% last quarter while much of the developed world rallied. Key U.S. data this week include closely watched surveys on manufacturing and services, job openings and the June payrolls report.
Persons: Seema Shah, Jan von Gerich, May's, Michael Feroli, Brent, Dhara Ranasinghe, Wayne Cole, Karin Strohecker, Amanda Cooper, David Evans, Mark Potter Organizations: Japan's Nikkei, Bank of Japan, Nasdaq, Apple, Frankfurt, Bank of, Key, JPMorgan, Fed, Thomson Locations: Asia, London, U.S, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Sydney
"We are not pausing - that is very clear," ECB President Christine Lagarde told a press conference. NOT FED DEPENDENTShe also dismissed the notion that the ECB would have to pause if its U.S. counterpart did so, saying the ECB was "not Fed-dependent". The German 10-year yield , the euro zone benchmark, fell as much as 7 basis points to a one-month low of 2.18%. "In a nod to the hawks, the ECB hinted at 'future decisions' in the plural," Holger Schmieding at Berenberg said. Firms in the services sector especially have complained of labour shortages, suggesting that more wage pressures could come this summer.
World stocks cling to upbeat mood, dollar stalls
  + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Dhara Ranasinghe | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
European stocks added 0.5% (.STOXX), U.S. equity futures pointed to a positive Wall Street open , and Japan's blue-chip Nikkei rallied over 1% (.N225). Markets price in a roughly 70% chance of a May hike, having last week priced such a move as a coin toss. Traders still price in rate cuts by year-end as the economic growth outlook weakens, exacerbated by banking turmoil. U.S. March inflation data on Wednesday could provide the next steer for markets on the rate outlook. U.S. Treasury yields edged down on Tuesday, however, , with rate sensitive two-year yields 4 bps lower at 3.96%.
World stocks hold on to upbeat mood, dollar stalls
  + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Dhara Ranasinghe | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
European stock markets opened broadly firmer (.STOXX), U.S. stock futures pointed to a positive open for Wall Street shares , and Japan's blue-chip Nikkei rallied over 1% (.N225). Friday's non-farm payrolls suggested labour markets remain resilient, boosting expectations for a 25 basis point (bps) U.S. rate increase in May. NEW BOJ CHIEFIn Asia, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.57%, while MSCI's world stock index was up 0.3% (.MIWD00000PUS). U.S. Treasury yields edged down in European trade , with rate sensitive two-year yields last down 3 bps at 3.96%. Brent crude futures rose 61 cents, or 0.74%, to $84.81 a barrel, while U.S. WTI futures gained 68 cents, or 0.83%, to $80.41 a barrel.
[1/2] A stock broker looks at his screens at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, March 16, 2023. REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/File PhotoSummary Graphic: World FX ratesGraphic: Global asset performanceWorld stocks pull back from 7-week highsNZ dollar rallies after big rate hikeLONDON, April 5 (Reuters) - World stock markets stumbled on Wednesday as signs that the economic outlook is weakening spurred caution, while a bigger-than-expected interest-rate hike from New Zealand lifted the kiwi dollar. European stocks fell with the broad STOXX 600 index pulling away from Tuesday's one-month highs (.STOXX). U.S. equity futures dipped , and Japan's Nikkei (.N225) fell 1.6% in its biggest one-day percentage fall since mid-March. Weak U.S. economic data this week has exacerbated recession worries, taking the edge off recent stock market gains.
European banks default-risk indicator jumps, AT1 bonds fall
  + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Deutsche Bank's (DBKGn.DE) five-year credit default swaps (CDS) jumped 19 basis points (bps) from Thursday's close to 222 bps, data from S&P Global Market Intelligence showed. UBS's (UBSG.S) five-year CDS also shot up 14 bps from Thursday's close to 130 bps, the data showed. European banks' Additional Tier 1 (AT1) debt also came under fresh selling pressure, with Deutsche and UBS AT1s down around four and two cents in price, respectively, according to Tradeweb data. Although European regulators and authorities in Asia have said this week they would continue to impose losses on shareholders before bondholders - unlike the treatment of bondholders at Credit Suisse - unease lingers. Reporting by Chiara Elisei and Amanda Cooper; Writing by Dhara Ranasinghe; Editing by Susan FentonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
SummarySummary Companies European banks, bonds, CDS sell offDeutsche Bank CDS rise to highest since late 2018Confidence hurt, outlook dimsLONDON, March 24 (Reuters) - Confidence in European banks deteriorated further on Friday, with the cost of insuring against a debt default rising sharply as the profit outlook for the sector dimmed. Deutsche Bank's (DBKGn.DE) five-year credit default swaps (CDS) jumped 19 basis points (bps) from Thursday's close to 222 bps, rising to their highest since late 2018, data from S&P Global Market Intelligence showed. The prospect that interest rates may be close to peaking, as financial markets are signalling, would also curb banks' profit margins on lending. BOND WATCHEuropean banks' Additional Tier 1 (AT1) debt came under fresh selling pressure, with Deutsche AT1 prices down 6 cents, according to Tradeweb data. The selloff in AT1s highlighted concerns about rising funding costs for European banks and helped explain why the sector was facing renewed pressure on Friday, analysts said.
The fresh price falls in Europe came as investors were looking to see how far U.S. authorities would go to shore up the banking sector, particularly fragile regional lenders. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo 1 2CDS surge on banking sector turmoilUBS CHALLENGESThe global banking sector has been shaking since the sudden collapse this month of SVB and Signature Bank. But the worries spread quickly, and on Sunday UBS (UBSG.S) was rushed into taking over Swiss rival Credit Suisse after it lost the confidence of investors. Separate sources told Reuters that UBS has promised retention packages to Credit Suisse wealth management staff in Asia to stem a talent exodus. Standard Chartered (STAN.L) Chief Executive Bill Winters said on Friday the wipeout of Credit Suisse bondholders had "profound" implications for global bank regulations.
European banks face renewed selling pressure
  + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +8 min
So people are acting with their feet and continuing to sell bank stocks. ING ECONOMICS TEAM (emailed) "Most European banks are impacted by these events mainly via the more cautious market sentiment. "It seems like post what happened to Credit Suisse last weekend, two things might be at play here. “European banks probably suffered from contagion from what was going on in the US, where the regional banks seem to be under pressure in the rising rate environment. European banks have, in fact, had no fundamental issues whatsoever.
Separately, two days of chaos in China's $21 trillion bond market ended on Friday after Beijing allowed money brokers to resume providing data to third-party platforms. Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital, said he considered selling Treasuries earlier in the week but the market was "wildly illiquid." Bond market volatility spikesKEEPING WATCHThe heightened volatility has caught the eye of officials who play a role in ensuring financial markets stability. Analysts noted that bond volatility was exceptionally high not only because of a flight to safe-haven government debt, but also due to a massive repricing of rate-hike expectations. "If liquidity is deteriorating due to wild swings in safe-haven markets, that has implications for the functioning of financial markets and broader economic stability."
U.S. dollar down, still set for best year since 2015
  + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Hannah Lang | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
As 2022 draws to a close, the dollar was set to notch a 7.9% annual gain against a basket of currencies - its biggest annual jump in seven years. "If it's weak growth, the U.S. dollar will fall. The British pound was last up 0.09% at $1.2063, on pace for a 10.8% annual drop . The Australian dollar, seen as a liquid proxy for risk appetite, was up 0.41% on the day at $0.681 , but set to drop 6.4% on the year overall. The Bank of Japan's ultra-dovish stance has the dollar set to gain 13.7% versus the yen this year, in the yen's worst performance since 2013.
With liquidity lower due to holidays, the dollar index was down around 0.308% on the day at 103.650 . The euro was up 0.22% on the day to $1.0684 , on track for a 6% annual loss versus the dollar, compared with last year's 7% drop. The British pound was last up 0.21% at $1.2077, set for a 10.7% annual drop . It was set for an 8.6% annual drop, hurt by dollar strength and a domestic economic slowdown. The Bank of Japan's ultra-dovish stance has seen the dollar gain 14.5% versus the yen so far this year, in the yen's worst performance since 2013.
With liquidity lower due to holidays, the dollar index was down around 0.3% on the day at 103.720 . "But for the near-term outlook we’re looking for some more performance in the euro versus the dollar." The euro was up 0.2% on the day at $1.0681 , on track for a 6.2% annual loss versus the dollar, compared to last year's 7% drop. The British pound was down 0.1%, set for a 11% annual drop . Still, it was set for an 8.6% annual drop, hurt by dollar strength and a domestic economic slowdown.
LONDON, Dec 15 (Reuters) - The Bank of England on Thursday raised interest rates by a widely expected 50 basis points (bps) to 3.50%, in its ninth straight increase - and its eighth this year. UK rates began rising in December 2021, making the BoE the first of the world's major central banks to kick off a monetary policy-tightening cycle. MONEY MARKETS: Interest rate swaps showed investors expected rates to peak at 4.46% by next August, compared with an anticipated terminal rate of 4.53% just before the decision. Their own numbers have been pointing to a recession for a little while, and they've still materially hiked interest rates. EDWARD HUTCHINGS, HEAD OF RATES, AVIVA INVESTORS, LONDON:"The Bank of England duly delivered on financial markets expectations of a 0.50% hike.
VIEW Bank of England lifts UK rates to 3% in historic hike
  + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
REUTERS/Toby MelvilleLONDON, Nov 3 (Reuters) - The Bank of England raised UK interest rates to 3% on Thursday in its largest rate hike since 1989 and warned of a "very challenging outlook" for the economy. Money markets showed traders now expect UK rates to peak at 4.6% by next September, compared to expectations of 4.8% just two days ago. UK bank stocks (.FTNMX301010) fell 0.8%BONDS: Yields on the two-year gilt were last up 1 basis points at 3.041%, compared with 3.064% before the BoE announced its decision. Rates markets are pricing another 50bps hike at each of the December and February meetings, although still reflect a lower terminal rate than just a week ago. ANDREW ALDRIDGE, PARTNER AT DEEPBRIDGE CAPITAL, LONDON"Quelling rampant inflation and kickstarting a slowing economy left the Bank facing a difficult balancing act, with today's interest rate hike to 3% hardly surprising in this context.
Investors will also look to ECB boss Christine Lagarde for guidance on how the ECB views the trade-off between recession risks and inflation, and when it might pause tightening. Economists say it's too early to call a peak in inflation but the chances of one arriving soon are growing. While an inflation peak may be close if there are no additional shocks from the war in Ukraine, the retreat will be slow initially, ECB policymaker Bostjan Vasle believes. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics4/ Is the ECB giving away cash to banks and what will it do about it? Aggressive rate hikes from major central banks and a rout in British bonds have sparked concern about financial instability.
U.S. One dollar banknotes are seen in front of displayed stock graph in this illustration taken, February 8, 2021. Still, world stock markets remained on edge and the dollar maintained its firm tone, given expectations that the Fed would maintain its aggressive rate-hike path to contain uncomfortably high inflation. "The Fed is not close to being done and that is supportive for the dollar." Markets fully price in a 75 basis point Fed rate hike this week and a roughly 20% chance of a 100 bps increase. read moreCanada's dollar fell to its lowest in almost two years at 1.3324 per U.S. dollar .
Sterling languishes near 37-year low vs dollar
  + stars: | 2022-09-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Pound and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken January 6, 2020. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationLONDON, Sept 19 (Reuters) - Sterling was weaker against a robust dollar on Monday, hovering near last week's 37-year low, with sentiment towards the British currency remaining weak given a darkening economic outlook. The Federal Reserve is also meeting this week and expectations for an even bigger hike of at least 75 bps has bolstered the dollar. The pound was last trading at $1.1381 , down about 0.5% on the day and within sight of the 37-year low hit on Friday at $1.1351. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Dhara Ranasinghe Editing by Mark HeinrichOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
U.S. One dollar banknotes are seen in front of displayed stock graph in this illustration taken, February 8, 2021. Still, the dollar maintained its firm tone, given expectations that the Fed would maintain its aggressive rate-hike path to contain uncomfortably high inflation. Markets fully price in a 75 basis point Fed rate hike this week and a roughly 20% chance of a 100 bps increase. read moreCanada's dollar in early European trade fell to its lowest in almost two years at 1.3311 per U.S. dollar . read moreChina's yuan kept to the weaker side of 7 per dollar as economic worries and the possibility of more benchmark interest rate cuts loomed on Tuesday.
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