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Some of the key drivers that drove stocks to record highs in the first three months of the year are being undermined, leading to Tuesday's sell-off, according to investor James Abate. "Stocks are priced for perfection and for them to move higher or avoid a correction you needed rates to either go down and/or profits to move higher. Outside of macro and micro data, the stock market's woes have been exacerbated by rising geopolitical tensions, Abate added. The underperformance in the Russell 2000 small-cap index means that this market selloff isn't solely contained to high-flying tech stocks. Abate manages the Centre American Select Equity Fund, which has returned 8.9% year to date compared to its category average of 9.7%, according to Morningstar .
Persons: James Abate, Abate, Tesla, Russell, Wall Street's, Morningstar Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Centre Asset Management, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Dow, American, Equity Fund, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia Locations: Syria
The 10-year Treasury yield started the new year trading around 3.8% after a steep decline in late 2023. Against this backdrop, CNBC Pro asked three strategists and money managers how they would allocate $50,000 with yields rising again. Specifically, he recommended bills with a three- to six-month maturity, which investors can gain exposure to through exchange-traded funds such as the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) or SPDR Portfolio Short Term Treasury ETF (SPTS) . Exchange-traded funds that offer exposure to these assets include the iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) and Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCIT) . Invest in dividend-growing value stocks Newton Investment Management's John Bailer recommended investors solely allocate into value stocks with sustainable and growing dividends.
Persons: Kumar, VGSH, VCIT, John Bailer, JPMorgan Chase, They've, they've, Bailer, Northrop Grumman, James Abate, Abate, Johnson, Geoff Martha, Colgate's Organizations: Treasury, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, CNBC Pro, Sri, Kumar, CNBC, AAA, Exchange, Treasury Bond ETF, Vanguard, Stock Market, U.S, Bloomberg, Newton Investment, JPMorgan Chase, JPMorgan, Northrop, Asset Management, Johnson, Colgate, Palmolive Locations: Bailer's
I'm eager to share today's conversation with a top strategist about changes to the current investing landscape — but first I have a question. Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management. Courtesy of Principal Asset ManagementSeema Shah is the chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management. Seema Shah: The key part of it is that we're not in an era of unlimited central bank liquidity. Historically, in a period of low economic growth and higher-than-expected inflation, it outperforms global fixed income and global equities, almost without exception.
Higher-than-anticipated interest rates could lead to economic pain and even a credit shock. Top-1% fund manager James Abate explained why he hasn't given up on stocks yet. Here are 13 value stocks to buy in this shaky environment, according to Abate. Leading fund manager James Abate isn't predicting a repeat of the financial crisis, but he is worried that banks could get their biggest test in years if interest rates keep rising. While nothing is guaranteed in markets, Abate said that 2023 will provide many opportunities for fund managers like him to outperform.
That's that for the latest Fed talk — but today, we're taking a closer look at the AI hype train passing through the stock market. And small-cap tech stocks with names that nod to bots like BigBear.ai and SoundHound AI have similarly notched gains so far this year. Tech stocks have come back with a "vengeance," Fundstrat's Mark Newton said. It's a necessary step for policymakers to take, the group said, even if it means declines in stock market returns. Wall Street's biggest firms are warning their clients not to trust the stock market rally.
Kiplinger rates the fund as the best US large-company stock fund from 2020 to 2022. That's not the most encouraging backdrop for stocks, especially since Abate said investors will be less comfortable taking big risks. He added that while the beginning of 2023 has been the opposite of 2022, that's not going to last. For the first black swan, Abate pointed towards the escalation of the Russian-Ukraine crisis, including the recent increase in air defense activity, ground troops, and the shipment of armored vehicles, tanks, and fighter aircraft. As for the second black swan, Abate also highlighted the Japanese government's "unprecedented" and "unsustainable" buying of the yen to boost the currency against others like the dollar.
UBS's Mark Haefele says there's a strong possibility the January market rally is a "head fake." But the rally has sputtered to a halt after US stocks sold off this week to erase half the gains they've made in 2023. "But it remains possible that the rally is a 'head fake,' and that economic data will ultimately disappoint." This may be due in part to a strong labor market keeping wage growth robust. And despite energy's astonishing rally last year, Haefele still believes that there's still room to go for the sector.
Don't shoot the messenger here, but today I'm breaking down the many troubles plaguing the housing market and homebuyers. The Fed's interest rate maneuvering and the housing market are connected, and mortgage rates often move in lockstep with the central bank's benchmark rate. Brian Jacobsen, a senior strategist for Allspring Global Investments, pointed to a triumvirate of headwinds weighing on the housing sector: labor shortages, rising costs, and soaring mortgages. That means more rate hikes are effectively guaranteed, which raises the odds of a recession and can further squash housing demand. What's your forecast for the housing market next year?
He foresees the S&P 500 falling another 30% and bottoming within the next three to nine months. Abate shared 11 compelling stocks to buy to mitigate looming recessionary risks. But with the looming threat of a recession, Abate believes that the days of big contrarian trade ideas are now behind us. Especially "idiosyncratic stocks that have kind of already felt the pain of a downturn, so even if a recession happens, their backlogs can get them through recessionary conditions." Two biotechnology names Abate noted as standout idiosyncratic ideas are Biogen (BIIB) and Gilead (GILD).
Drawing from the dot-com crash, he believes the current bear market still has 15%-20% more downside. Abate also shared the biggest mistake investors could make once the Fed begins to ease once more. Today's bear market mirrors the dot-com crashPart of Abate's investment process involves drawing parallels between the current market and historical recessions. "I still think that we are in the midst of a bear market. Similarly, both bear markets were also kicked off by an "excessive period of poor allocation of investment capital," Abate said.
So far, results from the big Wall Street banks have been mixed, with JPMorgan and Citigroup beating but Morgan Stanley falling short of forecasts. He told CNBC on Friday that Thursday's wild reversal wasn't just a bear market rally and could be the start of a new upswing. "We are, in my opinion, coming to the end of this bear market," Scaramucci told CNBC on Friday. Is the stock market poised for a sustainable uptrend or still teasing with bear market rallies? But the stock market isn't out of the woods yet as there could be more pain in the short-term.
James Abate's fund has beaten 99% of its peers this year and over one, three, and five years. Here are his 9 standout stock picks which he says have enough pricing power to beat the bear market. He compared this dogmatic style of investing — purposely ignoring opportunities in the market — to horses running around a track with blinders on. Within energy, Abate specifically likes more gas-related names versus oil-related ones, with two standouts including Exxon Mobil (XOM) and EQT (EQT). Below is the full list of Abate's nine standout stocks along with the ticker, market capitalization, and sector for each.
James Abate expects that his fund distinguished itself this year by maintaining a traditional bottom-up perspective on stocks. The flagship fund of Cathie Wood's ARK Invest, the ARK Innovation ETF , is down 28% this year. The fund manager maintains a concentrated portfolio of 35 to 50 of his best ideas. The fund manager also incorporates hedging techniques, specifically put options, from time to time to fortress the portfolio during periods of volatility, such as during the pandemic. Before founding Centre Asset Management in 2006, Abate started his career as a manager of valuation services at PriceWaterhouseCoopers in 1987, according to LinkedIn.
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