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☆ Why the next US recession may be pushed back to 2025, according to JPMorgan
  + stars: | 2024-04-02 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Fears of an economic recession may have to be pushed back to 2025, according to JPMorgan. JPMorgan said the rebound in manufacturing activity bodes well for continued economic resilience. The note highlighted the unexpected strength seen in ISM manufacturing activity in March, which jumped above 50 for the first time since September 2022. A reading above 50 represents an expansion in manufacturing activity, while a reading below 50 represents a contraction. If a potential recession is pushed back to 2025 because of the solid manufacturing data, it would represent yet another year in which many economists were off in their recession predictions, though some have backed off their call for a recession following the resilience seen throughout 2023 even amid higher interest rates.
Persons: JPMorgan's Ellen Wang, Andrew Tyler, Wang, Tyler, Wang aren't Organizations: JPMorgan, Market Intelligence, Federal Reserve
☆ Tomorrow's October CPI report could jolt markets in a big way if expectations are not met. Here's what to expect, according to JPMorgan
  + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Economists expect the CPI report to show a year-over-year increase of 7.9%, a decline from September's 8.2% reading. The bank's trading desk ran a scenario analysis of where it expects the S&P 500 to trade depending on the CPI report. The least likely scenario happening, according to JPMorgan, is a huge beat or miss in the October CPI report. The October report "could be as much [as] a 'game changer' as 'hot' August CPI derailed S&P 500," he said. Whatever happens, investors should expect another bout of volatility heading into the end of the week in anticipation of tomorrow's CPI report.
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