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Opinion | Nate Silver on How Kamala Harris Changed the Odds
  + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( Ezra Klein | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +81 min
You know, Hillary Clinton, who was, I think, kind of a terrible candidate, won the popular vote by two points. So I don’t think they gave her a very good hand to play. It doesn’t matter who you are, it matters that you’re right and you’re able to prove it or bet on it in some way. What wasn’t in the Harris model that should have been?” “Yeah, maybe you really can meme your way to victory. And there’s something in it that I don’t think she can explain how she does it, but it makes her a fascinating leader.
Persons: Nate Silver, , ESPN’s Nate Silver, Silver, He’s, “ Savage, ” “, he’s, Ezra, Harris, we’ve, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump’s, There’s, Hillary Clinton, she’s, She’s, Gavin Newsom, It’s, Biden, I’m, you’re, Joe Biden, Democratic Party Harris, Liz, , , Donald Trump, that’s, George W, Bush, Donald Trump wasn’t, it’s, Michael Jackson, Woody Allen, , Chick, don’t, George Floyd, ‘ COVID, COVID, Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, Michael Moritz, Elon, Mark Cuban, Thiel, Max Chafkin, Mark Zuckerberg, Larry Page, Sergey Brin, Marc Andreessen, Ted Cruz, Sam Bankman, Tom Brady, SBF, Carrick Flynn, Oregon’s, I’m Carrick Flynn, Tara MacAulay, vouched, Bill Clinton, Tyler Cowen, they’ve, Jane, JD Vance, Peter Thiel’s, Vance, Trump, Steve Bannon, Don Trump, Jr, Tucker Carlson, Tim Walz, Josh Shapiro, Tell, you’ve, Shapiro, Walz, I’ve, Iglesias, Obama, Susan Collins, Joe Manchin —, Jon Tester, ” “ Sherrod Brown, I’d, Dana White, Hulk Hogan, Joe Biden’s, — let’s, Mike Donilon, Kennedy, ” “ Tim Alberta, Georgia —, Brian Kemp, Blake Masters, Rick Scott, ” “ Trump, Doug Burgum, Black, didn’t, — Woodrow Wilson, Harry Truman, Michael Jordan, everyone’s, Nancy Pelosi’s, Nancy Pelosi, Joe ’, we’re, I’ll, John Coates, Richard Rhodes, Natasha Schüll, Natasha Organizations: Oracle, Trump, Democratic Party, Facebook, Twitter, The New York Times, ’ Harvard University, Democratic White House, Republican White House, Democratic, Silver, George, Vegas, Poker, extroversion, Elon, Sequoia Capital, McLaren, Paypal, Republican, New, PAC, Alameda, Las, Ohio Senate, underperform, White, UFC, RNC, Biden, Biden ., National Association of Black Journalists, Deutsche Bank, Manhattan Project, Design Locations: Nate, Russian, Russia, , Elon, Florida, predestiny, Bahamas, Sam, Africa, New York, Oregon, Las Vegas, Petersburg, United States, Ohio, Trump, Minnesota, ” “ Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Gaza, Chicago, Montana, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada , Arizona, Biden . Georgia, Carolina, Arizona, Ukraine, LA, It’s, Vegas
A spectacular closing ceremony hands the Olympic Games over to Los Angeles. And a false JD Vance rumor sparks a misinformation row. A glorious farewell to Paris OlympicsGetty ImagesAu revoir to the Paris Games. Kamala Harris pledged to eliminate taxes on tipped wages for service workers, matching a proposal from former President Donald Trump. Politics in BriefTrump campaign: Former President Donald Trump’s campaign has said it was hacked by an Iranian group.
Persons: Vance, Katie Ledecky, Nick Mead, Tom Cruise, Ledecky, Simone Biles, Suni Lee, dazzled, ” Sha’Carri Richardson, Noah Lyles, Guy ” Stephen Nedoroscik, Yusuf Dikeç, Read, JD, Vic e, tol, stu, ord, ami, Flo, bui, Ken Bak, roa Organizations: Olympic Games, Paris, Paris Games, Stade de France, Team USA, U.S, acc, Uni, NBC Locations: Los Angeles, The U.S, American, U.S, Turkish
From Walz, a Rosier View of a Midwestern Upbringing
  + stars: | 2024-08-09 | by ( Dionne Searcey | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
In the western Nebraska town where Tim Walz came of age, teenagers gathered at the Frosty Drive-In after football practice and spent summers working on farms. The tree-lined streets of JD Vance’s hometown in Ohio surrounded a hulking steel mill that endured layoff after layoff. By his own telling, it was a community “hemorrhaging jobs and hope.”The rural Midwestern back stories presented by the two major-party vice-presidential candidates are strikingly different. Another is a glowing portrait of rural America offered by Mr. Walz, the Democratic governor of Minnesota who is Vice President Kamala Harris’s new running mate. The rival campaigns are using these opposing depictions of rural life to make very different appeals to voters.
Persons: Tim Walz, JD Vance’s, JD Vance, Ohio, . Walz, Kamala Harris’s Organizations: JD, Republican, Democratic Locations: Nebraska, Ohio, America, Minnesota
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In today’s edition, we report on how Vice President Kamala Harris’ search for a running mate is nearing the finish line. In case that wasn’t already clear from the vetting, the interviews and the obsessive media attention, consider the long — and still lengthening — list of ways one selection shaped decades of national politics. The pick influenced not just Obama’s electoral victories and the Obama administration but also every successive presidential election since then. And it could keep doing so for years, as Vice President Kamala Harris prepares to make her choice Tuesday. And Harris’ running mate selection could anoint the Democratic Party’s next presidential favorite, potentially into the 2030s.
Persons: Kamala Harris ’, Scott Bland, Barack Obama’s, Joe Biden, Obama, Kamala Harris, Obama’s, David Plouffe, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump’s, Biden, Harris, Sen, Evan Bayh, Tim Kaine, , Cori Bush, Julie Tsirkin, Kyle Stewart, “ I’m, , Bush, Wesley Bell, Bell, Louis County’s, Israel —, Jamaal Bowman, J D, Lou Organizations: NBC, White House, Capitol, Democratic, Virginia Gov, Kyle Stewart Democratic, NBC News, Israel, Justice Department Locations: Israel, Indiana, Ferguson, Washington, U.S, York, Gaza
Former President Donald Trump on Monday continued a streak of appearances with controversial influencers, this time in a 90-minute livestream with Adin Ross. During the interview, Trump told Ross that his sons introduced the idea of the collaboration to him, touting how “big” of an influencer he was. In December 2022, Jewish and anti-hate organizations spoke out against Ross’ plans to interview Ye, the artist formerly known as Kanye West. Ross canceled the interview after a phone call with Ye, during which Ross said that Ye made anti-Jewish comments. Gavin Newsom, who Trump called “New-scum,” and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., whose “spark” Trump praised and Ross referred to as "Alexandra Cortez."
Persons: Donald Trump, Adin Ross, Trump, Ross, YouTuber Logan Paul, JD, influencers, Kamala Harris ’, Kick’s, Ross ’, Ye, Kanye West, influencer Andrew Tate, Paul, Kim Jong, Xi, Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio, Alexandra Cortez, Elon Musk, , Joe Biden Organizations: Mar, YouTube, Nelk Boys, Republican, National Association of Black Journalists, Kanye, California Gov, , X, Rolex Locations: Venezuela, Romania, North, Alexandria, Cortez,
The Serbian tennis legend had won all four Grand Slam titles and practically every honor there is in the sport, but the Olympic gold medal had escaped him. Paul Ellis / AFP via Getty ImagesSimone Biles' Olympic medal collection has officially reached double digits. , the American cyclist who didn’t even qualify for the Olympics but is now going home with a gold medal. Racing in a downpour, Julien Alfred won the first Olympic medal in any sport for Saint Lucia on Saturday when she took gold in the women's 100-meter final. the first Olympic medal in any sport for Saint Lucia on Saturday when she took gold in the women's 100-meter final.
Persons: Noah Lyles, Jamaica’s Kishane Thompson, ’ Fred Kerley, Hector Vivas, Lyles, Novak Djokovic, Matthew Stockman, Novak Djokovic couldn’t, Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz, Simone Biles, Paul Ellis, , Biles, hasn’t, , ” Biles, Suni Lee, Kaylia Nemour, Qiu Qiyuan, David Li, Imane, Hungarian Anna Luca Hámori, ” Khelif, Lin Yu, Thomas Bach, Kristen Faulkner, Bobby Finke, Katie Ledecky can’t, Julien Alfred, Saint Lucia, Sha'Carri Richardson, Kamala Harris, Whom Harris, we’ll, Andy Beshear, Pete Buttigieg, Sen, Mark Kelly of, JB Pritzker, Josh Shapiro, Tim Walz, MAGA, Harris, Nikki Haley, Donald Trump, Trump, Vance, SCOTUS, Neil Gorsuch, Joe Biden's, Debby, Storm Debby, Darren Staples, Keir Starmer, Israel, Ismail Haniyeh, Fuad Shukr, “ They’ll, Michael G Organizations: Paris Olympics, U.S, Olympic, Getty, NBC News Algerian, Team USA, Saint, Paris, Taxi, Philadelphia . Kentucky Gov, Mark Kelly of Arizona ,, Mark Kelly of Arizona , Illinois Gov, Minnesota Gov, Democratic, Republican, GOP, ABC, Fox News, Tropical, National Hurricane Center, NOAA, U.S . Justice Department, Protesters, NBC News, NBC News Companies Locations: Serbian, Paris, Tokyo, Los Angeles, China, Hungarian, Taipei, U.S, Philadelphia . Kentucky, Mark Kelly of Arizona, Mark Kelly of Arizona , Illinois, Pennsylvania, Florida, of Mexico, Rocky, Southern California, Mississippi’s, Nottingham, England, AFP, Southport —, Liverpool, Hull, Israel, Iran, Breakwater, Rockland , Maine, South Florida, Nashville , Tennessee, Atlanta
The vice president likes to take her time with decisions. “This is a decision that is not just a campaign decision,” Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said in an unrelated interview with CNN last week. “The vice president has a very deeply personal decision to make right now. Andy Beshear and several other governors over to her residence for what became a gripe session about the Biden campaign in February. Obama reminded his former vice president that they had not gotten along well at first.
Persons: aren’t Kamala Harris, Harris, it’s, , ” Harris, they’re, Josh Shapiro, Joe Biden’s, , they’ve, Pete Buttigieg, Shapiro, Harris –, Biden, Mike Pence, don’t, Tim Walz, JB Pritzker, Andy Beshear, Beshear’s, Arizona’s Mark Kelly, Doug Emhoff, , Cedric Richmond, ” Richmond, Barack Obama, Eric Holder, Dana Remus, Donald Trump’s, Lorraine, Tony West, Jen O’Malley Dillon, Obama, Adam Schiff, ” CNN’s John King Organizations: CNN, Naval, Democratic Party –, Pennsylvania Gov, Staff, Biden, Veterans, Publishers Clearing House, Minnesota Gov, Illinois Gov, Kentucky Gov, Senate, Harris, White, Trump, Democratic, California Democrat Locations: Houston, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Illinois, Kentucky, California, Louisiana, Arizona
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As Senator JD Vance seeks the vice presidency, a former Yale Law School classmate and friend has shared about 90 of their emails and text messages, mostly from 2014 through 2017, with The New York Times. The emails add to an existing body of evidence showing how Mr. Vance pivoted from a strong opponent of former President Donald J. Trump to his running mate. They also provide an insight into a cultural willingness by Mr. Vance to accept his classmate, Sofia Nelson, who is transgender. Now, Nelson, who opposes the Trump-Vance ticket, hopes the emails will inform the opinion of voters about Mr. Vance. In response, a spokesman for the Vance campaign said in a statement that it was “unfortunate” for someone to share “decade-old private conversations between friends.”
Persons: JD Vance, Vance, Donald J, Trump, Sofia Nelson, Nelson, Organizations: Yale Law School, The New York Times, Trump Locations: Detroit, Arkansas
You may have heard about JD Vance’s “childless cat ladies” riff. It’s a statement, as my colleague Jessica Grose writes, that shows the desperation of Republicans who are still “clinging to the tag line that the G.O.P. It’s the kind of comment that makes you wonder if Vance thinks that he has been nominated by the Republican Party to serve as the vice president of the Republic of Gilead. Sorry — yes — Vance knows that our nation is still called the United States of America. But there’s a real “Handmaid’s Tale” vibe to a lot of what we’re hearing from the right.
Persons: JD Vance’s, Vance, they’ve, Kamala Harris, It’s, Jessica Grose, — Vance Organizations: Senate, Republican Party Locations: America, Republic of, United States of America
It’s just a decisive move toward America First on foreign policy.”Trump’s selection of Vance is one of the clearest barometers of the former president’s tightening hold over the GOP. Those included Christian conservatives, the business community, congressional insiders and traditional Republican foreign policy hawks shaped by Ronald Reagan’s vision of the US as the muscular leader of the free world. Instead, with Vance, Trump chose an acolyte and potential successor who could deepen and extend the direction the former president has set for the party. Vance has been most unequivocal in criticizing the internationalist approach to foreign policy centered on robust alliances. With the selection of Vance, Trump has broadcast his belief that he has conclusively won the internal GOP debate over all aspects of US interactions with the world – foreign policy, immigration and trade.
Persons: Ohio Sen, JD, Donald Trump’s, Republican Party’s reorientation, Vance, Trump, Trump’s, , Bill Kristol, , It’s, Mike Pence, Ronald Reagan’s, Geoffrey Kabaservice, Dwight Eisenhower, Sen, Robert Taft, Taft, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, George W, Bush, John McCain, Mitt Romney –, Patrick J, Buchanan’s, George H.W, George H.W . Bush, John Bolton, Bolton, James Mattis, Mark Esper, State Rex Tillerson, Mike Pompeo, Ivo Daalder, Barack Obama, Richard Fontaine, Republican Sen, Fontaine, “ Vance, Matthias Matthijs, Vance’s, Ohio Republican unreservedly, Donald Trump, ” Vance, Steve Bannon, Joe Biden, Adam Kinzinger, He’s, he’s, Biden, ” Trump, Vladimir Putin, Volodymyr Zelensky, ” Daalder, ” Matthijs, Putin, Aaron Friedberg, Gabriel Schoenfeld, Nikki Haley, Reagan, Haley Organizations: CNN, Ohio, Republican, GOP, Trump, America, New, Niskanen Center, Republican Party, American Free Trade, NATO, , H.R, McMaster, Defense, State, Chicago Council, Global Affairs, Center, New American Security, Johns Hopkins ’ School, International, Senate, Ohio Republican, NAFTA, Fox News, Air Force, National Guard, Businessweek, Taiwan, Biden, Chicago, South Carolina Gov, Ukraine Locations: New York, mollifying, Europe, Soviet Union, China, Canada, George H.W ., Asia, Ukraine, New American, Russian, Johns, America, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Israel, Taiwan, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Milwaukee, Moscow, , Wisconsin, Mexico ”, Kabul, Kyiv, Trump
In JD Vance’s first solo appearance as the Republican vice-presidential nominee, the Ohio Senator questioned Vice President Kamala Harris’s appreciation for the United States and chastised her fellow Democrats, who he accused of supporting President Biden “until he became political deadweight.”“If you want to lead this country, you should feel grateful for it, you should feel a sense of gratitude,” Mr. Vance said. “And I never hear that gratitude coming through when I listen to Kamala Harris.”Mr. Vance’s remarks in southwest Ohio were made during the first official campaign event for either party’s presidential ticket since President Biden announced on Sunday that he would not seek a second term. Mr. Biden stepped down just a week after Mr. Vance was named former President Donald J. Trump’s running mate, which the Ohio senator joked was like a bait-and-switch. Mr. Vance said he expected to join a vice-presidential debate against Ms. Harris, but she is now widely expected to take over as her party’s presidential nominee.
Persons: JD Vance’s, Kamala Harris’s, Biden “, ” Mr, Vance, Kamala Harris, Vance’s, Biden, Donald J, Harris Organizations: Republican Locations: Ohio, United States
Ever since President Biden’s Sunday announcement that he would not seek re-election, clearly because of age, I keep thinking about Donald Trump’s and JD Vance’s contemptuous reactions to one of the most difficult personal decisions a president has ever made, and what it says about their character. “The Democrats pick a candidate, Crooked Joe Biden, he loses the Debate badly, then panics, and makes mistake after mistake, is told he can’t win, and decide they will pick another candidate, probably Harris,” Trump wrote on social media on Monday. He later added: “It’s not over! Tomorrow our campaign begins against his replacement. Bring her on.’’
Persons: Biden’s, Donald Trump’s, JD, , Crooked Joe Biden, Harris, ” Trump, Joe Biden’s, Vance, “ Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Biden, Organizations: Democrats
Opinion | JD Vance, D.E.I. Candidate
  + stars: | 2024-07-21 | by ( Lydia Polgreen | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +2 min
Ever since speculation began that Vice President Kamala Harris might replace President Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket, there has been a steady, ugly chorus on the right. The New York Post published a column that declared that Harris would be a “D.E.I. candidate, so is Vance. It depends, indeed, on how you understand the role of identity in shaping the opportunities that define anyone’s life. All politics is, at some level, identity politics — the business of turning identity into power, be it the identity of a candidate or demographic group or political party or region of the country.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Biden, Harris, , Vance Organizations: Democratic, New York Post, Republican
Takeaways from the RNC’s third night
  + stars: | 2024-07-18 | by ( Eric Bradner | Daniel Strauss | Gregory Krieg | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +14 min
Vance’s Republican National Convention speech capped a night Republicans spent prosecuting what they see as President Joe Biden’s biggest foreign policy failures and their consequences. Republicans used Wednesday night to introduce Vance and his life story to the nation. You owe President Trump answers!” Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn shouted at Cheatle, who continued to walk with her head down and ignore the senators’ criticism. Energy security and energy policy are in the governor’s comfort zone and that was on full display Wednesday night. When Trump finally did call Burgum, the former president told Burgum he would not be his running mate.
Persons: Donald Trump’s, Ohio Sen, JD Vance, Republican Party —, Joe Biden’s, , William Pekrul, Trump, Kai Trump, Vance, , Biden Vance, Trump’s MAGA, ” Vance, Usha, , Sen, Biden, Vance’s, Usha Vance, wasn’t, Usha Vance’s, JD, Yale Law School –, humanize, he’d, , Brett Kavanaugh, John Roberts, Peter Navarro, he’s, Navarro, Donald Trump, Paul Manafort, Manafort “, ” Trump, Cheryl Juels, Nicole Gee, , “ Joe Biden, ” Juels, Herman Lopez, Hunter Lopez, haven’t, Lopez’s, Alicia Lopez, Harris, ” Herman Lopez, Khizr, Ghazala Khan, ” Khizr Khan, Kimberly Cheatle, Tennessee Sen, Marsha Blackburn, Cheatle, ” Sen, John Barrasso, Blackburn, James Lankford, Kevin Cramer, Barrasso, Cheatle’s “, ” Cheatle, “ We’re, ” “, Cramer, Burgum’s, Doug Burgum’s, Achilles, Burgum, “ Hey, Treene, Morgan Rimmer Organizations: Wisconsin CNN, Republican Party, Republican, Convention, Gold Star, Jewish Harvard University, , Republicans, Republican National, Marines, Yale Law School, Trump, North American Free, Ivy, Ohio State University, Michigan, China, Senate, Yale University, Appeals, District of Columbia Circuit, Fox News, RNC, Trump White House, CNN Gold Star, Hamid, CNN, Biden, Secret, Fiserv, Tennessee, , Blackburn, Sens, North Dakota Gov, Energy, Republican National Convention Locations: Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Afghanistan, Ohio, Washington, American, Mexico, China, Iraq, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ukraine, San Diego, Florida, America, Kabul, States, United States
Video: Daniel Dale analyzes JD Vance’s speech
  + stars: | 2024-07-18 | by ( Daniel Dale | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: 1 min
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New York CNN —There’s a popular idea in political discourse known as the horseshoe theory. The idea is that if you map ideologies on a horseshoe-shaped spectrum, the far right and the far left are actually more closely aligned than the centrists on either side. Missouri Republican Sen. Josh Hawley is another young buck (44 is the new 24 in Congress) who’s all-in on Trump and positioning himself as an advocate for workers. “Pro-worker is raising the minimum wage, ensuring people get overtime, supporting paid sick and family leave,” Terri Gerstein, the Director of the NYU Wagner Labor Initiative, told CNN. “Playacting as working class by dressing up in jeans and acting aggrieved doesn’t do anything for real working people who are struggling.”
Persons: CNN Business ’, New York CNN —, we’ve, Ohio Republican Sen, JD Vance, , Donald Trump’s, Vance, Reagan, Lina Khan, Biden, ” Vance, Wall, Massachusetts Democratic Sen, Elizabeth Warren, New York Times ’ Ross, Bernie Bros, ” Vance isn’t, Missouri Republican Sen, Josh Hawley, who’s, Hawley, , Democrats –, , Rupert Murdoch, Ken Griffin, Trump, Liz Shuler, “ Sen, he’s, ” Terri Gerstein, NYU Wagner, “ Playacting Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Ohio Republican, Yale, Silicon, Massachusetts Democratic, New York Times, GOP, Missouri Republican, Trump, Democrats, Time, ” Media, Washington Post, AFL, , NYU, NYU Wagner Labor Initiative, CNN Locations: New York, Silicon Valley, Massachusetts, American
Eight years after its publication, Vance’s book has found its way back onto the bestseller lists, thanks to his appointment as Donald Trump’s running mate. Less than 24 hours after Trump announced Vance was his vice-presidential pick, “Hillbilly Elegy” shot to the top of Amazon’s bestselling books. Close notably was nominated for “Hillbilly Elegy” at both the Oscars and the Razzie Awards, which is the ceremony that infamously honors the worst in cinema every year. “Hillbilly Elegy” chronicles Vance’s childhood in Appalachia, which he wrote was plagued with poverty, abuse and his mother’s addiction. At the time of “Hillbilly Elegy’s” release, the book was widely discussed as an explanation for Trump’s rise among the White working class.
Persons: Vance, Ron Howard, Donald Trump’s, , Glenn Close, Amy Adams, Vance’s, Adams, Gabriel Basso, Trump’s, Goodreads, Sydney Bishop Organizations: CNN, Yale, Trump, Netflix, Sydney Locations: Appalachia
“It’s about time,” he said, adding the Vances “are going to represent a new generation of Americans.”The 2024 presidential campaign has seen three politicians of South Asian descent vying for the White House: Former South Carolina Gov. Since 2020, according to Pew, the number of eligible Asian American voters has increased by 2 million – roughly the population of Nebraska. According to the Asian American voter survey, the economy, education, inflation and immigration were “highly important” for Asian Americans this election cycle. Kumar said immigration is top of mind for many South Asian Republican voters because of the backlog facing millions of Hindu and Indian Americans who are waiting for green cards. Chen said the work must continue to engage with Asian American voters – many of whom are immigrant, first-time voters – to understand the key role they could play in the upcoming election.
Persons: ” Kumar, Donald Trump, Ohio Sen, JD Vance’s, Usha, , Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Haley, Ramaswamy, Vance, Usha Vance, Chintan Patel, United States Kamala Harris, ” Patel, Patel, reimagine, ” Trump, Christine Chen, ” Chen, “ We’re, Kumar, , Chen, “ It’s Organizations: CNN, Republican Hindu Coalition, Indian Coalition of, Republican National Committee, Yale, White, Former South Carolina Gov, Republican, Trump, Republican National Convention, Indian, Pew Research, Pew, Pacific Islander, AAPI, Advancing Justice, AARP, Voter Survey, American, Democratic Party, Asian, South Asian Republican Locations: Ohio, United States, South, Nebraska, Georgia
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