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A higher economic growth rate could theoretically boost the government's tax take without the need to raise taxes further, because overall revenues would be higher. The OBR now expects U.K. real GDP growth of 1.1% in 2024, followed by expansion of 2% in 2025, before falling to 1.5%. The Labour government did not immediately respond to CNBC's request for comment on further possible tax changes. 'Desperate' growth ratesThe U.K. economy barely grew in the third quarter, eking out a less-than-expected 0.1% expansion, data from the Office for National Statistics showed Friday. We've had 1% growth, or around 1% growth now since the Financial Crisis.
Persons: Rachel Reeves, James Smith, CNBC's, John Grieve, Reeves, Gieve, , Labour's, ING's Smith, We've Organizations: Treasury, Getty, Labour, Finance, ING, of, CNBC, National Insurance, Office, National Statistics, Gross Locations: London, England
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMore UK tax rises to come if the economy doesn't get moving, economist saysJames Smith, economist at ING, says U.K. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves' Mansion House reforms will be a key test of whether Labour can get the economy moving.
Persons: James Smith, Rachel Reeves Organizations: ING, Finance, Labour
Mike Kemp | In Pictures | Getty ImagesLONDON — The U.K. is likely to see interest rates drop at a faster pace than previously expected, according to economists who flagged key data releases that indicated inflationary pressures are finally easing. However, economists at Goldman Sachs in a Monday note forecast rate cuts "notably below market pricing." As a result, they see consecutive 25 basis point cuts taking the Bank Rate to 3% as early as September 2025, and to 2.75% in November next year. "Recent data have cemented expectations of another cut in interest rates in November. "That said, uncertainty around the economic outlook is high, and interest rate expectations will be sensitive to what the government announces in the Budget," Muir added.
Persons: Mike Kemp, Goldman Sachs, BOE, Price, , James Smith, Smith, David Muir, Muir, Keir Starmer, Rachel Reeves Organizations: of England, Labour, Bank of England's, BOE policymakers, Bank of England, ING . Services, Reuters, International Energy Agency, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Moody's, Finance Locations: City of London, London, United Kingdom
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Bank of England is still on track for an August interest rate cut, economist saysJames Smith, developed markets economist at ING, digests the Bank of England's decision to keep interest rates unchanged in June and discusses when it might finally cut.
Persons: James Smith Organizations: of England, ING, digests, Bank of
Opinion | MAGA Turns Against the Constitution
  + stars: | 2024-06-06 | by ( David French | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
You may not know this, but the United States is in the grips of another crisis — perhaps its greatest crisis of all. In addition to confronting a recession, a collapsing stock market, unemployment rates at a 50-year high and skyrocketing crime, the Constitution itself is now essentially dead. The economy is growing, the stock market is at historic highs and the unemployment rate is near a 50-year low. But crime rates have dropped after pandemic-era increases, and overall crime rates are substantially lower than they were in the relatively recent past: Violent crimes and property crimes are occurring at less than half the rates they were in the early 1990s. An overwhelming majority of Americans (77 percent) believe that crime is rising — one of the most pessimistic assessments in a generation.
Persons: Joe Biden’s, Sharp, James Smith Locations: United States, Joe Biden’s America, America
Top NewsAn Israeli airstrike on a makeshift tent camp for displaced Palestinians in Rafah, Gaza, killed at least 35 people on Sunday night, the Gaza Health Ministry said. The Israeli military said the strike was aimed at a Hamas compound. In a statement, the Israeli military said it was looking into reports that “several civilians in the area were harmed” by the airstrike and a subsequent fire. “What kind of a tent will protect us from missiles and shrapnel?” he said. “There was darkness and no electricity.”Doctors Without Borders said more than 15 dead people and dozens of wounded in the Rafah strike were brought to a trauma stabilization center that it supports in Tal as Sultan.
Persons: Tal, Israel, , Benjamin Netanyahu, Bilal Al Sapti, Sapti, , Sultan, Dr, James Smith, Smith, I’ve, Patrick Kingsley, Johnatan Reiss, Iyad Abuheweila, Aaron Boxerman Organizations: Gaza Health Ministry, Palestine Red Crescent Society, The New York Times, International Court, Justice, Friday, United Nations Locations: Israeli, Rafah, Gaza, Palestine, Tal
Video Authorities in Rafah, Gaza Strip, said that an Israeli strike had killed and wounded displaced Palestinians seeking shelter in the area. The Israeli military said that it had targeted two senior Hamas leaders. Credit Credit... ReutersAn Israeli airstrike on a makeshift tent camp for displaced Palestinians killed at least 35 people in Rafah on Sunday night, the Gaza Health Ministry said. The Israeli military said its operation was aimed at a Hamas compound. Doctors Without Borders said more than 15 dead people and dozens of wounded in the Rafah strike were brought to a trauma stabilization center that it supports in Tal as Sultan.
Persons: Tal, Sultan, Dr, James Smith, Smith, , I’ve, Patrick Kingsley, Johnatan Reiss, Aaron Boxerman Organizations: Authorities, Credit, Reuters, Israeli, Gaza Health Ministry, Palestine Red Crescent Society, The New York Times, Hamas, United Nations Locations: Rafah, Gaza, Palestine, Israel, Tel Aviv, Tal
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesLONDON — U.K. inflation could be about to hit a major milestone, with some forecasting that a sharp fall in the April print will take the headline rate below the Bank of England's 2% target. That would represent a plunge from the current level of 3.2% and could "make or break" a June interest rate cut, economists say. Ashley Webb, U.K. economist at Capital Economics, said that if the headline rate does fall below 2% in April, as he expects, it would be "momentous." "This will be crucial in determining whether the first interest rate cut from 5.25% will happen in June (as we expect) or in August. We think inflation will fall further, perhaps even to 1.0% later this year," Webb said in a Friday note.
Persons: Ashley Webb, What's, Webb, , BOE Governor Andrew Bailey, BOE, Ben Broadbent, James Smith, ING's Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, Bank of England's, Capital Economics, Bank of England, European Central Bank, ING Locations: Kingston, London, U.K
The Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica — nicknamed the “Doomsday Glacier” because its collapse could cause catastrophic sea level rise — is the world’s widest glacier and roughly the size of Florida. Thwaites, which already contributes 4% to global sea level rise, holds enough ice to raise sea levels by more than 2 feet. “This process of widespread, enormous seawater intrusion will increase the projections of sea level rise from Antarctica,” he added. Sea ice around Rothera Point, on Adelaide Island to the west of the Antarctic Peninsula. The researchers also used climate models to predict the potential speed of recovery from such extreme sea ice loss and found that even after two decades, not all the ice will return.
Persons: West Antarctica —, It’s, Thwaites, glaciologists —, Irvine —, , Eric Rignot, Finland’s, Rignot, Ted Scambos, it’s, James Smith, Noel Gourmelen, Gourmelen, Steve Gibbs, ” Louise Sime Organizations: CNN, National Academy of Sciences, Global, University of California, UC Irvine, University of Colorado, British Antarctic Survey, University of Edinburgh, BAS Locations: West Antarctica, Florida, Irvine, Antarctica, University of Colorado Boulder, Thwaites, Rothera, Adelaide
The cofounders of crypto mixer Samourai Wallet were charged with money laundering. The service anonymized hundreds of millions of dollars for dark web criminals, prosecutors said. AdvertisementThe cofounders of a cryptocurrency mixing service called Samourai Wallet — which rendered crypto transactions anonymous — have been arrested and charged with money laundering, according to an indictment unsealed Wednesday. Rodriguez and Hill were charged with conspiracy to commit money laundering and conspiracy to operate an unlicensed money transmitting business. Related storiesThe Samourai Wallet website has been seized.
Persons: Samourai's cofounders, , — Keonne Rodriguez, William Lonergan Hill —, Rodriguez, Hill, James Smith, haven't Organizations: Service, Prosecutors, Southern, of, FBI Locations: of New York, Portugal, DMs
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailProspects for the UK economy are getting brighter, economist saysJames Smith, developed markets economist at ING, discusses the economic recovery of the U.K., which notched 0.2% of growth in January.
Persons: James Smith Organizations: ING
Dwayne Johnson set two Guinness World Records. Dwayne Johnson created the largest layered dip in 2017. Christopher Polk/Getty ImagesIn January 2017, Dwayne Johnson and his team set the record for the largest layered dip. The dip, which weighed 540 pounds, was later donated to an organization for people who are experiencing homelessness. Johnson also set the record for most selfies taken in three minutes in 2015, with an impressive 105.
Persons: Dwayne Johnson, Christopher Polk, Bush's Beans, Johnson, James Smith, Akshay Kumar Organizations: World Records
They have discovered it started retreating rapidly in the 1940s, according to a new study that provides an alarming insight into future melting. The Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica is the world’s widest and roughly the size of Florida. “Once an ice sheet retreat is set in motion it can continue for decades, even if what started it gets no worse,” he told CNN. While similar retreats have happened much further back in the past, the ice sheet recovered and regrew, Smith said. “Further events arising more from the warming climate trend took things further, and started the widespread retreat we’re seeing today,” he told CNN.
Persons: Antarctica’s, Thwaites, Joshua Stevens, Julia Wellner, that’s, ” Wellner, you’re, James Smith, , , Smith, ” Thwaites, Jeremy Harbeck, NASA Ted Scambos, Martin Truffer, Truffer, Organizations: CNN —, National Academy of Sciences, El, West, NASA, Observatory, University of Houston, CNN, British Antarctic Survey, University of Colorado Boulder, University of Alaska Locations: West Antarctica, Florida, Pine, Antarctica, University of Alaska Fairbanks,
The quarterly decline followed a 0.1% fall in the previous three-month period and highlights how the economy has been hobbled by high interest rates that have been raised to reduce inflation. A recession is officially defined as two straight quarters of economic decline. Being in recession is hardly the ideal backdrop for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak as he mulls when to call the election. Higher interest rates help cool the economy by making it more expensive to borrow, thereby bearing down on spending. Though interest rates appear to have peaked, the central bank has expressed caution about cutting interest rates too soon as lower borrowing rates may bolster spending and put renewed upward pressure on prices.
Persons: Rishi Sunak, Jeremy Hunt, , Hunt, Rachel Reeves, James Smith Organizations: Conservative Party, National Statistics, Labour Party . Treasury, Treasury, Labour, Conservatives, Bank of England Locations: Britain
CNN —A former CIA employee was sentenced to 40 years in prison after carrying out the largest data leak in the agency’s history, the US Attorney’s Office of the Southern District of New York announced Thursday. He was also found guilty in 2023 of receiving, possessing and transporting child pornography, according to the US Attorney’s Office. He had worked as a computer engineer within the CIA’s Center for Cyber Intelligence, and created cyber tools that could grab data undetected from computers. A year later, investigators said Schulte stole cyber tools and source code and transferred them to WikiLeaks, according to court records. Schulte, who also allegedly lied to CIA and FBI investigators to cover his tracks, was arrested in August 2017 on child pornography charges.
Persons: CNN —, Joshua Schulte –, , Schulte, “ Joshua Schulte, Damian Williams, ” Williams, Joshua Schulte, Elizabeth Williams, James Smith Organizations: CNN, CIA, US, Office, Southern, of New York, WikiLeaks, CIA’s, Cyber Intelligence, FBI, AP “, Investigators Locations: New York
Aylo, Pornhub’s parent company, will pay a $1.8 million fine and compensate the sex trafficking victims as part of a deferred prosecution agreement. The company pleaded not guilty to the government’s charge of engaging in unlawful monetary transactions involving sex trafficking proceeds, although it acknowledged the illegal material was posted on its site and said it regrets that fact. The government did not accuse Aylo itself of violating any federal sex trafficking laws, but said the company should have known it was doing business with a group that was engaging in sex trafficking. And Aylo became aware of a federal lawsuit against the production company in 2017, court documents show. In a statement, Aylo, which is under new management since the alleged incidents occurred, said it “deeply regrets” that Pornhub hosted the content.
Persons: Pornhub, Aylo, , , James Smith, Solomon Friedman, ” Friedman Organizations: Washington CNN, Eastern, of, FBI, Aylo Holdings, CNN, Ethical Capital Partners Locations: Peace, of New York, Canada
BRUSSELS, BELGIUM - NOVEMBER 27: Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank speaks during the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) meeting in Brussels, Belgium on Nevember 27, 2023. (Photo by Dursun Aydemir/Anadolu via Getty Images)The European Central Bank on Thursday held interest rates steady for the second meeting in a row, as it revised its growth forecasts lower and announced plans to speed up the shrinking of its balance sheet. The latest staff macroeconomic projections see average real GDP expanding 0.6% in 2023, from a prior forecast of 0.7%. Headline inflation is meanwhile seen averaging 5.4% in 2023, 2.7% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025. Members see core inflation, excluding energy and food, averaging 5% this year and 2.7% in 2024, 2.3% in 2025, and 2.1% in 2026.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Dursun Aydemir, James Smith, CNBC's Joumanna Bercetche Organizations: European Central Bank, European Parliament's, Economic, Monetary Affairs, Getty, ECB, ING Locations: BRUSSELS, BELGIUM, Brussels, Belgium, Anadolu
WASHINGTON — Social media researcher Joan Donovan says she knows the exact moment her career began to go off the rails. "I got called into the principal's office and was questioned about why I'm talking about Facebook," Donovan said. In a statement to CNBC, Harvard Kennedy School Director of Public Affairs James Smith disputed Donovan's account of her departure. "The narrative is full of inaccuracies and baseless insinuations, particularly the suggestion that Harvard Kennedy School allowed Facebook to dictate its approach to research." Smith told CNBC that Harvard University and the Kennedy School continue to carry out misinformation and social media research to this day.
Persons: Harvard Kennedy, Joan Donovan, Donovan, John F, Frances Haugen, Haugen, Elliot Schrage, Schrage, Nick Clegg, Clegg, didn't, Douglas Elmendorf, Dean Elmendorf, Sheryl Sandberg, Sandberg, Elmendorf, Mark Zuckerberg, Priscilla Chan –, , Zuckerberg's, Guillermo S, Hava, Eleanor V, Wikstrom, , Chan, Public Affairs James Smith, Smith, Kennedy, Chan Zuckerberg, Donovan's Organizations: Harvard, Media Politics, WASHINGTON — Social, Harvard University, Kennedy School of Government, Dean's Council, CNBC, Meta, Facebook, Dean's, Kennedy School, Elmendorf, Harvard's Kennedy School, Twitter, Google, Washington Post, Initiative, Technology, Research, Whistleblower, Massachusetts, U.S . Department of Education's, Civil Rights, Harvard Kennedy School, Public Affairs, School, Kennedy, Media, Politics, Public, Tech, Chan Zuckerberg Initiative Locations: Malden, Harvard, Central, Dean's, FBarchive.org
NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) — Tennessee's decades-old aggravated prostitution statute violates the Americans with Disabilities Act, the U.S. Department of Justice announced Friday after an investigation, warning that the state could face a lawsuit if officials don't immediately cease enforcement. LGBTQ+ and civil rights advocates have long criticized the measure as discriminatory, making it almost impossible to find housing and employment due to the restrictions for violent sex offenders. The DOJ letter details several of the struggles of those with aggravated prostitution convictions. A lifetime sex offender registration can stop people from visiting with their grandchildren, revoke job offers, and severely limit housing options. Plaintiffs who had filed a lawsuit seeking to block the aggravated prostitution law in October said the DOJ's letter only further supports their efforts.
Persons: , , Bill Lee, , Kristen Clarke, Jonathan Skrmetti, David Rausch, Steven Mulroy, it's, Mulroy, ” Brandon James Smith, Skrmetti, “ OUTMemphis, Molly Quinn, OUTMemphis, Adrian Sainz Organizations: U.S . Department of Justice, American Civil Liberties Union, Transgender Law Center, Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division, of, DOJ, Associated Press Locations: Tenn, Tennessee, United States, Shelby County, Memphis, Memphis , Tennessee
But tax rises will be very hard to avoid for whichever party forms the next government, says James Smith, a former Bank of England economist who is research director at the Resolution Foundation, which focuses on issues affecting low and middle earners. For earlier governments, the main way to increase tax levels has been to raise the rate of national insurance - a payroll tax paid by employers and employees - and, in the Conservatives' case, higher value-added tax. Annual GDP growth averaged 2.0% from 2010-2019, compared with 3.0% from 1997-2007. Asked on Sunday about widespread reports of looming tax cuts, Hunt told Sky News: "Everything is on the table ... Higher-than-expected inflation has boosted tax revenue and overall GDP in cash terms, giving more leeway against fiscal targets as most public services' spending budgets are fixed.
Persons: Susannah Ireland, Jeremy Hunt, Rishi Sunak's, James Smith, Smith, Britain's, It's, Carl Emmerson, Hunt, Foundation's Smith, David Milliken, Mike Harrison Organizations: REUTERS, Labour Party, Bank of England, Organisation for Economic Co, Development, Britain, Conservatives, Fiscal Studies, Foundation, Reuters, Monetary Fund, Institute for Government, Sky News, British, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: City, London, Britain, Ukraine
UK economy flatlines as real estate activity drops
  + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +2 min
London CNN —Britain’s economy stagnated in the third quarter — its weakest performance in a year — as activity in the real estate sector fell, weighed down by high interest rates. The real estate sector — which accounts for 13% of UK economic output and is particularly sensitive to higher borrowing costs — has taken a knock this year. The data — which measures how efficiently the economy is making use of labor and capital — showed that UK productivity had barely improved since 2007. “Britain is a stagnation nation that has struggled to secure sustained economic growth since the financial crisis,” James Smith, research director at the Resolution Foundation, a think tank, wrote in a note Friday. UK finance minister Jeremy Hunt is due to outline the government’s plans to boost economic growth later this month.
Persons: , Paul Dales, , ” James Smith, Jeremy Hunt Organizations: London CNN, National Statistics, Bank of England, Capital Economics Locations: Halifax, Britain
REUTERS/Hannah McKay/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 6 (Reuters) - Extra fiscal headroom as a result of higher inflation is illusory and will not give any space for tax cuts when British Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt gives a fiscal update later this month, a think tank report said on Monday. The Resolution Foundation's analysis said that higher tax receipts and lower borrowing - both a result of sticky inflation - would increase Britain's fiscal headroom by 13 billion pounds ($16.09 billion), but added this was based on "implausible" public spending plans. That higher inflation is affecting public spending. Public spending will also have to increase more than is currently forecast to protect the budgets of some ministries in real terms in the coming years, the think-tank said. "It's increasingly clear that spending plans pencilled in for after the next election cannot be delivered," Smith said.
Persons: Jeremy Hunt, James, Suella Braverman, Hannah McKay, Hunt, James Smith, Smith, Alistair Smout, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Conservative, REUTERS, British, The Bank of England, Foundation, Thomson Locations: Manchester, Britain
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailExpect first rate cut from the Bank of England from the middle of next year, economist saysJames Smith, developed markets economist at ING, discusses the outlook for interest rates in the U.K.
Persons: James Smith Organizations: Bank of England, ING
The last Monetary Policy Committee meeting in September resulted in five members voting to pause, just outnumbering the four who sought another increase. So far, investors are not challenging the BoE's message that interest rates will stay high for a considerable period. BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill likened the outlook for monetary policy to the lofty, flat and long profile of Table Mountain during a visit to South Africa in late August. But economists expected little change in the BoE's previous forecasts that inflation will fall to 2% in two years' time. "Recent geopolitical events will probably induce a modicum of monetary policy caution, reinforcing the likelihood of unaltered policy settings," analysts at NatWest Markets said.
Persons: Hollie Adams, BoE, Andrew Bailey, James Smith, Smith, BOE, Huw Pill, Pill, Bailey, Rishi Sunak, Price, William Schomberg, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Bank of England, City of, REUTERS, Reuters, ING, Investors, U.S . Federal, Monetary Fund, NatWest Markets, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, South Africa
LONDON, Oct 24 (Reuters) - The Bank of England is likely done with policy tightening and will leave Bank Rate at 5.25% on Nov. 2, according to the vast majority of economists polled by Reuters who did however caution the chance of another increase this year was high. Only 12 economists forecast a quarter point rise to 5.50% at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting. Inflation was expected to gradually decline across the forecast horizon but it won't reach target until Q2 2025, the poll showed. Around one-third of economists expected the Bank to act earlier. The BoE was forecast to reduce Bank Rate by 50 basis points in the fourth quarter, putting it at 4.50% by year-end.
Persons: James Smith, Elizabeth Martins, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, BoE, ING's Smith, Jonathan Cable, Prerana Bhat, Sujith Pai, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Bank of England, Reuters, Bank, ING, MPC, HSBC, United States Federal Reserve, European, Thomson
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