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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHousing market weakness is in the entry-level but move-up market's strong: Zelman and Associates CEOIvy Zelman, Zelman and Associates CEO, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the recent moves in mortgage rates, the solution to low supply in the entry-level housing market, and how optimistic Zelman is about government fixing the housing situation.
Persons: Ivy Zelman
Ivy Zelman shares her top homebuilder plays
  + stars: | 2024-10-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIvy Zelman shares her top homebuilder playsIvy Zelman, Zelman & Associates, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk her top homebuilder plays in the current market.
Persons: Ivy Zelman Organizations: Ivy, Zelman, Associates
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe are in a buyer's market for new housing construction, says Ivy ZelmanIvy Zelman, Zelman and Associates CEO, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the housing market, impact of lower mortgage rates, and more.
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Although steadily rising global temperatures and their effects are increasingly hard to ignore, Burt believes they're not yet factored into property values. Flood insurance costs will skyrocket since they're severely underpriced to climate risk, his research indicates. Related stories"I think that there's a lot of pent-up supply from folks, particularly who are being exposed to these ownership cost increases away from mortgage rates," Burt said. They'll then be prepared to either bear the burden of higher insurance costs, or sell. AdvertisementUnlike Ivy Zelman, who's another analyst with a knack for spying issues in the housing market, Burt doesn't think the Midwest is the best region for beach-dwellers to flee to.
Persons: David Burt, who's, Burt, they're, Ivy Zelman, Burt doesn't Organizations: Service, Business Locations: Georgia, Florida, New York
Leading real-estate analyst Ivy Zelman recently told Business Insider that entry-level houses are still about 20% more expensive than normal. While the unemployment rate remains relatively low, it has now risen for four straight months and appears to be accelerating. A higher unemployment rate is a troubling sign for employees, including those who have jobs and aren't looking to leave. In a tight job market, workers can demand higher raises since there aren't as many viable replacements for them if they left. Note that data for the cities is from June — the most current data obtained by Business Insider — while the national data is from July.
Persons: , shouldn't, Ivy Zelman, Jobs, Realtor.com Organizations: Service, Business, Street Locations: Realtor.com
"We've got a real headwind from climate change," Zelman told Business Insider in late July. AdvertisementThe two hottest days in recorded history were earlier this week, according to the Europe-based Copernicus Climate Change Service. Most scientists say that's due to climate change caused by humans, but even if it's a coincidental pattern, the trend of rising temperatures is undeniable. AdvertisementMidwestern cities are destined to overtake the 'Sun Melt'During the "great reshuffling" of the pandemic, warmer states in the Sun Belt region were among the biggest beneficiaries. The widespread advent of remote work allowed millions of people to relocate, and many moved in droves to warmer states in the Southern US.
Persons: , Zelman, she's, We've, I've, Sylvain Leduc, Daniel Wilson Organizations: Service, Zelman, Associates, Wall, Business, Van Lines, Federal Reserve Bank of San Locations: Europe, Southern, South, Carolinas , Tennessee, Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, South Carolina , Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, Texas, Midwest, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Miami, Ohio, Michigan , Illinois , Iowa, Wisconsin, Cleveland
Mortgage interest rates eased very slightly last week, but not enough to get today's potential homebuyers off the fence. Homebuyers are also likely waiting for interest rates to drop further. While mortgage rates don't follow the Fed exactly (they follow loosely the yield on the 10-year Treasury), rates will come down if investors believe inflation is easing. "We'd probably want to see mortgage rates come down 100 basis points, so I think if we had a five handle, even in the high fives, I think the market could see more momentum." Rates today are very slightly lower than they were last year at this time.
Persons: Joel Kan, Ivy Zelman, Kan Organizations: Mortgage, Association, Federal Reserve Locations: Hawthorn Woods , Illinois
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAffordability remain stretched in housing market but inventories are rising, says Ivy ZelmanIvy Zelman, executive vice president of Zelman & Associates, joins CNBC's 'The Exchange' to discuss the "wonky" housing market, nationwide trends in home inventories and prices, and more.
Persons: Ivy Zelman Ivy Zelman Organizations: Zelman, Associates
Median rent for one-bedroom apartments in the US declined again in April, according to @Zumper. AdvertisementLandlords aren't able to charge tenants more because apartment supply is surging across the nation at the highest rate in decades, according to Zumper. A flood of supply should keep rent growth in check for the remainder of the year and even into 2025, in Zumper's view. Below are the 28 US cities where rent for a one-bedroom apartment is cheaper than it was in March, according to Zumper. Along with each are its month-over-month and year-over-year rent changes, average rent price, and national rent ranking among the top 100 markets in the nation.
Persons: , iM2zdLRQMA — James Faris, @JamesFaris_, Ivy Zelman, Anthemos Georgiades, Zumper Organizations: Service, Business, Federal Reserve, Apple, Big Apple Locations: New York City, York City
Home affordability has also been crippled by a combination of limited home supply and resilient demand due to solid wage growth, Zelman noted. Rent growth fell again on a year-over-year basis in April, according to a new report from real-estate site Zumper. And Zelman found that wage growth will outpace that of rent this year. AdvertisementOwning a home costs an average of 9% more on a square-foot basis than renting, according to Zelman & Associates. Along with each is the per-square-foot cost premium of owning compared to renting, according to Zelman & Associates.
Persons: , Ivy Zelman, I've, Zelman, Zelman isn't Organizations: Service, Zelman, Associates, Business, Wall, Toll Locations: Houston, Tampa
Top researcher Ivy Zelman shared where home prices are heading next in this market. Here are 10 charts from Zelman's April report that help explain what's happening. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.
Persons: Homebuyers, Ivy Zelman, Organizations: Zelman's, Service, Point2, Business
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailExpect a gradual rebound in home sales: Zelman and Associates EVPIvy Zelman, Zelman and Associates executive vice president, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss how much Zelman is reading into the latest housing data, whether housing inventory is at more normal levels, and more.
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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe need a lot further decline in rates to reignite the existing home market, says Ivy ZelmanIvy Zelman, Zelman and Associates CEO, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the housing market, the impact of rising rates on existing home sales, future expectations, and more.
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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailYou really have to be a stock-picker in this market: Zelman & Associates CEOIvy Zelman, Zelman & Associates CEO, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss demand in the housing market, future expectations, and more.
Persons: Ivy Zelman Organizations: Zelman, Associates
In any case, one outcome that many hold with a high degree of certainty is that financial markets are going to feel pain if the "x-date" bell tolls. This $31 trillion debt ceiling argument "comes at the worst possible time," according to Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee. "Many past instances of debt limit standoffs have been resolved without significant market fallout," the strategists wrote in a recent note. That's according to LPL chief global strategist Quincy Krosby — she says it boils down to these three reasons. With recession risks climbing, Bank of America analysts slashed their 2023 outlook for oil prices.
Housing market expert Ivy Zelman and real estate investing pro Scott Trench approach the housing market from very different perspectives, but they can still see eye-to-eye on some things. The two real estate pros took different stances when it comes to the single family housing market, however. "BRRR" was a hit in a lower-rate environment, especially as housing prices climbed over the last few years. Ivy Zelman is a housing expert who identified the market bubble in the 2000s and called the housing market turnaround in 2012. The forthcoming recession is going to trump all other housing market price trends, she predicted, and there will either be a correction in interest rates or in housing prices.
This will drag 30-year mortgage rates — which track closely with 10-year Treasury rates because they typically have a lifespan of around 12 years — down to 6% or lower. One might argue that falling mortgage rates would also stimulate demand enough to meet the rise in supply, holding prices relatively steady. Now that's quite striking because mortgage rates are no longer at peak, but mortgage applications are still falling. Tight monetary policy and a pullback in lending will lead to a cooling labor market, he said, and that's bad for housing demand. Below is the National Association of Realtors' Housing Affordability Index, which takes into account incomes, home prices, and mortgage rates.
Before we rush into the weekend, let's check in with the slowing pace of the housing market, and what that means for the rest of the year's outlook. Another sign pointing to a softer housing market is lumber. But that's going to reverse in the decade ahead as Boomers age out of the housing market and post-Millennial generations shrink. What are you seeing in the housing market in your part of the country? In other news:A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., March 9, 2020.
Ivy Zelman predicted the housing market downturn in the 2000s and in 2022. When Ivy Zelman says the housing market is due for a turn, people tend to listen. Conditions look more balanced in other parts of the housing market, Zelman says. "We're not in the camp that a lack of inventory is a positive for the housing market," she said. "The housing market is not immune to what will ultimately be a recession with a credit crunch that has just begun," she said.
Taylor Swift in the "Bejeweled" music video. Taylor Swift has better due diligence than half of Silicon ValleyIt's SBF. Just when you thought the FTX debacle couldn't get any weirder, let's add Taylor Swift into the mix. What Taylor Swift album does Sam Bankman-Fried most identify with? Perhaps the most pressing question, however, as pointed out by senior finance editor Michelle Abrego, is this: How does Taylor Swift have better due diligence practices than half of Silicon Valley?
The Fed's fight against inflation has led to high mortgage interest rates, cooling housing demands. As demand falls, Ivy Zelman, a real-estate anaylist, said national home prices could fall by 20%. As long as mortgage rates remain elevated, Zelman said housing demand will continue to shrink — ultimately resulting in even steeper price cuts from sellers. This latest slide in rates is just 0.59% below the two-decade high that the rate hit just three weeks earlier. But as Zelman herself suggested, if the Fed continues with further rate hikes and mortgage rates remain elevated in 2023, this will become the likely culprit to a protracted housing slump.
Director of homebuilding research Alan Ratner says a housing market recovery will take years. But Zelman & Associates definitely called this housing market slump. "Every 25 basis point increase in mortgage rates is the equivalent of a 3% increase in home prices," Ratner said. That's partly because a steep drop in prices won't make the housing market heat up again right away. But it will be a gradual process because the housing market has been through a historically unusual period.
As demand fades in the housing market, price cuts have become widespread. However, despite more sellers cutting asking prices, home prices have still increased by 10.6% year-over-year. On an annual basis, Fannie Mae says house price growth will turn negative beginning in the second-quarter of 2023. According to Freddie Mac's Sam Khater, house price growth will average 6.7% in 2022 and then decline by 0.2% in 2023. With inventory levels at all-time lows, he believes supply and demand dynamics will give way to significant price declines nationwide.
Considering sales alone, these cities were among those that saw the most dramatic declines, according to data technology company Zonda. "There are many forces working against the housing market right now," Zonda Chief Economist Ali Wolf said in a report last week. By late spring, the markets were feeling the pain. In both Austin and Phoenix, home prices are rising at a pace 23% slower than they were last year, the report shows. Since late Spring, home prices in Phoenix have dropped 6.7% and in Austin, prices have dropped by over 10% since the end of May.
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