At first blush, it seemed to many to be the key to picking former President Donald Trump's lock on the Hawkeye State's Republican base. The alternative vote split roughly in two, leaving Republican Iowa firmly in Trump's hands as the first ballots of the 2024 presidential contest were cast. Trump does not thrive among suburban voters, a group that cost Trump nationally in 2020 and where Haley showed promise Monday. Haley, by contrast, beat Trump in Johnson County, Iowa, a burgeoning tract of homes and businesses along Interstate 80 south of Cedar Rapids. A week earlier, Trump volunteer Jackie Garlock looked around a similar hall in Mason City in northern Iowa on a snowy Saturday, convinced Trump would win.

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