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☆ Chief money managers are using the stock-market carnage to funnel into key sectors. Here's what they're buying.
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Thursday brought more negative news from the jobs market: unemployment insurance claims for the week ending July 27 were up by 14,000 from the previous week to 249,000. Stepping back from last week's weak data, chief investment officers and top strategists say the market is overreacting, and they're using this as a buying opportunity. Related storiesSimilarly, the manufacturing data is not as foreshadowing as it seems on the surface. "But the ISM manufacturing data can be a leading indicator of S&P earnings, particularly the new order number." "If you look at non-US stocks and you look at their valuations, they're trading at about 13 times earnings," Calcagni said.

Persons: Dow, we've, Philip Straehl, Morningstar, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Alicia Levine, Levine, it's, what's, Morningstar's Straehl, Simeon Hyman, Hyman, Donald Calcagni's, Calcagni Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, Institute for Supply, Business, BNY, Big Tech, Mercer Advisors Locations: Americas

☆ Daily Open: Stocks fall; 10-year Treasury yield drops; Apple beats Street while Amazon disappoints
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-02 | by ( Kevin Lim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. U.S. stocks retreatU.S. stocks fell sharply on Thursday as weaker-than-expected jobs and manufacturing data sparked concerns about a rapid economic slowdown. Treasurys gainThe benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4% for the first time since February as investors digested weak job numbers and braced for a September rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The 10-year yield last traded at 3.981%, down 12.3 basis points, while the two-year yield eased to 4.156%. Asian stocks tumbleJapanese stocks dropped 5.8% on Friday as Asia-Pacific markets reacted negatively to the sell-off on Wall Street.

Persons: Russell, Tim Cook, CNBC's Steve Kovach, Brian Olsavsky Organizations: CNBC, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Labor Department, Institute for Supply, Treasury, U.S . Federal Reserve, Nikkei, SoftBank, Mitsui, Marubeni, CSI, Services, Apple, Apple Intelligence, Olympics, Tech, CNBC Pro Locations: U.S, Asia, Pacific

☆ Daily Open: U.S. stocks fall; 10-year Treasury yield drops below 4%; Apple beats Street while Amazon falters
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-02 | by ( Kevin Lim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Stocks retreatU.S. stocks fell sharply on Thursday as weaker-than-expected jobs and manufacturing data sparked concerns about a rapid economic slowdown. The 10-year yield last traded at 3.981%, down 12.3 basis points, while the two-year yield eased to 4.156%. Looking ahead, Apple expects services to grow by about 14%. Apple CEO Tim Cook told CNBC's Steve Kovach the company has increased spending on Apple Intelligence to get it ready by fall.

Persons: Russell, Tim Cook, CNBC's Steve Kovach Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Wall, CNBC, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Labor Department, Institute for Supply, Treasury, U.S . Federal Reserve, Apple, Apple Intelligence, Tech, CNBC Pro Locations: New York City, Stocks

☆ Why the 'bad news is good news' trend didn't work with Monday's economic data
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-03 | by ( Jeff Marks | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Dell , Super Micro , Vertiv , and Club stock Eaton all fell. Utilities that fulfill the growing power demands of AI data centers, such as Vistra and Constellation Energy Corp , were also lower. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.

Persons: Jim Cramer, Industrials, —, Eaton, Dell, Jensen Huang, we're, Ferguson, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Mauricio Palos Organizations: CNBC, Institute for Supply, Federal Reserve, Utilities, Constellation Energy Corp, Nvidia, Body, Jim Cramer's Charitable, Eaton Corp, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: San Luis Potosi, Mexico

☆ Jobs data will steal the spotlight next week. What to watch for in 3 key labor reports
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-01 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

In this way, the nonfarm payroll report also offers clues on the near-term path of inflation. As always, payroll processing firm ADP will release its May private-sector jobs report before the government's nonfarm payroll report. On Tuesday, we'll get the latest JOLTS data, shorthand for the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey conducted by the Labor Department. Earnings A few noteworthy earnings reports set for next week include CrowdStrike and Hewlett Packard Enterprise after the close on Tuesday. A report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the US economy added 311,000 jobs in February.

Persons: industrials, Eaton, Locker, Salesforce, we've, FactSet, Dow Jones, we'll, Ferguson, OLLI, Campbell Soup, Brown, Forman, LULU, JM Smucker, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Joe Raedle Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Federal, Energy, Coterra Energy, Palo Alto Networks, Broadcom, Microsoft, Costco, Labor, Labor Department, Institute for Supply, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Body, Donaldson Company, DCI, Brands, Natural Foods, THOR Industries, ABM Industries, Vail Resorts, MTN, NGL Energy, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Getty Locations: Chicago, Palo, U.S, Bath, Toro, Miami , Florida

☆ The small-cap slump is getting historically long. Here's what needs to change for a rebound
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-30 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

"With yields holding firm at elevated levels , large caps continue to outperform small caps. Hopes for multiple rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year have dimmed after recent inflation readings showed signs of stickiness. An economy that is growing more slowly, but with cooler inflation, could be the combination small caps need. Small caps could also benefit from an uptick in the global economy that benefits areas like manufacturing that has heavy representation in the small-cap index. Investors who really want exposure to small caps could also look outside of the U.S. Wolfe Research analyst Rob Ginsberg said in a May 29 note to clients that global small caps are outperforming their U.S. counterparts and are poised for a potential breakout.

Persons: Russell, Todd Sohn, JC O'Hara, Roth MKM, Chad Miller, you've, Miller, Cayla, Seder, Mark Haefele, Solita, Angelo Kourkafas, Edward Jones, Rob Ginsberg, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: CNBC, ESG, Silicon Valley Bank, Federal Reserve, Big Tech, Companies, UBS, Institute, Supply, PMI, Investors, U.S . Wolfe Research Locations: Thrivent, Silicon

☆ Jim Cramer says Alphabet is a buy and the most undervalued large tech stock
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Jeff Marks | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. Jim Cramer suggested some of Apple's AI commentary Thursday night could be a factor in the Google parent's stock move. We continue to believe the market is underappreciating Coterra's ability to pullback production in natural gas in favor of oil. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER .

Persons: Jim Cramer, That's, Jim, Tom Jorden, Jorden, Nelson Peltz, Peltz, Jim Cramer's Organizations: CNBC, Apple, Conference, Nasdaq, Google, Federal Reserve, Institute for Supply, Coterra Energy, Diamondback Energy, Cinco, Cinco de Mayo, Constellation Brands, Corona, Modelo, Disney, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: U.S, Cinco de

☆ A renowned market bear who called the dot-com bubble warns the AI and economic recovery narratives fueling stocks are weak as analyst optimism sours — and says the Fed is fueling a bubble as valuation
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-06 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

About 45% of changes to S&P 500 analysts' earnings estimates are upgrades, as shown in the chart below, down from 50% in early 2023. AdvertisementSociete GeneraleHistorically, analyst optimism has been a good indicator for the economy's direction. Below is the S&P 500's year-over-year percentage change along with the analyst optimism measure. He says the S&P 500 is in a bubble fueled by AI optimism and could fall as much as around 60%. He sees potential downside of 39% for the S&P 500.

Persons: —, Albert Edwards, Edwards, Powell's, Ed Yardeni, Let's, There's, Jeremy Grantham, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch Organizations: Service, Societe Generale, Business, Street, Nasdaq, Generale, Conference, Institute for Supply, subsiding, Fed, repo, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bears, Rosenberg Research, policymaking

☆ Jim Cramer says Nelson Peltz's defeat is worrisome for Disney's stock and he wants to sell more
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-03 | by ( Jeff Marks | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. Disney wins: Disney was successful at fending off Trian Partners in Nelson Peltz's quest for two board seats at the company. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.

Persons: Jim Cramer, Nelson, Jim, Steve Cohen, We're, Michael Cembalest, Levi Strauss, Slim Jim, Conagra, Lamb Weston, There's, Jim Cramer's, Mickey Mouse, Joe Raedle Organizations: CNBC, Treasury, Institute for Supply, PMI, Disney, Trian Partners, Apple, JPMorgan, Procter, Gamble, Jim Cramer's Charitable, Walt Disney World, Getty Locations: Washington, Orlando , Florida

☆ A trusted indicator is fueling recession warnings from Jeremy Grantham and other gurus. What you should know about the Leading Economic Index.
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-21 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The Leading Economic Index fell for the 22nd consecutive month in January. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. The Leading Economic Index brings all of those together to gauge the future state of the economy across multiple dimensions, from growth and unemployment to consumer demand and homebuilding. Here's a screenshot showing the index's historic decline, from The Conference Board's latest release:AdvertisementThe Leading Economic Index has consistently declined ahead of previous recessions. There's no guarantee these four market veterans are right about the Leading Economic Index.

Persons: —, Here's, joblessness, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Jeremy Grantham, Jeffrey Gundlach, Gary Shilling, There's Organizations: Service, Business, Conference Board, Treasury, Manufacturers, Institute, Supply, The Conference, Board, Rosenberg Research, North, DoubleLine, Conference Locations: North American

☆ 'You are now living through Tech Bubble 2.0': A 32-year market vet warns stocks are doomed to suffer substantial losses with valuations at historic highs and the economy on the verge of recession
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-27 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

"For those of you younger than us who did not live through the Tech Bubble of the late 1990s, you are now living through Tech Bubble 2.0. As a reminder, the NASDAQ fell about 80% when that bubble burst in the mild recession of the early 2000s," Wolfenbarger said. AdvertisementThere is evidence that backs up Wolfenbarger's bubble claims, starting with fairly standard valuation measures like the Shiller cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio. While it's not as high as it was during the dot-com bubble, it's higher than it was in 1929 — and is at one of its most elevated levels in history. Bank of AmericaAs for what will finally deflate the bubble, Wolfenbarger is expecting a recession to hit the US economy.

Persons: —, Microsoft —, Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, Wolfenbarger, it's, America's Michael Hartnett, Louis Fed Wolfenbarger, Jeremy Grantham, Adam Karr, Orbis Investment Management Karr, It's Organizations: Service, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Business, JPMorgan, ClearBridge, Tech, NASDAQ, ClearBridge Investments Bank, America's, Bank of America, Bank of America's Global, Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing, Orbis Investment Management, Global Fund, Federal Reserve Locations: Japan

☆ Powell says Fed to move 'carefully' on interest rates with risks 'more balanced'
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"Having come so far so quickly, the (Federal Open Market Committee) is moving forward carefully, as the risks of under- and over-tightening are becoming more balanced." But his remarks also reflected increased confidence that the current 5.25%-5.50% policy rate may well be adequate to complete the job. The Fed meets on Dec. 12-13 and is expected to leave its benchmark rate unchanged for the third meeting in a row. "The pace at which the economy is creating new jobs remains strong, and has been slowing toward a more sustainable level ... Shortly before Powell delivered his remarks, a key reading on the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector showed activity there remained subdued and factory employment declined.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Powell, Helene Gayle, Lisa Cook, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Monetary Fund's, REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Spelman College, Fed, Spelman, Institute, Supply Management's, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Atlanta

☆ 'We are at the very onset of a recession right now': A top Wall Street strategist shares a 'huge red flag' signaling the economy is heading into a downturn — sending stocks tumbling as much as 20%
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-18 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Right now, it's up 7.7% year-over-year and continues to rise, prompting Kantrowitz to say it's a "huge red flag for me." Still, while the unemployment rate is up to 3.9% from its 3.4% low earlier this year, unemployment claims have not spiked meaningfully. Piper Sandler"Regarding employment – I see enough data that has me convinced that we are at the very onset of a recession right now," Kantrowitz said. If the unemployment rate continues to tick upward, even slightly, it will likely trigger the Sahm rule mentioned above. Plenty of market onlookers see a recession in 2024, including DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffery Gundlach and Citadel founder Ken Griffin.

Persons: Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Sahm's, It's, Claudia Sahm, Jon Wolfenbarger, Wolfenbarger, Jeffery Gundlach, Ken Griffin, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Brian Moynihan Organizations: Federal, Business, Institute for Supply Management's, Investor, Federal Reserve, National Federal, Independent, Treasury, Conference, DoubleLine Capital, Citadel, Bank of America

☆ A renowned market bear who called the dot-com bubble shares 3 warning signs that the economy is crumbling despite upbeat data, putting stocks at risk of further downside
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-28 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The S&P 500 is up 7.6% year-to-date. Only about 40% of analyst ratings changes for S&P 500 companies are upgrades. While the S&P 500 is up over 7% this year, Edwards cited it as another data point covering up the economy's true health. Their outsized contribution to the index's performance is evidenced by the returns of the S&P 500 equal-weighted index, Edwards said, which is down by 5% this year. In the equal-weighted index, each individual S&P 500 constituent's performance impacts the overall index's performance the same.

Persons: Albert Edwards, " Edwards, Edwards, Freddie Kruger, —, Russell Organizations: Generale Chief Global, Societe Generale They're, Societe Generale, National Federation for Independent, Institute, Supply, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, RBC Capital Markets

☆ US manufacturing output rises solidly in September
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Manufacturing output rose 0.4% last month, the Federal Reserve said on Tuesday. Durable goods manufacturing output rose at a 2.3% annualized rate, which was offset by a 2.4% pace of decline in nondurable manufacturing. Motor vehicle and parts output rose 0.3% last month after declining 4.1% in August. Mining output rose 0.4% after gaining 0.2% in August. Overall industrial production rose 0.3% in September after being unchanged in August.

Persons: Kamil Krzaczynski, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Reuters, United Auto Workers, UAW, General Motors, Ford, Chrysler, Institute for Supply, Utilities, Thomson Locations: Normal , Illinois, U.S, Kentucky

☆ Yen gets some relief as dollar pulls back overnight
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The yen got some much needed relief as the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields both steadied slightly lower on Thursday after mixed U.S. economic data overnight had markets lowering the odds of the Federal Reserve's raising interest rates again this year. The dollar index , which tracks the greenback against six peers, held near overnight levels at 106.78. Longer dated U.S. Treasury yields eased from 16-year highs after the data and remained off recent highs in the Asian morning. The yen, which tends to be sensitive to U.S. yields, last traded around 148.85 yen , down almost 0.2% from late U.S. levels and off Tuesday's low of 150.165. Sterling traded at $1.2139, off of Wednesday's fresh low of $1.20385 per dollar.

Persons: Kyle Rodda, Sterling Organizations: U.S, Treasury, ADP, Institute for Supply, PMI, Bank of, Japan Locations: Kawasaki, Japan, U.S

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. While the 30-year Treasury yield crossed above 5% for the first time since August 2007, the 10-year and five-year yields hit their highest since 2007. The CBOE volatility index (.VIX), Wall Street's "fear gauge", briefly hit a five-month high and topped its long-term average of 20. A day after U.S. job openings unexpectedly rose in August, investors will closely monitor September ADP National Employment data at 8:15 a.m. Reporting by Ankika Biswas and Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Kevin McCarthy, Mark Haefele, Haefele, Austan Goolsbee, Michelle Bowman, Eli Lilly, LLY.N, Mike Mason, Ankika Biswas, Shashwat Chauhan, Shounak Dasgupta Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Apple, U.S . House Republicans, Treasury, Microsoft, Nvidia, Dow e, Nasdaq, Federal, UBS Global Wealth, Institute, Supply, PMI, Chicago, Traders, Dow, Intel, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Bengaluru

☆ Morning Bid: This Fed's not for turning
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The U.S. Federal Reserve building is pictured in Washington, March 18, 2008. That thought was echoed by Cleveland Fed chief Loretta Mester, who said: "I suspect we may well need to raise the fed funds rate once more this year." Either way, this is not the sound of a Fed who thinks the inflation battle is won. Fed hawkishness, however, has kept futures markets pricing a 50-50 chance of another quarter point rate hike to the 5.50-5.75% range by year-end. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Jason Reed, Mike Dolan, they've, Michelle Bowman, Loretta Mester, Michael Barr, hawkishness, Raphael Bostic, Susan Fenton Organizations: U.S . Federal, REUTERS, Reserve, Cleveland Fed, Institute, Supply, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia, Big Tech, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Treasury, McCormick, PMI, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington, U.S

☆ US durable goods orders beat expectations; core capital goods rebound
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Durable goods are seen on sale in a store in Los Angeles, California, U.S., March 24, 2017. Part of the surprise increase in durable goods orders reported by the Commerce Department on Wednesday, however, likely reflected higher prices as inflation picked up last month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast durable goods orders falling 0.5% last month. These so-called core capital goods orders were previously reported to have edged up 0.1% in July. Core capital goods shipments rebounded 0.7% after falling 0.3% in July.

Persons: Lucy Nicholson, Priscilla Thiagamoorthy, Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Commerce Department, BMO Capital Markets, Reuters, Machinery, Institute, Supply, PMI, United Auto Workers, General Motors Co, Ford, Thomson Locations: Los Angeles , California, U.S, WASHINGTON, Toronto, muddle

☆ A 31-year market vet shares 2 signals that show a recession is still on the way — and warns the S&P 500 still has 48% downside as valuations remain near the richest levels in history
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-23 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

One is that the Institute for Supply Management's Purchasing Managers' Index continues to show signs of slowing economic growth. "Real GDI has never fallen three quarters in a row without the economy being in a recession," Wolfenbarger said. This partially informs his call for the S&P 500 to fall to around 2,250, which would represent 48% downside from current levels. When it comes to Wolfenbarger's 48% sell-off call, it's well outside the mainstream of where strategists see stocks going. With valuations high, a meaningful recession could make that three times, as Wolfenbarger is warning.

Persons: Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, Wolfenbarger, Costa, Louis, Warren Buffett Organizations: JPMorgan, Bull, Institute for Supply Management's, Crescat, Federal Reserve Bank of St, downturns . Federal Reserve Bank of St Locations: downturns .

☆ Rise in services, manufacturing prices spur fear that Fed has more work to do on inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

On Wednesday, the ISM reported that its services prices index for August rose to 58.9%, a four-month high and 2.1 points above the July level. That comes on the heels of the August manufacturing prices reading of 48.4%, which was below the dividing line for expansion but still 5.8 points ahead of July's level. Following the services reading, traders in the fed funds futures market increased the odds for a November Fed rate hike to about 53%, according to the CME Group . That coincided with a jump in the rate-sensitive two-year Treasury yield to 5.033%, and a slide in stocks that sent the S & P 500 down by as much as 0.9%. "With oil and food prices also higher, this [ISM services] report points to a Fed whose job to quell inflation is certainly not yet quite finished."'

Persons: Quincy Krosby, Susan Collins Organizations: Federal Reserve, Institute, Supply, CME Group, Treasury, LPL, Boston

☆ Stock futures are little changed as Wall Street shifts focus back to path of interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on August 31, 2023 in New York City. Stock futures were little changed late Wednesday as renewed concern swirled on Wall Street over the course of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, and whether policymakers will enact another hike this year. S&P 500 futures ticked down 0.07% while Nasdaq futures declined 0.1%. While 93% of interest rate traders foresee no change at September's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, expectations of an additional interest rate hike at the November meeting rose above 40%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. GameStop added more than 6% after reporting second-quarter results, while ChargePoint Holdings fell more than 10% after missing revenue estimates.

Persons: Jeffrey Roach Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Apple, Nvidia, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Institute, Supply Management's, LPL, GameStop, ChargePoint Holdings Locations: New York City

☆ 'The vast bulk of companies are in big trouble': A renowned bear who called the dot-com bubble warns a recession is still on the way as bankruptcies rise — threatening to sink even the mega-cap stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-02 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

While big firms have survived high rates, Edwards said a recession would eventually hurt them too. Here are the effective interest rates for a few cohorts of the S&P 1500. The Federal Reserve's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey shows 49% of banks are tightening lending standards for small companies. They weren't able to lock into long-term loans at almost zero interest rates and pile it high in the money markets at variable rates," Edwards said. "In our view, the current savings rate is unsustainably low, and the main downside risk to growth is that the savings rate will suddenly move higher."

Persons: Societe Generale's Albert Edwards, Edwards, haven't, Louis, that's, we'll, Brian Rose, Rose, Piper Sandler, it's Organizations: Societe Generale's, Societe Generale, American Bankruptcy Institute, Generale, Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Institute, Supply Management's, UBS Americas, UBS Companies

☆ Wall Street is declaring victory too early — the US is still headed for a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

In theory, these higher interest rates push down demand and slow inflation by forcing companies to cut prices to attract stretched-thin customers. And Americans have been spending right through the higher interest rates: Personal consumption expenditures and retail sales numbers have continued to forge upward. But eventually, this attitude will wane as people realize that the higher rates aren't a flash in the pan. The Treasury yield curve measures the different interest rates that are paid out on various bonds issued by the US government. It's the same story every time, both Kantrowitz and Rosenberg say: Investors are bad at pricing in a recession before it unfolds.

Persons: Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Milton Friedman, Bob Doll, Doll, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Tom Essaye, Essaye, Granger, Kantrowitz, Jerome Powell, William Edwards Organizations: Philadelphia Fed, Bank of America, JPMorgan, Consumer, Crossmark Global Investments, BlackRock, Silicon Valley Bank, Rosenberg Research, Fed, Auto, Wall, CPI, Institute for Supply Management's, Treasury, Royal Bank of Canada Locations: Silicon, YOLO

☆ A former BlackRock stock chief shares 3 indicators that tell him it's too early to abandon his recession call despite the economy's strength — and warns the stock market's rally is doomed for a revers
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-12 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The inverted yield curve and The Conference Board's LEI are two indicators that inform his view. Instead, investors should be paying attention to indicators like the Treasury yield curve, The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, and money growth. Here's the yield curve. And the start of a recession typically comes a bunch of of months after the yield curve inverts. The yield curve didn't invert until less than a year ago.

Persons: Bob Doll, LEI, Doll, Wall, — Bank of America's Michael Gapen, Michael Feroli —, we're, Louis, It's, Rosenberg Research's David Rosenberg, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Greg Boutle, Tom Lee Organizations: Federal Reserve, — Bank of America's, Crossmark Global Investments, BlackRock, Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Fed, Louis Investors, Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg, BNP, Institute for Supply, Institute for Supply Management, of Labor Statistics Locations: Wells

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