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What the charts say about Nvidia before earnings
  + stars: | 2024-11-19 | by ( Todd Gordon | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Since early last year Nvidia (NVDA) has become the Super Bowl of earnings and like the actual big game, it comes right at the end of the season. Fundamental outlook The analyst community is looking for Nvidia to report 75 cents in EPS on $33.13 billion in revenue, according to FactSet. Nvidia charts The prior quarter's growth rates are coming down from astronomical levels of multiple hundreds of percentage points. As a result Nvidia sold off on Aug 28 from around the $130 level all the way down to $101.50. Hedge on Nvidia, just in case We're looking at buying a Nov 22nd expiration $140 / $130 put debit spread, currently trading at $2.88.
Persons: Blackwell, NVDA, Elliott, Todd Gordon, Gordon Organizations: Nvidia, Blackwell, Philadelphia Semiconductor, Inside Edge Capital Management, NVDA, Inside Edge, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: NVDA
The small cap Russell 2000 index contains domestic companies that should benefit in a protectionist, on-shoring environment as long as inflation and rates stay contained. The monthly chart of the Russell 2000 shows a pending breakout from all-time highs of 2,459. Put in simpler terms the Russell 2000 small cap index has underperformed the large cap S & P 500 index for the past 13 years. The small cap Industrial ETF just broke from a consolidation around $135 and is still in the earlier stages of the expansion. The forward valuation is 28 times 2025 earnings so not egregious for this high growth small cap industrial name.
Persons: Russell, Elliott, Todd Gordon, Gordon, POWL Organizations: Utilities, MGE Energy, Powell Industries, Edge, Inside Edge, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
There is uncertainty abound about the future direction of the stock market heading into what many say is the most important presidential election of our lifetimes. In the elevated volatility levels that began in late September heading into the election. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX in black) trades with an inverse relationship to the S & P 500. As the S & P 500 goes lower, people become fearful as they buy put option protection pushing the general level of option prices (both puts and calls) higher. This creates the inverse relationship of VIX and S & P 500.
Persons: NVDA, we'll, we're, Todd Gordon, Gordon, Schwab Organizations: Nvidia, Google, Inside Edge, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: NVDA
The stock is consolidating just below all-time highs and if Netflix's move after earnings is any indication, I think SPOT should punch through to new all-time highs. We're currently trading at $386, just below the all-time highs of $387 set back in 2021. The earnings trajectory for this company has been insane: 2022 EPS ($3.09) 2023 EPS ($2.95) 2024 EPS +$6.37 2025 EPS +$9.06 (est.) Netflix beat expectations and broke to new all-time highs led by new subs, 50% of which are coming from an ad tier. Meta is also in the communication sector sitting close to new all-time highs like NFLX, so the trend for this group remains firmly higher.
Persons: Todd Gordon, Gordon Organizations: Spotify, Apple, Sirius XM, Tactical Alpha, Netflix, Meta, Facebook, Inside Edge, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
The AI trade is powering ahead as the markets are seeing a rotation back into the semiconductor, hardware and software companies that are driving the revolution. One industrial company on my radar — that I don't yet have a position in — is Vertiv (VRT) . The company provides liquid cooling systems for data centers powering AI. I know it's a wide zone, but consider the percentage gain this stock has experienced in the past 2 years. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.
Persons: Todd Gordon, Gordon Organizations: Edge, Inside Edge, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations:
The charts indicate it may be time to look at chip stocks once again. However, the major semi names like Nvidia (NVDA) , Broadcom (AVGO) and AMD (AMD) have not actually fallen significantly in this rotation. Before we get into the specifics of Broadcom, let's take a look at the rotation out of semis starting in early August. Broadcom's chart Broadcom is a key holding in both my dividend and growth portfolios at Inside Edge Capital. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.
Persons: swoon, we're, I've, you've, Todd Gordon, Gordon, AVGO Organizations: Semiconductor, Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, CNBC Pro, let's, I've, Edge, Inside Edge, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
Before we get started, it's important to point out that I believe that broader equity markets remain in a secular bull market with global central banks' easing monetary policy amid a backdrop of a boom in artificial intelligence that carries equity markets significantly higher in coming quarters. But the key in my opinion was that real interest rates were going higher. The way I'm defining 'real interest rates' is the prevailing nominal yield on a bond, the 10-year Treasury in this example, adjusted by the expected 10-year inflation level. Put simply, real interest rates are how much you actually earn on a fixed income investment after adjusting for inflation. So my outlook is that gold will continue to rally alongside equity markets.
Persons: let's, Todd Gordon, Gordon, HMY Organizations: Harmony, Equity, Treasury, Stock, Edge, Inside Edge, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: South
The Chinese central bank unrolled the most significant stimulus program since the COVID-19 pandemic and Chinese equities are starting to show signs that the long history of underperformance relative to western equities could possibly be on borrowed time. The name that has already demonstrated leadership that we want to focus on should this move into Chinese names continues is Tencent Holdings (TCEHY) . Before we get further into the company specifics it's important to reiterate that Chinese equities have under-performed U.S. equities since 2007. The goal of the program according to Chinese officials is to return the economy to a 5% growth rate. Turning to the focus company Tencent Holdings (TCHEY) is a multinational technology conglomerate listed on the Hong Kong exchange since 2004.
Persons: TCHEY, Todd Gordon, Gordon Organizations: Tencent Holdings, People's Bank of China, Hong, Inside Edge, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: China, Hong Kong
I wonder if this is collectively the same group that doubted the bull market when it was rallying on narrow breadth led by the Mag 7. Today we'll revisit Meta (META) , the second largest market cap name in the sector behind Alphabet. I currently hold a 7% target allocation in my Tactical Alpha Growth (TAG) portfolio and a 2% target allocation in my Strategic Income & Growth (SIG) portfolio at Inside Edge Capital. -Todd Gordon, Founder of Inside Edge Capital, LLC DISCLOSURES: ( Gordon owns META in his wealth management company Inside Edge Capital. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.
Persons: Elliott, I'm, Zuckerberg, Todd Gordon, Gordon Organizations: Netflix, Spotify, CNBC Pro, Alpha, Edge, Inside Edge, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
Market Navigator: Trading On Holding to the upside
  + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarket Navigator: Trading On Holding to the upsideTodd Gordon, Inside Edge Capital founder, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss how to trade On Holding to the upside.
Persons: Todd Gordon Organizations: Inside Edge Capital
Then on July 11, things really got started as June CPI came in below expectations and the outlook for the first Fed rate cut became significantly more likely. Let's drill down into the sectors that makeup the Russell 2000 to see who's leading and lagging since that July 5th turning point. Let's find out who is actually profitable and could maintain the rally after the initial shine of a fresh rate cut wears off. Where to look in small caps A big component of the Russell 2000 based on market capitalization representation is health care at 18.7%. Should the Fed strike a dovish tone after the first rate cut I will be shopping for quality names.
Persons: Russell, Piper Sandler, Hamilton Lane, Jefferies, JEF, Todd Gordon, Gordon, ARES Organizations: Nasdaq, Inside Edge, CNBC PRO, Ares Management, Fed, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: financials
Stocks have made a nice comeback after testing support last week in the wake of a violent summer swoon tied to the yen carry trade. I run four equity portfolios at Inside Edge Capital, the most actively managed is appropriately named "Active Opps." In this article I'll cover the technical formation of the resistance zone as well as the option hedge we're using. If this is an ill-fated rally, or a so-called bear market rally, my bet is it will fail around this zone. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.
Persons: Nvidia's, Todd Gordon Organizations: Edge, Nasdaq, Inside Edge, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
S & P down 5.50% here, headlines of a Nikkei crash, and another great Yen carry unwind happening. I traded for a hedge fund and served as senior technical analyst for an foreign exchange company during the great financial crisis of 2008 that saw a severe yen carry unwind. If the line is headed south the dollar is weakening relative to the yen, and the yen is strengthening relative to the dollar. I believe that the July 11th CPI print that came 0.1% below expectations was the culprit to this whole yen carry unwind. Could this yen carry unwind move further?
Persons: it's, Todd Gordon Organizations: Nikkei, Markets, Inside Edge, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
To start let's examine the 200-day moving average on the daily chart below shown as a dashed blue line. Looking back to the most recent correction in April, that was the support level of the price-to-moving average spread: 34%. We could be approaching a support level based on this analysis. This could occur by price continuing to move lower along with the moving average trending higher as the recent higher price readings factor into the average. The 50-day moving average of the daily volume totals is clearly in a decline since April.
Persons: Steve Eisman, Eisman, We're, Todd Gordon, Gordon, NVDA Organizations: CNBC, Nvidia, Jan, Edge, Inside Edge, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: NVDA
This reaction is especially encouraging, as it's happening during a tumultuous market environment with lots of geopolitical and domestic political uncertainty. Looking at Spotify, we own it in our growth portfolio at Inside Edge Capital, first adding the position in February 2023. Judging by this post-earnings reaction, I see the stock moving above $400 in coming months. -Todd Gordon, Founder of Inside Edge Capital, LLC DISCLOSURES: Gordon owns SPOT personally and in his wealth management company Inside Edge Capital. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.
Persons: Todd Gordon, Gordon Organizations: Spotify, Netflix, Communication, Edge, Inside Edge, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
Shares of Hims & Hers (HIMS) , a digital consumer-facing health-care company, look poised to break out to a new all time high, according to the charts. HIMS announced in May a controversial weight loss injection product to compete with Lilly's Ozempic and Novo Nordisk's Wegovy. HIMS is not only marketing weight loss drugs, it has over one million subscribers using a wide variety of treatments. It's no secret that the total addressable market for weight loss drugs is gigantic. he volume was massive that day at over 70 million shares traded with average daily volume at round 18 million.
Persons: Howard Marks, HIMS, Lilly's, We've, Goldman Sachs, Eli Lilly's, Todd Gordon, Gordon Organizations: Capital Management, Novo Nordisk's Wegovy, Edge, Inside Edge, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBitcoin could still hit over $100,000: Inside Edge Capital's Todd GordonHosted by Brian Sullivan, “Last Call” is a fast-paced, entertaining business show that explores the intersection of money, culture and policy. Tune in Monday through Friday at 7 p.m. ET on CNBC.
Persons: Capital's Todd Gordon, Brian Sullivan, Organizations: CNBC
That pullback has materialized and according to our Elliott Wave analysis of the bitcoin chart, support has possibly been formed in the zone of $59k - $49k. Looking at the 3-chart overlay below you'll find bitcoin, gold, and US 10-year yields since 2020. First is that gold and Bitcoin (blue and orange) have a very close positive correlation. Pulling it all together higher rates have a negative impact on all three; bitcoin, gold, and the stock market, which are all showing a positive relationship in recent months. In summary, being very bullish on the stock market, I would like to see bitcoin and gold move higher along with lower US yields.
Persons: Bitcoin, Elliott, Todd Gordon, Gordon, IBIT Organizations: Tactical Alpha, Edge, Inside Edge, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: bitcoin
Here's an update on the chart in a breakout shoemaker that is giving Nike a run for its money. In May, I wrote about On Holding AG (ONON) ahead of its earnings with a buy recommendation. You'll notice that the stock popped on the week of May 14th following the earnings report above the 2023 highs of $36.90. Looking at the valuation, NKE is trading about 26 times 2024 expected earnings and 25 times 2025 expected earnings. DECK is ranging from 10% to 20% revenue growth from the same period last year and ONON is running from 20% to 33% revenue growth.
Persons: NKE, outperformance, ONON, Roger Federer, Todd Gordon, Gordon Organizations: Nike, Holding, Inside Edge, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
Meta poised for another breakout, according to the charts
  + stars: | 2024-06-18 | by ( Todd Gordon | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Meta (META) is about 5% from all-time highs and technically set up for a move to break to a new record. Since then during its 'year of efficiency' free cash flow has been built back to about $11-$13 billion per quarter for a yearly cash flow of about $50 billion. Meta is already making significant progress as its AI-generated content recommendation systems on Instagram Reels has made sharing among users increasingly popular. Analysts are expecting Meta to grow earnings by 14% for the next two years and revenues by about 12%. -Todd Gordon, founder of Inside Edge Capital, LLC DISCLOSURES: (Gordon owns META personally and in his wealth management company Inside Edge Capital Management, LLC Charts.)
Persons: we've, Todd Gordon, Gordon Organizations: Inside Edge, Reality Labs, Meta, Nvidia, Apple, Alpha, Inside Edge Capital Management
Back in April we covered the breakout in Southern Copper (SCCO) from $116 a share. I think it can hold that support again and, along with underlying copper futures, mount another attack on the highs. Copper demand just recently exceeded 25 million metric tons this year and with the explosion in AI and with the move towards clean energy, copper demand is expected to reach 40 million metric tons in the next 15 years. Turning to our focus stock, Southern Copper (SCCO), the chart is also pulling back into a very similar correction with anticipated support in the $115-$105 zone. Southern Copper beat their top and bottom line earnings estimates for Q1 in April, and looking ahead the growth is expected to continue.
Persons: Jensen Huang, We're, Todd Gordon, Gordon, SCCO Organizations: Nvidia, Elliott, Edge, . Southern, Inside Edge, Inside Edge Capital Management Locations: South America, China, .
Crowdstrike (CRWD) is a best-in-class cybersecurity leader that is poised for a technical breakout from resistance, despite being richly valued. One of the top concerns for firms in a post-pandemic world of remote, at-home workers is cybersecurity. Plus, the industry will also benefit greatly from the generative AI and cloud computing boom. And the long-term outlook for cybersecurity stocks is quite bullish as we power into what Nvidia's Jensen Huang refers to as 'the next industrial revolution'. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.
Persons: Cybersecurity, Morgan Stanley, Elliott, Nvidia's Jensen Huang, Todd Gordon, Gordon, CRWD Organizations: Alto Networks, Palo Alto Networks, Tactical Alpha, Edge, Inside Edge, Inside Edge Capital Management
Breaking down the market charts The S & P 500 broke out above the 2021 highs of 4,820 in the first two weeks of this year. Again, I don't know. I don't know. And I'm content to come before you and say I don't know and we can't know. This measures how much premium is embedded in the at the money puts and calls in the S & P 500.
Persons: Todd Gordon, Gordon Organizations: Nvidia, Inside Edge, Inside Edge Capital Management
Celsius (CELH) is an energy drink company that emerged from small cap status in 2020 to a $21 billion market cap company today. The stock carries a hefty valuation, but with the recent breakout following earnings last week I think it can rally even higher. I first wrote about Celsius here on Jan 17 as the stock was gearing up to break through the $63 and $69 resistance levels. The fundamental case Even so, last week's Q1 earnings report was met with some confusion. The chart below shows CELH quarterly revenue growth with the most recent quarter showing a slight lower-high based on that $355 million top line figure.
Persons: Red Bull, we'll, Todd Gordon, Gordon, CELH Organizations: Red, Monster Beverage, Elliott, Pepsi, Tactical Alpha, Inside Edge, Inside Edge Capital Management
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTop stocks to play if the markets pull back from their record highsJeff Kilburg, Founder and CEO of KKM Financial, and Todd Gordon, Founder of Inside Edge Capital, discuss how they're playing the markets with the major indexes near record highs.
Persons: Jeff Kilburg, Todd Gordon Organizations: KKM, Inside Edge
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