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Doubts that debt issuance conditions will be as strong in 2024 as they are now, with markets still divided on the direction of interest rates and the economy, have also driven the interest in doing deals now. Credit spreads are underpricing recession risk, said Nate Thooft, senior portfolio manager for Manulife Investment Management. Even if companies waited for rate cuts in 2024, declines in all-in funding costs may not necessarily follow, as credit spreads could then widen, said Amol Dhargalkar, managing partner at Chatham Financial. But Natalie Trevithick, head of investment grade credit strategy at Payden & Rygel, said economic data was too strong for cuts. Some $770 billion of investment-grade rated bonds mature in 2024 and over $900 billion in both 2025 and 2026, according to data by Morgan Stanley (MS.N).
Persons: Joshua Roberts, Maureen O'Connor, Edward Marrinan, Nate Thooft, Amol Dhargalkar, Natalie Trevithick, Morgan Stanley, Steven Oh, Matt Tracy, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Davide Barbuscia, Barbara Lewis Organizations: Federal Reserve, REUTERS, ICE, BMO Capital Markets, Investment, Informa Global, Treasury, Federal, Nikko Securities America, Manulife Investment Management, Chatham Financial, Deutsche Bank, PineBridge Investments, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Wells, U.S
These deals help banks meet capital requirements more efficiently, allowing them to keep lucrative businesses that would otherwise become unprofitable. Investors in these deals include lightly-regulated entities like hedge funds, shifting risk to the shadow banking sector. Credit risk transfer is another tool for them to pursue after the Fed’s clarification on what is allowed, said Cory Wishengrad, head of fixed income at Guggenheim Securities. That means Merchants sold the riskiest tranche of the loan portfolio, maximizing the capital relief it could get on it. Whether U.S. regulators will allow such insurance deals to qualify for capital relief is still untested, Staudinger said.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Blackstone, Jill Cetina, Jon, Claude Zucconi, Zucconi, Michael Barr, Barr, Banks, Missy Dolski, Sam Graziano, Graziano, Cory Wishengrad, Jed Miller, Taft, Morgan Stanley's, Morgan, Deborah Staudinger, Hogan Lovells, Staudinger, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Paritosh Bansal, Nick Zieminski Organizations: Blackstone Group, JPMorgan Chase, Merchants Bank of Indiana, US Bancorp, Investors, JPMorgan, Merchants Bank, Federal Reserve, Varde Partners, Financial, Guggenheim Securities, U.S . Bank, Fed, Reuters, Merchants, Thomson Locations: U.S, Wickersham, Europe, Indiana
The bad news prompted some bond investors to question whether Bayer should sweeten the terms of the deal or outright pull it, one of the sources said. The drug-to-pesticides group priced the investment grade bond on Thursday last week, with the deal closing on Tuesday. Bayer priced bonds with maturities between three to 30 years. It was the 10th largest investment grade bond deal by an industrial company this year and attracted more than $22 billion in orders, according to Informa Global Markets. The events were "not enough to trigger a material adverse change clause in bond documents for investors to ask to be paid back," said CreditSights' Brady.
Persons: Wolfgang Rattay, Bayer, Andrew Brady, CreditSights, JP Morgan, Wells, Brady, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Ludwig Burger, Mike Erman, Paritosh Bansal, Marguerita Choy Organizations: Bayer AG, REUTERS, Bayer, Nomura Holdings, Informa Global Markets, Citigroup, Nikko Securities America, RIC, Thomson Locations: Leverkusen, Germany, Seattle
And those workouts are becoming mathematically untenable even for private lenders. Borrowing costs for the CRE market have risen more than income, a situation prompted by the steepest jump in interest rates in decades. NO REAL OPTIONRising caution among private lenders will worsen the paucity of liquidity for property owners who have no real exit option. Some private lenders faced the risk of ending up paring their portfolios that were expensive to manage, he added. But the firm's head of commercial real estate economics Thomas LaSalvia said probability of a contagion effect was low.
Persons: Mike Comparato, Jeff Holzmann, Razmig Boladian, Claudia Faust, Alex Horn, Horn, Jay Hiemenz, Thomas LaSalvia, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Anna Driver Organizations: Realty Trust, RREAF Holdings, Rubicon Point Partners, Hawkeye Partners, Thomson Locations: Franklin, Texas
But they are going only as far as the safest bets in the junk category, bonds rated BB and B. Junk bond spreads, the additional interest rate investors demand over safe Treasury bonds, tightened sharply. The spreads of those rated BB and B, or the higher rungs of junk, had tightened 47-52 basis points last week, according to Informa Global Markets data. Four junk bond issuers – Bombardier (BBDb.TO), Venture Global LNG, Smyrna Ready Mix Concrete and InfraBuild Australia - announced bond offerings on Monday. The spotty access to bond markets does not bode well for poorly rated companies.
Persons: Rick Wilking, , Edward Marrinan, Peter Knapp, Winnie Cisar, bode, Morgan Stanley, Moody's, Manuel Hayes, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Paritosh Bansal, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, Nikko Securities Americas, Investors, JPMorgan, Informa, CCC, Bombardier, Venture Global LNG, , London, Insight Investment, Barclays, Thomson Locations: Westminster , Colorado, Smyrna, Australia
There is also some concern about job losses and loss of market access by smaller banks. Changing an organization's behavior is difficult and takes sustained effort, said DirectBooks CEO Rich Kerschner. Interest in automation grew as desks struggled with corporate bond volumes that touched a record $1.78 trillion in 2020. Three years into it, only a small proportion of orders and allocation messages for a new bond were going through DirectBooks. Once in place, hundreds of investors using OMS platforms could send their order messages and receive allocation messages through DirectBooks, said Kerschner.
Persons: Carlo Allegri, Rich Kerschner, Spencer Lee, salespeople, Daniel Botoff, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, DirectBooks, Chris Sztam, BlackRock's Aladdin, RBC's Botoff, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Anna Driver Organizations: New York Stock, REUTERS, Bloomberg, underwriters, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of America, Barclays, BNP, Citi, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, P Global Market Intelligence, Development, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, Wells, DirectBooks, Charles
By doing so, if they get capital relief, they would reduce the capital they need to keep against them for regulatory capital purposes, according to banking industry sources. “There has certainly been growing interest in these transactions as banks seek regulatory capital relief," said Missy Dolski, global head of capital markets at alternative investment firm Varde Partners, an active investor in such products. "This guidance makes it more clear what structures would need affirmative approval for capital relief and what is required to comply," she added. Directly issued credit-linked notes could also qualify but would need to be approved by the Fed, said the Q&A. These clarifications come after growing calls for clarity on which of these bespoke trades issued by U.S. banks would qualify for capital relief, the banking industry sources said.
Persons: Missy Dolski, Michael Bright, , Shankar Ramakrishnan, Megan Davies, Daniel Wallis Organizations: Federal Reserve, Varde Partners, Fed, SPV, Structured Finance Association, European Central Bank, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Major U.S
US junk debt deals carry higher guardrails for investors
  + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( Matt Tracy | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Twelve high-yield issuers have raised $9.6 billion this week, making it the busiest week since November 2021, according to JPMorgan. This stands in stark contrast to the same period in 2022, when only 25% of a total $81 billion was secured debt, according to Informa Global Markets data. According to rating agency Fitch, junk debt defaults are expected to reach 4.5% of all outstanding U.S. junk debt by the end of 2023, up from 2.8% in July. The extra level of protection and high investment returns are ensuring strong demand for new junk debt. The loans are part of a $9.4 billion debt package - the largest since last year's buyout of Twitter by billionaire Elon Musk.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Fitch, Anthony Canale, it's, Brian Gelfand, TCW, Goldman Sachs, Elon Musk, Jefferies, Simon, Matt Tracy, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Hugh Lawson Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, JPMorgan, Informa, Reuters, Covenant, ICE, Morningstar, GTCR, KKR, Jefferies, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S
The company logo for Financial broker Charles Schwab is displayed at a location in the financial district in New York, U.S., March 20, 2023. The announcement led to a 5% fall in Schwab shares on Tuesday but did not hurt investor appetite for its new bonds. "The strong response shows bond investors, at least in the near term, have gotten over their worries about the credit fundamentals of top-tier regional banks after the banking crisis in March," said Richard Wolff, head of U.S. syndicate at Societe Generale (SOGN.PA). Schwab's bond trade also drew attention as new investment grade bond supply this month has so far been lower than expected. Counting Schwab's $2.35 billion in bonds, investment-grade bond volume sits at just $3.45 billion for the week and $67.1 billion so far in August, according to Informa Global Markets data.
Persons: Charles Schwab, Brendan McDermid, Schwab, Richard Wolff, Dan Krieter, Brian Mulberry, David Del Vecchio, Natalie Trevithick, Matt Tracy, Nupur Anand, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Sonali Paul Organizations: REUTERS, Societe Generale, BMO Capital, Zacks Investment Management, Federal Home Loan Bank, Payden, Informa, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, Los Angeles
Edward Marrinan, macro credit strategy desk analyst at SMBC Nikko Securities America, added: "Credit risk at this point is mispriced." The move prompted a sell-off in equities and slight widening in corporate credit spreads. The average investment-grade bond spreads as of on Thursday were just a few basis points wider than the tightest levels touched this year in July and 16 basis points tighter from January. Junk-bond spreads are 98 basis points inside January levels. "With market consensus now expecting a soft landing, the credit markets are arguably underpricing default risk," BMO’s Krieter said.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Cindy Beaulieu, Edward Marrinan, Moody's, Daniel Krieter, Krieter, Marrinan, Manuel Hayes, Hayes, BMO’s Krieter, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Davide Barbuscia, Paritosh Bansal, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: NYSE, American Stock Exchange, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, SMBC Nikko Securities America, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Investors, Reuters, BMO Capital Markets, London, Insight Investment, Informa, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S
So-called preferred securities, which are one of the riskiest forms of debt but also have some characteristics of stocks, are popular among banks as a way to boost their capital for regulatory purposes. More than $160 billion of preferreds were issued in 2020 and 2021 each, when rates were low. Volume dropped last year to $70 billion as the U.S. Federal Reserve embarked on an interest rate hiking cycle. When Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N) issued a new public preferred security earlier this month, investor demand far outweighed supply. The $1.725 billion deal received orders of over $6 billion, bringing total issuance for the year to $37 billion.
Persons: preferreds, Wells, , Daniel Botoff, Allie Quine, Cohen, Steers, Quine, WELLS, Wells Fargo, RBC's Botoff, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Paritosh Bansal, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Credit Suisse, UBS Group, Wells Fargo & Co, Treasury, RBC Capital Markets, Informa Global, Thomson Locations: U.S, preferreds, New York
Investment-grade rated companies issued $152 billion in May, making it the busiest May since 2020 when the pandemic crisis prompted record debt issuance volumes, according to data from Informa Global Markets. "I believe we have seen an acceleration of issuance into May," said Richard Wolff, head of US bond syndicate at SG CIB, saying this was a result of debt issuance being pulled forward. This debt issuance spree is on the back of strong demand for what were relatively higher yielding corporate bonds after Treasury yields rose in May from levels touched in late April. New investment-grade bonds in May received orders that were three to four times the offering size on average, according to IGM data. CHANGING TIDEThe debt binge, however, gave a broad hint that the largest companies in the world are not optimistic on borrowing conditions later in the year.
Persons: Richard Wolff, Wolff, Manuel Hayes, Jessica Lehmann, Blair Shwedo, Jiyann Daemi, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Matt Tracy, Laura Matthews, Megan Davies, Matthew Lewis Organizations: YORK, U.S, Investment, Informa Global, Junk, SG CIB, London, Insight Investment, Treasury, HSBC, U.S . Bank, IG, TD Securities, Thomson Locations: New York
Investment-grade rated companies issued $152 billion in May, making it the busiest May since 2020 when the pandemic crisis prompted record debt issuance volumes, according to data from Informa Global Markets. "I believe we have seen an acceleration of issuance into May," said Richard Wolff, head of US bond syndicate at SG CIB, saying this was a result of debt issuance being pulled forward. This debt issuance spree is on the back of strong demand for what were relatively higher yielding corporate bonds after Treasury yields rose in May from levels touched in late April. New investment-grade bonds in May received orders that were three to four times the offering size on average, according to IGM data. CHANGING TIDEThe debt binge, however, gave a broad hint that the largest companies in the world are not optimistic on borrowing conditions later in the year.
Persons: Richard Wolff, Wolff, Manuel Hayes, Jessica Lehmann, Blair Shwedo, Jiyann Daemi, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Matt Tracy, Laura Matthews, Megan Davies, Matthew Lewis Organizations: YORK, U.S, Investment, Informa Global, Junk, SG CIB, London, Insight Investment, Treasury, HSBC, U.S . Bank, IG, TD Securities, Thomson Locations: New York
March 13 (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Home Loan Banks beefed up their lending warchests on Monday to provide more liquidity to banks amid continued higher-than-usual demand for funds as the fallout from the collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank reverberates through medium- and smaller-size financial institutions. The FHL Bank system raised $88.73 billion by selling short-term notes with maturities from three months to one year on Monday afternoon, according to Informa Global Markets, a provider of syndicated bond data. "As members react to a volatile market and seek stable funding, the Federal Home Loan Banks collectively continue to see heightened demand for our advances. Credit extended to commercial banks by the FHL banks more than doubled last year to more than $800 billion by year end. "The Federal Home Loan Bank System is strong, stable and stands ready to serve our members," Donovan added.
Companies have been rushing to issue bonds as yields spiked to touch new highs with the Federal Reserve looking to keep interest rates higher for longer. The average yield on U.S. investment grade bonds rose to 5.55% on Monday from just 4.94% on Feb. 1. "There's much more yield now to be had in corporates," said David del Vecchio, co-head of the U.S. investment grade corporate bond team at PGIM Fixed Income. Investors still had plenty of cash, despite the flurry of issuance, said Blair Shwedo, head of IG corporate bond trading at U.S. Bank. "With more volatility, you may see some short term negative returns but overall, we’re well positioned to have a very nice positive total return in investment grade credit in 2023," said Natalie Trevithick, head of investment grade credit strategy at investment management firm Payden & Rygel.
"Credit spreads have rallied across the board since the beginning of the year despite heavy (new bond) issuance and are at multi-month tights. This puts the credit market at odds with economic forecasts and the rates market," Barclays strategists said in a recent note. They said U.S. investment grade bonds rated BBB implied a 30% chance of recession, and CCC rated bonds implied a 35% chance. In the most bullish scenario, investment-grade bond spreads could tighten another 20 to 30 basis points, but they could widen much more if the economic downturn is deeper than anticipated, he added. Reporting by Davide Barbuscia and Matt Tracy; Editing by Shankar Ramakrishnan and Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Spreads indicate the premium investors demand to hold corporate bonds rather than safer government debt. However, some investors expect credit spreads may widen again to reflect a recession potentially ahead. Hedge funds and some asset managers short credit, meaning they are betting on a fall in a bond's price, by buying products like credit default swaps (CDS), which rise in value if the risk of a credit default event increases. Primary markets indicate there is no lack of demand for corporate bonds. They expect credit spreads to widen in the first half of this year.
Banks led by Citigroup Inc (C.N) and Bank of America Corp (BAC.N) aim to begin marketing a portion of the Tenneco debt package's secured portion as early as next week, said one of the sources. The package consists of a $2.4 billion leveraged loan, a $2 billion secured bond, and a $1 billion unsecured bond. This activity is rekindling hope among banks that they may not have to suffer big loses to shed junk-rated debt from their balance sheet. If the Tenneco syndication goes well, banks are sitting on plenty of junk-rated debt they may seek to offload. This includes $11 billion in debt backing the takeover of media analytics company Nielsen and $13 billion of debt for Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter.
WASHINGTON, Oct 27 (Reuters) - A sell-off in the U.S junk bond market is presenting investors with a buying opportunity but some are holding back, worried that a looming recession could spark widespread credit defaults. That level is the highest for yields since April 2020, while the index is down some 13% this year. That level is a critical zone of credit stress where credit markets become vulnerable to dysfunction, said Oleg Melentyev, credit strategist at the bank. DEARTH OF OFFERINGSAt the same time, risk aversion has slowed new bond issuance in the primary high-yield market to a trickle. That could change in 2023, however, if a recession further dampens activity in primary markets and borrowing costs remain high, spurring potential defaults in the lowest rungs of junk-rated bonds.
While loans can be cheaper than issuing bonds, shorter-term debt is currently more expensive than longer tenors. Typically companies take a bridge loan to fund mergers but then pay it down with a long-dated bond issue before closing. The tech giant also doubled the size of its commercial paper program to $6 billion and said that it could expand the size of the term loan to $6 billion. "If a term loan is necessary due to timing of the deal closing, we expect to pay it back quickly," the company said. In the market for junk bonds, for example, some companies are paying higher rates to raise funds.
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