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Historically, a rate cut has been a signal for central banks in emerging markets, like India, to follow by easing monetary policy in their regions. The latest data shows that the inflation rate appears to be heading in the wrong direction in India. The headline inflation rate rose in August to 3.65% compared to 3.6% in the previous month. Instead, markets have simply hit snooze on a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India for the moment. If there's no global recession, a risk-on sentiment will likely help push up emerging market equities in the medium term after the U.S. central bank cuts rates.
Persons: Shah, Mahesh Nandurkar, Surendra Goyal, CNBC's, BofA, Banks Organizations: Federal, Reserve Bank of India, Reserve Bank, Capital Economics, India, greenback, Federal Reserve, Jefferies, Bank of America, Citi, India Research, Bank Locations: India, U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJefferies: The 'long-term story' looks much better for Indian public sector banks than private onesMahesh Nandurkar, managing director and head of India research at Jefferies, says private banks in India are better from a near-term perspective.
Persons: Email Jefferies, Mahesh Nandurkar Organizations: Jefferies Locations: India
The big storyEmerging markets have been on tenterhooks for the better part of this year as the Federal Reserve has been dangling the prospect of an interest rate cut. Historically, as U.S. interest rates fall, the allure of the mighty dollar fades to the benefit of other currencies. Indeed, unlike most developed economies, India's interest rate regime in 2024 isn't any different from that of 2018. There lies the disconnect between the economy, the stock market, and a single stock. Non-bank lender Akme Fintrade India and engineering firm DEE Development Engineers will debut on the stock market on Wednesday.
Persons: Sumant Sinha, we've, Sinha, It's, Fitch, Rahul Jain, Goldman Sachs, Jake Sullivan, Modi, Narendra Modi, CNBC's Charmaine Jacob, Raamdeo Agrawal, CNBC's Tanvir Gill, Jain Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, Federal Reserve, India Inc, Nasdaq, Reserve Bank of, U.S, Societe Generale, Goldman, Clean Energy, CNBC, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, of India, Bangladesh, Australia, DEE Development Engineers Locations: Tuticorin, India, Reserve Bank of India, Japan, Britain, Delhi
This report is from this week's CNBC's "Inside India" newsletter which brings you timely, insightful news and market commentary on the emerging powerhouse and the big businesses behind its meteoric rise. "This particular product, and broadly speaking, the domestic investor, has driven the upsurge in the Indian stock markets," Mahesh Nandurkar, head of India research at Jefferies, told CNBC. For instance, of the nearly 4,900 actively traded India-listed stocks, 300 stocks had a fall in revenue in the last two consecutive financial years. Foreign investors have historically had a significant influence on local equity markets. For now, the savings directed into equity markets are still a tiny proportion of the overall savings Indians put away annually.
Persons: it's, Mahesh Nandurkar, Hermes, Jonathan Pines, Deepak Jasani, Jefferies, Nandurkar Organizations: Association for Mutual Funds, SBI Equity, Opportunities, ICICI Prudential, Advantage Fund, Jefferies, CNBC, Federated Hermes, HDFC Securities Locations: India, Japan
The VanEck Digital India ETF is the only India-focused stock exchange-traded fund listed on Western exchanges to have posted gains this year. The emerging market fund tracks the MVIS Digital India Index. "We suspect this will remain the dominant theme setting the direction for Indian markets in the near term." However, the short-term turmoil in Indian markets hasn't upset long-term bulls on the Indian economy, according to Dutch bank ING. CNBC Pro did not include the Canada-listed iShares India Index ETF and BMO MSCI India ESG Leaders Index ETF and U.S.-listed VanEck India Growth Leaders ETF owing to a lack of price targets from FactSet.
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