Grain prices have been in freefall of late as investors bet on a resurgence of supply from the U.S., Russia and Ukraine — but veteran strategist David Roche disagrees.
Contrary to market consensus, Roche, president and global strategist at Independent Strategy, expects a 13-15% annual increase in wheat prices over the next two years.
His comments come as wheat prices remain down around 29% year-to-date and at their lowest levels since September 2020, with short positions — bets that prices will fall — recently hitting a three-month high, according to a report from Independent Strategy.
Corn prices are also trading around three-year lows while soybeans recently notched a four-year low.
Meanwhile Russia, the world's largest grain exporter, has also produced large harvests which analysts expect to get through export blockades.
Persons:
David Roche, Roche, CNBC's, we've
Organizations:
Independent, El Nino, U.S . Department of Agriculture
Locations:
Kramatorsk, Donetsk region, Ukraine, U.S, Russia, Mississippi