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Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty ImagesGovernment bond markets in France saw some selling early on Monday, but were fairly muted overall despite political gridlock after a second round of legislative elections. Jitters have spread through France's bond market in recent weeks. The 10-year yield topped 3.3% — a roughly 8-month high — after French President Emmanuel Macron called the snap parliamentary election in the middle of June. Meanwhile, the gap (or spread) between French bond yields and German bond yields had topped 85 basis points in recent weeks, hitting its highest level since 2012. He added that the chances of a confrontation with Brussels remained with the left-wing alliance, but not to the same extent as if the National Rally had won.
Persons: Emmanuel Macron, Emmanuel Macron's, , David Roche, Digard, Kepler Cheuvreux Organizations: New, Republique, Anadolu, Getty, Government, European Commission, Sunday, Popular Front, Independent, National Rally, CNBC Locations: Paris, France, France's, London, Brussels
What a hung parliament in France could mean for markets
  + stars: | 2024-07-07 | by ( Matt Clinch | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Emmanuel Dunand | Afp | Getty ImagesInitial indications on Sunday evening for the French parliamentary run-off vote threw up some big surprises, leaving political commentators contemplating a "hung parliament" scenario that could prove challenging for both policymaking and financial markets. With none of the groups expected to hit the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority, gridlock could ensue over the coming weeks. The euro slipped about 0.3% against the U.S. dollar in thin trading on Sunday evening after the exit polls were released. "Regardless, uncertainty about the outlook for French policymaking is likely to be long-lasting," the analysts said. France is facing a challenging fiscal position, and the European Commission announced two weeks ago that it intended to place France under an Excessive Deficit Procedure due to its failure to keep its budget deficit within 3 percent of gross domestic product.
Persons: Emmanuel Dunand, France's, Emmanuel Macron's, policymaking, Jack Allen, Reynolds, Macron, David Roche Organizations: la Republique, Afp, Getty, Popular Front, Rassemblement National, U.S, Citi, Daiwa, European Commission, Capital Economics, Independent, National Rally Locations: France, la, Paris, Italy, Germany
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailVeteran investor David Roche 'optimistic' U.S. rate cuts are comingDavid Roche, president and global strategist at Independent Strategy, weighs in on the outlook for U.S. interest rates, saying he is "optimistic" that cuts are coming.
Persons: David Roche Organizations: Independent
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi gestures as he arrives at Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) headquarters in New Delhi, India, June 4, 2024. he said, adding Modi will likely have an "uneasy relationship" with its coalition partners. Veteran investor David Roche called the election outcome an exercise of "karma," adding that this was Modi's election to lose. The party suffered some of its high-profile losses here, with political BJP heavyweights like Smriti Irani among others, losing their seats. A 'humbling moment'Going into the election, Modi's popularity endured despite India's economic problems such as high youth unemployment, inflation and income inequality.
Persons: Narendra Modi, Adnan Abidi, Modi, Neelanjan Sircar, We've, Sircar, CNBC's, , David Roche, Roche, Smriti Irani, overreach, he's, Michael Kugelman, Wilson Organizations: Indian, Bharatiya Janata Party, BJP, Centre for Policy Research, Indian National Congress, Developmental Inclusive Alliance, Independent, South Asia Institute Locations: New Delhi, India, INDIA, Uttar Pradesh, Ayodhya, Faizabad, Maharashtra, Rajasthan
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBank of Japan has 'put a floor under the yen,' but it is not on 'firm footing,' David Roche saysDavid Roche, president and global strategist at Independent Strategy, discusses the Bank of Japan's monetary policy and the Japanese yen.
Persons: David Roche Organizations: Email Bank of Japan, Independent, Bank
Japan is not seeking a strong yen but rather aiming for a relatively stable currency, according to veteran investor David Roche. The Japanese yen has been on a roller coaster ride, with the currency breaking past 160 against the greenback last week — steepest decline in more than three decades. "The Japanese are not aiming at a particularly strong yen. Japan could not "possibly speak to have policy that really results in a strong yen unless they tighten monetary policy," Roche said, adding that it would involve raising interest rates by at least 50 basis points and allowing "unsterilized intervention" of the yen. As far as I can see from the statistics, they've [Bank of Japan] done nothing like that," Roche noted.
Persons: David Roche, Roche, CNBC's Organizations: greenback, Independent, Bank of Japan, Bank of Locations: Japan, Bank of Japan
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDavid Roche: The Japanese aren't aiming for a particularly strong yenDavid Roche, president and global strategist at Independent Strategy, says they're aiming for a "relatively stable" yen.
Persons: David Roche Organizations: Independent
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDavid Roche: Israeli escalation against Iran is 'baked in the cake'David Roche, president and global strategist at Independent Strategy, discusses Iran's drone and missile attack on Israel and says "you have all degrees of escalation that are possible, but escalation you will get — there's no doubt about that."
Persons: David Roche Organizations: Independent Locations: Iran, Israel
But Israel will need to strike a delicate balance, he noted, highlighting that "they don't want an overt conflict with Iran." Iran has said the attack on Israel was in response to an Israeli strike on its embassy compound in Damascus, Syria earlier this month. The Islamic regime has accused Israel of the April 1 attack which killed seven Iranian military personnel, including senior commanders. Israel and Iran have been at odds for decades, with Iran funding and supporting groups opposing Israel including Palestinian militant group Hamas. The ongoing conflict in Gaza has often been referred to as a proxy war between Israel and Iran.
Persons: Amir Cohen, Israel, Joe Biden, Ryan Bohl, Bohl, CNBC's, Biden, Benjamin Netanyahu, Benny Gantz, Amir Saeid Iravani, Bashar al, Assad, David Roche, Roche, Israel's, What's Organizations: Reuters, Middle East, Rane, NBC News, United Nations, Palestinian, Hamas, Yemeni, Independent, CNBC Locations: Gaza, Ashkelon, Israel, Reuters Israel, Iran, North Africa, Damascus, Syria, Tehran, United States
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe bottom of interest rate in the new cycle will be much higher: David Roche and Euan MunroEuan Munro of Newton Investment and David Roche of Independent Strategy discuss the possibility of the Federal Reserve reducing interest rates against the backdrop of high government spending and budget deficits in the United States.
Persons: David Roche, Euan Munro Euan Munro Organizations: Newton Investment, Independent, Federal Reserve Locations: United States
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailVeteran investor Roche says a rebalancing from the U.S. to Europe is underway and has further to goVeteran investor David Roche, president and global strategist at Independent Strategy, says Europe is well positioned to capitalize on a cooling off of sky-high U.S. stock valuations.
Persons: Roche, David Roche Organizations: Independent Locations: U.S, Europe
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDavid Roche: Market's expectation that AI will revolutionize productivity will 'run out of fizz'David Roche, president and global strategist at Independent Strategy, says the market expects artificial intelligence to "revolutionize productivity" in the U.S. economy, but that narrative will eventually "run out of fizz."
Persons: David Roche Organizations: Independent Locations: U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTaiwan's election shows 'absolutely no support' for reunification with China, says David RocheDavid Roche, global strategist at Independent Strategy, discusses Taiwan's election results and relations with China.
Persons: David Roche David Roche Organizations: Independent Locations: China
Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen speaks as Lai Ching-te, Taiwan's vice president and the ruling Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) presidential candidate looks on during a campaign rally ahead of the elections in Taipei, Taiwan, January 11, 2024. Carlos Garcia Rawlins | ReutersTaiwan's election results place the island on a "collision course with China" and the market reaction has been too sanguine, according to veteran investor David Roche. Beijing has already dismissed the outcome of Saturday's elections, which saw the ruling Democratic Progressive Party's Lai Ching-te elected president alongside a split parliamentary vote. The DPP rejects the so-called "One China principle" and advocates a separate and distinct Taiwanese national identity. Xi has repeatedly stated that Taiwan will be reunified with China, and has not ruled out using military force to achieve his goals.
Persons: Tsai Ing, Lai Ching, Democratic Progressive Party's, Carlos Garcia Rawlins, David Roche, Party's Lai Ching, Roche, CNBC's, Lai, Xi Jinping, Xi Organizations: Democratic Progressive, Reuters, Democratic, DPP, Independent, CSI, Chinese Communist Party, Citi, KMT Locations: Taipei, Taiwan, China, Beijing
Chris Wattie | ReutersThe Federal Reserve needs to cut interest rates at least five times next year to avoid tipping the U.S. economy into a recession, according to portfolio manager Paul Gambles. "I think Fed policy is now so disconnected from economic factors and from reality that you can't make any assumptions about when the Fed is going to wake up and and start smelling the amount of damage that they're actually causing to the economy," Gambles warned. The current U.S. policy rate stands at 5.25%-5.50%, the highest in 22 years. Traders are now pricing in a 25-basis-point cut as early as March 2024, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The perception now being that the U.S. central bank is effectively done raising interest rates.
Persons: Chris Wattie, Paul Gambles, CNBC's, Gambles, Jerome Powell, Powell, Wall, David Roche, Roche Organizations: Reuters, Federal Reserve, MBMG, Traders, Federal, Financial, Labor Locations: U.S
David Roche says U.S. inflation won't reach 2%
  + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDavid Roche says U.S. inflation won't reach 2%David Roche of Independent Strategy says it's clear that the U.S. Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates, "which means the next move is down."
Persons: David Roche Organizations: U.S . Federal
The U.S. can avoid a recession, David Roche says
  + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe U.S. can avoid a recession, David Roche saysDavid Roche, president and global strategist at Independent Strategy, says "American households have done nothing but get richer."
Persons: David Roche Organizations: Independent
Grain prices have been in freefall of late as investors bet on a resurgence of supply from the U.S., Russia and Ukraine — but veteran strategist David Roche disagrees. Contrary to market consensus, Roche, president and global strategist at Independent Strategy, expects a 13-15% annual increase in wheat prices over the next two years. His comments come as wheat prices remain down around 29% year-to-date and at their lowest levels since September 2020, with short positions — bets that prices will fall — recently hitting a three-month high, according to a report from Independent Strategy. Corn prices are also trading around three-year lows while soybeans recently notched a four-year low. Meanwhile Russia, the world's largest grain exporter, has also produced large harvests which analysts expect to get through export blockades.
Persons: David Roche, Roche, CNBC's, we've Organizations: Independent, El Nino, U.S . Department of Agriculture Locations: Kramatorsk, Donetsk region, Ukraine, U.S, Russia, Mississippi
David Roche on Japan's yield curve control policy
  + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDavid Roche: Japan conducts policy like a 'tea ceremony', exit from yield curve control 'overdue'David Roche of Independent Strategy shares his view on Japan's monetary policy and outlook on Yen.
Persons: David Roche Organizations: Independent Strategy Locations: Japan
The veteran investor highlighted key economic threats to global equities including high interest rates and China's slowdown. The Independent Strategy president highlighted key risks to global output, including a slowdown in China, Russia's sanction-hit economy, and high inflation across the West. They are related," Roche said during a recent interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe." On China, Roche stressed risks related to the country's floundering property sector. "Much longer higher interest rates means that they actually have to squeeze profit margins in order to get inflation figures to come down," he said.
Persons: Stocks, David Roche, Roche Organizations: Service, Global, Independent, ., Equity, Federal Reserve, Federal, Fed, America Locations: Wall, Silicon, China, Beijing
Despite ongoing economic crises around the world, global stock markets have remained resilient so far this year. David Roche, president and global strategist at Independent Strategy , said equity markets were still relatively buoyant "because people are stupid" and overly complacent. They are related," Roche told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Thursday. The strategist suggested owning 30-year U.S. Treasurys , which were trading with a yield of 4.35% Friday. Earlier this month, billionaire investor Bill Ackman said he was betting against 30-year U.S. Treasurys in "a world with persistent 3% inflation."
Persons: David Roche, Roche, CNBC's, Vladimir Putin's, " Roche, I'm, Bill Ackman Organizations: Independent, Equity, JPMorgan, America, Pershing, Capital Management Locations: China, Russia, Beijing, Wall Street, China's, Moscow, Russian, West
China's economy is facing headwinds ranging from an unstable property market to weak consumer demand. Experts told Insider that a worsening scenario in China bodes poorly for global markets and other economies like the US. "As its economy continues facing downward pressures, its growth momentum might slow down further, in turn exacerbating the already significant pressures that the global economy is facing." One way this is already being felt is in the softening of Chinese demand, which has led to a sharp drop in trade. And as the housing crisis deepens, it will become harder to China to right the ship, creating a lasting drag on future global growth.
Persons: Janet Yellen, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Evergrande, Alfredo Montufar, Helu, Keith Hartley, Hartley, Noah Sheidlower, Dexter Roberts, David Roche, they're, Roche Organizations: Service, Privacy, China, Country Garden Holdings, China Center, Conference Board, Federal Reserve, Atlantic Council, Housing, Independent, CNBC Locations: China, Wall, Silicon, U.S
Traders work the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on July 25, 2023, in New York City. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index retreated 0.9%, weighed down by industrials and technology stocks. Chinese countermeasuresSeparately, China's Ministry of Commerce said it might respond to the Biden administration's executive order restricting U.S. investment in sensitive Chinese technology. [PRO] Surprise social stock pickEvercore ISI's Mark Mahaney is famous for his analysis of technology stocks.
Persons: David Roche, it's, Roche, Shu Jueting, Bitcoin, Sylvia Jablonski, Mark Mahaney Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, Treasury, China's Ministry of Commerce, Biden Locations: New York City, Norway's, Defiance
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIndependent Strategy: It's going to be very hard to get U.S. inflation rates down to 2%David Roche, president and global strategist at Independent Strategy, discusses the latest Fed minutes, and why more rate hikes are inevitable.
Persons: David Roche Organizations: Independent
China's economic model is "washed up on the beach" and "not going to take off again," which will have a big impact on global markets, says veteran investor David Roche. Despite a remarkable rally in stock markets so far this year, concerns have been growing over the potential ripple effect of a prolonged slowdown in China. China has experienced meteoric growth that outpaced developed countries over the past two decades, overtaking Japan as the world's second-largest economy. However, many economists now see a longer structural downward trend amid diminishing contributions from property and manufacturing — the traditional pillars of China's rapid economic expansion. "The Chinese model is clearly washed up on the beach with a huge number of legacy holes in it, and it's not going to take off again," Roche said.
Persons: David Roche, Roche, CNBC's, it's, " Roche Organizations: People's Bank of, Communist Party, World Bank, Independent, Embassy Locations: Beijing, China, People's Bank of China, Japan, London
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