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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAll the things pushing inflation up are fading away, says Pantheon's ShepherdsonIan Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics chief economist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss his thoughts on the economy, government funding that could impact inflation, and much more.
Persons: Pantheon's, Ian Shepherdson Organizations: Macroeconomics
"Incredibly, the Fed raised rates 500 basis points under a false presumption — by over one million — of just how robust the jobs market was," Rosenberg said. AdvertisementIn addition to the yearly revisions, monthly payroll revisions from the Bureau of Labor Statistics have also been poor more recently. Related storiesOne is a model that aims to enhance the yield curve as a recession indicator by taking into account US businesses' ability to repay debts and the Fed's National Financial Conditions Index. A soft-landing outcome, where the Fed avoids sending the economy into recession, is also still the consensus view on Wall Street. With inflation down under 3% and rate cuts almost surely on the way, such a scenario is still seemingly possible.
Persons: , David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Pascal Michaillat, Emmanuel Saez, Vane, Chuck Prince, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson, payrolls, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Research, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fed, Treasury, Pantheon, Labor Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming
Americans are finding it harder to get a new job
  + stars: | 2024-06-27 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +3 min
CNN —Americans are staying unemployed for longer, the latest Labor Department data shows, in a reflection of a slowing economy. The number of Americans receiving jobless benefits for multiple weeks climbed to its highest level since November 2021, according to a Department of Labor report released Thursday. While the number of initial claims remains near pre-pandemic levels (but well below historical averages), they’ve moved higher in recent weeks. Weekly jobless claims data, which is looked at as a proxy for layoff activity, can be highly volatile and is frequently revised. Still, the trend as of late has been an upward one, economist Ian Shepherdson wrote in a note to clients Thursday.
Persons: they’ve, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson, , Organizations: CNN, Labor Department, Department, Labor, Pantheon, Federal, Consumer
Read previewAmerica's stimulus-fueled shopping spree looks just about over — and lower spending could be a signal that a consumer-led downturn is on the horizon, economic experts say. Retail spending ticked 0.1% higher in May, but sales volume has dropped 1.3% year-over-year over the last three months, US Census data shows. That adds to a 4% decline in retail sales in the first quarter — and it's a strong sign the long-awaited consumer recession is on the horizon, economist David Rosenberg said recently. "Early signs of a consumer recession finally coming to the fore." AdvertisementThe US has 52% chance of slipping into recession by May of next year, according to projections from the New York Fed.
Persons: , David Rosenberg, Stephanie Pomboy, Ian Shepherdson Organizations: Service, Business, McKinsey, Deutsche Bank, Consumer, Federal Reserve, New York Fed, Pantheon Macroeconomics
Weekly jobless claims rise to highest level since August
  + stars: | 2024-05-09 | by ( Lucy Bayly | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +2 min
New York CNN —First-time applications for unemployment benefits rose last week to 231,000, the highest level since August, in another sign that the white-hot labor market is starting to cool off. Thursday’s data also showed that the number of continuing claims, or applications from people who have filed for unemployment for at least one week, was 1.78 million. That’s an increase of 17,000 from the prior week, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Although the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9% last month, it’s the 27th consecutive month that the jobless rate has held under 4%, matching a streak last seen in the late 1960s. The Federal Reserve has been battling inflation by raising its key lending rate in the hopes of slowing the economy.
Persons: , Chris Rupkey, Jerome Powell, ” Ian Shepherdson, It’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, , Federal Reserve, Pantheon Economics Locations: New York, Fwdbonds
Read previewLooking at the headline numbers, the US labor market is booming. OVOM Research/Bullandbearprofits.comWolfenbarger's views in contextOther market observers have started to warn of a weakening labor market in recent months. Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, shared several indicators in a client note earlier this month warning of a job market slowdown ahead. Pantheon MacroeconomicsBut whether the labor market actually weakens materially remains to be seen. AdvertisementIf Wolfenbarger is right and the labor market falls apart in short order, it could catch an exceptionally bullish market off guard.
Persons: , Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, Wolfenbarger, Louis, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson, There's Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Business, Labor Statistics, Fed, Conference, Treasury, OVOM, Pantheon, National Federation of Independent
According to Bank of America, valuation levels explain 80% of the market's return over a 10-year period. Bank of AmericaThere are many ways to measure valuation levels in the overall market. Hussman says it's the most accurate indicator of future market returns that he's found. AdvertisementThe Conference BoardThird, the number of US states with a rising unemployment rate is spiking, meaning that the overall unemployment rate should see further upside. BullAndBearProfits.comThe US unemployment rate is already on a slight uptrend, having climbed from 3.4% in April 2023 to 3.9% as of February.
Persons: , Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, John Hussman's, he's, Warren Buffett, Wolfenbarger, Stocks, Woflenbarger, Cam Harvey, Claudia Sahm, Louis Fed, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, David Rosenberg, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, America's Savita Subramanian, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Business, JPMorgan, National Federation of Independent Business, Board, Treasury, Bank, America's
In today's big story, we're examining how a change in credit cards' behind-the-scenes fees impacts you… and your points . Under the settlement, merchants could charge customers more for using different cards despite being part of the same Visa or Mastercard network. AdvertisementTim Boyle/Getty Images; Jenny Chang-Rodriguez/BIThe agreement could ultimately reshape how consumers pay for things. AdvertisementPerhaps that's why one analyst told Business Insider's Alex Bitter he doesn't expect major retailers to pass swipe fees along to customers. But maybe, not unlike the fees the agreement targets, what seems small could eventually add up to something big.
Persons: , Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Insider's Grace Eliza Goodwin, Tim Boyle, David Morris, Alex Bitter, LUDOVIC MARIN, BlackRock's Larry Fink, Jeremy Grantham, Ian Shepherdson, That'll, We've, Meta, Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook execs, Francis Key Scott, Hunter Biden, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Jordan Parker Erb, George Glover Organizations: Service, Nickelodeon, Business, Mastercard, Visa, Getty, Fed, Amazon, BI Locations: Europe, LUDOVIC, Baltimore, Port, New York, London
Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics' founder, predicts a significant US labor market slowdown. Shepherdson anticipates five 25-basis-point rate cuts from the Fed in 2024 instead of three. AdvertisementOne of the big surprises of the Federal Reserve's record hiking cycle over the last couple of years has been the strength of the labor market. Month after month, the US economy has steadily added jobs, and the unemployment rate has remained below 4%. But all of that looks likely to change in the months ahead, according to Ian Shepherdson, the founder and chief economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics.
Persons: Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson, Organizations: Macroeconomics, Fed, Service, Federal, Pantheon Macroeconomics, Business
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation's going to perform much better than most people & the Fed think this year: Ian ShepherdsonIan Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics chief economist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, the Fed's interest rate outlook, why he believes the the Fed should cut rates next week, and more.
Persons: Ian Shepherdson Ian Shepherdson Organizations: Macroeconomics
The housing market, they claimed, was a bubble destined to burst. I’ve spent the past few years asking experts a simple question: Has the housing market reached bubble territory? AdvertisementFor a time, it seemed like the housing market was doing a speedrun through Simonsen’s checklist. And even if the economy does take a turn, a run-of-the-mill recession probably wouldn’t be enough to topple the housing market. The housing market is far from balanced, but we’re at least heading in that direction.
Persons: doomsayers, I’ve, Redfin, you’ve, you’ll, Mike Simonsen, megalandlords, , Ian Shepherdson, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell, Powell, Rick Palacios Jr, John Burns, ” doomsayers, might’ve, It’s, it’s, Logan Mohtashami, don’t, US homebuilders, “ It’s, ” Mohtashami, Selma Hepp, Fannie Mae, Palacios, ” Palacios, Mohtashami Organizations: Altos Research, Wall, John, John Burns Research, Consulting, Mortgage Bankers Association, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Federal Housing Finance Agency Locations: Charlotte, North Carolina, Austin, Las Vegas, Miami, Boise , Idaho, Dallas, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, US
That could be a sign that workers feel less confident about the state of the labor market. AdvertisementFriday's blowout jobs report confirmed the labor market is still holding firm, but one often-ignored statistic could signal a looming slowdown. "The second straight 2.2% quits rate — just below the pre-Covid level — is more important, because it clearly signals slower wage gains." "All that air is coming out of the labor market, even though hiring remains strong." "The job market is steadily returning to its pre-pandemic self," Morningstar's Preston Caldwell said in a research note.
Persons: , José Torres, Ian Shepherdson, Philipp Carlsson, Szlezak, Optimists, Morningstar's Preston Caldwell Organizations: Service, of Labor Statistics, Macroeconomics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Boston Consulting Group, Business, eBay, Los Angeles Times
Read previewThe labor market smashed expectations in January, adding 353,000 new jobs, far above economist forecasts of 187,000. Despite the strong headline number, however, there are signs that the job market is deteriorating beneath the surface. For one, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' household survey is showing some divergence from its payroll survey. "High labor and credit costs are beginning to materially impact corporate profits, which impacts both the labor market and (eventually) the default rate." Still, while there are signs of weakening, there are also signs of improvement in the labor market.
Persons: , Jeff Schulze, today's, Shulze, Louis Fed, Lance Roberts, Ian Shepherdson, Lauren Goodwin Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, of Labor Statistics, BLS, of Labor, ClearBridge Investments, RIA Advisors, National Federation of Independent Business, Pantheon, Bank of America's Global, New York Life Investments, ClearBridge
CNBC Daily Open: U.S. economy's state of play
  + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( Sumathi Bala | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Jonathan Ernst | ReutersWhat you need to know todayThe bottom lineAll eyes will be on the state of the U.S. economy as the first official reading of fourth-quarter GDP data drops Thursday morning. "Data released [Thursday] may in retrospect turn out to document the one quarter of true 'Goldilocks' conditions," Citi economist Andrew Hollenhorst wrote. Since 2016, a slew of government data was published the day before the GDP report — namely, information on business inventories and trade, which are part of the GDP calculation.
Persons: Joe Biden, Jonathan Ernst, Andrew Hollenhorst, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson, , Jeff Cox Organizations: CNBC, Flex, Reuters, Citi, Pantheon Locations: U.S, West Columbia, South Carolina
New York CNN —The number of Americans making first-time claims for jobless benefits dropped last week to a level not seen since the fall of 2022, while CEO exits set a new high last year, according to fresh economic data released Thursday. There were an estimated 187,000 initial claims for unemployment insurance during the week that ended January 13, according to Department of Labor data released Thursday. That’s down by 16,000 claims from the week before and marked the lowest level of first-time claims — considered a proxy for layoffs — since September 24, 2022. Weekly claims data can be quite volatile and are frequently revised, and economists caution that some one-off influences — in this case, harsh weather and a new year — could be at play. “Historically, we’ve seen large economic shifts preceded by a surge in CEO exits,” Andrew Challenger, senior vice president of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, said in a statement.
Persons: , ” Andrew Challenger, Challenger, , , ” Matthew Martin, Ian Shepherdson, ” Shepherdson Organizations: New, New York CNN, of Labor, Challenger, , Oxford Economics, , ” Thursday’s Labor Department Locations: New York, US
December's inflation data provided just enough evidence to show that the pace of price increases is continuing to cool while also serving up a reminder that the war isn't won yet. One is that regardless of the headline numbers, the parts of inflation that don't fluctuate as much have been fairly stubborn. So-called sticky inflation, which includes things such as housing costs, auto insurance, medical care services and household furnishings, are indeed holding higher. On a one-month annualized basis, the measure also was at 4.6%, but that's up a full percentage point from the previous month. Fed policymakers also are attuned to the relationship between wages and inflation.
Persons: isn't, Disinflation, Jamie Dimon, cautioning, Krishna Guha, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Ian Shepherdson, Dan North Organizations: Separate Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Nomura Global Economics, JPMorgan Chase, Evercore ISI, PPI, Citigroup, Commerce, Fed, Pantheon, Atlanta, Allianz Trade Locations: Red
Minneapolis CNN —US employers in the private sector added an estimated 89,000 jobs in September, a much lower total than expected and a potential indication of a sharp pullback in the labor market, payroll processor ADP reported Wednesday. The September tally landed well below economists’ estimates for 153,000 jobs added, as well as August’s upwardly revised total of 180,000 jobs added. While ADP’s tabulations don’t always correlate with the official federal jobs report — due out Friday — it’s sometimes viewed as a proxy for overall hiring activity, which has been gradually easing. “We’ve seen other times when we’ve had a relatively weak private sector number sandwiched between two stronger months,” Richardson said during a call with reporters. The BLS is set to release the all-important monthly jobs report for September at 8:30am ET on Friday.
Persons: , Nela Richardson, tabulations, it’s, We’ve, we’ve, ” Richardson, Ian Shepherdson, ” Shepherdson Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, ADP, , of Labor Statistics, Labor Locations: Minneapolis
Student loan repayments restart in October after a three-year suspension during the COVID-19 pandemic. In isolation, none would likely shift policymakers' sense of the short-term risks or change their focus on quelling still-elevated inflation. By Goldman's estimate the economy would still be growing at a 1.3% annual rate at that point. But the amounts they see sliced from GDP are more than the 1% growth rate Fed officials expected the economy to muster as of June, and beyond many private forecasts as well. Some economists say the resumption of student loan repayments for tens of millions of borrowers may already be reshaping behavior.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Vincent Reinhart, Reinhart, Michael Pearce, Ian Shepherdson, Kieran Clancy, They've, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: . Federal Reserve, United Auto Workers, Federal, Republicans, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Mellon, Reuters, Oxford Economics, Congressional, U.S . Department, Education, Thomson
watch nowThe auto workers' strike is the latest in a series of labor-management conflicts that economists say could start having significant growth impacts if they persist. So far, the United Auto Workers stoppage has impacted just a small portion of the workforce with limited implications for the broader economy. United Auto Workers (UAW) members on a picket line outside the Stellantis NV Toledo Assembly Complex in Toldeo, Ohio, on Monday, Sept. 18, 2023. August alone saw some 4.1 million labor hours lost this year, the most for a single month since August 2000, according to the Labor Department. Year to date, there have been 7.4 million hours lost, compared to just 636 hours total for the same period in 2022.
Persons: Ian Shepherdson, Emily Elconin, Shepherdson, Doris Dear, John Nacion, Joseph Brusuelas, Brusuelas, Biden, Janet Yellen, CNBC's Sara Eisen Organizations: United Auto Workers, Labor Department statistics, Pantheon, UAW, Stellantis NV, Bloomberg, Getty, Big Three, Ford, GM, Federal Reserve, Labor, Labor Department, HBO, National Union Solidarity, Writers Guild of America, Screen Actors Guild, University of Michigan, RSM, York Fed Locations: Stellantis NV Toledo, Toldeo , Ohio, U.S, New York City, John, Los Angeles, California , Oregon, Washington, York
Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsMonth-to-month inflation numbers "will inevitably hop around," wrote Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Economist Ian Shepherdson, who sees underlying consumer inflation nevertheless slowing to a "benign" level of below 3% by early next year. Since their meeting in July, only two Fed policymakers have said they felt rates do not need to rise further, while others noted their outlook for slowing inflation was built around a slightly higher federal funds rate. Overall bank credit has been falling on a year-over-year basis since mid-July, evidence of financial firms tightening access either through higher rates or stricter standards. By and large Fed officials feel the economy can grow about 1.8% a year with inflation at the 2% target and assuming "appropriate monetary policy." The outlook has diminished prospects for a U.S. recession, but may well keep Fed concerns about high - or higher - inflation alive.
Persons: Jessica Rinaldi, Ian Shepherdson, Jerome Powell, Powell, Torsten Slok, Goldman Sachs, Steven Blitz, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Investors, Apollo Global Management, Lombard Chief U.S, Fed, Thomson Locations: Flushing , New York, U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe're probably at the peak now for mortgage rates, says Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Ian ShepherdsonIan Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomic founder and chief economist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of housing availability & affordability, why he sees no inflation threat from housing for the foreseeable future, and more.
Persons: Ian Shepherdson Ian Shepherdson
Retail sales rose in June for third straight month
  + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
Washington, DC CNN —Spending at US retailers rose in June for the third month in a row, in a subdued show of resilience from American consumers. Retail spending, which is adjusted for seasonality but not inflation, rose 0.2% in June, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. Furniture sales jumped 1.4% in June from the prior month, while spending at department stores fell by 2.4% during the same period. Excluding sales at gasoline stations and on cars and parts, retail sales rose 0.3% in June from May. From a year earlier, overall retail sales rose 1.5% in June, the second-weakest pace since May 2020.
Persons: , Ian Shepherdson, Kieran Clancy, , Lydia Boussour Organizations: DC CNN, Retail, Commerce Department, , Employers, Federal Reserve, ” Fed, Fed Locations: Washington, EY
He's still bullish on real-estate investing as a strategy to build wealth. But he's taking a buy-and-hold approach right now, and not taking out risky loans. It's hard to imagine anyone who hails the virtues of real-estate investing more than Brandon Turner. He again sang the praises of real-estate investing as a method for building generational wealth, and brushed off calls for a housing market crash that have grown louder since last year. But that's not to say Turner is particularly bullish on every investing approach right now.
Persons: Brandon Turner, He's, Turner, David Greene, that's, Skylar Olsen, Anne Curry, Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zentner, Ray Farris, Ian Shepherdson Organizations: Credit
There's a fairly simple way to characterize Societe Generale strategist Albert Edwards' latest note to clients. Bears are boys who cried wolf (recession), and investors are the shepherd who have become sick of the ongoing warnings and have stopped heeding their calls. Societe GeneraleAll of this optimism is likely a mistake, Edwards said as he doubled down on his recession call. In an May note, Edwards said "recession is a done deal," citing The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, which has been at recessionary levels for months now. The indicators takes into account variables like manufacturing activity, stock performance, consumer confidence, housing market activity, and bond market activity.
Persons: Albert Edwards, Edwards, downgrades, , I'm, Michelle Cluver, Jason Draho, Neil Dutta, Ian Shepherdson Organizations: Societe Generale, Bears, Generale All, Generale, Investors, Bureau of Labor Statistics, X, Federal Reserve, UBS, Macro
LaVorgna is in the camp that says it will be difficult if not impossible for the U.S. to avoid at least a modest period of negative growth in the second half. "The only way we won't have a deep recession is if the Fed has the courage to ease very quickly." "The second half will be difficult. And if history is any guide, the strength that has marked the first half of the year likely will carry over into the second half. In years when the index gained more than 10% in the first half, the second half usually sees double the normal second-half return, according to CFRA.
Persons: Joseph LaVorgna, Trump, LaVorgna, That's, Mark Zandi, Zandi, hasn't, CFRA, Sam Stovall, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson Organizations: Federal, Nikko Securities America, Fed, Market Committee, Atlanta, Moody's, University of Michigan, Treasury, Pantheon Locations: U.S, nonfarm payrolls, Friday's
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