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European stocks are expected to open higher Monday as global market sentiment rises. Global market sentiment has been boosted by President-Elect Donald Trump signaling his intention to nominate Key Square Group founder Scott Bessent as U.S. Treasury secretary. U.S. stock futures climbed Sunday night as Wall Street kicked off a shortened Thanksgiving trading week. Markets are closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving Day and end early on Friday. Meanwhile, Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose Monday, with investors awaiting a slew of economic data this week, including China industrial data and India's third-quarter gross domestic product numbers.
Persons: Germany's DAX, Donald Trump, Scott Bessent, Trump, Bessent Organizations: France's CAC, IG, President, Key Square, Treasury, Investors Locations: Germany, U.S, Asia, Pacific, China
Critics of the proposed tariffs say the policy could lead to higher prices for U.S. consumers. That leaves Asia and Europe having to quickly consider ways to mitigate the future impact of export tariffs, and whether to retaliate or to try to negotiate a get-out deal. But economists also say that the EU could try to use the carrot instead of the stick with the U.S., suggesting there are three other ways Europe might try to stop, limit or avoid Trump's likely tariff policy altogether. German Chancellor Angela Merkel deliberates with U.S. President Donald Trump during the G-7 summit in Canada on June 9, 2018. Jesco Denzel | Bundesregierung | Getty ImagesWhether there Europe can reach consensus on how or whether to do a deal with Trump is debateable, however.
Persons: Caitlin Ochs, Reuters Donald Trump's, Europe scrabbling, Trump, Flach, Donald Trump, Jean, Claude Juncker, Andrew Kenningham, Didier Lebrun, Photonews, Mujtaba Rahman, Ursula von der, Von der, Joe Biden, Kenningham, Angela Merkel deliberates, Denzel, Carsten Brzeski, Emmanuel Macron, Angela Merkel, There's Organizations: Reuters, Trump, ING, Germany's, International Economics, Germany, U.S, EU, Capital Economics, European Union, Getty, Eurasia Group, Sustainable Steel, US Trade, Technology Council, Bundesregierung Locations: Upper Bay, New York, U.S, Europe, EU, China, Asia, Germany, Ukraine, Canada, France
Krisztian Bocsi | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesDonald Trump's election as U.S. President could mark yet another major blow for the struggling German economy. The print came after the German economy ministry in October said it was now expecting the country's economy will contract, rather than grow this year. Trump's victory could make matters worse. Reliance on exportsThe German economy is heavily reliant on exports — and Trump is set to slap tariffs and other restrictions on imports. The German statistics office Destatis last month said that the U.S.' importance as a trading partner for Germany has been growing.
Persons: Olaf Scholz, Germany's, Krisztian Bocsi, Donald Trump's, Moritz Schularick, Trump, Schularick, ifo, Morningstar DBRS, Lisandra Flach Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, PMI, P Global, Hamburg Commercial Bank, Kiel Institute, Trump, Reliance, China, Beijing, Destatis, ifo Center, International Economics, European Union, EU Locations: Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of Germany, Europe, U.S
(Higher interest rates tend to boost the value of a currency by attracting more capital from abroad as investors seek bigger returns.) “Investors are bracing for tariffs… which will push up the price of imported goods for American shoppers,” she wrote in a note Wednesday. The pain of Trump’s tariffs will be felt far beyond US borders. “We also believe that Trump could decide to implement even higher tariffs on economies that run large trade surpluses with the US,” BMI analysts wrote in a note Wednesday. “Donald Trump’s economic course will pose major problems for Germany and the European Union,” the institute said.
Persons: Donald Trump, Matthew Ryan, Susannah Streeter, Hargreaves, , Trump’s, Trump, ” Nomura, Philip Shaw, Ellie Henderson, Streeter, Anthony Kettle, , Spencer Platt, “ Donald Trump’s Organizations: London CNN, Republican, Senate, CNN, Federal Reserve, Trump, , RBC Global Asset Management, BMI, Fitch Solutions, Port, Getty, European Union, Ifo Institute for Economic Research Locations: United States, Mexico, China, Germany, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Newark, New Jersey, Munich
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGerman budget 'not ambitious enough to breathe life into the German economy,' economist saysClemens Fuest, president of IFO, discusses the latest German business climate index and the outlook for the country's economy.
Persons: Clemens Fuest, IFO
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHigher energy prices in Germany impact competitiveness of manufacturers, economist saysTimo Wollmershäuser, head of economic forecasts at IFO, discusses the German economy and the competitiveness of companies.
Persons: Timo Wollmershäuser Locations: Germany
Patrick Pleul | Picture Alliance | Getty ImagesGermany's housebuilding sector has gone from bad to worse in recent months. "The housebuilding sector is, I would say, a little bit in a confidence crisis," Dominik von Achten, chairman of German building materials company Heidelberg Materials, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Thursday. In January both the current sentiment and expectations for the German residential construction sector fell to all-time lows, according to data from the Ifo Institute for Economic Research. The business climate reading fell to a negative 59 points, while expectations dropped to negative 68.9 points in the month. Habeck pointed to higher interest rates as a key challenge for the economy, explaining that those had led to reduced investments, especially in the construction sector.
Persons: Patrick Pleul, Dominik von Achten, CNBC's, Klaus Wohlrabe, Robert Habeck, Wohlrabe, It's, Achten Organizations: Getty, Heidelberg Materials, Ifo Institute for Economic Research, Hamburg Commercial Bank, PMI, Climate Locations: Germany, Ifo, Heidelberg
The inflation rate fell to 2.3% in November. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected inflation to ease to 2.6%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, fell to 3.8% in November from 4.3% the previous month. "But the inflation rate will fall to below 3% as early as the beginning of next year," Wollmershaeuser said. Economists pay close attention to German inflation data, as Germany publishes its figures one day before the euro zone inflation data release.
Persons: Fabian Bimmer, Timo Wollmershaeuser, Wollmershaeuser, Commerzbank's, Ralph Solveen, Solveen, Bert Colijn, Colijn, Miranda Murray, Maria Martinez, Linda Pasquini, Sharon Singleton, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Union, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Hamburg, Germany, Spanish
German export sentiment improves in November - Ifo
  + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
A cargo ship is seen on river Main in front of the skyline during a summer evening in Frankfurt, Germany, August 13, 2023. REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 27 (Reuters) - Sentiment among German exporters improved in November, although only a few sectors expected exports to increase, according to a survey by the Ifo economic institute released on Monday. The institute's export expectations indicator rose to minus 3.8 points in November from minus 6.3 points in October. "However, the export economy still isn't managing to develop any momentum," Klaus Wohlrabe, head of surveys at Ifo, said. "German companies have yet to benefit much from the economic upswing in many countries," he added.
Persons: Kai Pfaffenbach, Klaus Wohlrabe, Amir Orusov, Rachel More Organizations: REUTERS, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Ifo
Lindner plans to lift self-imposed limits on borrowing and present a supplementary budget next week after a constitutional court ruling wiped billions from the federal budget and forced the government to freeze most new spending commitments. HANDS TIED IN A BOXING MATCHThe crisis has sparked calls for reforming the debt brake. "With the debt brake as it is, we have voluntarily tied our hands behind our backs and are going into a boxing match. A poll by the broadcaster ZDF suggested only a minority of Germans, 35%, supported suspending the debt brake however, compared to 61% wanting it to stay in place. Some 57% wanted the budget shortfall from the court ruling to be covered by spending cuts, 11% favoured tax increases and 23% wanted the state to take on additional debt.
Persons: Christian Lindner, Lindner, hawkish Lindner, Chancellor Olaf Scholz's, Robert Habeck, Habeck, Thomas Gitzel, Holger Hansen, Christian Kraemer, Miranda Murray, Rene Wagner, Matthias Williams, Toby Chopra Organizations: BERLIN, German Finance, Greens, ZDF, Bank, Thomson Locations: Germany, China, Europe
Europe's largest economy shrank 0.1% in the July-to-September quarter as inflation eroded people's willingness to spend, Germany's statistics office confirmed Friday. The downbeat figures come as the country's budget crisis raises the possibility of deep spending cuts next year. A court ruled last week that previous spending violated constitutional limits on deficits, forcing Chancellor Olaf Scholz's government to put off a final vote on next year's spending plan. The court said the move violated rules in the constitution that limit new borrowing to 0.35% of annual economic output. He termed the uptick in the Ifo survey of business managers as “a bottoming out” rather than a rebound.
Persons: Chancellor Olaf Scholz's, quarrelsome, Christian Lindner, , Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski Organizations: International Monetary Fund, Finance, ING Locations: FRANKFURT, Germany, Russia, Ukraine
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'Some positive news': Ifo president on data showing improved German business sentimentClemens Fuest, president of the Ifo institute, discusses German business sentiment after data shows improved morale for the third consecutive month in November.
Persons: Clemens Fuest
Fast forward two years, and German housebuilding looks like it's collapsing, putting pressure on both his hard-to-reach goal, but also the overall economy of the country. Over 22% of companies surveyed reported the cancellation of residential construction projects in Germany in October, a new record high. Expectations for the residential construction industry fell to what the Ifo described as an "exceptional low." "Things continue to go from bad to worse in Germany's construction sector. But it's also the jobs market that could be impacted by troubles in the homebuilding sector, Brzeski noted.
Persons: Soeren, Germany's Olaf Scholz, , Cyrus de la Rubia, Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, Klaus Wohlrabe, Wohlrabe, it's Organizations: Getty, Ifo Institute for Economic Research, Hamburg Commercial Bank, German Federal, Office, ING, CNBC, European Central Bank, ECB, European Commission Locations: downtown Wittenberg, Germany, Hamburg
German Court deals blow to Scholz government with budget ruling
  + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Germany's constitutional court ruled on Wednesday that the government's re-allocation of 60 billion euros ($65 billion) of unused debt from the pandemic era to a climate fund was illegal, dealing a blow to Chancellor Olaf Scholz's coalition. This was done with the Second Supplementary Budget Act 2021, which retroactively amended the Budget Act for 2021. The constitutional court ruled that this act was incompatible with Germany's Basic Law and so was void. In addition, the government changed the accounting principal by which borrowing counted against the budget deficit in the year the borrowing was actually done. "The court ruling has far-reaching consequences for fiscal policy in Germany," said Clemens Fuest, President of the Ifo economic institute.
Persons: Chancellor Olaf Scholz's, Christian Lindner, Clemens Fuest Organizations: Social Democrats, Greens, Free Democrats Locations: Germany
[1/3] FILE PHOTO: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz looks on as he meets NATO's Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in Berlin, Germany, November 9, 2023. Wednesday's decision by the constitutional court could also set a precedent for fiscal responses to future crises. "FAR-REACHING CONSEQUENCES""The court ruling has far-reaching consequences for fiscal policy in Germany," said Clemens Fuest, President of the Ifo economic institute. This was done with the Second Supplementary Budget Act 2021, which retroactively amended the Budget Act for 2021. The constitutional court ruled that this act was incompatible with Germany's Basic Law and so was void.
Persons: Olaf Scholz, Jens Stoltenberg, Liesa, Chancellor Olaf Scholz's, Christian Lindner, Lindner, Scholz, Robert Habeck, Clemens Fuest, Ralph Solveen, Habeck, Friedrich Merz, Maria Martinez, Christian Kraemer, Ursula Knapp, Matthias Williams, Kirsti Knolle, Madeline Chambers, Susan Fenton, William Maclean, Catherine Evans Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Finance, Union, Social Democrats, Free Democrats, Christian Democratic Union, Thomson Locations: Berlin, Germany, Ukraine
BERLIN, Nov 6 (Reuters) - Germany's residential construction sector was again hit by a wave of cancellations in October, according to a survey published on Monday that showed a record number of firms reporting abandoned projects. "It's getting worse all the time, with more and more projects failing due to higher interest rates and elevated construction prices," says Klaus Wohlrabe, Ifo head of surveys. "In residential construction, new business remains very low and companies' order backlogs are diminishing." The number of companies reporting a lack of orders also increased in October, to 48.7% of firms from 46.6% in September. "Nearly half of all residential construction companies are now suffering from a lack of orders, and that number is growing every month," said Wohlrabe.
Persons: Klaus Wohlrabe, Miranda Murray, Rachel More Organizations: Thomson
Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), speaks to the media following talks at the Chancellery on November 29, 2022 in Berlin, Germany. "If you look at the policy decisions Germany is taking, they are around stimulating structural change. And of course, like any other country, structural reforms are a must in this more uncertain world with low gross growth prospects," Georgieva said Wednesday. The auto industry should be a particular focus for reform in Germany if the country wants to increase productivity, according to Georgieva. "For Germany, this is very visible in the need to restructure the automobile sector for this economy of tomorrow," she said.
Persons: Kristalina Georgieva, Carsten Koall, CNBC's Joumanna, Georgieva, Hans, Werner Sinn, Joachim Nagel Organizations: International Monetary Fund, Getty, Ifo Institute, CNBC Locations: Berlin, Germany, Europe, Italy, Ukraine
The AFD party leadership (front row) holds a banner reading OUR LAND FIRST! during a protest against the rising cost of living in a demonstration organized by the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) political party on October 8, 2022 in Berlin, Germany. The Christian Democratic Union party (CDU), formerly led by chancellor of 16 years, Angela Merkel, currently polls the highest. "First of all you need a political will to stop it and we don't see this will among the other parties. "There is a backlash clearly … The population is now moving to the right," Sinn said, referring to the popularity of the AfD.
Persons: Omer Messinger, Angela Merkel, Robert Lambrou, Lambrou, CNBC's Annette Weisbach, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Manfred Knof, Hans, Werner Sinn, Sinn Organizations: Getty, Social Democrats, Greens, Free Democrats, Christian Democratic Union, CDU, CNBC, Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs, Handelsblatt Locations: Germany, Berlin, Hesse, Frankfurt, Bavaria, Munich, Sonneberg, Thuringia, Europe
Business sentiment has recently deteriorated again and overall, the indicators suggest that production fell noticeably in the third quarter of 2023, the economic institutes said. GDP is expected to shrink by 0.4% in the third quarter, following stagnation in the second quarter. For 2024, the institutes - four German and one Austrian - forecast GDP growth of 1.3%, down from 1.5% previously. In the following years, a decreasing potential growth rate due to the shrinking labour force will become more and more apparent, the economic institutes said. The Joint Economic Forecasts are prepared by the Ifo Institute, the Halley Institute for Economic Research, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research and the Austrian Institute of Economic Research.
Persons: Kai Pfaffenbach, Oliver Holtemoeller, Maria Martinez, Friederike Heine Our Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Halle Institute for Economic Research, Ifo Institute, Halley Institute for Economic Research, Kiel Institute, Institute for Economic Research, Austrian Institute of Economic Research, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany
Growth of 0.3% had been expected in the institutes' spring forecasts. The so-called Joint Economic Forecasts are to be presented in Berlin on Thursday. The economics ministry usually updates its forecasts incorporating the results of the Joint Economic Forecasts. For 2024, the institutes - four German and one Austrian - forecast GDP growth of 1.3%, down from 1.5% previously. The Joint Economic Forecasts are prepared by the Ifo Institute, the Halle Institute for Economic Research, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research and the Austrian Institute of Economic Research.
Persons: Annegret, Christian Kraemer, Rene Wagner, Maria Martinez, Rachel Armstrong, Kirsti Knolle, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Ifo Institute, Halle Institute for Economic Research, Kiel Institute, Institute for Economic Research, Austrian Institute of Economic Research, Thomson Locations: Berlin, Germany
German export sentiment drops to three-year low - Ifo
  + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
In its fifth consecutive month of decline, the institute's export expectations indicator fell to minus 11.3 points in September, from minus 6.5 points in August. "Germany's export economy is going through a weak phase," Klaus Wohlrabe, head of surveys at Ifo, said. "It's likely that export demand won't pick up again significantly until next year," he added. Wohlrabe said higher interest rates were dampening demand for German goods. Last month's hopes for growth in the German chemical industry did not materialize in September, according to the survey.
Persons: Fabian Bimmer, Klaus Wohlrabe, Wohlrabe, Amir Orusov, Rene Wagner, Rachel More Organizations: REUTERS, Thomson Locations: Bremerhaven, Germany, Ifo
German business sentiment worsens in September - Ifo
  + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: 1 min
BERLIN, Sept 25 (Reuters) - German business morale deteriorated in September, falling for the fifth month in a row, a survey showed on Monday. The Ifo institute said its business climate index stood at 85.7 versus a forecast of 85.2, according to analysts polled by Reuters. "The German economy is treading water," Ifo president Clemens Fuest said. Companies were less satisfied than in the previous month with their current business situation. Reporting by Friederike Heine and Maria Martinez, Editing by Miranda MurrayOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Clemens Fuest, Friederike Heine, Maria Martinez, Miranda Murray Organizations: Reuters, Companies, Thomson
Morning Bid: Fed's hawkish pause keeps pressure on markets
  + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Global markets have been feeling the heat as U.S. bond yields surged and a strengthened dollar hit a six-month high following the Federal Reserve's hawkish tone last week. The euro zone central bank also struck a relatively dovish tone. But markets will have plenty of material to pore over this week as they try to glean future Fed moves. In the euro zone, ECB President Christine Lagarde kicks off a string of speeches and remarks this week. Markets are expecting that the euro zone's central bank is done hiking.
Persons: Jonathan Ernst, Brigid Riley, Neel Kashkari, Christine Lagarde, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Isabel Schnabel, Fed's Neel Kashkari, Edmund Klamann Organizations: . Federal, REUTERS, Brigid, Brigid Riley Investors, Global, Federal Reserve, U.S, Minneapolis, China, HK, ECB policymaker, Bank of France, ECB, Thomson Locations: Washington, U.S, Europe, Britain, Switzerland, Japan, China, Hollywood
CNBC Daily Open: Even high yields couldn’t stop tech
  + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Meanwhile, the European Commission revised its growth forecast for the European Union down from 1% to 0.8%. Only European economy to contractGermany is likely the only major European economy to contract this year, according to fresh forecasts by the European Commission. The commission predicts Germany's economy to shrink 0.4% this year; the International Monetary Fund puts that figure at 0.3%.
Persons: JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, it'd, Dimon, Cristiano Amon, Hans, Werner Sinn, Tesla Morgan Stanley's, Adam Jonas, Tesla, Jonas Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, Commission, European Union, JPMorgan, Qualcomm Qualcomm, Apple, UBS, European Commission, International Monetary Fund Locations: European, U.S, Ukraine, Germany, Europe
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The donations were meant 'to weed out anti crypto dems for pro crypto dems and anti crypto repubs for pro crypto repubs," Salame said in a private message, according to a court document. It's the first time a Chinese president has missed the summit, a sign of how geopolitics have shifted. But Leon Cooperman, the chair and CEO of the Omega Family Office, told CNBC he doesn't think markets will hit a new high for a long time.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, CNBC's David Faber, Instacart, Goldman, Solomon, FTX's Salame, Ryan Salame, Salame, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, Leon Cooperman Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, ifo Institute, Alameda Research, Omega Locations: Germany, Alameda, India
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