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☆ I.M.F. Sees Signs of Cooling in U.S. Economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-16 | by ( Alan Rappeport | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The United States economy is growing more slowly than expected and inflation remains stubbornly high around the world, two developments that pose risks to the global economy, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday. The new report said the I.M.F. still expected growth in global output to hold steady at 3.2 percent in 2024. However, the closely watched projections included several caveats and warned that the global economy was in a “sticky spot.”Most notable were signs of weakness in the United States, which has helped power the global recovery from the pandemic. now expects the United States economy to grow more slowly than it did previously as a result of weaker consumer spending and a softening job market.

Organizations: International Monetary Fund Locations: States, United States

☆ I.M.F. Is Upbeat on China’s Growth but Questions Industrial Policy
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-28 | by ( Keith Bradsher | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Responding to China’s surging exports and extensive investments in new factories, the International Monetary Fund made sizable increases on Wednesday in how much it believes China’s economy will grow this year and next. now estimates that China will grow 5 percent this year and 4.5 percent in 2025. That is 0.4 percentage points more for each year compared with the fund’s predictions just six weeks ago. China’s gross domestic output expanded 5.2 percent last year as the economy rebounded following nearly three years of stringent pandemic policies that included numerous municipal lockdowns and mandatory quarantines. Many economists, including at the I.M.F., had anticipated that growth would falter this year because of a severe contraction of China’s housing market and a slowdown in domestic spending.

Organizations: International Monetary Fund Locations: China

☆ I.M.F. Sees Steady Growth but Warns of Rising Protectionism
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-16 | by ( Alan Rappeport | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The global economy is approaching a soft landing after several years of geopolitical and economic turmoil, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday. But it warned that risks remain, including stubborn inflation, the threat of escalating global conflicts and rising protectionism. In its latest World Economic Outlook report, the I.M.F. projected global output to hold steady at 3.2 percent in 2024, unchanged from 2023. The forecasts came as policymakers from around the world began arriving in Washington for the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

Organizations: International Monetary Fund, World Bank Locations: Ukraine, Washington

☆ Opinion | What Janet Yellen Needs to Tell China’s Leaders
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-03 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

It would be great if Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen had a copy of “The Portable Karl Marx” with her on her trip to China this week. China was “among the most unequal countries in the world” in 2018, another I.M.F. working paper released that year said. While Xi Jinping name-checks Marx, it’s clear from his behavior that what he really pursues is national greatness under the direction of the Chinese Communist Party. That’s more in line with Lenin, who believed that a “vanguard” party would lead the proletariat, than with Marx or Engels.

Persons: Janet Yellen, Karl Marx ”, Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping, ” Marx, Xi, Marx, it’s, Lenin, Engels Organizations: International Monetary Fund, Chinese Communist Party Locations: China, Brazil

☆ I.M.F. Agrees to Much Larger Rescue Package for Egypt
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( Nada Rashwan | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

The International Monetary Fund has agreed to more than double a bailout package for Egypt, which is going through its worst economic crisis in decades, exacerbated by war in the neighboring Gaza Strip and in Ukraine. The fund now plans to provide Egypt $8 billion, up from an initial $3 billion announced in October 2022. The I.M.F.’s mission chief to Egypt, Ivanna Vladkova Hollar, noted at a news conference that the already-struggling Egyptian economy had been further hurt by the conflict between Israel and Hamas, which has cut into the country’s vital tourism trade. At the same time, revenue from the Suez Canal dropped by half after Houthi militants, who say they are acting in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza, began attacking cargo ships using Red Sea shipping routes.

Persons: Ivanna Vladkova Hollar Organizations: Monetary Fund Locations: Egypt, Gaza, Ukraine, Israel, Suez

The world is starting 2024 on an optimistic economic note, as inflation fades globally and growth remains more resilient than many forecasters had expected. Yet one country stands out for its surprising strength: the United States. The question is why America has pulled out ahead of other developed economies in the pack. said this week that it expected the United States to grow 2.1 percent, a sharp upgrade from the previous estimate of 1.5 percent. The euro area is expected to notch out 0.9 percent growth, as is Japan, and the United Kingdom is forecast to expand by 0.6 percent.

Organizations: Federal Reserve, International Monetary Fund Locations: United States, Ukraine, U.S, United Kingdom, Germany, America, Japan

☆ Prospect of Prolonged Israel-Gaza War Adds Economic Havoc to Human Toll
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Liz Alderman | More About Liz Alderman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

That has concentrated the pool of recruits around people who make up the bulk of Israel’s entrepreneurial economic activity. Two credit ratings agencies this week warned that Israel’s debt could be downgraded. The Bank of Israel has about $200 billion in foreign exchange reserves — close to 40 percent of the country’s gross domestic product — which its governor, Amir Yaron, told I.M.F. and World Bank officials in a video call on Sunday provided ample capacity to support the economy. Since the conflict, the central bank has earmarked $30 billion in foreign exchange to support the shekel, which has fallen to an eight-year low.

Persons: ”, Ben, David, Moody’s, Fitch, Israel’s, Israel, Goldman Sachs, Amir Yaron, I.M.F Organizations: Bank of Israel, World Bank

Shares in Hong Kong and Shanghai closed lower again, but, unlike on Monday, the damage didn’t spread across Asia. China’s economy, the world’s second biggest, is in a prolonged slump. That poses a challenge for global growth. has previously forecast that China would account for 35 percent of global growth this year, but that’s looking less likely. The slowdown is hitting everything from commodities to construction, and some big U.S. companies that operate in China don’t expect a rapid turnaround.

Locations: China, Beijing, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Asia

Dentons, the largest Western law firm in China in terms of staff, said yesterday it would separate from Dacheng, its unit there. The two firms merged in 2015, and Dentons even added Chinese characters to its logo to signal its commitment to the country. That made it impossible to follow legal industry standards and best practice, a person familiar with Dentons’ decision-making told DealBook. “Standards are diverging between China and Western economies,” Eswar Prasad, a trade policy professor at Cornell and a former head of the I.M.F.’s China division, told DealBook. Employees at financial firms operating in China have reportedly been forced to attend lessons in the ideology of President Xi Jinping.

Persons: Dentons, DealBook, Eswar Prasad, “, Xi Jinping Organizations: Cornell Locations: China, Western, ’, Sequoia

Fed officials will release their July interest rate decision on Wednesday, followed by a news conference with Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair. Policymakers had previously forecast that they might raise rates one more time in 2023 beyond the expected move this week. It expects consumption, which has remained strong, to begin to wane in the coming months as Americans draw down their savings and interest rates increase further. On Thursday, the European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates for the 20 countries that use the euro currency to the highest level since 2000. But the economic outlook is still relatively weak, and some analysts expect that the European Central Bank is close to halting interest rate increases amid signs that its restrictive policy stance is weighing on economic growth.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell Organizations: European Central Bank Locations: United States, Germany

☆ Eurozone Inflation Slows, but Underlying Price Pressures Persist
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Patricia Cohen | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +4 min

Growth is expected to pick up, but further increases in interest rates could act as a brake on the economy. France’s annual inflation rate fell to 5.3 percent in June, from 6 percent in May. Germany, the largest economy in Europe, saw a rise in its annual inflation rate to 6.8 percent, up from 6.3 percent in May. Inflation rates in Germany are expected to resume their fall in September. After adjusting for inflation, profits were above their prepandemic level while workers’ compensation was 2 percent below the trend in the first quarter of this year.

Persons: Gita Gopinath, Christine Lagarde, ’, Giorgia, “, Lucrezia Reichlin, Riccardo Marcelli Fabiani, Price, Lagarde Organizations: International Monetary Fund, London Business School, Oxford Economics, Ukraine — Locations: Sintra , Portugal, France, Italy, Russia, Ukraine, Germany, Europe

☆ The U.S.-China Rivalry Is Complicating the World’s Debt Crisis
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( Peter S. Goodman | Adriana Loureiro Fernandez | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

and its most influential participant, the United States, also wanted something else: They were adamant that Chinese creditors restructure $545 million in debt — loans Suriname had used to build roads and housing. As scores of middle- and lower-income countries grapple with an intensifying debt crisis, assistance is often held up by conflict between traditionally dominant Western institutions and a significant rising player: China. Its financial institutions dispense loans accompanied by few demands, providing an alternative to the austerity prescribed by the I.M.F. and the Biden administration have balked at providing relief until Chinese financial institutions participate. Otherwise, they assert, Chinese lenders are free-riding on debt forgiveness extended by others.

Persons: —, Biden Organizations: International Monetary Fund, International Monetary Locations: Washington, Suriname, United States, China, Asia, Africa, Latin America

☆ Opinion | The Woman in Charge of Saving Turkey’s Economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-12 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

When all hope is lost, hire a woman to take over (and take blame). Studies of the so-called glass cliff have found that companies are more likely to bring women on as chief executives or directors when business is bad. Now there’s Hafize Gaye Erkan, a former Wall Street banker who has been named the new central bank governor of Turkey. It “has consistently supported Ukraine politically and militarily without alienating Russia economically,” Yevgeniya Gaber, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council in Turkey, wrote recently. Turkey also has the world’s 19th-largest economy, with a gross domestic product of nearly $1 trillion a year, according to the World Bank.

Persons: Linda Yaccarino, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Brad Setser, ”, “, Yevgeniya Organizations: Wall Street, Council, Foreign Relations, Central Bank of, NATO, Atlantic Council, World Bank, International Monetary Fund Locations: Turkey, Republic of Turkey, Ukraine, Russia

☆ Opinion | The Impossible Math of the Debt Deal’s Detractors
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

Even the cuts in the debt ceiling deal would be a mild retardant for economic growth. in 2021, compared with 115 percent for the United States, and Japan seems to be doing OK. (Those numbers are somewhat exaggerated because they include debt held by other parts of the government, not just debt held by the public.) At that point, an uncomfortably large portion of federal spending has to be devoted to paying interest on the debt. That brings up the second thing that’s wrong with the right wing’s condemnation of the debt ceiling deal. The drama around the debt ceiling deal, which is far from over, is intense because negotiators are trying to achieve something that is impossible.

☆ Opinion | China’s Lending Practices Are Not a Good Look
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

This is undoubtedly a factor in China’s diminished standing in the world. Playing ball really would promote “peace and development for all humanity” while winning China some badly needed friends in the world. The explanation for China’s tough stance is discouraging for the short term but possibly encouraging for the long term. But there are signs that China’s leaders will eventually come around to seeing the value of working with the I.M.F. “In more and more countries, Suriname and elsewhere, we’re starting to see more coordination between the People’s Bank of China, the I.M.F.

☆ How Russia Pays for War
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-30 | by ( Lazaro Gamio | Ana Swanson | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +17 min

Invasion –84% Imports from Russia –20% Germany Current total trade $4.8 billion Since invasion –3% Exports to Russia Avg. Invasion –51% Imports from Russia +38% The Netherlands Current total trade $2 billion Since invasion +32% Exports to Russia Avg. Invasion –52% Imports from Russia +74% China Current total trade $15 billion Since invasion +64% Exports to Russia Avg. Invasion +24% Imports from Russia +98% India Current total trade $3.3 billion Since invasion +310% Exports to Russia Avg. Invasion –19% Imports from Russia +430% Turkey Current total trade $6.2 billion Since invasion +198% Exports to Russia Avg.

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