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☆ Imagine a better climate pact than COP
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

It’s possible to imagine an alternative, better way to fight climate change. The snag is that China or the United States – which were responsible for 25% and 11% of greenhouse gases, respectively, in 2021 – would have to take the lead. All countries agreed to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times and to aim for 1.5 degrees. That’s the thinking behind the Just Energy Transition Partnerships that the United States and its allies have cut with Indonesia, Vietnam and South Africa. For example, Donald Trump, who as president pulled the United States out of the Paris Agreement, may return to the White House after next year’s elections.

Persons: Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Donald Trump, Peter Thal Larsen, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, of, UN, United, Rio Earth Summit, European, Reuters Graphics Reuters, China, African, Initiative, World Bank, Thomson Locations: Nations, Dubai, China, United States, Paris, U.S, Washington, Beijing, European Union, Japan, Canada, South Korea, United Kingdom, Russia, Russian, Xi Jinping . Washington, India, Brazil, Indonesia, African Union, Vietnam, South Africa

☆ EU is ill-equipped to meet growing global threats
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The snag is that EU countries are ever more reluctant to give up their right to block collective actions. Meanwhile, rivalry between the United States and China – and a green subsidy race between the world's two largest economies – is undermining the world trading system. The response of EU countries to the Gaza conflict has also been shambolic, both individually and collectively. Yet EU countries are also grappling with nationalistic currents, the latest demonstration of which is last week’s election victory by Geert Wilders, the Dutch politician who has long campaigned on an anti-immigrant and anti-EU ticket. But it is not clear that EU countries want to find a way to speed up collective decision-making.

Persons: Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, Geert Wilders, Olivier Costa, Jan Zielonka, Erik Jones, keener, Annalena, Shahin Vallée, Peter Thal Larsen, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, European, NATO, EU, United Nations General Assembly, Franco, Britain, IF, College of Europe, Oxford University, European University Institute, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, United States, China, EU, People's Republic, Gaza, Dutch, Washington, Beijing, Germany, France, Denmark, United Kingdom, Berlin, Franco, Russia

☆ World Bank and kin head for a $100 bln cash call
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

World Bank President Ajay Banga arrives for a signing ceremony with Thailand to host the 2026 International Monetary Fund and the World Bank annual meetings on the last day of this year's meeting, following last month's deadly earthquake, in Marrakech, Morocco, October 15, 2023. REUTERS/Susana Vera Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 20 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The World Bank and its fellow institutions are heading for a cash call. The World Bank and its regional peers, such as the African Development Bank and the Asian Development Bank, are well placed to help developing countries craft strategies to develop in a green way. Donald Trump may seem an unlikely supporter of the World Bank if he wins. The People’s Republic, for its part, will want to increase its stake in the World Bank as part of any capital increase.

Persons: Ajay Banga, Susana Vera, Fitch don’t, Chris Humphrey, Janet Yellen, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, There’s, David Cameron, Peter Thal Larsen, Thomas Shum Organizations: Monetary Fund, World Bank, REUTERS, Reuters, African Development Bank, Asian Development Bank, Group, FIRST, AAA, Bank, Moody’s, European Bank for Reconstruction, U.S, Thomson Locations: Thailand, Marrakech, Morocco, Washington, United States, China, Britain, Ukraine, U.S, Israel, Republic, United Kingdom, France

☆ The West could live with a frozen Ukraine conflict
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Ukraine may be heading for a similarly frozen conflict with Russia. So a frozen conflict would help the West achieve – at least partly – its key geostrategic aim: to show hostile powers that it doesn’t pay to invade one of its friends. In a frozen conflict, Ukraine would still need to invest heavily in massive fortifications, anti-missile defence systems and technology to deter Russian attacks. ECONOMIC WARIn a frozen conflict, sanctions against Russia would probably remain more or less in place. REBUILDING UKRAINEIt will be harder to rebuild Ukraine’s infrastructure in a frozen conflict than if there was peace.

Persons: Nuzhnenko, Vladimir Putin, Putin, Valery Zaluzhny, Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Tim Ash, Peter Thal Larsen, Thomas Shum Organizations: Ukraine's National Guard Omega, Radio Free, Radio Liberty, REUTERS Acquire, Reuters, Moscow, Hamas, U.S, EU, International Monetary Fund, Kremlin, Investors, BlueBay Asset Management, Soviet, Cyprus, European Commission, West, Thomson Locations: Avdiivka, Ukraine, Donetsk region, Radio Free Europe, Korea, Cyprus, Russia, Kyiv, –, Israel, United States, Moscow, North Korea, Iran, Russian, UKRAINE, West Germany, Soviet Union

☆ High bond yields challenge “Pax Americana”
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

There are also many reasons why “Pax Americana” – the period of U.S. dominance since World War Two - is under stress. The combination of high bond yields with a large fiscal deficit and rising sovereign debt is making it harder for politicians to govern the country. If anything, they may have a tougher job to make their fiscal maths add up than the United States because their growth prospects are not as rosy. What’s more, the near-record yield gap with the United States is bringing its own headaches by putting downward pressure on the yuan. These are consolations for the United States as it grapples with the geopolitical consequences of high interest rates.

Persons: Joe Biden, Kevin Lamarque, Joe Biden’s, doesn’t, Liz Truss, haven’t, Paul Tucker, “, Fitch, Peter Thal Larsen, Thomas Shum Organizations: Air Force, Joint Base Andrews, REUTERS, Reuters, Federal Reserve, International Monetary Fund, Bank of England, AAA, AA, United, Bank for International, Initiative, Thomson Locations: Lewiston , Maine, Joint Base Andrews , Maryland, U.S, Israel, Ukraine, China, United States, Europe, Asia, Russia, Britain, Washington, Republic

☆ Israel war tests US appeal to global swing states
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-30 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

FOURNI, Greece, Oct 30 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Joe Biden has sought to portray the United States as a superpower that cares about the rule of law. What’s more, swing states – which back neither the United States nor China – have more power than they did during the old Cold War between the West and the Soviet Union. Such pressure may convince some countries that the United States is pursuing a principles-based foreign policy in the Gaza conflict. The Israeli war may last a long time and its aftermath may be tortuous. But it could also have an important impact on the United States’ influence with swing states and its struggle with China.

Persons: Joe Biden, Vladimir Putin’s, Xi Jinping’s, Barack Obama, Republic –, Biden, Queen Rania, Jordan, Israel, Jake Sullivan, Israel –, Tayyip Erdogan, Benjamin Netanyahu, Mustafa Kamal Kazi, Netanyahu, What’s, Jonathan Cohen, Peter Thal Larsen, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Russian, U.S, Israel, United Nations General, Washington, UN Security Council, Security Council, Soviet Union, Members, United, Reuters Graphics Reuters, U.S . National Security, U.S ., West Bank, Thomson Locations: FOURNI, Greece, United States, Russia, China, Ukraine, Taiwan, Gaza, Israel, Republic, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, U.S, Moscow, Soviet, India, Brazil, wean, Turkey, NATO, South Africa, Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistani, Egypt, Israeli

☆ Time is ripe for another push on carbon pricing
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-24 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Other technologies, such as green hydrogen and carbon capture, are still a long way from maturity. Around 50 countries have some form of carbon price, double the number 10 years ago, and another 23 countries are planning to introduce one. The snag is that China’s carbon price is low and the United States doesn’t have a federal levy. Others argue that governments should combine carbon pricing with financial support for the most vulnerable and targeted subsidies for fledgling technologies. To hit climate targets, the carbon price would need to be $135 a tonne in advanced economies and $45 a tonne in large emerging ones by 2030.

Persons: Jin Mao, Aly, Joe Biden’s, There’s, Rishi Sunak, Michael Jacobs, it’s, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic, Thomas Shum Organizations: Financial, REUTERS, Reuters, International Energy Agency, European Union, Global, International Monetary Fund, Reuters Graphics Reuters, British, Pew Research, University of Sheffield, IMF, Africa Climate, United, European, Climate Leadership Council, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, Pudong, China, United States, Paris, Africa, European Union, U.S

☆ US grand strategy can prop up the global order
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-16 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

But the United States can prevent the rules-based order from collapsing if it keeps steering a steady course with regards to Russia and China. If the United States holds firm on its grand strategy, any new geopolitical risks should be similarly contained. One explanation for the current outbreak of crises is that the United States is weaker and more internally divided than it was during the so-called “Pax Americana” era. It could easily drop down the United States’ list of priorities, says Michel Duclos, a former French diplomat who is a fellow at the Paris-based Institut Montaigne. He will struggle to unite the U.S.’s allies as he is not a champion of either the NATO military alliance or the rules-based global order.

Persons: Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Mike Segar, Vladimir Putin, –, Biden, David Hannay, Benjamin Netanyahu’s, ”, Jake Sullivan, Michel Duclos, Putin, ’, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic, Thomas Shum Organizations: Democratic, Belmont University, REUTERS, Reuters, U.S, Reuters Graphics Reuters, United Nations Charter, –, Montaigne, Kyiv, Trump, NATO, Thomson Locations: coronavirus, Nashville , Tennessee, U.S, Israel, Gaza, United States, Russia, China, Ukraine, Afghanistan, Korea, Vietnam, Soviet, Soviet Union, Iraq, Washington, China’s, Taiwan, Africa, Azerbaijan, Europe, Asia, India, Saudi Arabia, French, Paris, Beijing, Japan, South Korea

☆ The EU is stuck with its one-trick refugee policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-09 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Barring an influx of younger people from Africa and Asia, the EU will become increasingly old, weak and irrelevant. Instead, the EU is focussing on stopping irregular migrants crossing the Mediterranean. To be fair, each EU country has procedures for dealing with migrants who arrive through legal routes. That’s a long way short of the height of the Syrian crisis in 2015, when about 1.8 million refugees crossed EU borders. The hope is that the Mediterranean countries will then process asylum seekers when they arrive - and the EU’s internal borders will stay open.

Persons: Giorgia Meloni, Marine Le, Italy don’t, Martinez, Peter Thal Larsen, Katrina Hamlin, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Eurostat, EU, Reuters Graphics, Italian, Centre, European, Bank, Thomson Locations: Africa, Asia, EU, Spain, Europe, Turkey, Libya, Tunisia, Egypt, Lampedusa, Tunis, West Balkan, United Kingdom, That’s, Germany, Austria, Poland, Italy, Hungary, Saharan Africa, Latin America

☆ Peak China may pose peak danger
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

For example, last week it installed a floating barrier by a rocky outcrop in the South China Sea claimed by the Philippines - which Manila promptly removed. A war between the United States and China still seems unlikely - because both sides know that the economic and human costs of a clash could be catastrophic. The United States and its Western allies are also worried that China could browbeat Japan and South Korea, two nations economically important to them. Meanwhile, the United States and other allies are imposing controls on the export of technology such as advanced chips to the People’s Republic. What’s more, the United States is finding it hard to maintain an emollient message.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping “, Biden, Victor Sebestyen, Xi, Michael Beckley, Beckley, Hal Brands, Vladimir Putin, ”, Donald Trump, Goldman Sachs, Tufts ’ Beckley, Una Galani, Streisand Neto Organizations: People's Bank of China, REUTERS, Reuters, Austro, South China, Beijing, Tufts University, Washington, San, Economic Cooperation, Tufts, Thomson Locations: Beijing, CHINA, Greece, China, Vietnam, U.S, Taiwan, United States, Germany, France, British, Ottoman Empire, Hungarian Empire, Ukraine, South China, South, Philippines, Manila, China’s, India, People’s Republic, Japan, South Korea, America, Pacific, Washington, Hanoi, San Francisco, Asia, Taiwan Strait

☆ Western rival to Belt and Road has much to prove
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

LONDON, Sept 25 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Western countries have a window of opportunity to come up with a credible infrastructure plan for the developing world. U.S. President Joe Biden has been talking up the West’s so-called Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII). To be fair, the G7 is stepping up efforts to involve the private sector. These initiatives are running in parallel with efforts to get the World Bank to cooperate more with the private sector. For developing countries, it is good to have two rival infrastructure initiatives competing for their attention.

Persons: Joe Biden, PGII, marshall, It’s, Hung Tran, Janet Yellen, Antony Blinken, Jordan, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, Peter Thal Larsen, Katrina Hamlin Organizations: Reuters, Initiative, Group, Democratic, Global Infrastructure, Investment, Atlantic Council, coy, Treasury, European, Bank, United Arab, China, Thomson Locations: Italy, Republic, India, Europe, Zambia, Angola, Democratic Republic of Congo, Indonesia, Vietnam, South Africa, Senegal, United States, China, East, New Delhi, Indonesian, New York, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Beijing

☆ Less ethical US foreign policy requires new logic
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and rising tensions with China are now driving U.S. foreign policy, and ethical considerations have taken a back seat. Even so, groups such as Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch are concerned. But the United States considers all to have poor records when judged against the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. While it may make sense for the United States to choose the lesser evil, it is now unclear what role human rights play in American foreign policy. Although he didn’t connect this idea to human rights, that seems to be part of the thinking.

Persons: Narendra Modi, Joe Biden, Evan Vucci, Biden, Antony Blinken, ”, Modi, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Blinken, It’s, Peter Thal Larsen, Thomas Shum Organizations: Indian, U.S, Bharat, REUTERS Acquire, Reuters, Amnesty, Human Rights, U.S ., Saudi Crown, Universal, United, United States, Reuters Graphics, Seven, Washington, Thomson Locations: New Delhi, India, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, China, Asia, Beijing, Moscow, U.S, Hanoi, United States, Riyadh, Russia, United, East, Europe, Afghanistan, Iraq

☆ Time to target fossil fuel demand, not supply
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Campaigners are, of course, right that the world needs to cut its use of fossil fuels. But focussing on curbing supply is not as effective as pushing for measures that cut demand - such as carbon taxes, faster permissioning of renewable energy and green subsidies. International climate negotiators are also wrangling over whether to “phase down” fossil fuels. Demand for fossil fuels will fall if they are more expensive - and economies will have a strong incentive to switch to renewable energy. Regulation is another method for driving down demand for fossil fuels.

Persons: Ajay Banga, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Narendra Modi, Cyril Ramaphosa, Joe Biden, Evan Vucci, wouldn’t, George Hay, Thomas Shum Organizations: World, Indian, REUTERS Acquire, Reuters, OPEC, European Union, EU, Thomson Locations: New Delhi, India, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Nations, Canada, United States, OPEC, China, U.S, United Kingdom, EU

☆ The G7 is least bad group for a troubled world
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-04 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

In this troubled world, the Group of Seven rich democracies is the best bet for keeping the peace and protecting the planet. The Group of 20 large economies and the United Nations, both of which hold summits this month, are broken. India and Brazil may also be out of place in an expanded group which China seems to be dominating. G7 BY DEFAULTThat leaves the G7, which brings together the U.S., Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Italy and Canada. But to see off challenges from other groups, the G7 needs a more ambitious offer for the Global South.

Persons: Joe Biden, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Vladimir Putin, Lehman Brothers, Narendra Modi, What’s, Putin won’t, Xi Jinping, haven’t, Donald Trump’s, Joe Biden’s, Putin, Peter Thal Larsen, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, U.S, United Nations, UN, Security, Lehman, Indian, United, International Monetary Fund, Freedom House, U.S ., American, European Union, Global, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Hiroshima, Japan, China, U.S, Soviet Union, Russia, United Kingdom, France, New Delhi, India, loggerheads, Brazil, South Africa, Argentina, Ethiopia, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, UAE, Mexico, Indonesia, Turkey, Thailand, Nigeria, Vietnam, Malaysia, Philippines, Bangladesh, Germany, Italy, Canada, Iraq, Britain, Europe, Asia, South Korea, Australia

☆ The BRICS are better off disbanding than expanding
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-31 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

(South Africa wasn’t on his list.) O’Neill likes to tease the BRICS that their economic performance subsequently went downhill - particularly after the much smaller South Africa joined in 2011. Since then, Russia, Brazil and South Africa have all struggled economically. The fault line between India and China, which fought a small war in the Himalayas in 2020, is one reason the BRICS club has done so little. Besides, most developing countries don’t want to be forced to choose sides in a showdown with the United States.

Persons: Jim O’Neill, Goldman Sachs, O’Neill, Vladimir Putin, Peter Thal Larsen, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Africa wasn’t, Reuters Graphics Reuters, New Development Bank, Bank, Global, U.S ., Thomson Locations: TINOS, GREECE, Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Johannesburg, Africa, Africa’s, Saudi Arabia, Argentina, Egypt, Iran, Cuba, Kazakhstan, United States, Iraq, Republic, Ukraine, Russian, New Delhi, Soviet, Philippines, Mexico, Indonesia, Thailand, Nigeria, Vietnam, Malaysia, Bangladesh

☆ Robin Hood tariff could curb airline emissions
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Nevertheless, aircraft are responsible for about 4% of global warming from carbon emissions and the vapour trails they leave behind in the sky. A more viable short-term option is to run planes on sustainable aviation fuels (SAF). The third option is to tax either the kerosene that airlines burn or the emissions they spew out into the atmosphere. So far only the EU, United Kingdom and some smaller countries are doing this via emissions trading schemes (ETS). To work, the plan would need to channel Robin Hood, the legendary English outlaw who stole from the rich to give to the poor.

Persons: Emmanuel Macron, Robin Hood, Peter Thal Larsen, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Aviation, Reuters Graphics Reuters, SAF, European Union, EU, Transport, FLYERS, International Civil Aviation Organisation, United Nations, ICAO, ETS, Airlines, Council, Clean Transportation, Thomson Locations: TINOS, GREECE, Europe, America, China, Greece, United Kingdom, United States

☆ Old Cold War tool could help in new era of tension
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The United States may soon expand its export controls to cover semiconductors used in artificial intelligence and access to cloud computing. The People’s Republic has responded with tit-for-tat export controls on gallium and germanium, two strategic metals used in chips and other technologies where it has a dominant position. This is what the U.S. and its allies did during the last Cold War, when they established the Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export Controls (CoCom). The United States’ subsidies for green technologies via its Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) caused tension with its allies. Its premier, Li Qiang, travelled to Germany last month hoping to persuade it not to row in behind the United States.

Persons: Joe Biden, Hung Tran, Li Qiang, –, Biden, Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Frances Burwell, Canada –, George Hay, Oliver Taslic, Pranav Kiran Organizations: Reuters, NATO, Soviet, Atlantic Council, Reuters Graphics Reuters, European Union, Multilateral Export Controls, United, Republican, Florida, EU, U.S, U.S . Trade, Technology Council, Twitter, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, China, Republic, U.S, Netherlands, Japan, States, United States, People’s Republic, Germany, Beijing, ’, Russia, Britain, Canada, Australia, South Korea

☆ How to crack the climate free rider problem
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-10 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

For example, the United States, China and Europe are engaged in a green subsidy race that is driving down the cost of clean technology. Extending such a scheme to the members of a G7-led climate club is tricky. Without a big carrot and a big stick, though, the climate club will be a low-key affair. And if Biden wins re-election next year, the prospects of a more ambitious G7 climate club and cooperating with China would improve. Either – or both – would go a long way to solving the climate free rider problem.

Persons: Don’t, It’s, William Nordhaus, –, Isabel Hilton, Adair Turner, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Biden, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, ”, Reuters Graphics Reuters, European Union, Bank, Trade, United, Economic Co, Development, U.S, Energy, Commission, White, Thomson Locations: United States, Canada, Beijing, China, Europe, India, Vietnam, Washington, Argentina, Indonesia, Republic

☆ Weaker China offers opportunities to US and allies
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

It is also a setback for his most important ally, Chinese President Xi Jinping. So the United States and its allies can’t let their guard down. In 2021 the United States chaotically pulled out of Afghanistan and its alliance of rich democracies was in disarray. It seemed only a matter of time before China would overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy. At some point, the Chinese president may conclude that the Russian president is such a loser that he should do just that.

Persons: Vladimir Putin hasn’t, Xi Jinping, can’t, United States chaotically, Xi’s, Putin, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Narendra Modi, Joe Biden, George Magnus, Antony Blinken, Biden can’t, Peter Thal Larsen, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, PUTIN, Russia, U.S, Shanghai Stock, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: Russian, China, Taiwan, United States, Afghanistan, Russia, Ukraine, Moscow, Pacific, India, America, U.S, Kyiv

☆ Europe has more Russian lessons to learn
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The EU also isn’t remotely as threatening as China or even the United States, not to mention Russia. Over the same period, China’s share has risen to 18% from 7%, while the United States has stayed flat at 24%. The United States will carry most of the burden of deterring China. SECOND-BEST SOLUTIONSThe best solution to the EU’s lack of unity would be for it to use majority voting to determine foreign policy - as it already does for economic policy. But neither the EU nor its members should kid themselves that it’s in their interests to break with the United States.

Persons: Vladimir Putin, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Putin, Joe Biden’s, “, Emmanuel Macron, Donald Trump, Peter Thal Larsen, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, EU, Companies, U.S, Eurostat, Reuters Graphics, Trade, European Commission, Twitter, Thomson Locations: Brussels, Ukraine, Russia, EU, China, United States, Russian, Kyiv, Germany, France, Poland, Taiwan, Lithuania, People’s Republic, U.S, Spain, Europe, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, Canada

☆ Shipping tax could yield $100 bln climate windfall
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-12 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

TINOS, June 12 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The shipping industry emits 2.9% of the world's greenhouse gases. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsPOLLUTER PAYSThe shipping industry uses fossil fuels to power its boats. That said, industry leaders such as container giant Maersk (MAERSKb.CO) are moving into green shipping. This potentially large sum is attracting the attention of people outside the shipping industry, especially those focused on climate change. If a country refused to apply an agreed tax, the international shipping industry would effectively be unable to operate from its ports.

Persons: TINOS, Emmanuel Macron’s, Tristan Smith, Marshall, UCL’s Smith, Al Qaeda, Peter Thal Larsen, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, International Maritime Organisation, United Nations, European Union, EU, Reuters Graphics Reuters, University College London, Shipping, Climate Fund, World Bank, International Chamber of Shipping, Marshall, Al, Trade Center, Thomson Locations: Paris, Danish, Marshall

☆ Greece’s reform labours are only half complete
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Greece’s large current account deficit and domestic corruption undermine its attraction as an investment destination. The issue, rather, is whether Greece will be able to attract investment in the quantities needed for it to fulfil its potential. What’s more, investment is still only 14% of national income, even though this measure expanded during Mitsotakis’ first term as prime minister. Well-designed tax and benefit reforms could even reduce the country’s unemployment rate, which is currently 12%, thereby increasing its productive potential. All this would provide a buffer if Greece or the world economy is hit by further shocks in coming years.

Persons: Hercules, Mitsotakis, Bruegel, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, Union, International Monetary Fund, Bank of, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: ATHENS, Greece, Mitsotakis ’, Bank of Greece, Mitsotakis

☆ How US allies can mitigate Trump 2.0
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

LONDON, May 29 (Reuters Breakingviews) - A return to the White House by Donald Trump would create challenges for the world’s other rich democracies. TRUMP IN POLYCRISISBiden has painstakingly created a consensus with his core allies since Putin invaded Ukraine last year. PREPARE FOR THE WORSTThe world’s other rich democracies - call them the G6 - cannot change the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. Politicians in other rich democracies can also try to persuade Republican leaders that now is not the time to abandon Kyiv. If other rich democracies adopt a vigorous mitigation strategy now, they’ll be better prepared if Trump does return.

☆ Strongmen are riskier the more they stay in power
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The longer authoritarian leaders stay in power, the greater the risk they will make decisions that damage their economies. For example, the Turkish stock market rose nine-fold in dollar terms during Erdogan’s first decade in charge. Similarly, the Russian stock market rose five-fold in dollar terms during Putin's first 14 years in the Kremlin. Xi’s zero-Covid policy meant the Chinese economy had a bad year in 2022 when the rest of the world was rebounding. In the last nine years, the stock market has lost nearly 20% of its value in dollar terms.

☆ Rich world has three ways to win over global South
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Another reason to care about developing countries is that their actions will help determine whether the planet fries. Even rich democracies in temperate regions will feel the consequences, mainly in the form of mass migration unlike anything they have yet experienced. THREE P’SThe rich democracies’ goal should not be to pull the global South into their camp in advance of a possible clash with China. When it comes to promoting prosperity, rich democracies are similarly vulnerable to accusations of double standards. As one developing world observer told former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers: “When we’re engaged with the Chinese, we get an airport.

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